The Future of Internal Combustion Engine Light Aircraft - Environmental Globalists are in the control seat

[OZMOONEYMAN]

Who is worried about the future of general aviation internal combustion engine aircraft?

I have concerns about what the future holds with regard to avgas burning light craft.  The two biggest concerns are what will the future valuations look like if fuel prices rise dramatically and also the cost of operation.

Car manufactures are pivoting to electric at a rapid pace with HUGE agendas for close to total electrification by 2030 for many.   Both GM and Ford (among the other big guys ) are really rolling out the agenda.

Will governments push their populations into car electrification by huge gasoline fuel prices increases with knock on effects for light aircraft?

Will existing internal combustion light aircraft give way to newer electric aircraft, with an off the cliff dive of light aircraft prices as demand dries up?

Interested in any informed predictions and timelines...

[M20F]

We have been here before

[GeeBee]

Oh, yeah, been there, done that, have the T-Shirt. I remember in 1978 wondering about my career choice as Jimmy Carter was telling everyone to wear a sweater and I checked my license plate to see if I could fill up. My chief pilot looked at me and said "There is plenty of oil, just a lack of common sense." 

The world is awash in oil, what is missing is the will to go get it. When the environmentalists realize there will be no more North Face jackets or Patagonia T-shirts, no more baby formula and devastatingly, no more tofu without oil....oil will flow again. Spend a few days in the heartland and realize that without mobile nuclear power plants, wheat, corn and soybeans cannot be planted or harvested without oil. Worse, it cannot be grown as natural gas and petroleum is the prime ingredient in fertilizer. The world is about to get a serious lesson in the value of oil as famines start to rage in the next few years in the east. At that time, the people will change the policy. The people are always ahead of the leaders. 

[Mooney Dog]

2 hours ago, OZMOONEYMAN said:

Who is worried about the future of general aviation internal combustion engine aircraft?

I have concerns about what the future holds with regard to avgas burning light craft.  The two biggest concerns are what will the future valuations look like if fuel prices rise dramatically and also the cost of operation.

Car manufactures are pivoting to electric at a rapid pace with HUGE agendas for close to total electrification by 2030 for many.   Both GM and Ford (among the other big guys ) are really rolling out the agenda.

Will governments push their populations into car electrification by huge gasoline fuel prices increases with knock on effects for light aircraft?

Will existing internal combustion light aircraft give way to newer electric aircraft, with an off the cliff dive of light aircraft prices as demand dries up?

Interested in any informed predictions and timelines...

 

If we're lucky we'll get rid of the internal combustion engine with time. an ICE is only about 11-27% efficient. Electric motors are much more efficient, somewhere around 80-90%. The biggest problem for electric motors are batteries/power sources. Thats why hybrids right now are a pretty big market. 

 

Concern about the future are the same that have been there for year and year. Sadly aviation is expensive and its going to be the "cost to entry" that causes light GA to die. Kind of hard to buy an airplane when you cant afford must more than a place to live. 

 

Electric cars are MUCH more efficient than an ICE car. There's 0 question about that. Again the problem is the batteries. The only way they get better is to keep R&D on the projects. I for one would love an eclectic car though. Much cheaper to charge the battery than fill a tank, even at old gas prices. Gets me around the city where i need to go. Sure the only problem would be a long cross country drive from city to city but i have a plane for that. 

 

Governments dont really control gas prices, and even if the gov does push people to electric cars, thats not necessarily a bad thing. Sadly that whole debate gets way to deep into politics and pilots and politics dont mix well. 

 

Plane prices will continue to go up due to lack of planes, increases of cost of materials, and certifications and building of parts.

[GeeBee]

I don't know why we keep coming back to cars on this subject. Cars are easy. Try running a 32 row corn harvester on batteries or disking 500 acres. Not going to happen. Not going to make a 1000 mile run with an all electric locomotive unless you broaden and fence the entire right of way. (Read expensive, lots of land and environmental damage). Boats at best get 2nm/gal. Not going electric there either and if you want to water ski? Fuhgetaboutit. Even the chairman of Ford Motor says electric for cars and light trucks in an urban setting. Oil is not going away without quantum leaps, I mean factors of 25 to 50 in battery technology.

