Lets clearly establish the used 430W market

[Marauder]

Yep. Upgrading my audio panel was the last thing on my list. The GMA340 that came in the plane is an excellent audio panel. But PS Engineering just made it too easy upgrade to the very top of the line. And then Chase at [mention=15400]Avionics Source[/mention] made it even easier to trade up. So in a weak moment, while watching your video about the 450A... and just a couple of days later I'm sliding out the GMA and sliding in the 450A. Now it's a 450B and truthfully, it's been the nicest upgrade, in a pretty well upgraded panel.

 

I’m still waiting for that commission check from Mark.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[gsxrpilot]

2 minutes ago, Marauder said:

 

I’m still waiting for that commission check from Mark.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

He definitely owes you! 

[MBDiagMan]

The poll choices don’t seem to work out well with the poll question.  The question indicates two possible scenarios; no GPS currently installed or a non working 430w installed.  Those are two drastically different scenarios.  If you have a non working 430 W, you are only $1400 or so set fee from Garmin repair from being back in business.  If you have nothing at all installed your cheapest 430w level or greater choice is $6500 plus a couple thousand dollar installation.  The poll is an interesting one but needs to be corrected.

[chriscalandro]

3 minutes ago, MBDiagMan said:

The poll choices don’t seem to work out well with the poll question.  The question indicates two possible scenarios; no GPS currently installed or a non working 430w installed.  Those are two drastically different scenarios.  If you have a non working 430 W, you are only $1400 or so set fee from Garmin repair from being back in business.  If you have nothing at all installed your cheapest 430w level or greater choice is $6500 plus a couple thousand dollar installation.  The poll is an interesting one but needs to be corrected.

That is the entire point.  The goal is to establish the market for the used 430w based on 2 very different scenarios. 

The debate is NOT what is the cheapest option as you suggest, but what is the option that makes the most sense. 

My argument is the market for a used 430w at 6500 is so small, as for not that much more you can have one of the other options listed. 

So far that statement is mostly accurate. 

If anyone has real world repair numbers we can add that to the poll, and I have a feeling that will eliminate anyone that said the 6500 430 option. 

Edited January 1, 2020 by chriscalandro

[Alan Fox]

Time to stop listen , and learn a little.... The New Garmin WAAS products ,  are limited to what they can be installed in , cant put them in Pressurized aircraft , or Twins , or 6000 lb plus aircraft...  They are not comparable products to the 430 series ,  Garmin will never stop service on the 430 / 530 lines , as long as Avidyne makes a slide in replacement....  As far as sizeable orders for replacement part inventory , It is my understanding , that there are over 130000 units installed in the field... So the math works in this case..... As far as "I've heard this , or that " ,  Its all bullshit...  Unless Garmin sends out a bulletin , its bullshit...  STOP MAKING SHIT UP ….  The only products , that I know of , that were Garmin boxes that were orphaned , are the 100 series and 300 series GPS , and the GTX320 (320A is still supported)   Every other box orphaned were old Apollo Boxes....   Also , it is general practice , for manufacturers to support for a minimum of 10 years ,  I am told that to sell to govt contracts , this is mandatory , So every time Garmin does a WAAS upgrade on a 500 or 400 series unit , the clock gets reset.... Don't like Garmin products ??  Then fly with something less....

[Alan Fox]

Just now, Alan Fox said:

Time to stop listen , and learn a little.... The New Garmin WAAS products ,  are limited to what they can be installed in , cant put them in Pressurized aircraft , or Twins , or 6000 lb plus aircraft...  They are not comparable products to the 430 series ,  Garmin will never stop service on the 430 / 530 lines , as long as Avidyne makes a slide in replacement....  As far as sizeable orders for replacement part inventory , It is my understanding , that there are over 130000 units installed in the field... So the math works in this case..... As far as "I've heard this , or that " ,  Its all bullshit...  Unless Garmin sends out a bulletin , its bullshit...  STOP MAKING SHIT UP ….  The only products , that I know of , that were Garmin boxes that were orphaned , are the 100 series and 300 series GPS , and the GTX320 (320A is still supported)   Every other box orphaned were old Apollo Boxes....   Also , it is general practice , for manufacturers to support for a minimum of 10 years ,  I am told that to sell to govt contracts , this is mandatory , So every time Garmin does a WAAS upgrade on a 500 or 400 series unit , the clock gets reset.... Don't like Garmin products ??  Then fly with something less....

