Mooney Values Increasing?

[Jeff_S]

Anybody else think that Mooney valuations are increasing? I got my property tax initial valuation last week, and the county seems to think the value of my plane actually went UP by a couple of thousand bucks. I've been a plane owner for 10 years and never once felt the market value of used aircraft was increasing or even staying the same. But as I was preparing to fire off my appeal, I scoured both Controller and TAP for similar birds, and damned if the asking prices do seem to have gone up a bit. Even factoring in expected selling prices, I couldn't use that data to make a legitimate case the county was wrong.

I'm going to appeal anyway, but I guess it's a double edged sword. Maybe the resurgence of the factory is having an positive overall effect.

[carusoam]

Compared to 2009 there are infinitely more Mooneys being purchased.

The price of fuel is getting more affordable.

The amount we spend commuting to work has left change in our pockets.

Interest rates have been at generational lows for years.  It may stay this way for another year.

Employment is up, unemployment is down, and continuing to get better.

The sun is shining, at least in the Mooney world...

There are many 'new to me' Mooney owners reporting in since June.

Could just be my casual observations.

These are the economic forces that make the price of capital or durable goods increase.  

Best regards,

-a-

[Bob_Belville]

Hope so. And my heirs hopes so. 

[Godfather]

Imo interest rates, record level markets, and cheap fuel are helping GA stabilize / grow in some areas.  At the local racetrack the number of $100k cars has increased dramatically over the past year or so.

[nels]

They might have. I just sold my 66 for what I had in it and usually after I sell something the market goes up. Although, it could just be the time of year. Spring and summer are great casual flying times.

Edited July 3, 2016 by nels

[rbridges]

just following the classifieds occasionally, it seems that prices have nudged up a little over the last few years, asking prices anyway.

[nels]

I think the C and E and maybe F models may have made a move up but not so sure about the higher end J's and their counterparts.

[glafaille]

As aircraft age, there are fewer suitable examples available for purchase.  Over time, aircraft are abandoned, fall into disrepair, neglected, and subject to mishap.  Often the cost to modify an older aircraft to suit your needs is so expensive that a newer aircraft makes more sense.

My own search for a Mooney was unsuccessful.  After a 5 month search for a suitable "C" model, I ended up with something else.  The C models especially are getting "long in the tooth" and nice examples are becoming rare and therefore worth more.

The question then becomes; What exactly is a "Nice Example"?  Each of us has a different idea of what that is.

[PMcClure]

That is not what I am seeing in the O values. But I like your thinking!

 

[peevee]

Nah, they can't be increasing because I already own my shares. Nothing increases AFTER I buy it.

[steingar]

Probably doesn't hurt that Mooney is once again and for the nonce solvent.

[rbridges]

11 hours ago, steingar said:

Probably doesn't hurt that Mooney is once again and for the nonce solvent.

I thought it may help prices with the factory producing new planes. 

[Bob_Belville]

2 minutes ago, rbridges said:

I thought it may help prices with the factory producing new planes. 

I would think they'll be some benefit to the buzz and good press. Just as there had to be some concern what support would be like if the company had failed completely.

[Bravoman]

I could certainly be wrong but I don't ever see our planes increasing in value to the point it would make much of a difference to most of us. Back in the late 80s and into the 90s you could double your money or come close in a few years. Those days are gone for good. I think so far as piston singles are concerned the new plane market will go to the new generation of cirrus type aircraft. I hope there is a viable  long term market for new  legacy aircraft like the M20, but I have my doubts.

 

[peevee]

8 hours ago, Bravoman said:

I could certainly be wrong but I don't ever see our planes increasing in value to the point it would make much of a difference to most of us. Back in the late 80s and into the 90s you could double your money or come close in a few years. Those days are gone for good. I think so far as piston singles are concerned the new plane market will go to the new generation of cirrus type aircraft. I hope there is a viable  long term market for new  legacy aircraft like the M20, but I have my doubts.

 

I hope so. At least your outlook on the future of GA is brighter than mine.

