What would a $50K new Mooney require

[aviatoreb]

This:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000005038741/where-its-made-a-ford-car-in-china-factory.html?hp&clickSource=story-heading&WT.nav=top-news&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=VideoThumb&region=AColumn

[1964-M20E]

I've always said that the airplane manufacturers M,B, P etc. need to get together and utilize a factory like that to make air frame parts.  Reduced human labor in the riveting, painting, welding process and then assembly.   Pipe dream I know but then maybe you could get the cost of a 4 place single down to the $250k range.   Not saying they would sell like hot cakes but sales would increase.

However it would take cooperation between the manufactures to utilize a factory to it fullest capacity to justify the investment and make it cost effective.  A single manufacture cannot do it alone.

 

 

[aviatoreb]

2 minutes ago, 1964-M20E said:

I've always said that the airplane manufacturers M,B, P etc. need to get together and utilize a factory like that to make air frame parts.  Reduced human labor in the riveting, painting, welding process and then assembly.   Pipe dream I know but then maybe you could get the cost of a 4 place single down to the $250k range.   Not saying they would sell like hot cakes but sales would increase.

However it would take cooperation between the manufactures to utilize a factory to it fullest capacity to justify the investment and make it cost effective.  A single manufacture cannot do it alone.

Good point - it would take a consortium entity, umbrella over the current main small aircraft brands, to even maybe afford some major automation.

[Jerry 5TJ]

You could sell the dream of a $100K aircraft, use investor funds to acquire the tooling, finish certification and get all set up for production, then wipe out the unsustainable debt load via Chapter 7 and begin anew.

Examples abound: Think of the Motorola Iridium global satellite system, a  $7B operating system acquired at bankruptcy for under $50M and fourishing today.  

Eclipse Jet erased close to a billion in venture funding (and buyer deposits) before it became at all viable.    

Closer to home:  Think how many times Mooney assets have been acquired at fire-sale prices in the last half century.

Don't let mere fiscal solvency stand in your way:  Build that 21st century plane!  Future pilots, if not today's investors, will hail you as the Al Mooney of their parents' generation.  

 

 

 

[Wildhorsesracing]

Unfortunately I don't see conventional aircraft as the future of GA - I think you'll find more and more semi autonomous air vehicles like personal drones take to the skies so that the average person can fly them and the software/hardware saves them from studying the FARs.  The days of learning hours and hours of regulations are going away when the equipment can be taught to keep the craft in safe airspace and ADS-B keeps them separated.  Cars today already have the ability to brake and park for you, it's not going to be long before drone like aircraft will do the same thing.

Chinese Personal Drone

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

This:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000005038741/where-its-made-a-ford-car-in-china-factory.html?hp&clickSource=story-heading&WT.nav=top-news&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=VideoThumb&region=AColumn

Sadly I don't think the UAW union would ever let that happen here.

[aviatoreb]

Just now, LANCECASPER said:

Sadly I don't think the UAW union would ever let that happen here.

During WWII, as we all know, Detroit was building airplanes, tanks, etc.  Thank you Rosie the Riveter.

[AndyFromCB]

50 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

Sadly I don't think the UAW union would ever let that happen here.

Let what happen here? 

[LANCECASPER]

9 minutes ago, AndyFromCB said:

Let what happen here? 

That much automation and that few workers

[AndyFromCB]

10 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

That much automation and that few workers

Actually the current level of automation in US auto factories is even higher than what is shown in this video due to much higher labor cost here in US and Canada. I've been to the Oakville plant and 7/10th of the floor space has no apparent humans on it. We make twice as many cars as we did in 1980s with 1/4 the workforce now and that's 1/4 across the entire supply chain not just auto workers. UAW has no power anymore.

Edited May 12, 2017 by AndyFromCB

[Guest]

8 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Good point - it would take a consortium entity, umbrella over the current main small aircraft brands, to even maybe afford some major automation.

Textron Aviation is already buying up some brands, Chinese interests are buying the rest.

Clarence

 

[RobertGary1]

The day will come. Mark my words that we reduce nearly all hands on labor in manufacturing. Then you can bring manufacturing back to the US and save the transportation cost of overseas assembly. Employ people to keep the machines working. Apple is investing in US manufacturing again but don't expect to see any assembly line workers. More like Tesla style. Testla is building cars in the most expensive labor market on the planet!

 

-Robert

[aviatoreb]

Assembly in factories is a temporary blip in history.  Imagine 3d printing (or some technology more sophisticated but derivative) where raw materials go in one end of the machine, and a complete Mooney - or Ford Pinto - or a TV set - dishwasher - backhoe - garage door opener - hospital MRI machine - or whatever you want - comes out the other side fully assembled and functional ready to operate.  Will this be in 20 years, 50 years, 200 years?  I just cannot imagine that in 200 years we will still have people, or even robots, toiling away in factories any more than we no longer have "computer" as a job description for a human to fill.  (If you saw the movie "Hidden figures" you will remember that "computer" was a job description at NASA where a big list of numbers would be presented to a person who would add them all up).

[Tom]

On 5/12/2017 at 3:30 PM, 1964-M20E said:

I've always said that the airplane manufacturers M,B, P etc. need to get together and utilize a factory like that to make air frame parts.  Reduced human labor in the riveting, painting, welding process and then assembly.   Pipe dream I know but then maybe you could get the cost of a 4 place single down to the $250k range.   Not saying they would sell like hot cakes but sales would increase.

