Should Tesla buy Mooney?

[mike_elliott]

here is my usage last month

2019 p100D model X

I did drive 600 mi RT to Fort lauderdale (red supercharger bar, but that is free to me) cused Banyon's free tesla charger. Other grey bars are when I take dog to dog park, also free.

Tesla owners are a lot like Mooney owners. They love them, because, well, they are awesome just like Mooneys

 

 

 

[dylanac]

32 minutes ago, N9656G said:

Okay Mooniacs, between the new, old and retired. How many of us would pick up and move to keep the dream alive? My wife would not be too happy, but I am sure she would come. GA is dying because we are letting it.

We are NOT inspiring the next generation. They are stuck in a tic-toc enduced time warp and we need to pull them out. We need to get kids/teens to the airport and the AP shop.

We were all inspired? Why the hell have we given up on inspiring others? I BET if 28-35 year olds knew they could purchase a mooney on a 20 year loan and fly it for less then their Porshe/Suburban lease or auto loan...they would JUMP on an airplane vs. a flashy car.

Yes things have become more expensive and quickly. Parts more limited and harder to find but I think this is our fault. With all the tools in the world to share how amazing aviation is now, we are doing a terriable job at inspiring the next generation to get into this. Yes it's expensive. Yes access is limited, but that's life. We need to teach people to WORK to put themselves in the position they want to be in life. 

GA is NOT dying. GA pilots that inspiried us current pilots ARE. So time to do our part and get inspiring...

This 100%. I'm 23 and GA is in a pretty sad state. I got my PPL in college and worked as a line boy to help pay for my addiction. The only way I was able to get into owning was by buying, rebuilding, and flipping undesirable, neglected planes. Lots of sweat equity cleaning up some real neglected birds. In the process I got to meet some, erm, undesirable people. I'd say more than half of the planes in our 50+ hangars didn't move the 4 years I worked there. None of the owners were even remotely interested in getting them moving or in annual or renting them, none of that. So they sit. Meanwhile, the divide between good, flying planes and planes that have been sitting grows larger while the cost of parts/restoration goes up. While few and far between, even worse are some of the guys that are still flying. If the attitude of some of these owners is at all common, and from my experience it is, GA will remain a "rich old white man" exclusive and for most people, perception is reality. It is marketing that drives what's cool, not the other way around. This is why people my age would rather buy flashy cars. Would chicks rather be rolling around town being shown off to all her friends from a Porsche or in a ratted out 1960s 172 that pukes oil everywhere, burns leaded gasoline, and has an original interior complete with cigarette burns from 1975? Even nice, more modern looking Moonies that have a good interior, paint, and avionics panel that wasn't hacked together is easily $200k+. Most people spend 30 years paying for a house that costs that much.

Fortunately, I got to meet a great number of people my age that have managed to make their dreams of flying a reality. Unfortunately, few of them continue on to purchase planes or even rent anymore. Judging by the amount of people in the 25-35 age group I see out flying, even fewer of them make it a priority once families start to happen. That's a shame because my rose-colored glasses view GA as the ultimate family vacation tool.

Musk has the ability to move crowds and influence people. Even with his talents there, I have a hard time believing he could sell GA planes specifically to people because of the immense financial and training hurdles in place. Of those that already have their license, I can't imagine very many of them would welcome electric planes with open arms. Look at how many people are still opposed to unleaded AvGas because it costs more and weighs more? They can't see past their own ways to understand this is better for the world and GA. How many airports have we seen California force out using the "Small Planes Still Burn Leaded Fuel That Was Banned Decades Ago" headline? Perception is reality...

[Kmac]

3 minutes ago, dylanac said:

 has previously stated he would not do airplanes.

I have read that he is "all of the above" to transition to sustainable energy.  If that is true, he would need wiggle room in that statement...

 

14 minutes ago, dylanac said:

Even if you could sell an electric plane with the same useful load and range as a 100LL on, there are many pilots who are too stubborn to adopt it. Look at how many people now swear they will never get an electric car.

Well, the way things are progressing nobody will have a choice...

 

2 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

My opinion that a fully composite airframe with electric propulsion with the accompanying changes aerodynamically would require FAR 23 Certification, which would be a show stopper for Mooney, but for someone with Billions? Not so much.

