Present state and future direction of GA

[PTK]

There is no doubt that GA is going through a major transition and facing very difficult challenges. Economy, cutbacks, avgas, politics, airport closures, decline in pilot training, etc etc. all contribute to a feeling of uncertainty.

Is ga doomed? Is it a matter of time? What do we need most to survive?

The golden age seems to be long gone. Will it make a comeback? Hopefully stronger than ever?

Does anyone else think about this? I'm concerned that we are standing by helpless watching the boat sink!

I had this discussion earlier today with a buddy who flies for a major airline. He seems to think ga lacks the proper leadership to navigate the challenges and we're our own worst enemy!

Is this accurate? What do you guys think?

[Rwsavory]

I think that once the economy improves, particularly real estate values, we will see some more vitality to GA.  I do think the momentum is moving away from certified to experimental.  Personally, I have been able to get back into serious flying and aircraft ownership due to a reduction in used airplane prices.  I am now flying for about half the hourly cost of renting a slower airplane.  Some pilots like to bellyache a lot; I'm not one of them.

[Alan Fox]

The interest doesn't fade , but the expense dictates the market....when LSA and the Diamond DA20 types get a decent foothold in the fleet , you will see a shift to this type of aircraft.....and GA will press on.....I personally love the fact that the planes lost 50% of their Value....I got into a S35 Bonanza two years ago for about 43K , 8 years ago the price of admission was about 100K for that aircraft....As far as my Mooney , I will sell it for 20K less than I would have had to pay 8 years ago , and still hold a decent profit..... Like every facet of life , change is imminent , and time presses on.....

[bnicolette]

As far as my Mooney , I will sell it for 20K less than I would have had to pay 8 years ago , and still hold a decent profit..... 

 

I'm sorry,..........did you say profit?  I didn't think that the words Mooney and profit could be used in the same sentence. 

[scottfromiowa]

Did you inquire As too why we are our own worst enemy? That is an interesting comment that I would not have let lie...

There is a tremendous infrastructure across the USA in GA. It is massively under utilized due to many reasons as stated above. There is a tremendous opportunity with current uncertified avionics that are priced right (Auto-pilots, weather with integrated GPS) that if unlocked could really make updates and refurbishment of affordable existing GA fleet to allow a lot of safe flying...my entry into co-ownership has allowed safety upgrades to be made that enhance safety and the experiene of flight and bring the costs of ownership to a level that is manageable...for me. It is expensive to learn. Always has been and always will be expensive. The govt has done a dis-service to GA with the class warfare and threats of user fees on top of fuel tax. It serves their purpose and lumps all pilots not flying big iron into an elitist class that is simply not accurate. The attack on low lead is also mis-guided and serves a similar purpose. I want to get my son flying to carry the mantle forward. He is 20 and fully engaged in getting his education, but some day...I will help him realize the dream of soloing in an aircraft. It will be a great day! I think about what GA could and should be and say why not? The recent attacks by homeland security on law abiding citizens exercising their right to pursue flight in a personal aircraft are disconcerting. Glad they are being exposed. We will not see a turn around until the liability system and political environment changes. It is windy in Iowa...maybe it is the winds of change...maybe.

[scottfromiowa]

When my belly aches I go take a dump...or go flying. Both equal relief.

[Alan Fox]

Scott , you are for sure an optimist......As far as the winds go , I smell something , I don't think its "change"

[Alan Fox]

When my belly aches I go take a dump...or go flying. Both equal relief.

If only your Mooney had a potty...... You could do both at the same time!!!

[scottfromiowa]

My glass is indeed half full

[jackn]

I don't have any answers, but I do have a few observations. I don't believe it's economics. On any weekend I see (more than I could possibly count) 30 somethings driving cars worth $200k or more, the restaurants are overflowing and more fancy folks than anyone would want around. My airport parking lot is packed with folks getting on Net Jets, helecopters constanty comin & going. It's not the move to experimentals, although that is happening. Up until now you could't even think of getting a hanger, Now we have 4 or 5 for sale. I'm one of the 'young guys' based here, I'm 56.

I think there is just no interest from the internet generation in aviation. For me it's been an addiction, I have to have it. Maybe we could find ways of making aviation 'pefectly safe' and 'very easy'. Just don't know.

[Jamie]

Flying is simply too expensive. And it's getting worse. This alone will kill GA.

 

Don't think so? Run this experiment. I have....

 

Find someone who likes the idea of flying, but hasn't dreamed about it like you have. Talk it up. Maybe take them flying. -sell- them on it. Then wait till they ask, with some enthusiasm... "Sounds cool. How much does it cost?"

 

"I'm glad you asked! It's only about $6000 to get a pilot's license (40 hours * ($110/hr plane + $40 hr instructor, local verified prices)."

 

"**** me. No way. You'd have to be rich to afford that. How much for my own airplane?"