However it would take cooperation between the manufactures to utilize a factory to it fullest capacity to justify the investment and make it cost effective.  A single manufacture cannot do it alone.

It's not a pipe dream.  Vans has kit components built in the Philippines and then has these components shipped to the US then on to kit buyers in the US.  Today, quasi-legally, you can buy a fast-built RV-10 kit and have it built for around 250-300k with a new engine/panel. 
 

[Tom]

,

 

 

Edited May 13, 2017 by Tom

[Guest]

Vans price list.

 

[aviatoreb]

35 minutes ago, M20Doc said:

Vans price list.

 

Well there we go - we can reverse engineer the manufacture cost in this model.  With the RV10 closest to a Mooney - quick build at $60k.  Not incl lots of stuff, but most important, avionics and engine.  How much time also in a factory setting then would that cost to assemble complete if rules allowed?  So what - are we up to $120k for engine and avionics, and $20k for the other stuff....whatever stuff is - leather and paint?  So 200k.  50k for assembly.  250k for a fully assembled airplane.

But as certified, then there would be certification costs that need to be built in plus insurance which is a lot.  I bet then double the price. 500k is rock bottom for an airplane even with some automation.

[KSMooniac]

Cessna bought the Columbia line for pennies on the dollar, but it didn't result in lower prices after they put it back into production. (Much of that is their own fault though)

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[KSMooniac]

Assembly in factories is a temporary blip in history.  SNIP  I just cannot imagine that in 200 years we will still have people, or even robots, toiling away in factories any more than we no longer have "computer" as a job description for a human to fill. 

I heard an interesting interview this week of an author writing about the future when most jobs are obsolete due to technological advancements...especially manufacturing. His book is
Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow

and it sounds fascinating. Part of the conversation went into the debate about what happens when people no longer have any economic value...no useful skills or means to make a living like we know today. I'm not sure how the economy works at that point!

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[Hank]

20 minutes ago, KSMooniac said:

 

I heard an interesting interview this week of an author writing about the future when most jobs are obsolete due to technological advancements...especially manufacturing. His book is
Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow

and it sounds fascinating. Part of the conversation went into the debate about what happens when people no longer have any economic value...no useful skills or means to make a living like we know today. I'm not sure how the economy works at that point!

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk
 

 

Reminds me of a book I read once, high school or college time frame, where the highest paid people were hair stylists. Because everyone's head is a slightly different size and shape, and hair grows in different directions even on a single head, that job couldn't be automated as had happened to most of the rest. That's about the only thing I remember other than the world was very, very crowded.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

Well there we go - we can reverse engineer the manufacture cost in this model.  With the RV10 closest to a Mooney - quick build at $60k.  Not incl lots of stuff, but most important, avionics and engine.  How much time also in a factory setting then would that cost to assemble complete if rules allowed?  So what - are we up to $120k for engine and avionics, and $20k for the other stuff....whatever stuff is - leather and paint?  So 200k.  50k for assembly.  250k for a fully assembled airplane.

But as certified, then there would be certification costs that need to be built in plus insurance which is a lot.  I bet then double the price. 500k is rock bottom for an airplane even with some automation.

To add to that here are other prices.

 

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, M20Doc said:

To add to that here are other prices.

 

I forgot - everything experimental is cheaper / even the engine abd prop etc.  but in a certified airplane the costs would be more like I said.

wow those engines are new like the cost of an overhaul on a certified.  Remind me again why I like certified?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

I forgot - everything experimental is cheaper / even the engine abd prop etc.  but in a certified airplane the costs would be more like I said.

wow those engines are new like the cost of an overhaul on a certified.  Remind me again why I like certified?

You can bet that everyone of those is built on the same line with the same parts.  I can't believe that Vans gets a better deal than any other OEM.

Clarence

[Tom]

Vans is an OEM.

The Part 23 re-write that did occur would allow the RV-10 to be certified relatively easily.

Today you can have a shop build your RV-10 for you.  I think the going price is still less than 300k, all-in, with new engine and glass panel.

A new C-172 runs $350-375k.

A new C-182 runs $500k, cruises at 145kts.

RV-10 cruises at 165kts in a larger cabin, shorter T/O landing distances than the 182, and with a higher service ceiling.

If I were current Mooney management, I'd buy the RV-10, certify it under the new 23 standard, keep the Philippines operation going, then do final assembly in Kerrville.  This plane would absolutely own the 4-place new aircraft market.  With economy of scale considerations, it should be very feasible to sell a new RV-10 for less than a new C-172.

This has nothing to do with love of the RV-10, or disrespect for the M20, but rather non-emotional appraisal of the market. 

Off-topic:
For those who are interested in what happens when the humans are no longer needed for the production of goods and services (and/or when we have sufficient production capacity such that there is a surplus of human labor), the general term for this is the post-scarcity economy.  Fascinating and controversial topic. Some argue that we are already in it...that this is the root cause of modern voodoo economics that purports to allow for the accumulation of wealth where, in reality, only the perception of wealth is created...

 

[aviatoreb]

True - the Vans engines come off the same assembly line and are identical to those that don't except for that all important and expensive paperwork that says its certified.  If a Vans such as the RV10 went certified, then those parts like engines and avionics would need to be purchased at the much higher certified rates.