A good reason to stick with the design at the beginning of this thread instead of designing a marginally better new aircraft at billions of dollars...

All that engineering and certification cost has to be passed on to the customer...

I would buy the Mooney from the first page of this thread for $500k, maybe slightly more...

 

 

[N9656G]

28 minutes ago, dylanac said:

This 100%. I'm 23 and GA is in a pretty sad state. I got my PPL in college and worked as a line boy to help pay for my addiction. The only way I was able to get into owning was by buying, rebuilding, and flipping undesirable, neglected planes. Lots of sweat equity cleaning up some real neglected birds. In the process I got to meet some, erm, undesirable people. I'd say more than half of the planes in our 50+ hangars didn't move the 4 years I worked there. None of the owners were even remotely interested in getting them moving or in annual or renting them, none of that. So they sit. Meanwhile, the divide between good, flying planes and planes that have been sitting grows larger while the cost of parts/restoration goes up. While few and far between, even worse are some of the guys that are still flying. If the attitude of some of these owners is at all common, and from my experience it is, GA will remain a "rich old white man" exclusive and for most people, perception is reality. It is marketing that drives what's cool, not the other way around. This is why people my age would rather buy flashy cars. Would chicks rather be rolling around town being shown off to all her friends from a Porsche or in a ratted out 1960s 172 that pukes oil everywhere, burns leaded gasoline, and has an original interior complete with cigarette burns from 1975? Even nice, more modern looking Moonies that have a good interior, paint, and avionics panel that wasn't hacked together is easily $200k+. Most people spend 30 years paying for a house that costs that much.

Fortunately, I got to meet a great number of people my age that have managed to make their dreams of flying a reality. Unfortunately, few of them continue on to purchase planes or even rent anymore. Judging by the amount of people in the 25-35 age group I see out flying, even fewer of them make it a priority once families start to happen. That's a shame because my rose-colored glasses view GA as the ultimate family vacation tool.

Musk has the ability to move crowds and influence people. Even with his talents there, I have a hard time believing he could sell GA planes specifically to people because of the immense financial and training hurdles in place. Of those that already have their license, I can't imagine very many of them would welcome electric planes with open arms. Look at how many people are still opposed to unleaded AvGas because it costs more and weighs more? They can't see past their own ways to understand this is better for the world and GA. How many airports have we seen California force out using the "Small Planes Still Burn Leaded Fuel That Was Banned Decades Ago" headline? Perception is reality...

Straight up making me cry bro LOL I told my wife when I met her at 19 (27 now) I would own an airplane before we had a house and kids. She knew where my priorities were. She stuck by the old ratty rental 172s and a commache that was older then both of us combined… now that we fly our mooney m20J around she’s really becoming a believer. However when I think back to all the things that had to go right for me to make this work there definitely was a little bit of luck involved. However a lot of that luck was created by me opening my mouth and asking for things that were out of reach and unrealistic for people my age… but I love my life thinking “what is the worst someone could say no right?” It’s amazing what ask and you shall receive has done for me. 

[dylanac]

3 minutes ago, N9656G said:

Straight up making me cry bro LOL I told my wife when I met her at 19 (27 now) I would own an airplane before we had a house and kids. She knew where my priorities were. She stuck by the old ratty rental 172s and a commache that was older then both of us combined… now that we fly our mooney m20J around she’s really becoming a believer. However when I think back to all the things that had to go right for me to make this work there definitely was a little bit of luck involved. However a lot of that luck was created by me opening my mouth and asking for things that were out of reach and unrealistic for people my age… but I love my life thinking “what is the worst someone could say no right?” It’s amazing what ask and you shall receive has done for me. 

I feel this. I do have some close friends that are also very involved in aviation but you have to be very passionate to make it work and it has to be a priority in your life, financial and otherwise. I find it hard to imagine life without it, like going from riding a bike to getting a car. It opens the world to me. I really hope there is some sort of revolution that can revitalize the propulsion of our little planes. I think the small planes like the Dark Aero 1 show promise from an ease of manufacture/efficiency standpoint. There are a lot of smart people working on this but until there is some breakthrough, it's not going to be lithium ion in our planes.

We can all do our part to try and spread GA to younger people.

