Love of flying in the Time of Coronavirus

[jaylw314]

12 hours ago, neilpilot said:

Accepted estimates of deaths during the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic range from 50-100 million.  The global population was 1.5-1.7 billion.  That implies that it "only" killed at a minimum one out of 35 people, and possibly as many as 1 in 15.  You might feel that's not a BFD, but other's here might disagree.

That was an argument ad absurdum.  That's why I was using the most conservative numbers.  Sorry if that wasn't clear in how it was worded.

[jaylw314]

11 hours ago, KLRDMD said:

This is the best discussion I’ve seen on this topic:

...

Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease? 

All good points, although I would pick nits with the statement that we've had a century of triumph over infectious disease.  We've had a century of struggling with bacterial resistance, we've missed our potential with the use of vaccines, and we haven't done jack with the common cold (of which this a variant) and the flu.  No exactly a stellar track record, if you ask me...

[Hank]

3 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

All good points, although I would pick nits with the statement that we've had a century of triumph over infectious disease.  We've had a century of struggling with bacterial resistance, we've missed our potential with the use of vaccines, and we haven't done jack with the common cold (of which this a variant) and the flu.  No exactly a stellar track record, if you ask me...

I think we have done well creating vaccines, and use was pretty good until the turn if the century when internet "influencers" began catering to people's fears and spreqding fake news that vaccinations against horrible diseases caused other rare conditions, and that cchildfen were better off not receiving vaccinations. That these "influencers" had no medicaomtraining, and often  kthung beyond mediocre high school instruction and certainly no scientific training didnt3deter them from spreading their anti-vax propaganda . . . . nor dissuade theirmdeluded followers from accepting the "influencer's" advice over that of the global medical community . . . 

[aviatoreb]

4 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

That was an argument ad absurdum.  That's why I was using the most conservative numbers.  Sorry if that wasn't clear in how it was worded.

Please explain your qualifications for choosing which numbers are correct and which or incorrect.

I am not a historian and I rely on records reported by experts.  I have read widely on this, and reports range from 17 to 100 million for the 1918 Spanish flu.  Most serious sources describe 50 million.  For example this source from the US National Archive. https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/influenza-epidemic/

This source in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports 50-100 million but with more accuracy they report 500,000-6750,000 deaths in the USA in 1918. 

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

The population in the the USA in 1918 was 103,208,000.

Using the conservative number of 500,000/103,208,000=0.485%.  In context of something I understand, my university has 4300 students.  That is 21 students dead.  We have 309 faculty (including me) and that is 1.48 but I am rounding up to 2 for sake that faculty tend to be older.  This is a BFD to me.

South Korea is reporting 0,8% mortality rate for CV19 given their much more highly accurate and extensive testing, and also top of the line and not saturated (currently) health care.  This is a big deal.

[aviatoreb]

11 hours ago, Stephen said:

My wife and one of my best friends are FM and infectious disease docs respectively. Discussing this with them, they think maybe  a better case for understanding mortality could be the South Korean numbers (70/7979) because they have done (if memory serves) over 200K tests at the current rate of 10K tests/day vs the US's current high estimate of 11K tests all in. They felt that the S. Korean number are likely much closer to the actual N of cases vs mortality and puts it at an average of .8%. 

They suggested that the Diamond Princess may be even better mortality numbers. On Diamond Princess, everyone was tested. About 1/2  (328/697) of the people who were tested as positive for COV-19 showed no symptoms of all. Most that experienced symptoms experienced it as a normal cold or less.  7/697 (1%) died (15 are currently critical and 30 once critical and now improved). Important to keep in mind the average age of the ship was 58 and 1/3rd of the PAX were over 70. All the current deaths were over 70. 

That may be a bit better than what you are seeing on the news and what you are inferring from the WHO.... for whatever it is worth. 

I agree completely with yours - and your wife's and friend's assessment.  But 0,8% comes out to roughly half of the rates reported elsewhere, isn't it?  So this is good news, but still describes a significant pandemic but now reporting with more accurate numbers from two different ways.  Both the South Korea with extensive testing, and the Princess numbers with rougher smaller numbers, (so less statistical significance as to the exact decimal points) are in the same ball park.

