Should Tesla buy Mooney?

[mike_elliott]

13 hours ago, dylanac said:

He's a great salesman, nothing more.

That might be shorting his skillset a bit. He has disrupted the energy, transportation, space, AI, robotics and possibly telecom industries with first principle thinking and solutions, not smoke and mirror parachutes,  northstar systems, ecoflex engines etc. His zero dollar advertising budget doesn't allow him the spin time the likes of SAIC funded GM gets. He has a giant set of clappers and is not afraid to put it all on the line like he did with Tesla.

And yet so many really despise him because he isnt their "bitch" and cant be controlled on both sides of our divided aisle

Looks like his company, spacex, might be US's sole supplier of rocket engines in the near future now. 

Yea, Im a fanboy because, well, he has done things that are just remarkable. Hopefully, for the sake of Mooney's name, he ends up with the production certificate to put something in the sky 15 years from now we all go "wow" over...no parachute needed.

[Hank]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:58 AM, Kmac said:

A 200hp Lycoming engine puts out about 120hp at 12000ft and a clean J model should cruise around 160 knots.  If you operate the 220kWh Tesla-Mooney at 120hp/90kW, which should equal 160k at 12k feet, the run time would be 2.44 hours while the 150kWh would run for 1.66 hours.

Let's see . . .

• 2.44 hours - IFR reserves = 1.69 hours = 1 hr 41 minutes
• 1.66 hours - IFR reserves = 0.91 hours = 55 minutes 
• 2.44 hours x 80% supercharger tipoff = 1.95 hours = 1 hour 57 minutes -IFR reserves = 1 hour 12 minutes 
• 1.66 hours x 80% supercharger tipoff = 1.32 hours = 1 hour 20 minutes - IFR reserves = 35 minutes flight time

Who will pay current new airplane prices, ir even half of them, to be able to fly for one hour plus or minus thirty minutes, then spend an hour recharging to go that much further? My current 2 hour flight to see mom would require three one hour stops, totaling 4-1/2 hours minimum time; I can drive there in 6 hours and nit need her to meet me. But wait, with one more hour to charge and another half hour flight, I can reach an airport with rental cars (now at six hours flight time)! That just omits the 20 minite drive to Mt home field, 10 minutes to preflight and the 40-minute drive back to her place fro. The field with cars . . . .

Sure, please take my money so I can fly places even slower than I can drive there. Of course, that's comparing against drive time in an ICE car, and electric car would require at least one charging stop driving each way, so the flight time may be pretty close to the driving time . . . .

On the other hand, keep all of your electric vehicles. They ain't worth nothing for traveling!!

[jetdriven]

13 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

Thete are huge losses in drilling for, transporting and refining fossil fuels too, but frankly I don’t care.

I’m not a greenie nor a tree hugger, the only number that’s relevant to me is the $180 per 4,800 miles one.

However the energy content of a gallon of gas is 33.7 KWH. A model three Tesla IS actually roughly 95% efficient, I’m talking the car, not the system that makes and delivers the power, just as we don’t include those numbers for an ICE car.

 

On edit, the Wife drives 75 miles every day to work, that along with whatever we drive on weekends cost us $60 per month.

To drive our Miata would cost 4.25 times that, just including fuel

If you Figure the cap cost of a 60-70k car, the opex is cheaper by far, but the capex of the 60-70k vehicle more than exceeds the total cost of the Miata. It’s cooler.  It’s not close to being cheaper. 

[Kmac]

7 hours ago, Hank said:

Let's see . . .

