GA: Let's talk stats

[201er]

The 2011 Nall report for 2010 GA accidents found that "a total of 420 individuals were killed in the 245 fatal accidents." It certainly is unfortunate and I think we would all hope to get this number down to as close to none as possible. But to put things into perspective, here are some other things that are more likely to kill the average GA pilot than an airplane (based on 2010 CDC stats):

 

Tuberculosis - 569 deaths
Hepatatis - 7,564
HIV - 8,369
Malnutrition - 2,790
Meningitis - 608
Hernia - 1,832
Motor Vehicle Accidents - 35,332
Water, air, and space accidents - 1,029 (420 were in GA)
Accidental discharge of firearm - 606
Accidental drowning - 3,782
Falls - 26,009
Homicide - 16,259
Drug Induced Death - 40,393
Alcohol Induced Death - 25,692

 

In other words you are more likely to shoot yourself to death playing with your gun than with your plane. You have a better chance at surviving an airplane accident than disease you might pick up from a hooker. You are far more likely to drown at the beach, in the pool, or in your own tub. And for those of you whose wives complain that your mooney is more costly than a drug addiction, you are nearly 100 times less likely to die of it as a result.

 

Note: Since I know some of you are inevitably gonna get your panties all tied up in a knot about the lack of scientific correlation between number of hours flown and exposures to risk... I know. Just some things to think about. My point is that if you eat healthy, stay away from bad stuff, don't piss people enough to kill you, and otherwise live a fulfilling life, the chances you are taking by enjoying your favorite hobby (even to the max extent) are far outweighed by other things that can bring it to an early termination. So fly safe, be responsible, and enjoy.

[pirate]

Great job!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Marauder]

Note: Since I know some of you are inevitably gonna get your panties all tied up in a knot about the lack of scientific correlation between number of hours flown and exposures to risk... I know. Just some things to think about. My point is that if you eat healthy, stay away from bad stuff, don't piss people enough to kill you, and otherwise live a fulfilling life, the chances you are taking by enjoying your favorite hobby (even to the max extent) are far outweighed by other things that can bring it to an early termination. So fly safe, be responsible, and enjoy.

I like your optimism. Unfortunately the 500 or so TB deaths are on a total population of over 300 million (anyone can get drug resistant TB but not everyone flies in general aviation. Therefore the risk potential goes up exponentially due to it being based on probably, what you say, a population of a couple million? (Counting family and friends who flew GA). What I did find interesting were the number of deaths attributed to malnutrition. Sad to see a number that high in a "developed" country.

[FAST FLIGHT OPTIONS LLC]

I think percentage wise your going to be off when you look at total US population vs. the GA population

[aviatoreb]

 ... stay away from bad stuff, don't piss people enough to kill you, 

 

Are you saying I need to start being nicer?!!!

[carusoam]

I didn't see myocardial infarction on the list, but I know jogging to maintain your health isn't a good idea either...

Bennett gives us a good example of how to fly a Mooney and keep on going. Thanks Bennett!

Fly on...

-a-

[aviatoreb]

I think percentage wise your going to be off when you look at total US population vs. the GA population

 

Yes, the idea is conditional probabilities.

 

P(death by GA in the general population)<<P(death by GA|you are a GA pilot)

 

Read in English, probability of death by GA for a person selected at random from the general population is much less than the probability of death by GA given you are a GA pilot.

 

Likewise I am not likely to be killed while cleaning my gun since I do not own a gun.  But people die all the time by the hand of their own firearm both by accident and by rage.  Guns are dangerous that way but I am not personally worried about being killed by my own gun...don't have one.

 

I find an acceptable way to rate the risk is "number of incidents per hour of exposure".

 

GA is dangerous.  There is no way around that statement.  I take this to mean simply that we need to a) decide if the level is reasonable in comparison to other things we do, and we respect it and perform the activity with the care it deserves to mitigate the risk.

 

As for a) in per hour of exposure, GA is less risky than motorcycles (by a little bit) canoes (by a surprising margin!) and bicycles, the last two of which are other activities I enjoy.  No one gives you a hard time for going out on a canoe.  It is much worse per hour than cars, and also airlines.

 

As for GA I do not have the statistics for it, but it is my strong believe that "90% of the population risk is concentrated on 10% of the people".  I am making up the actual numbers there, but what I am saying is there are a few bozo-pilots out there why do stupid pilot-things and it catches up to them, and they are the clowns who bring down the GA stats in general.   So if you believe me, and don't be a stupid pilot - and we know what that means - then I am working under the believe that its a bit better than the general stats suggest.  