And to answer the question , They are worth 5500 to 6000 WHOLESALE all day long … I would buy 10 at those prices..

[carusoam]

I don’t understand what is meant by... to establish the used 430W market...

Many People are already buying them...

Many people are already selling them...

The price is pretty stable around 6amu...

a market maker often is somebody that warehouses the devices and buys up excess that become available...

Seems like the minimum requirement of having a market are pretty well established...

Improvements for buying/selling a commodity would include a method of improving price discovery...  where buyers and sellers could place bids and where the bid / ask line occurs... the price is dynamically set and a purchase can go through...

What are we trying to do?

build a market?   See the shelf at Grimmy the reaper’s shop. (Seems to be done)

Buy a unit?  Call Grimmy direct.

Set a price? Try negotiating with Grimmy.

Looks like Grimmy has become a de facto market maker in used G430s... (and other things)

PP thoughts only, I no longer buy/sell used machines or parts...

Happy new year,

-a-

[chriscalandro]

16 minutes ago, Alan Fox said:

They are not comparable products to the 430 series 

That is correct. The current offerings are decades of research better. 

 

16 minutes ago, Alan Fox said:

Also , it is general practice , for manufacturers to support for a minimum of 10 years 
I am told that to sell to govt contracts , this is mandatory , So every time Garmin does a WAAS upgrade on a 500 or 400 series unit , the clock gets reset.... 

Errrr, no. This is about 1/3 truth. Government contracts require 10 years of support after the last sale date. The last sale date was... let’s look at the calendar...  updating a product is not selling it, it’s still just supporting it.

 

14 minutes ago, Alan Fox said:

And to answer the question , They are worth 5500 to 6000 WHOLESALE all day long … I would buy 10 at those prices..

The numbers here so far do not support that conclusion so far. And like mentioned above, I would guess adding a repair option would eliminate the votes on the 6500 option. Well, except for yours I’ll assume.   

Edited January 1, 2020 by chriscalandro

[chriscalandro]

4 minutes ago, carusoam said:

I don’t understand what is meant by... to establish the used 430W market...

Many People are already buying them...

Many people are already selling them...

The price is pretty stable around 6amu...

a market maker often is somebody that warehouses the devices and buys up excess that become available...

Seems like the minimum requirement of having a market are pretty well established...

Improvements for buying/selling a commodity would include a method of improving price discovery...  where buyers and sellers could place bids and where the bid / ask line occurs... the price is dynamically set and a purchase can go through...

What are we trying to do?

build a market?   See the shelf at Grimmy the reaper’s shop. (Seems to be done)

Buy a unit?  Call Grimmy direct.

Set a price? Try negotiating with Grimmy.

Looks like a Grimmy has become a de facto market maker in used G430s...

Happy new year,

-a-

The question is, given the scenarios and options, who chooses the 430?  The question states what I find is the majority of scenarios, if this is not correct I’m open to changing it, but I think it makes sense. 
 

the guy selling 430s for 6500 seems to so far be the only person making that argument. 
 

this poll shows that most people agree, that given the real world options, a used 430 at that price point doesn’t make much sense. Which establishes what the market is for used 430s. (At 6500 anyway)

[carusoam]

You asked the expert in used avionics... and he tells you the price he pays for them.

You see them sell for that price around here, and on eBay.

If you are to buy one, you can have it tested at a shop to define that it is working properly.

While you own it, you know Big G wants to support it. Even if the reason is a gov’t contract legal issue.

Ancient, yes... It is decades newer than the plane that it is getting installed in.

It is capable of vertical nav with WAAS precision.