• 2.44 hours - IFR reserves = 1.69 hours = 1 hr 41 minutes
• 1.66 hours - IFR reserves = 0.91 hours = 55 minutes 
• 2.44 hours x 80% supercharger tipoff = 1.95 hours = 1 hour 57 minutes -IFR reserves = 1 hour 12 minutes 
• 1.66 hours x 80% supercharger tipoff = 1.32 hours = 1 hour 20 minutes - IFR reserves = 35 minutes flight time

Who will pay current new airplane prices, ir even half of them, to be able to fly for one hour plus or minus thirty minutes, then spend an hour recharging to go that much further? My current 2 hour flight to see mom would require three one hour stops, totaling 4-1/2 hours minimum time; I can drive there in 6 hours and nit need her to meet me. But wait, with one more hour to charge and another half hour flight, I can reach an airport with rental cars (now at six hours flight time)! That just omits the 20 minite drive to Mt home field, 10 minutes to preflight and the 40-minute drive back to her place fro. The field with cars . . . .

Sure, please take my money so I can fly places even slower than I can drive there. Of course, that's comparing against drive time in an ICE car, and electric car would require at least one charging stop driving each way, so the flight time may be pretty close to the driving time . . . .

On the other hand, keep all of your electric vehicles. They ain't worth nothing for traveling!!

That is some spin...

2.44 hours at 160+ knots@120hp@12k ft...

you can obviously reduce power to extend range further...

I didn't post all power settings...below is another example:

I could operate my C at about 85hp at 12k ft and cruise at 125kt or so

You could operate your new electric Tesla powered Mooney, which has aerodynamic improvements over my old C, at 85hp(63kW)@12k ft and, I'm guessing, at least 130 knots...

Your new run time would be 3.49 hours...

[N201MKTurbo]

When people are running right up to their reserve limit on every leg, I see more off airport landings...

[A64Pilot]

7 hours ago, jetdriven said:

If you Figure the cap cost of a 60-70k car, the opex is cheaper by far, but the capex of the 60-70k vehicle more than exceeds the total cost of the Miata. It’s cooler.  It’s not close to being cheaper. 

We paid just over 40K for the Model 3, average cost of a new vehicle is 47K, so the Model 3 is significantly less than average

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-car-prices-inflation-shortages-semiconductor-chips-2022-1

[Kmac]

@Hank

I very much appreciate the response and critique...

All of the specific software requirements were obviously not included in the first page proposal, however, one of the settings would be minimum power for straight and level flight which the motor could automatically reduce to for vfr and ifr reserves

 

It would be hard to "convert" you to a belief that what I propose is viable through Mooneyspace.

 

I know you have a C model and your current two hour trip should then be about 280NM

Here would be your new trip with the Tesla powered Mooney to visit your mother:

- You would obviously begin with a full charge which cost you about $31.

- To cover those same 280NM at 160 knots would take 1.75 hours.

- You would land with about 30% power remaining (well over an hour of reserves).

- If you visit your mom for more than an hour you would have a full charge upon your departure and a 70% charge (154kW @ $0.30) would have cost $46.20 to get you home.

 

It sounds perfect to me...

Each round trip to see your mother would now cost about $67.76 and take you 3.5 hours total instead of 4 hours and $200 in 100LL...

 

 

[A64Pilot]

The numbers for an electric airplane don’t work yet, just like they didn’t work for an electric car with lead acid batteries, if and or when batteries or maybe some kind of capacitor or whatever at least doubles the energy density, then a viable electric airplane will exist, but not at current battery technology.

To start with most range estimates aren’t realistic, if you regularly charge current gen batteries to 100% and discharge close to dead, they won’t last 1/10 as long as of you use only the middle third of the battery, so if you want your electric car battery to last hundreds of thousands of miles, then cut the most often usable range to 1/3, at least by 1/2. Toyota for instance in the Prius would only charge to 80% SOC and discharge to 40%, using of course only 40% capacity at most, but that’s what it took to get tens of thousands of cycles out of a battery.

Very rapid charging also reduces a batteries life, how much is arguable, Toyota for instance rapidly charges its Hybrid batteries and they seem to last.

[A64Pilot]

Average US cost per KWH for electricity was 10c per KWH in 2020, I couldn’t find what it is now, but it’s not 30c, so the cost estimates you give is likely twice what it should be.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183700/us-average-retail-electricity-price-since-1990/

I know Tesla jacks up the price with their Superchargers, they likely do charge 30c, remember it is a for profit thing.

