NickG Posted January 14 Report Posted January 14 What on earth is this guy talking about? As a Vref subscriber, I'm really worried LOL.... https://vref.com/news/episode-19-the-ladder-is-gone-why-new-aircraft-no-longer-make-sense-the-way-they-used-to-1-14-26/
IvanP Posted January 14 Report Posted January 14 Did not know that Mooney is still selling new planes.
PT20J Posted January 14 Report Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, IvanP said: Did not know that Mooney is still selling new planes. It has an Acclaim Ultra that they've been trying to finish and sell for quite some time (see the website). I'm pretty sure if you wrote a check for $1.8MM it could be yours!
Tom F Posted January 14 Report Posted January 14 I listened to that article and was wondering the exact same thing.
201Steve Posted January 15 Report Posted January 15 2 hours ago, Nico1 said: The script sounds AI written Not AI. It’s the owner of VREF talking about airplane valuations and casually drops the bomb that Mooney is getting back in business with a $1.8mm bird
NickG Posted January 15 Author Report Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, 201Steve said: Not AI. It’s the owner of VREF talking about airplane valuations and casually drops the bomb that Mooney is getting back in business with a $1.8mm bird Yeah, I was wondering if that was the case - but then he talks about Acclaim(s)... 1
Schllc Posted January 15 Report Posted January 15 3 hours ago, PT20J said: It has an Acclaim Ultra that they've been trying to finish and sell for quite some time (see the website). I'm pretty sure if you wrote a check for $1.8MM it could be yours! Trying so hard they don’t respond to inquiries about purchasing. I don’t think they wanted to spend the money to do it. At any price.
201Steve Posted January 15 Report Posted January 15 2 hours ago, NickG said: Yeah, I was wondering if that was the case - but then he talks about Acclaim(s)... It was weird. If there’s zero truth to it, we can write off what Vref thinks about aircraft value.
Jeff_S Posted January 15 Report Posted January 15 I'm listening to this same podcast right now and I can't verify anything about this $1.8M Acclaim. But whether or not this plane actually exists, the underlying tenets of the podcast seem solid, which is that the whole pricing ladder for airplanes has gone away. The market just isn't there for people to buy new airplanes with increasing capability as they move up the ladder. The new multi-millionaires buying into aviation now are looking at turboprops. Hell, I would too if I had the money. But the used market still exists so that's where most of us live.
Trogdor Posted January 15 Report Posted January 15 He did what I thought was quite a good talk for the ABS folks on the used Bonanza market. He focused on "absorption rate" as a tell-tale sign on the state of the market as well as how to deal with damage and/or damage history and its effect on price. Didn't know he had a dedicated podcast (of course he does!). As a corollary, I'm not sure how many folks saw the Busch->Braly talk on Savvy's channel, but they did speak to the state of the used market, specifically single-engine piston, and Busch seemed obviously frustrated that the price of a new plane (see his "Cadillac ratio") is preventing what was his trajectory to a twin (I am reading into it a bit, but based on prior public conversations from his other media appearances I think that is what he was getting at). Braly responded that we are going to have to think about things differently due to the "geriatric" nature of the fleet since the price of anything new is ridiculous and there is no stomach for making new planes given the broken/expensive certification process. I know a lot of people are banking on MOSIAC to change all of this. I'm not sure that is a good bet yet.
M20F Posted January 21 Report Posted January 21 I have a $1.8M Executive available, I respond to all requests unless you are on my ignore list. Let’s do a deal! 5
skykrawler Posted January 22 Report Posted January 22 A Piper M350 might be a better choice for that money. Pressurized and all.
hazek Posted January 22 Report Posted January 22 1 hour ago, skykrawler said: A Piper M350 might be a better choice for that money. Pressurized and all. Exactly! I saw this today: https://www.planecheck.com/?ent=da&id=63013 Who the hell buys a SR22T instead of this!