If you install one and later decide to remove it... a decades newer Avidyne can easily go into place...

 

The market is pretty well established for G430s.  
 

Probably the best example of an established used avionics market there is, since the KX170B.

 

Do you want to be a buyer, a seller, or just interested in establishing a market?

The only thing not clear... what is the purpose of this poll?

What is the poll trying to do?  What is the pollster trying to find out?

Best regards,

-a-

[MIm20c]

Just now, carusoam said:

Do you want to be a buyer, a seller, or just interested in establishing a market?

Thinks the box will be the best solution for his plane. Doesn’t want to pay the going rate for it. Sounds like most aircraft owners trying to find the best value/dollar.

[chriscalandro]

2 minutes ago, carusoam said:

You asked the expert in used avionics... and he tells you the price he pays for them.

You see

I’m in the process of buying a 650. I weighed all the options including a used 430w which can regularly be found between 4500(a real option) and 6500(an option that to me does not make any sense given the options)  What I’m establishing is that given the options, 6500 is WAAAYYYY too much for a 430. And so far the poll suggests all but 12% have the same thoughts. 
 

Given there isn’t a repair option, how much of that 12% would chose that option?  How many of that 12% are selling 430s?

 

[chriscalandro]

3 minutes ago, MIm20c said:

Thinks the box will be the best solution for his plane. Doesn’t want to pay the going rate for it. Sounds like most aircraft owners trying to find the best value/dollar.

Wrong. I bought a 650, because as the poll suggests, that or the IFD is the most logical choice. The poll is to see what others would do. 
 

and again, 76% so far would do what I did. Get something else. 

[MIm20c]

1 minute ago, chriscalandro said:

I’m in the process of buying a 650. I weighed all the options including a used 430w which can regularly be found between 4500(a real option) and 6500(an option that to me does not make any sense given the options)  What I’m establishing is that given the options, 6500 is WAAAYYYY too much for a 430. And so far the poll suggests all but 12% have the same thoughts. 
 

Given there isn’t a repair option, how much of that 12% would chose that option?  How many of that 12% are selling 430s?

 

Simple answer buy 10 of the $4500 units you see regularly and sell them to Alan at $5.5k. That’ll pay for your new 650. 

[carusoam]

Chris,

You went down a rabbit hole that isn’t helping your situation...

You probably should have started the pole with your last statement...

Polls actually take effort to design and get answered properly...

When you are done the answers aren’t always what are expected...

Trying not to mislead the audience takes extra effort.

People are buying the used 430Ws for many good reasons.

most of all it fits their current and future needs...

Best regards,

-a-

[tmo]

And what is an actual street price for an IFD440?  Genuinely asking, can't find one on fleabay at the moment.  @Jeev sells new IFD440s for $10700, so if @Alan Fox is willing to pay $6000 for a GNS430W that means a $4700 delta.  BTW, @Avionics Source has used GNS430W's for $5875 (on sale, discounted from $6295), so I would guess that is a reasonable baseline.  They also trade-in GNS430Ws into IFD440s for $5895, FWIW.

[MIm20c]

Just now, tmo said:

And what is an actual street price for an IFD440?  Genuinely asking, can't find one on fleabay at the moment.  @Jeev sells new IFD440s for $10700, so if @Alan Fox is willing to pay $6000 for a GNS430W that means a $4700 delta.  BTW, @Avionics Source has used GNS430W's for $5875 (on sale, discounted from $6295), so I would guess that is a reasonable baseline.  They also trade-in GNS430Ws into IFD440s for $5895, FWIW.

Used around $9k...although I did see a post about a month ago claiming two 440’s in the 7’s (each). 

[chriscalandro]

4 minutes ago, carusoam said:

Chris,

Your went down a rabbit hole that isn’t helping your situation...

You probably should have started the pole with your last statement...

Best regards,

-a-

I bought into the distraction  from the people fighting rigorously for part of 12%(so far) of a market. 
 

it doesn’t really matter to me, I am genuinely just curious about who would spend that money on such an old unit. 