[Stephen]

3 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

I agree completely with yours - and your wife's and friend's assessment.  But 0,8% comes out to roughly half of the rates reported elsewhere, isn't it?  So this is good news, but still describes a significant pandemic but now reporting with more accurate numbers from two different ways.  Both the South Korea with extensive testing, and the Princess numbers with rougher smaller numbers, (so less statistical significance as to the exact decimal points) are in the same ball park.

The mortality rate on the Princess definitely could go up with the people in critical condition, but the average age is skewed vs a general population. I think the wife was saying that her and her work colleagues were guessing that the US rates may ultimately settle around 0.4 - 0.5% , but I don't recall the rational, perhaps care protocol or something. I can tell you that the Writers Block pint at the brewery we were at was specifically wonderful. https://untappd.com/b/mark-twain-brewing-company-writer-s-block-doppelbock/3000002 

[aviatoreb]

17 minutes ago, Stephen said:

The mortality rate on the Princess definitely could go up with the people in critical condition, but the average age is skewed vs a general population. I think the wife was saying that her and her work colleagues were guessing that the US rates may ultimately settle around 0.4 - 0.5% , but I don't recall the rational, perhaps care protocol or something. I can tell you that the Writers Block pint at the brewery we were at was specifically wonderful. https://untappd.com/b/mark-twain-brewing-company-writer-s-block-doppelbock/3000002 

One feature that is quite different of the princess cruise is the way they were isolating in rooms for some time.  But the counter feature as you said is they are predominately older.  So it may not be a great analogue of general population disease spread.  I am more inclined to be swayed by the South Korea data.  0.8% so far.

[jaylw314]

4 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Please explain your qualifications for choosing which numbers are correct and which or incorrect.

Again, I am in agreement with your position.  I was trying to pointing out the fallacy of the argument that 'if it doesn't infect me or the people in my tribe, it's just fear-mongering on the part of the media.' 

[aviatoreb]

Just now, jaylw314 said:

Again, I am in agreement with your position.  I was pointing out the fallacy of the argument that 'if it doesn't infect me or the people in my tribe, it's just fear-mongering on the part of the media.' 

I ran out of likes - there’s a like limit it turns out.

Anyway i don’t watch tv or have open tv (I do have Netflix) so I don’t know a lot about what the media wants me to think but I do know what I think.

[jaylw314]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

I ran out of likes - there’s a like limit it turns out.

Anyway i don’t watch tv or have open tv (I do have Netflix) so I don’t know a lot about what the media wants me to think but I do know what I think.

NP, the eye-rolling emoji might have conveyed my tone a little more clearly, but the one we have is smiling, and I didn't think that was appropriate either.

FWIW, I was hypothetically conflating the numbers of the 1918 epidemic with this one.  The 1918 flu infected about 25% of the population, and people are hanging on to the idea that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is about 1% (even though that might be way off higher or lower).  Hence, one out of 400

[N9201A]

It's likely that we all know someone that has been infected.  It's also likely that that person may not know that they were infected.  People with mild symptoms that take off from work for a few days don't make for interesting news...

Just heard today about three people I know well in three different states, each of whom has just tested positive and is now self-quarantined. Unfortunately, in each case, they’d either just come from, or were headed home to, a different state. This situation is aggravated by schools shutting down and sending college kids schlepping home suddenly.

It seems if CV hasn’t happened near you yet, just stand by!

[donkaye]

On 3/13/2020 at 11:41 AM, flyboy0681 said:

I wasn't born yet for the polio outbreak in the 1950's. Anybody here live through that and if so, what was it like?

Yes.  A good friend of my Mother died from it.  A friend of mine in elementary school had it and it affected his walking.  I remember taking the "sugar cube" vaccine in 5th or 6th grade.

[aviatoreb]

8 hours ago, N9201A said:

 

Just heard today about three people I know well in three different states, each of whom has just tested positive and is now self-quarantined. Unfortunately, in each case, they’d either just come from, or were headed home to, a different state. This situation is aggravated by schools shutting down and sending college kids schlepping home suddenly.

It seems if CV hasn’t happened near you yet, just stand by!

 

Spring break had come - if they colleges had not shut the students would have gone home and then come back.  And college students often meet in large groups, in classes, in parties, and so on.

[Stephen]

6 hours ago, donkaye said:

Yes.  A good friend of my Mother died from it.  A friend of mine in elementary school had it and it affected his walking.  I remember taking the "sugar cube" vaccine in 5th or 6th grade.

I remember the cube! We all thought it was treat day and were happy to see the cube vs the syringe.