WilliamR Posted January 22 Report Posted January 22 I know. A new 350 vs SR22 G7 Turbo or G7+ are only about $500,000 different in price. If you can't afford that difference you can't afford to own a plane.
toto Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 9 hours ago, hazek said: Exactly! I saw this today: https://www.planecheck.com/?ent=da&id=63013 Who the hell buys a SR22T instead of this! For a long time, I thought a PA46 was in my future - but the useful load is really awful. Cirrus has made serious payload gains over the years. The M350 has about 300lbs full-fuel payload, while the SR-22T is more like 700. So you end up flying around in the flight levels by yourself in the Piper, or you can take your family in the Cirrus
Crawfish Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 The older PA46 has the best useful loads outta the lineup. Which is twofold benefit they have continentals that are easier to run LOP so you need less fuel for the mission and you already started with a better useful load.
toto Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 58 minutes ago, Crawfish said: The older PA46 has the best useful loads outta the lineup. Which is twofold benefit they have continentals that are easier to run LOP so you need less fuel for the mission and you already started with a better useful load. That’s true - full fuel payload has only gone down over time. But the old Malibus eat cylinders, and have expensive recurring mx items. Don’t get me wrong - I’m a Piper owner, and I like the PA-46, but it feels like a lot of compromises. A 1984 Malibu vs a 1999 Cirrus is actually a much harder choice than a 2026 M350 vs a 2026 SR-22T. I think the Cirrus payload wins over the Piper pressurization for today’s models.
hazek Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 4 hours ago, toto said: The M350 has about 300lbs full-fuel payload, while the SR-22T is more like 700. Oof oh ok. Well it makes sense 350hp would give you only that.
cbarry Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 Not to digress too much, but IMO the most critical component in the equation of market value of the traditional piston aircraft fleet (new or used) will be the viability of a long term compatible and ample fuel supply. A TAS of 0 cancels out the joy of “cleared direct!”
toto Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 19 minutes ago, cbarry said: Not to digress too much, but IMO the most critical component in the equation of market value of the traditional piston aircraft fleet (new or used) will be the viability of a long term compatible and ample fuel supply. Maybe so. For whatever reason, there’s never been much US interest in diesels - either as a new ac or as a retrofit. Diamond is well placed for a 100LL sunset with the DA-50/DA-62, which are gorgeous aircraft that will burn Jet-A all day long. I’m not sure why US buyers seem to have a collective “yawn” about 100LL going away. Cirrus and Textron haven’t seemed to embrace non-100LL powerplants. The diesel 182 was quietly dropped after a few years with dismal sales.
Schllc Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 It is an interesting conundrum. What will continental and lycoming do if 100ll is gone? one would think they should be looking for alternatives, and the FAA should be looking for ways to facilitate a transition. Computer controlled ignition and engine control could solve all of these problems, without diesel/jet fuel. why are we still flying 1930’s tech? the FAA makes it nearly impossible, by waging wars of attrition. its time for a new set of rules for part 91. 1
Schllc Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, toto said: I’m not sure why US buyers seem to have a collective “yawn” about 100LL going away. What are buyers supposed to do? We are boxed in by the FAA. The manufacturers who will have no business left are the ones who should be doing something other than the collective yawn.
hazek Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 53 minutes ago, Schllc said: why are we still flying 1930’s tech? Well we all know what the answer is, don't we: Small market, huge costs to certify new stuff. New stuff breaks and people sue. 1
toto Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Schllc said: What are buyers supposed to do? We are boxed in by the FAA. The manufacturers who will have no business left are the ones who should be doing something other than the collective yawn. I was referring specifically to diesel sales. If purchasers of new aircraft were purchasing diesel aircraft that could burn Jet-A, we would be in a somewhat different situation today. The manufacturers (short-sighted, indeed) were just making the aircraft that buyers wanted. If every Cirrus and Textron aircraft had been sold with a diesel powerplant over the past 20 years, there would be more incentive for the retrofit market and a lot less pressure on UL alternatives. Or if buyers had gone to Diamond or 182 diesels in droves, there would have been a strong indication of interest and an incentive for Cirrus to explore diesel. I’m not sure why the 50-year deprecation of leaded avgas hasn’t produced more urgency for manufacturers and buyers, but clearly it hasn’t. And I know that diesel isn’t a magic solution - it has its own problems. But 100LL going away isn’t one of them
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