Edited January 1, 2020 by chriscalandro

[Marauder]

I don’t know if the government requires a 10 year support life on avionics sold to them. I DO know they don’t require it for the electronic products we sell to them. And even IF there was a 10 year OOPS requirement, Garmin certainly could separate their consumer and government OOPS offerings. The last 430s were produced somewhere In early 2012 while the 530 ended around November 2011. That was the year the 650/750 was introduced.

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2011/november/04/popular-garmin-navigators-to-be-discontinued

https://www.flyingmag.com/avionics-gear/oem-avionics/fly-touch/

Just for those you who don’t work in the electronics industry, OOPS means Out Of Production Support. It is the length of time a product could theoretically be supported based on their product support lifecycle plan AFTER the last product is manufactured. To determine OOPS, during the initial warranty period companies will begin tracking the AFR (annual failure rate). They will use this as a basis to set STREP (standard repair charges) or for offering extended warranties or service contracts. In addition, they use the AFR both statistically and qualitatively to understand the frequency of failures and the failure rates of the individual components. After a few years, there is a pretty well known failure trend. This leads to the lifetime buys for supporting repairs during the OOPS period they defined in their product support plan.

Where this goes sideways is when mitigating factors creep into the formula or a product continues to be supported longer than the planned OOPS. If you planned on a 5 year OOPS period and you start seeing higher failures in OOPS than planned, you could end up ending support. Some companies have the ability to manufacture their own components and could make a production run to bolster OOPS. As well, if they have a contract with suppliers, they may have the ability to commission a production run. A third option is buying back used products and offering a “best effort” repair option.

For those of us who live in this world, we want the consumer to move onto the next platform, not for us to continue to support your 286 PC processor.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[chriscalandro]

3 minutes ago, tmo said:

And what is an actual street price for an IFD440?  Genuinely asking, can't find one on fleabay at the moment.  @Jeev sells new IFD440s for $10700, so if @Alan Fox is willing to pay $6000 for a GNS430W that means a $4700 delta.  BTW, @Avionics Source has used GNS430W's for $5875 (on sale, discounted from $6295), so I would guess that is a reasonable baseline.  They also trade-in GNS430Ws into IFD440s for $5895, FWIW.

From when I did my research the 650 and 440 were comparable. Avidyne is counting on the slide in replacement market, which seems to have worked out well for them especially with the trade in options. 
 

I don’t have anything currently, so I’m going with the big G. 

[tmo]

Makes me wonder if the next big thing from Avidyne will be GTN slide-in replacements ;-)

[chriscalandro]

1 minute ago, tmo said:

Makes me wonder if the next big thing from Avidyne will be GTN slide-in replacements ;-)

I’d be lying if I said that speculation wasn’t part of the long term part of the decision making!

[Marauder]

 
it doesn’t really matter to me, I am genuinely just curious about who would spend that money on such an old unit. 

That’s easy. The Cheap Bast$&ds. You buy a C model for $25k. You gonna install a $13k GTN 650 or a $8k GNC 430 (installed prices)? That’s why the Avidyne move was a great approach. Sell your 430 to Alan, buy a 440 (get the slick Avidyne marketing calling it a 440?) for a discounted price. That’s where those of us who didn’t have a GPS got stuck. Buy new or buy used.

As long as there is a demand for these used products, the market prices will be dictated by that demand.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Marauder]

Makes me wonder if the next big thing from Avidyne will be GTN slide-in replacements ;-)

I know I would be looking at it. And knowing Garmin they may use that approach themselves. The challenge for them is not to alienate their authorized installers who made money installing new racks. But with the introduction of the G5 & G3X, there is more than enough installation monies flowing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[MikeOH]

18 hours ago, Ragsf15e said:

Also, if you’ve already got a 430w in the panel, you’re much more likely to repair it, ... Since I already have a 430w, I’d send it to garmin for repairs.

That's exactly what I did last year when my 430W died.  $1200 flat-rate is Garmin's going rate.