[A64Pilot]

Our current Mooney’s can’t be built with enough profit margin to make money on, as has been said it took bigger motors etc so the price could be raised significantly to get by. (it’s not much if any more work to install an IO-550 than an IO-360) yet of course the sales price is much higher.

A tesla Model 3 is a very “buildable” if you look at one it’s rather simply put together.

One thing coming soon to Tesla is die casting, what used to be a couple hundred individual pieces that had to be assemblied will be just a few. Rumor is Musk was looking at a Hot wheels car and wondered why can’t we do this full scale

So he had the biggest die casting machine ever made built and will I assume soon be die casting frames, and make the battery structural which obviously simplifies  construction and decreases weight.

https://www.designnews.com/automotive-engineering/teslas-switch-giga-press-die-castings-model-3-eliminates-370-parts

I assume IF he were to begin building aircraft he would go heavily robotic and of course composites and not hand built like all the older designs are.

Edited March 9, 2022 by A64Pilot

[N9656G]

7 minutes ago, dylanac said:

I feel this. I do have some close friends that are also very involved in aviation but you have to be very passionate to make it work and it has to be a priority in your life, financial and otherwise. I find it hard to imagine life without it, like going from riding a bike to getting a car. It opens the world to me. I really hope there is some sort of revolution that can revitalize the propulsion of our little planes. I think the small planes like the Dark Aero 1 show promise from an ease of manufacture/efficiency standpoint. There are a lot of smart people working on this but until there is some breakthrough, it's not going to be lithium ion in our planes.

We can all do our part to try and spread GA to younger people.

It is definitely a financial priority but the thing it unlocks are almost worth dying for. As you said I would not know my life without it. Next thing is trying to figure out how to own/operate a part 91 twin Cessna charter to let 20+- rich locals pay for my addiction and leverage my experience flying off to far lands for quick 24 hour getaways, day skiing in VT, dinner in Charleston, beach day in nags head. That’s my 10 year goal. I’m going to fight and do my best to keep it alive and the allure of private travel there. 

[mike_elliott]

Good for you! Aviation needs the younger generation to step up to survive. Us old farts cant pull on the rope forever. Consider coming to the Mooney Summit in Sept, where you can network with us old guys, and possibly pick up part of that rope.

[A64Pilot]

GA isn’t dying from a lack of money available to do it, that's evidenced by the rapid growth of biz jets, but what really drove me to understand that was when we were living on our Sailboat.

In South Fl Particularly there was no shortage of million dollar plus Sportfishermen and other Yachts that would line up and take on a couple of thousand dollars of Diesel at any Marina, I’d look at them and think each one is a King Air.

What was different of course is that if you have the money, you can decide today that you want one and be driving around in it this afternoon, how long does it take to get just a Private Pilot license? How much work is it?

Todays people are only interested in instant gratification mostly, they have no interest in what will take months of study and practice to do. 

They don’t want to fly, they in fact want to be flown, flying is too much work.

[A64Pilot]

9 minutes ago, N9656G said:

It is definitely a financial priority but the thing it unlocks are almost worth dying for. As you said I would not know my life without it. Next thing is trying to figure out how to own/operate a part 91 twin Cessna charter to let 20+- rich locals pay for my addiction and leverage my experience flying off to far lands for quick 24 hour getaways, day skiing in VT, dinner in Charleston, beach day in nags head. That’s my 10 year goal. I’m going to fight and do my best to keep it alive and the allure of private travel there. 

I’m not aware of any part 91 legal charters, you mean 135?

[RobertGary1]

2 hours ago, Kmac said:

You betcha...

100LL is dying...or being killed...

ICE is dying...or being killed...

Our airframes are dying...

Mooney is on its absolute last gasp...

GA is dying...probably quicker that we all like to admit or realize...

 

Now here is an idea, albeit grandiose and slightly out of the box...

 

I would sell everything and move to Kerrville to help make it work...  Elon/Tesla, are you listening?

If GA is dying why are flight schools turning away students and have open offers for cfi’s and 172’s? I can’t remember anytime in the last 20 years there has been more demand. 

[RobertGary1]

And btw the price of airplanes hasn’t skyrocketed because no one wants to buy them. I can’t recall GA ever being this healthy in my 25+ years 

[Kmac]

25 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

Our current Mooney’s can be built with enough profit margin to make money on, as has been said it took bigger motors etc so the price could be raised significantly to get by. (it’s not much if any more work to install an IO-550 than an IO-360) yet of course the sales price is much higher.