So I guess it’s logical to assume an airport may do as Tesla and more than double the cost of electricity when they sell it to you, so 30c is a logical cost, but if you charge in your hangar it’s likely less than half that.

Edited March 8, 2022 by A64Pilot

[Kmac]

2 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

The numbers for an electric airplane don’t work yet, just like they didn’t work for an electric car with lead acid batteries, if and or when batteries or maybe some kind of capacitor or whatever at least doubles the energy density, then a viable electric airplane will exist, but not at current battery technology.

Very rapid charging also reduces a batteries life, how much is arguable, Toyota for instance rapidly charges its Hybrid batteries and they seem to last.

The numbers that I am working with support viability now in the Mooney airframe with a gross weight of 3200lbs.

 

I have also read articles of Tesla owners who only supercharged their vehicles batteries compared to owners who never supercharge and the degradation is similar.

[Kmac]

2 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

Average US cost per KWH for electricity was 10c per KWH in 2020, I couldn’t find what it is now, but it’s not 30c, so the cost estimates you give is likely twice what it should be.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183700/us-average-retail-electricity-price-since-1990/

I know Tesla jacks up the price with their Superchsrgers, they likely do charge 30c, remember it is a for profit thing.

So I guess it’s logical to assume an airport may do as Tesla and more than double the cost of electricity when they sell it to you, so 30c is a logical cost, but if you charge in your hangar it’s likely less than half that.

I used my current rates...I pay 6.9c supply and 7c distribution for a total of 13.9c/kWh (also estimated for hangar charging)...  When supercharging I see anywhere from 26c to 32c per kWh

Edited March 8, 2022 by Kmac
addition

[Hank]

31 minutes ago, Kmac said:

@Hank

I very much appreciate the response and critique...

All of the specific software requirements were obviously not included in the first page proposal, however, one of the settings would be minimum power for straight and level flight which the motor could automatically reduce to for vfr and ifr reserves

 

It would be hard to "convert" you to a belief that what I propose is viable through Mooneyspace.

 

I know you have a C model and your current two hour trip should then be about 280NM

Here would be your new trip with the Tesla powered Mooney to visit your mother:

- You would obviously begin with a full charge which cost you about $31.

- To cover those same 280NM at 160 knots would take 1.75 hours.

- You would land with about 30% power remaining (well over an hour of reserves).

- If you visit your mom for more than an hour you would have a full charge upon your departure and a 70% charge (154kW @ $0.30) would have cost $46.20 to get you home.

 

It sounds perfect to me...

Each round trip to see your mother would now cost about $67.76 and take you 3.5 hours total instead of 4 hours and $200 in 100LL...

 

 

Except your range numbers ignore takeoff and climb . . . My first hour doesn't go near as far as the second, especially if I have to climb from 684 msl to 12,000 msl.

How many years until small rural airports get chargers? We both live near those, and far from big city fields with glitzy FBOs.

[dylanac]

8 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

That might be shorting his skillset a bit.

Nope, almost everything he has done was taken existing technology, mass produce it, over promise, and under deliver. How long has "full self driving" been promised to be coming "next year" or "next month"?

[A64Pilot]

The only real data we have for excessive milage and of course Supercharging is Tesloop, which has racked up 17,000 miles per month in their small fleet, and they have gone through several batteries for whatever reason.

Those are older cars and the Model 3 is actually a large leap ahead of its more expensive brothers, so it’s thought a model 3 will do much better, butI think Tesloop is out of business now?

Anyway an airplane has several problems to overcome that an auto doesn’t have, an airplane uses a lot of power for a significant time for takeoff and climb, and auto uses high power for only a few seconds, one big reason why say a corvette engine doesn’t work as well as you might think in an airplane.