 

"I'm glad you asked! For about as much as you'd pay for a new car, you can have a 40 year old high time trainer that'll go 100kts." <shows victim a picture of the "bargain">

 

"Ugh. No thanks. But just because I'm curious, what would something like that cost to own?"

 

"I'm glad you asked! Insurance, hangar rent, property tax, oil and fuel, then there's maintenance and parts and...."

 

Yeah. Right. I've had this conversation a half dozen times. No one... NO ONE has survived beyond this point.

 

It's too expensive. Period. IMHO, any other factor is a distant second. And until the costs come down, nothing will change.

[Piloto]

With current fuel prices only the most efficient will survive and that includes the Mooneys. By 2015 AVGAS will be over $10/gallon. A Baron B58 will cost you $300/hr to fly vs a M20J  $100/hr. Assuming you fly 100hrs/year a B58 will cost you $30k/year just in AVGAS while a M20J would be $10k/year. In ten years a B58 would have cost you $200K more than the Mooney. Not to mention maintenance and insurance. You can purchase a lot of things with $200K or use it for retirement. With $200K saved you can overhaul your M20J engine and have $175K left to buy other stuff, while for the Baron you have $0 saved and have to borrow $100K+ for engines overhaul. Its your money, spend it wisely.   

 

José  

[NotarPilot]

You definitely have to have a passion for aviation and it seems most of the current generation Y have a passion for much of anything.

[aviatoreb]

 

Yeah. Right. I've had this conversation a half dozen times. No one... NO ONE has survived beyond this point.

 

No Jamie, you did it wrong!

 

If I knew how expensive before I got started flying, before I started dreaming as a kid, before it was "too late" I would have run away screaming!  Instead I fell in love/became addicted and now it is too late.  See you need to follow the lead of a heroine crack dealer.  First week is free.  Now I will pay anything for my next "hit".  My airplane needs something, certified prices, no problem - anything for the green machine, she deserves it.  Avgas has gone up another $1/gallon.  Darn, oh well. Fill-er' up!

[1964-M20E]

Lack of interest by the younger generation I think is the biggest factor. Others a just plain scared to fly in a small plane.

My son 17 has no interest in flying either as a pilot or passenger. He will fly with me but it is a rare occasion maybe one day he will realize what aviation can do for him.

[jackn]

I will say this about Mooneys. We seem to have our fair share of current/former military, ATPs, and CFIs. Once bitten by the bug, you've got it for life.

[John Pleisse]

Multiple factors: costs too much to learn, coinciding loss of PPL population, LSA never took off as our FAA geniuses had hoped, you can buy a ticket on SWA to Buffalo for $49, hostile liberal democratic politics, a more impotent AOPA and NBAA, development running small airports out of town, lack of tort reform causing cumbersome liability exposure......and soon........... Rosie O'Donald running the EPA could be our last nail in the coffin.

 

I will still teach my young sons to fly and hope for the best.

[Piloto]

I don’t know where Avgas prices will be in 2015, but I do know the three fundamental rules of forecasting.

1. With respect to a future price (say Avgas), only forecast that it is going to go up or down, but do not give an actual level.  You have at least a 50 probability of being right.
2. If the forecast must specify the level of the higher or lower price, do not specify the time period at which this will occur (ie the price of Avgas will rise to $10 per gallon).  This way you can always argue for more time.
3. If you must specify a price level and date, forecast frequently and hope that nobody remembers the earlier forecasts.

Anyone who can accurately forecast future events on a consistent basis probably retired a long time ago, and if they are aviation oriented, they are in all likelihood flying a TBM or better.

 

Are you a palm reader? They go by the same Obama rules, no dates, no figures, just "maybe"

 

AVGAS is already over $9/gal at many FBOs. I have never seen AVGAS price gone down from a previous year. History can help you a lot in forecasting the future.

 

José

[ChrisH]

With deregulation of air-carriers airfares have plummeted in real terms, while GA costs have risen faster than inflation. My take is cost/benefit is going the wrong direction, and as we all know the cost side is not getting any near term relief (other than plummeting used airframe value). 

 

However, my opinion is that GA isn't doing enough to improve the benefit side of the coin. AOPA seems to be limited to fighting to maintain status-quo (limit GA field closing, keep user fees out of the system) instead of finding ways to promote GA.

 

GA infrastructure (airports, FOB's, equipment) will improve if we can open the doors to a broader audience, and that doesn't necessarily mean pilots. Look at the success of operators trying new business models (jumpjet, surfair).  Given the state of TSA, I would think that there's a large pool of people that would find the benefits of private travel are worth a marginal increase of cost if we can get the message out, and offer products at entry level prices (pistons to turbo-props not luxury turbofans). That said, perhaps people smarter than me have figured out that such a profitable market opportunity doesn't exist. 

[fantom]

Think back, my friends, to what in your youth, caused your aviation passion to take root.

 

Then ask yourself if that environment; those motivators, desires and values still exist.