[rbridges]

9 hours ago, Bravoman said:

I could certainly be wrong but I don't ever see our planes increasing in value to the point it would make much of a difference to most of us. Back in the late 80s and into the 90s you could double your money or come close in a few years. Those days are gone for good. I think so far as piston singles are concerned the new plane market will go to the new generation of cirrus type aircraft. I hope there is a viable  long term market for new  legacy aircraft like the M20, but I have my doubts.

 

I think you're right about the new plane market, and I think mooney agrees. The second door, updated interior, composite materials around the cabin, etc. adds similarity IMO to the cirrus. 

[PMcClure]

Without new airplane tax incentives, I wonder how many new planes would actually sale. Looking at resale values of late model Mooney's or Cirrus, neither looks like a good buy new, unless you can depreciate the value over a few years. $1mm for a single piston seems laughable. 

[Bob_Belville]

14 minutes ago, PMcClure said:

Without new airplane tax incentives, I wonder how many new planes would actually sale. Looking at resale values of late model Mooney's or Cirrus, neither looks like a good buy new, unless you can depreciate the value over a few years. $1mm for a single piston seems laughable. 

For a company like Mooney it's a chicken and egg thingy. From my paper napkin scratching, at 2-3 planes per month they cannot possibly charge enough to cover their nut. And even at half the price there probably would not be 1/4 the market there was 50 years ago when my E was one of 760 Mooneys built for that year. In '66 Es were $24,000 list price, $1000 more than C models. At the moment Mooney International has 20x the overhead burden on each plane as the old company did. FWIW, I don't suppose they made money in 1966 either. 

[Mark89114]

My opinion is there is too much cheap money, people overextend and buy $100k cars, $800k planes, and $1.5 MIL houses.  More money chasing a limited supply of product the price goes up.  Wait till the next crash, our planes will be cheap then.....I am just a cold calculating cynical bastard.  

[nels]

On July 4, 2016 at 11:58 AM, Bob_Belville said:

For a company like Mooney it's a chicken and egg thingy. From my paper napkin scratching, at 2-3 planes per month they cannot possibly charge enough to cover their nut. And even at half the price there probably would not be 1/4 the market there was 50 years ago when my E was one of 760 Mooneys built for that year. In '66 Es were $24,000 list price, $1000 more than C models. At the moment Mooney International has 20x the overhead burden on each plane as the old company did. FWIW, I don't suppose they made money in 1966 either. 

In 1966 the average car price was probably $3k or less and now the average is about $30k or ten times. A mooney at $25k in 1966 should be $250k today but instead it's $750k. I guess the extra $500k is added on to cover lack of volume and government regulations. The new sticker price eliminates buyers which keeps volume down and price up and drives the aircraft production business out of business.

Edited July 8, 2016 by nels

[ArtVandelay]

It's reported that liability was $100k per plane in 1988, probably twice that now.

[peevee]

7 hours ago, Mark89114 said:

My opinion is there is too much cheap money, people overextend and buy $100k cars, $800k planes, and $1.5 MIL houses.  More money chasing a limited supply of product the price goes up.  Wait till the next crash, our planes will be cheap then.....I am just a cold calculating cynical bastard.  

No, I think you're right. 

Wages are pretty stagnant, but the average car is almost 40k and people are buying them. Starter houses around me are 350+,its not sustainable 

[chrisk]

On 7/2/2016 at 9:42 PM, Jeff_S said:

Anybody else think that Mooney valuations are increasing? I got my property tax initial valuation last week, and the county seems to think the value of my plane actually went UP by a couple of thousand bucks. I've been a plane owner for 10 years and never once felt the market value of used aircraft was increasing or even staying the same. But as I was preparing to fire off my appeal, I scoured both Controller and TAP for similar birds, and damned if the asking prices do seem to have gone up a bit. Even factoring in expected selling prices, I couldn't use that data to make a legitimate case the county was wrong.

I'm going to appeal anyway, but I guess it's a double edged sword. Maybe the resurgence of the factory is having an positive overall effect.

To bad you can't force them to buy you out.  --Provided they do their job properly, it wouldn't cost them a thing.