Battery pack thermal management is a real big issue in EV’s, at least ones with decent sized packs. The early model Tesla’s would go like stink on the drag strip, but when put on a race track after about the first lap the packs overheat and the car slows way down to protect the battery. Model 3 is much, much better but an airplane goes wide open and stays there, not even a race car does that. 

Plus I think your battery pack weight may be a little optimistic, I assume you added the weight of the cells to get there but your saying a 220KWH pack will weigh 1400 lbs.

Going off of memory my 50 KWH pack in my model 3 weighs I think about 833 lbs. NowI’m sure that can be reduced somewhat but not enough to get 220 KWH out of 1400 lbs.

I think viable electric airplanes will happen and the required maintenance when compared to recips will be almost zero, probably wouldn’t even need a constant speed prop for instance, no Mags, plugs, oil changes, fuel system maintenance, fixed prop. It will be a revolution.

Just I don’t think the batteries are there yet.

[Kmac]

Just now, Hank said:

Except your range numbers ignore takeoff and climb . . . My first hour doesn't go near as far as the second, especially if I have to climb from 684 msl to 12,000 msl.

How many years until small rural airports get chargers? We both live near those, and far from big city fields with glitzy FBOs.

Yes, my numbers do ignore take off and climb but also ignore descent and landing for the purpose of this discussion.

A full power climb with the dual RRP70D motors to 12k ft would take about 25kWh while, obviously, the decent could take 0kWh for a similar amount of time...

 

Almost all small rural airports have the infrastructure to support superchargers now.  Superchargers can be installed in days Tesla unveils Supercharger station built in only 8 days thanks to new pre-fabricated system - Electrek

 

I would imagine all airports would welcome superchargers...especially with many airports that are trying to get rid of 100LL and have an issue with it environmentally.

 

[A64Pilot]

23 minutes ago, dylanac said:

Nope, almost everything he has done was taken existing technology, mass produce it, over promise, and under deliver. How long has "full self driving" been promised to be coming "next year" or "next month"?

I read that Elon announced recently that full self driving will be available this year.

I also read that this is the 9th year in a row that he has said that, but full self driving is an option, one for instance I didn’t pay for because I don’t think it’s right around the corner, but if it does become a reality, you can buy it then as all the hardware is in all cars, so he has to want it, there will be Billions in it, because if it becomes real I’m buying it, currently it’s available as a one shot price of 10K or a subscription at $200 a month and it’s month by month with no other fees and you can cancel anytime.

However Autopilot does exist and I love it, really does take a lot of the work out of driving, as does one pedal driving. You don’t realize how stupid it is to have to hold the brake down for a red light until you don’t have to anymore, much less be moving your foot constantly back and forth between two pedals in city driving , with autopilot the car stops if there is a car ahead of you and accelerates when they leave. It does not stop for red lights or stop signs though, you have to do that.

As it’s a visual system it doesn’t like country roads with no lines and dawn and dusk,but it’s wonderful on divided highways.

Tesla last year I think abandoned radar for Autopilot and self driving and is hanging their hat on a pure visual system. I believe they have built some kind of AI supercomputer and as all cars are internet connected using their data in the attempt to teach this supercomputer to drive visually, or so I’ve read. But they won’t consider LIDAR or RADAR for some reason.

Personally I think honest toGod full self driving isn’t going to happen on our existing streets, for instance you see a ball roll into the road between parked cars, you will slow down expecting. a kid to follow, but a full self driving car won’t, or if it does slam on the brakes,then won’t it for every piece of trash that blows across the street?

Sure I can see full self driving on Interstate highways, but city streets and residential ones will be a really tough nut to crack.

Edited March 8, 2022 by A64Pilot

[mike_elliott]

18 minutes ago, dylanac said:

Nope, almost everything he has done was taken existing technology, mass produce it, over promise, and under deliver. How long has "full self driving" been promised to be coming "next year" or "next month"?

oh wow. I could understand your disdain if you relied on solving a massive problem like full self driving to enable you to be able to be mobile today, but Im betting thats not a Tesla in your driveway anyway, so no dog to fight here. Look for the Model Y to be the best selling car, not EV, in the US this year.