I am not sure how many pilots are like me out there...

I stated in another thread, I'd rather buy a new B model Mooney @ $500k than an IO-550 powered, fuel guzzling, ultra complex unit...

I fly for fun, I'm not IFR rated and have no plans to do so...there is no way I would stay current...I fly when it is nice out and, when traveling, arrange my schedule to remotely work until I can make the trip home in good weather... Can't more people do that now and reduce get-there-itis? 

 

There are already options for high performance single engine aircraft and if I wanted one I would buy a Cirrus over a Mooney M20V, however, I would buy a new M20B, if available, over a Cirrus...

 

An M20V and a Cirrus SR22 does 300% of my mission...aren't you supposed to buy the aircraft that does 90%?

 

 

 

[cwaters]

I would love a full electric mooney, I love my J but my hang up is that my current mission is 500nm and I do so without stopping so 3.5 hrs ish and wife and I are a few states away at the lake with family. I can't do that in an electric version can I ? at least not yet and for longer trips I feel the time difference is exacerbated. 

I could see it for local (<250nm) trips where youre really only going 1-2 hrs +reserves but if I want to take a vacation thats 500-1000nm away that seems like it would take too long with recharging to make the trip. And I don't know about you but I can't afford a local trip plane and a long trip plane (one electric and one ICE respectively) 

[Kmac]

2 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

If GA is dying why are flight schools turning away students and have open offers for cfi’s and 172’s? I can’t remember anytime in the last 20 years there has been more demand. 

You have to start somewhere...

[N9656G]

16 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

I’m not aware of any part 91 legal charters, you mean 135?

I’m discussing a 20 owner part 91 operated jet share type model. Similar to a NetJets operating under part 91 but flying to part 135 standards. 

[RobertGary1]

Also average age of all pilots is actually dropping since 2018

In 2018 there are only 36k student pilots. 2021 kept to over 50k!!

The faa estimates there are more than 100k more active pilots than 2018

the faa stats do not support GA “dying” 

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/media/2021-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx

 

[N9656G]

26 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

Good for you! Aviation needs the younger generation to step up to survive. Us old farts cant pull on the rope forever. Consider coming to the Mooney Summit in Sept, where you can network with us old guys, and possibly pick up part of that rope.

Where is this !? 

[mike_elliott]

4 minutes ago, N9656G said:

Where is this !? 

www.mooneysummit.com

 

[RobertGary1]

30 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

Good for you! Aviation needs the younger generation to step up to survive. Us old farts cant pull on the rope forever. Consider coming to the Mooney Summit in Sept, where you can network with us old guys, and possibly pick up part of that rope.

So I do have bad news. If you follow TikTok there are enormous number of young, extremely enthusiastic pilots out there. However they consider Mooney an old persons plane. The Cirus for some reason had marketed a more youthful appeal. I think a lot of it is the cockpit looks like a new car vs a Mooney that looks utilitarian 

[Kmac]

2 minutes ago, cwaters said:

I would love a full electric mooney, I love my J but my hang up is that my current mission is 500nm and I do so without stopping so 3.5 hrs ish and wife and I are a few states away at the lake with family. I can't do that in an electric version can I ?

Not the version I propose...you would need to stop...

 

Here is your new trip:

- You would fly for about 2 hours (320nm) and use 180kWh (which you paid $25 for)

- Land at an airport along your route; the software would calculate how long you would need to charge at the Supercharger only needing enough charge to get to your destination, plus reserves, (the software would know if you are on a VFR or IFR flight plan) If VFR you need enough charge to go 180nm plus 30 minutes).  You would need to add about 75kWh to finish your trip while charging at a 250kW charger would take 20 minutes and cost about $22.50.

Your flight will still take 3.5hrs flying time, 20 minutes charge time and about another 15 minutes take off and landing time...

I would say you are looking at 4:05 for the same flight and a total cost of $47.50...

[A64Pilot]

15 minutes ago, Kmac said:

I am not sure how many pilots are like me out there...

I stated in another thread, I'd rather buy a new B model Mooney @ $500k 
 

I think we would all love a 500K mooney, unfortunately that’s not possible probably without any kind of powerplant they way Mooney’s have been constructed in the past.