 

[thinwing]

and those lithium batteries...my 100 mile range Nissan Leaf is now down to 33 mile range.Cost of new battery is twice what 2011 leaf is worth.I plan to drive this thing till battery goes dead and than donate the thing.I donot plan to ever buy another electric.

[EricJ]

Trains and ocean vessels, farm machinery, large trucks, earth moving machinery, large aircraft, etc., etc.   There are so many applications that require energy densities that are not within the realm of even reasonable-future battery technology that fossil fuels will remain in play for quite a while.   Carving off a bit for aviation or rural or industrial or whatever use will remain practical for a long time, I think.

[N201MKTurbo]

5 hours ago, GeeBee said:

I don't know why we keep coming back to cars on this subject. Cars are easy. Try running a 32 row corn harvester on batteries or disking 500 acres. Not going to happen. Not going to make a 1000 mile run with an all electric locomotive unless you broaden and fence the entire right of way. (Read expensive, lots of land and environmental damage). Boats at best get 2nm/gal. Not going electric there either and if you want to water ski? Fuhgetaboutit. Even the chairman of Ford Motor says electric for cars and light trucks in an urban setting. Oil is not going away without quantum leaps, I mean factors of 25 to 50 in battery technology.

 

Our local Tempe Town Lake only allows electric boats. I was considering finding a wrecked Tesla and salvaging the parts to make an electric boat. I guarantee you could water ski behind it. But alas, I read the regulations closer and there is 5MPH speed limit for electric boats 

[Mooney 217RN]

Once the Global Warming alarmists and the Green crew realize that they cannot hop on an airliner for that weekend trip to the beach in Belize or that jaunt over the pond to London without JetA, they'll come back to reality.

Here's the issue with petroleum in sum - there's easily a 300+ year supply of known reserves.  we went from burning wood to burning coal to burning kerosene and then of course gasoline.  Oil has taken us from Little House on the Prairie to where we are today.  Oil has 30x the energy of wood burning.  Electrical power is 2x the energy of wood burning.  There's the difference, electric flight is a pipe dream that will not occur in our lifetime, if ever.

I am by the way, all for alternative energy.  It's not practical however as a transportation fuel.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Mooney 217RN

[McMooney]

Unfortunately, I believe GA is killing itself, electrics will have little to do with it. 

it's just gotten damn expensive. 

in the last 5 years, insurance has double, hangar rent has went up 1.5 times, mechanic now charges 100+ dollars an hour

everything avionics  is just damn expensive. new garmin navcom is 5k, hell a used 430w is still 4 or 5 k.

new 172 is FAR more expensive than my house, let alone something like a cirrus/diamond

really, really hard to get a young person excited about flying when it means sacrificing pretty much everything else

 

[Eight8Victor]

51 minutes ago, Mooney 217RN said:

electric flight is a pipe dream that will not occur in our lifetime, if ever.

 

 

+1

 

[GeeBee]

3 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Our local Tempe Town Lake only allows electric boats. I was considering finding a wrecked Tesla and salvaging the parts to make an electric boat. I guarantee you could water ski behind it. But alas, I read the regulations closer and there is 5MPH speed limit for electric boats 

Oh yeah. You could get up for about 1 minute. Then the power draw would be so huge, to protect the battery from overheat, you would start getting a power down, just like Tesla's do when you drag race them. I own several boats and a V-8 ski boat with a 6.6L MPI engine requires full throttle to get a skier up and runs about 3600 RPM. It takes a lot of power to get a boat on plane and there is a reason why they get about 1.5 to 2 nm/gal.

 

[OZMOONEYMAN]

9 hours ago, GeeBee said:

I don't know why we keep coming back to cars on this subject. Cars are easy. Try running a 32 row corn harvester on batteries or disking 500 acres. Not going to happen. Not going to make a 1000 mile run with an all electric locomotive unless you broaden and fence the entire right of way. (Read expensive, lots of land and environmental damage). Boats at best get 2nm/gal. Not going electric there either and if you want to water ski? Fuhgetaboutit. Even the chairman of Ford Motor says electric for cars and light trucks in an urban setting. Oil is not going away without quantum leaps, I mean factors of 25 to 50 in battery technology.