But I hear the "big boys" are coming...still, and I hear King is coming out with an AP for us

[Kmac]

24 minutes ago, dylanac said:

Nope, almost everything he has done was taken existing technology, mass produce it, over promise, and under deliver. How long has "full self driving" been promised to be coming "next year" or "next month"?

Lol...not to pile on but I'm pretty sure that the astronauts at the ISS appreciate their supplies...

[mike_elliott]

1 minute ago, Kmac said:

Lol...not to pile on but I'm pretty sure that the astronauts at the ISS appreciate their supplies...

and he stood up com's in Ukraine in less than 24 hrs, something the current admin couldnt get done. Of course he is using existing technology from SpaceX and probably did it as a market ploy. I have learned one thing over the last 5 years, dont bet against Elon. Show me any company with best in class product, hypergrowth industry and arrogant competitors, and I want to invest in them.

[A64Pilot]

I was sitting in Mosquito lagoon watching the first launch of the Falcon heavy, the one that he launched the roadster into a Mars orbit or wherever. The launch was impressive,  but had nothing on watching those two booster come in to land, they were still supersonic until pretty close to landing,  then just before hitting timed perfectly a full burn to stop.

You heard the sonic booms from them, I assume from slowing to subsonic.

That wasn’t hype, that was real, and not even NASA could pull that off

[Kmac]

31 minutes ago, dylanac said:

Nope, almost everything he has done was taken existing technology, mass produce it, over promise, and under deliver. How long has "full self driving" been promised to be coming "next year" or "next month"?

Here is the perfect opportunity to take existing technology (Mooney), the 4680 cells and make a battery pack fit in the airframe.  Mass produce it and promise that it can fly 200knots for 4 hours...then under deliver by only flying 160knots for 2.5 hours or 130 knots for 3.5 hours...

I'll take it!

[N201MKTurbo]

Why would Musk want to buy Mooney if he wanted to get into the electric airplane business? The Mooney airframe doesn't seem conducive to electrification. He would be better off designing an airplane from scratch to be electric.

[A64Pilot]

12 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Why would Musk want to buy Mooney if he wanted to get into the electric airplane business? The Mooney airframe doesn't seem conducive to electrification. He would be better off designing an airplane from scratch to be electric.

To get the Production Certificate. Buy a PC today and you can be building aircraft tomorrow, Start from scratch and it would honestly probably take years unless you have some serious political pull, and even then it wouldn’t be quick, a PC entails an entire Quality control system and Process specs for every thing you do from welding, painting, forming parts everything has a Process spec. You get all of it if you buy a PC.

I’d bet Mooney’s actual sales price is probably less than is woud cost to stand up a Production Certificate and all the Process specs are Grandfathered in, for instance Thrush had process specs for Alodine tanks and cadmium. plating, we dropped the Cad plating but getting those in with todays environmental restrictions would be tough.

‘Even if you had no interest in the TC, the PC is worth money. But for instance without a PC, a TC is not worth much.

Edited March 8, 2022 by A64Pilot

[mike_elliott]

13 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Why would Musk want to buy Mooney if he wanted to get into the electric airplane business? The Mooney airframe doesn't seem conducive to electrification. He would be better off designing an airplane from scratch to be electric.

two words Production Certificate. And yes, it would be a clean sheet design. Thats the way he rolls

[Kmac]

10 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Why would Musk want to buy Mooney if he wanted to get into the electric airplane business? The Mooney airframe doesn't seem conducive to electrification. He would be better off designing an airplane from scratch to be electric.

@A64Pilot is correct

 

You could be building 1,000's of airframes and taking literally thousands of deposits while you produce the electric STC...

 

Would you rather put a deposit on an a Mooney, where Tesla has purchased the company and says they will create an electrification STC?

or

Would you rather put a deposit on any other aircraft that is almost certainly never going to happen?