Think about what an engine cost, back that out of the cost of an airplane, it doesn’t decrease much does it?

A Crop duster the turbine cost 40% of the cost to manufacture an airplane, and that’s OEM price which is a lot less then you and I pay.

But for a small people airplane it’s less than 10% for the engine?

Any electrical propulsion system would cost significantly more than a piston engine, thinking that you can take a battery pack and motor out of a Tesla isn’t realistic, it’s not that simple.

A Lithium pack can combust, the Certification hurdles of that alone are huge, it’s my understanding that by the time Boeing built a fire proof vault to put the 787 battery in, the assembly weighted more than a non combustible battery, the FAA hasn’t forgotten the 787.

I have no idea what an LSA has to meet requirements wise, but bet the FAA would be skeptical of stuffing wings full of combustable batteries?

[Kmac]

4 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said:

EV's are efficient but you like every EV owner exaggerates the efficiency.  Back on page 2 you said showed your actual charging records and said "If anyone is curious, this screenshot is every single charge the car has ever had and a total actual cost, so it’s cost us $180 in electricity to drive close to 4800 miles.". 

• You said you pay $0.14/KWH. 
• $180/0.14 = 1,286 KWH
• 1,286 KWH/4,800 miles = 268 WH/mile  (not 200 WH like you state above)
• That is 3.73 miles per KWH .... Not 5 miles like you state above.

You are claiming efficiencies 34% greater that actual.  When you look at the power your charger is actually consuming it is higher than you see going from the battery to the motor.  There are losses somewhere - in the charger, line losses, running accessories on the car, whatever  - Bottom line you are actually using more electricity than you want everyone to believe.

Don't get me wrong - EV's are efficient.  But please use realistic numbers.  This is classic over promise under deliver which leaves a bad impression on everyone. - yes I know that is how the entire PC industry, information age and Elon Musk grew their businesses but these are airplanes that will fall out of the sky on over promises

 

True that there are losses in charging, however, charging at a Supercharger only charges you for the kWh your vehicle accepted, they don't charge you for their losses.  That is part of the reason that charging at Superchargers are more expensive.

[chriscalandro]

This is an Elon musk cringe thread. 
 

no way is any electric airplane going to be based on a metal airplane. Especially one with a history of not selling units. 
 

it needs to be a light clean sheet composite design, and not a retrofit of something from the 50s or 60s. 
 

Your performance information is fantasy. 
 

Your useful load is bad, your range is bad, your charging strategy is bad. 
 

I just drove my model Y across the country and it was a terrible experience I’d never want to share with my airplane. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by chriscalandro

[cwaters]

17 minutes ago, Kmac said:

Not the version I propose...you would need to stop...

 

Here is your new trip:

- You would fly for about 2 hours (320nm) and use 180kWh (which you paid $25 for)

- Land at an airport along your route; the software would calculate how long you would need to charge at the Supercharger only needing enough charge to get to your destination, plus reserves, (the software would know if you are on a VFR or IFR flight plan) If VFR you need enough charge to go 180nm plus 30 minutes).  You would need to add about 75kWh to finish your trip while charging at a 250kW charger would take 20 minutes and cost about $22.50.

Your flight will still take 3.5hrs flying time, 20 minutes charge time and about another 15 minutes take off and landing time...

I would say you are looking at 4:05 for the same flight and a total cost of $47.50...

I would argue the flying time would increase would it not given the extra take off, climb and landing? currently thats a non-stop trip. 

 

Like I said for the 'shorter' trips maybe sub 500nm it makes a good case but longer than that and you start adding hours to a trip not minutes. I've been looking hard at a tesla to replace one of our house cars for more everyday commute and driving but then still use the ICE car for longer trips where dropping off the interstate for 15 min per stop to grab gas a bathroom is preferred to ~30 min per stop on 10+ hr road trips 

 

I think anything within 1 stop EV range (plane or car) the EV wins (in my book) but much past that and the time just seems to add up too quick 

 

I'f I'm flying far enough for the mooney to need fuel then that trip in the EV would be too long (I'm assuming based on the times presented here) 

 

I think there is a use case for it and would love to see it thrive, I think power density and market size are too lacking right now but in my lifetime (29 now) I think it will happen