Sobering view of the Pacific Northwest

[flyboy0681]

1 minute ago, Hank said:

So what does the National Academy of Science have to say about operating our Lycoming and Continental engines? I get enough fake news fron the actual news reporters, I don't need it here.

And lord knows, the fires out west are all the fault of climate change, and have nothing to do with generations of mismanagement that has allowed fuel to pile up in the forests without either small fires clearing it out, or man clearing it out. So now when a small fire starts, ayhe 30 years' of built up fuel spreads it rapidly, because you know, it's climate change.

But I'm sorry to say for my Pac NW friends, that it looks like our little hurricane ain't going your way this time. It's supposed to make a right hook and end up here in a couple of days, although the flash flood warnings are changing to lighter winds and less rain.

The low overcast is steadily scudding off to the NW, but winds in the ground are still pretty light. They are forecast to rise into the high teens and low 20s tomorrow, a benefit of being a Mooney hour from the coast. Thoughts and prayers to those in the way!

It will start getting cooler. You just watch.

[aviatoreb]

32 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

I'm just pulling your chain.

:-)

[Hank]

2 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

It will start getting cooler. You just watch.

Already is. We're not supposed to break 80° for the rest of the week!

[aviatoreb]

8 minutes ago, Hank said:

So what does the National Academy of Science have to say about operating our Lycoming and Continental engines? I get enough fake news fron the actual news reporters, I don't need it here.

And lord knows, the fires out west are all the fault of climate change, and have nothing to do with generations of mismanagement that has allowed fuel to pile up in the forests without either small fires clearing it out, or man clearing it out. So now when a small fire starts, ayhe 30 years' of built up fuel spreads it rapidly, because you know, it's climate change.

But I'm sorry to say for my Pac NW friends, that it looks like our little hurricane ain't going your way this time. It's supposed to make a right hook and end up here in a couple of days, although the flash flood warnings are changing to lighter winds and less rain.

The low overcast is steadily scudding off to the NW, but winds in the ground are still pretty light. They are forecast to rise into the high teens and low 20s tomorrow, a benefit of being a Mooney hour from the coast. Thoughts and prayers to those in the way!

That would be more so the jurisdiction of the National Academy of Engineering.  A shame that I doubt anyone is studying lean of peak ops over there.

Fault and blame aside, problems often have multiple causes in that fixing one thing may not be enough to stop a problem without addressing more of the primary causes.

Its ironic and quite a shame that one part of the country today is worrying about too much rain from a hurricane and another part of the country is worrying about fire - if only there were a way to share the rain.

[flyboy0681]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

:-)

As always I'm in the middle. I believe that climate change is real and that humans probably have exacerbated or hastened a naturally occurring warming trend.

[aviatoreb]

4 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

As always I'm in the middle. I believe that climate change is real and that humans probably have exacerbated or hastened a naturally occurring warming trend.

I have my own opinion and I try (quite imperfectly as it is probably clear from seeing what I sometimes post) on this topic.  Above all, I do think there is a truth and that truth doesn't care what I think.

In my day job, I do work specifically with some of the technologies that are included in some of the studies in that NAS article I referenced.  I work designing some of the image processing algorithms used for remote sensing imagery from satellites surveillance of oceanographic interest, including ice sheets.  Separate from whether I have a dog in this fight, there is technology involved in acquiring the data in a useful to view format.  I am one of those guys.  Here is a recent article of mine of an example of post processing remote images prior to the Larcen C ice shelf separation.  https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-26/

[flyboy0681]

6 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I have my own opinion and I try (quite imperfectly as it is probably clear from seeing what I sometimes post) on this topic.  Above all, I do think there is a truth and that truth doesn't care what I think.

In my day job, I do work specifically with some of the technologies that are included in some of the studies in that NAS article I referenced.  I work designing some of the image processing algorithms used for remote sensing imagery from satellites surveillance of oceanographic interest, including ice sheets.  Separate from whether I have a dog in this fight, there is technology involved in acquiring the data in a useful to view format.  I am one of those guys.  Here is a recent article of mine of an example of post processing remote images prior to the Larcen C ice shelf separation.  https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-26/

You lost me after "In my day job".

[tmo]

2 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

That would be more so the jurisdiction of the National Academy of Engineering.  A shame that I doubt anyone is studying lean of peak ops over there.

They probably decided FADEC is the way to go and focused on making that better. And I'm pretty sure most, if not virtually all FADEC engines run very deep LOP. ;-)

Edited September 15, 2020 by tmo

[Ario]

4 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

I have my own opinion and I try (quite imperfectly as it is probably clear from seeing what I sometimes post) on this topic.  Above all, I do think there is a truth and that truth doesn't care what I think.

In my day job, I do work specifically with some of the technologies that are included in some of the studies in that NAS article I referenced.  I work designing some of the image processing algorithms used for remote sensing imagery from satellites surveillance of oceanographic interest, including ice sheets.  Separate from whether I have a dog in this fight, there is technology involved in acquiring the data in a useful to view format.  I am one of those guys.  Here is a recent article of mine of an example of post processing remote images prior to the Larcen C ice shelf separation.  https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-26/

Very nice paper Erik. I went through it quickly and its interesting the way you segment developing clusters in temporally flattened matrices. I have to read it more thoroughly though.
I work in a close subject to yours, more in temporal pattern detection by HMM, and infinite clustering with Dirichlet Process.

Great to meet you here.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

And all of those fires are a result of poor forest management? Seems to me that with nearly 60% of California's forest owned by the federal government that the US Forest Service should do a better job.

With winter coming on in the North, perhaps the people of Finland would loan their rakes to the western states.

Clarence

[aviatoreb]

12 minutes ago, Ario said:

Very nice paper Erik. I went through it quickly and its interesting the way you segment developing clusters in temporally flattened matrices. I have to read it more thoroughly though.
I work in a close subject to yours, more in temporal pattern detection by HMM, and infinite clustering with Dirichlet Process.

Great to meet you here.

Hi Ario, Thanks!  I do a bunch of other kinds of image processing concepts based on inverse problems, bayesian, and pde methods.  I am no HMM king but I quite know what they are and have even done a tad bit of that.  I teach a general exposure in machine learning and data driven sciences class lately as well.  Maybe we meet some day and we can geek out on Mooneys and data science?

[aviatoreb]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

Hi Ario, Thanks!  I do a bunch of other kinds of image processing concepts based on inverse problems, bayesian, and pde methods.  I am no HMM king but I quite know what they are and have even done a tad bit of that.  I teach a general exposure in machine learning and data driven sciences class lately as well.  Spatiotemporal patterns, complex systems, and dynamical systems is where I grew up - data driven is where I have been drawn toward.  Maybe we meet some day and we can geek out on Mooneys and data science?

 

[Ario]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

Hi Ario, Thanks!  I do a bunch of other kinds of image processing concepts based on inverse problems, bayesian, and pde methods.  I am no HMM king but I quite know what they are and have even done a tad bit of that.  I teach a general exposure in machine learning and data driven sciences class lately as well.  Maybe we meet some day and we can geek out on Mooneys and data science?

Yes I hope so.

Lots of respect for your work.

[carusoam]

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