 

All too often I suspect, the answer is no.

 

Times moves on and things change. Enjoy it while you can!

[John Pleisse]

Public Enemy No.1.

 

[Mooneymite]

Lack of interest by the younger generation I think is the biggest factor. Others a just plain scared to fly in a small plane.

My son 17 has no interest in flying either as a pilot or passenger. He will fly with me but it is a rare occasion maybe one day he will realize what aviation can do for him.

 

 

Bingo!

 

This is the sad truth.

 

When I started flying for an airline, kids always wanted to come to the cockpit and look around; by the time I retired, I couldn't remember the last time a young person wanted to see the cockpit, or ask a question about the airplane!  Our life-blood is new blood and now, young people far prefer technology via screen to ho-hum airplanes.

 

Add in the cost difference between "screen" technology and getting a private license and you have a pretty daunting up-hill battle for attracting young people.  I now refer to them as "screen-agers".  Those are the kids who used to be attracted to flying.

 

Since retiring from the airline I've been flying biz-jets.  Not a single young person has evinced any interest in aviation what-so-ever.  All they want to do is take a seat in the back and play on their iPad/gameboy/DS, etc.  The only aircraft capability they care about is, "Do you have wi-fi on board?"  Aviation needs passionate people to keep it from becoming "just another job".  Certainly there are still young individuals who have the bug, but it is not widespread.

 

I don't know what the answer is, but I'm not optimistic.  I suspect that U.S. aviation will look a lot like European aviation by the time we hang up our headsets.

[larryb]

Aviation always has been expensive, and always will be. Sure, I wish things were cheaper. I don't believe it's the economy that's holding GA back. I fly frequently to Truckee, CA. Charter jets come and go frequently. Lots of people have enough money to fly their own Mooney if they wanted to. Lots of boats on Lake Tahoe, or your own local marina, cost more than a Mooney. Lots of RV's on the highway cost more than a Mooney. And those RV's get much worse mileage   Lots of people pay more on their kitchen remodel with granite and stainless appliances than a Mooney costs. One year tuition at a private gradeschool costs as much as I pay to own and operate my aircraft for that same year.

 

I believe there are two main causes: Safety and difficulty of getting your license.

 

On the safety front, as a society we are much more risk-averse than in the past. Think about your airbags, anti-lock brakes, and traction control in your car. Think about bicycle helmet safety laws. Now think about how every small plane crash makes the news. Public perception is that small planes are very dangerous.

 

On the PPL. You can go buy your yacht, RV, and fancy car, get in and go. No training required. But the airplane, that requires lots of training and time. People don't want to take the time. It is a big barrier.

[TWinter]

Aviation always has been expensive, and always will be. Sure, I wish things were cheaper. I don't believe it's the economy that's holding GA back. I fly frequently to Truckee, CA. Charter jets come and go frequently. Lots of people have enough money to fly their own Mooney if they wanted to. Lots of boats on Lake Tahoe, or your own local marina, cost more than a Mooney. Lots of RV's on the highway cost more than a Mooney. And those RV's get much worse mileage   Lots of people pay more on their kitchen remodel with granite and stainless appliances than a Mooney costs. One year tuition at a private gradeschool costs as much as I pay to own and operate my aircraft for that same year.

 

I believe there are two main causes: Safety and difficulty of getting your license.

 

On the safety front, as a society we are much more risk-averse than in the past. Think about your airbags, anti-lock brakes, and traction control in your car. Think about bicycle helmet safety laws. Now think about how every small plane crash makes the news. Public perception is that small planes are very dangerous.

 

On the PPL. You can go buy your yacht, RV, and fancy car, get in and go. No training required. But the airplane, that requires lots of training and time. People don't want to take the time. It is a big barrier.

Prime example..HLN News this morning. Headliner...Small plane crashes into a house. Pilot does survive and walks out to basically tell the owners " Sorry, I ran out of fuel".  No injury, No fatality..just property damage and stupid flight planning, but the media thinks it a headliner. This makes people scared of our small aircraft.

[Jeff_S]

Kids still love airplanes. I know this from being on the static display for two years at our local PDK Good Neighbor day. You had to stand guard to keep them from climbing all over everything. The problem is there aren't many good avenues to translate this raw interest into meaningful long-term enthusiasm. EAA does as good a job as anybody with the Young Eagle program, but then you get to the other part of the equation which others have mentioned: cost. Most kids, no matter how enthusiastic, aren't able to maintain long-term interest unless they are part of a piloting family, or they pursue it as a profession.

 

Also, as a country we've lost some of the adventure and motivation that I think also contributed to the "glory days" of GA.  This all happened right about the time the space race was heating up, and people were setting air speed and altitude records, and all this was in the news to feed the general interest. Even just the advent of convenient jet travel helped fuel the passion. But our big national initiatives now are about...well, actually, I don't KNOW what our big national initiatives are about.  That's probably the start of whole different thread.