 

Stated as conditional probabilities:

P(incident|you are not a bozo)<P(incident|you are a pilot selected from the general population)<P(incident|you are a bozo).

[aviatoreb]

I didn't see myocardial infarction on the list, but I know jogging to maintain your health isn't a good idea either...

Fly on...

-a-

 

I have read that in general litt, but never in a proper spot to make an informed decision.

 

I worry about that statement as you put it that myocardial infarction alone is a risk factor for jogging as we age, but I would think that removing the healthy lifestyle including the excercise to sedentary is a greater health risk than the added health risk of jogging and myocardial infarction.

 

I am asking, not saying....carusoam are you in a profession to speak about this in an informed way?

[carusoam]

EB, I only have a small amount experience n=1...

Now, I walk and control collesterol. Genetics and statistics can tell us a lot about where we are heading.

If I had a recommendation, it would go something like... Everyone review what grandma, granddad, mom and dad passed from. If it was a heart attack check with your doctor about how to avoid one in your future. It is probable that these things can be avoided. We are not destined to follow their exact path...

Communication is a powerful tool.

No one else in my family flies a plane, n=1 again...

My last job was in the pharma industry working on launching a drug product that helped prevent blood clots that compound the issues experienced with heart attacks. The drug has not gone to market yet, and there are plenty of competitors on the horizon... My expertise is in extrusion/compounding and polymer packaging.

I am not an expert on any health issues or flying issues, but I have (some) experience in both...

Best regards,

-a-

[1964-M20E]

Well I have more guns than airplanes and I've had close calls with both.  The trick is to learn from your mistakes and others and hopefully not repeat them.  However, I've had more close calls driving, or swimming than flying.

 

I'm not a statistician but  the numbers could be normalized to show the rates on an even basis.

 

Bottom line the leading cause of death is birth and the true cost of living is dying which I hope through reasonably good choices and a lot of luck I'll put off for a very long time.

[Jamie]

As for GA I do not have the statistics for it, but it is my strong believe that "90% of the population risk is concentrated on 10% of the people".  I am making up the actual numbers there, but what I am saying is there are a few bozo-pilots out there why do stupid pilot-things and it catches up to them, and they are the clowns who bring down the GA stats in general.  

 

This. For me, the question was "Is GA intrinsically dangerous, or just dangerous if you're stupid?" If you believe the movies, handling old nitroglycerine is intrinsically dangerous. Look at it wrong, *boom*. No amount of smarts will lessen the probability of darwinating.

 

GA, OTOH, rewards careful study and attention to detail. We don't HAVE to run out of fuel, we don't HAVE to fly into bad weather. We don't HAVE to do any of the other top 10 things that kill pilots.

 

Of course, when we do screw up and die it's usually in a way the media can use to sell advertising. I think that changes the risk perceived by the public even if it doesn't actually alter the math.

[bnicolette]

I never knew that folks died from a hernia?  WTH?

 

Mike, you have too much time on your hands bud.  But I like it!!

 

Check this video out.  These two idiots almost made the Nall report along with the poor folks in the back.

 

[BorealOne]

 

P(incident|you are not a bozo)<P(incident|you are a pilot selected from the general population)<P(incident|you are a bozo).

 

We'll call this "the Bozo Proposition" - I think it's a good working hypothesis. Now all we need is an Attitude of Bozo Indicator (an ABI... instead of an AOA) in our cockpits, and we can increase safety by a wide margin 

[aviatoreb]

We'll call this "the Bozo Proposition" - I think it's a good working hypothesis. Now all we need is an Attitude of Bozo Indicator (an ABI... instead of an AOA) in our cockpits, and we can increase safety by a wide margin 

 

Haha - you know I am a math professor.  Publishing a proposition is what I am supposed to be doing for a living.  Well theorems are better, but propositions are like baby theorems.

 

I like your idea of a ABI.  I imagine an ABI as follows.  It could be a small round sphere device that lives on the panel but it could retract from the panel with a wire - It could be a small clip on device like a pulse oxymetry device, but it clips on your nose and turns red if you turn bozo.

 

 

[fantom]

Haha - you know I am a math professor.

The heck with teaching. You've got a future as a comedian.

[aviatoreb]

The heck with teaching. You've got a future as a comedian.

 

:-)

[yvesg]

Teachers have to be comedians, otherwise they don't last long. Kids are so used to get a show, any boring teacher would soon bacome hitory I think.

Yves