 

I'm looking at petrochemical industry.  Will the dynamics of car gasoline supply and demand change the costs and number of players in the aviation gasoline industry.  Also will we all be regulated by personal carbon rationing - carbon crediting and debiting system linked to digital IDs etc.  Some large global forces at play.

'The White Paper explores the concept of Personal Carbon Allowances - investigating how it could work in practice, reviewing what a personal carbon allowance would include, and looking at how big a personal carbon allowance should be. It includes learning's and feedback from a four-week consumer trial in Great Britain which set a personal carbon allowance of 20Kg CO₂ per day.'

https://prod-drupal-files.storage.googleapis.com/documents/resource/public/Personal Carbon Allowances White Paper - REPORT.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_carbon_credits

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00756-w

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/carbon-credits-what-how-fight-climate-change/

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/personal-carbon-allowances-surveillance-capitalism/

 

[GeeBee]

Aviation fuel would not be produced now in the US if there was not legal requirements to do it. There is about 180 million gallons per year used in the US. I don't have the numbers, but I would guess more paint thinner is produced in the US than Avgas. Thus it is a boutique fuel, like racing fuel. It is small batch, special run stuff and has little relationship to auto fuel.

As for personal carbon credits, maybe in OZ land but not here unless the party wanting it wants to be relegated to permanent minority status. Look how vaccine mandates went over and the multiply it by a factor of three. Personal carbon credits are not compatible with the American experience.

 

 

 

[N201MKTurbo]

26 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

Oh yeah. You could get up for about 1 minute. Then the power draw would be so huge, to protect the battery from overheat, you would start getting a power down, just like Tesla's do when you drag race them. I own several boats and a V-8 ski boat with a 6.6L MPI engine requires full throttle to get a skier up and runs about 3600 RPM. It takes a lot of power to get a boat on plane and there is a reason why they get about 1.5 to 2 nm/gal.

 

It’s a boat, I would have unlimited cooling from the lake. I may have to devise a battery cooling heat exchanger, sounds like fun. 
 

As far as getting up on a ski boat, I had a friend who bought a 50 hp boat and stripped it down to a hull and a motor. That thing would pop me right out of the water on a skinny solemn ski. 

[GeeBee]

Hmmmm. Hot lithium and water. What could go wrong.

 

 

[Hank]

30 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

It’s a boat, I would have unlimited cooling from the lake. I may have to devise a battery cooling heat exchanger, sounds like fun. 
 

As far as getting up on a ski boat, I had a friend who bought a 50 hp boat and stripped it down to a hull and a motor. That thing would pop me right out of the water on a skinny solemn ski. 

I learned to ski behind a boat with 50 hp Johnson. All four went, padded seats, cooler, lunch, Bimini top, safety gear, etc., etc. Nothing was stripped, usually went ~35 mph, more with a fresh wax. No trouble even getting dad up on skis. No, don't want to try it with an electric boat . . . . 

[OZMOONEYMAN]

9 hours ago, GeeBee said:

Aviation fuel would not be produced now in the US if there was not legal requirements to do it. There is about 180 million gallons per year used in the US. I don't have the numbers, but I would guess more paint thinner is produced in the US than Avgas. Thus it is a boutique fuel, like racing fuel. It is small batch, special run stuff and has little relationship to auto fuel.

As for personal carbon credits, maybe in OZ land but not here unless the party wanting it wants to be relegated to permanent minority status. Look how vaccine mandates went over and the multiply it by a factor of three. Personal carbon credits are not compatible with the American experience.

 

 

 

Right now I believe 194 member countries of the WHO are about to sign a 'Global Pandemic Treaty'.  Don't be surprised if USA falls to the globalists NWO very soon.

 

[A64Pilot]

19 hours ago, GeeBee said:

I don't know why we keep coming back to cars on this subject. Cars are easy. Try running a 32 row corn harvester on batteries or disking 500 acres. Not going to happen. Not going to make a 1000 mile run with an all electric locomotive unless you broaden and fence the entire right of way. (Read expensive, lots of land and environmental damage). Boats at best get 2nm/gal. Not going electric there either and if you want to water ski? Fuhgetaboutit. Even the chairman of Ford Motor says electric for cars and light trucks in an urban setting. Oil is not going away without quantum leaps, I mean factors of 25 to 50 in battery technology.

 

As I understand it, the concept by more logical people is there is a finite amount of oil, stop wasting it where it’s not needed, cars for instance, save it for where it’s needed ship come to mind.

However it seems even OTR trucks even electric is viable, probably take an enormous power line to charge one I assume.

The Leaf was first, it is the Model T of electrics, it was meant as an inter city vehicle and for whatever reason never really evolved with battery cooling systems etc.

The Leaf may not have been first, but was the firs average Joe could afford.

The issue Ford and GM will face is the lack of a charging infrastructure, which they apparently are looking to the Government to supply because I’ve not seen them building any.

Viable four place electric airplanes? I don’t think I’ll ever see one, and if I do there will be no way I could afford one. Even if a lightweight battery becomes available the expense of design, manufacturing and Certification will drive it way outside of my ability to purchase.

Ski boats were used as an example, well they exist and from a very reputable manufacturer, just the purchase price is over $300K, so for me at this point a gimmick or a way to show off your wealth, like driving a Ferrari etc

https://nautique.com/models/super-air-nautique-gs22e/overview

[GeeBee]

2 to 3 hours range. Have your Boat US card ready. On my lake, it takes 30 minutes from the ramp to a good ski area. 

 

[hubcap]

When they convert Air Force 1 to electric the rest of us can convert.

[GeeBee]

1 hour ago, OZMOONEYMAN said:

Right now I believe 194 member countries of the WHO are about to sign a 'Global Pandemic Treaty'.  Don't be surprised if USA falls to the globalists NWO very soon.

 

Treaties have to be approved by the Senate to be binding on the American people and you need a 2/3 majority. What do you think the chances of that happening? No party has held a 2/3 majority since WWII.

[A64Pilot]

16 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

2 to 3 hours range. Have your Boat US card ready. On my lake, it takes 30 minutes from the ramp to a good ski area. 

 

Whenever you show something exists others want to try to make a case why or how it won’t work.

First of all nobody water skis anymore. I lived aboard for years and have cruised the ICW extensively, a very few will wakeboard, but they are very rare. It’s not like it was when I was a kid, you’ll see Jet Ski’s that aren’t really jet skis anymore they are sit down boats that require no skill to operate. People I believe are simply just too lazy to ski, or are unwilling to spend the time to learn, which sort of defines lazy. So they know these things won’t sell in any kind of volume, it will be a niche product so a few can feel superior out on the lake, it’s not a mainstream boat.

I understand boats and fuel, my 21’ CC with a single 175 motor carried 100 gls, boats and airplanes have a lot of similarity in how the engines are operated, no car runs continuously at high power, boats do.

But you missed the whole point, the point is it’s an over $300K ski boat, who has that kind of cash for a ski boat?

For electric anything to be actually viable, it can’t cost more than its ICE counterpoint, and if you really want it to become “the” thing, it needs to cost less.

Average person won’t pay more for something especially if it has drawbacks, but they will line up if it costs less.

[A64Pilot]

10 hours ago, Hank said:

I learned to ski behind a boat with 50 hp Johnson. All four went, padded seats, cooler, lunch, Bimini top, safety gear, etc., etc. Nothing was stripped, usually went ~35 mph, more with a fresh wax. No trouble even getting dad up on skis. No, don't want to try it with an electric boat . . . . 

That’s the thing, electric way outperforms ICE, I mean it’s not even close, especially in torque, which is what you need to get onto plane quickly.

The problem with electric as power is almost unlimited is battery capacity, there are mainstream over 1,000 HP electric sedans, there are no over 1,000 HP ICE sedans.

If your a performance enthusiast you will either become an electric enthusiast or you will have your head in the sand. This is a short clip, the M5 in this vid was in 2000 the fastest sedan available then, the current one is faster, but not ac quick as either electric

 

[steingar]

Little curious who these "environmental Globalists" actually are.  As far as I can tell hereabouts the energy companies are very large and very much in charge.  Yeah, there'll be lots of oil until there isn't, and then things will get really really bad.  Fossil fuels are an expendable resource, question is at what point do we hit Peak Oil.  With any luck not in my lifetime, but I wouldn't ay much beyond that.