Pheonix Rising

[aviatoreb]

Reading in this months Mooney Flyer, another article by Bob Kromer about a possible path for Mooney factory to come back to life, this one is much more detailed than ones past by him.  What do you all think?  I mean beyond "I sure hope so", since that seems obvious in this circle.

 

It seems like a really plausible path to me.  His premise is to offer the continental diesel engine on the mooney airframe.  Without summarizing his article - just go read it.  The eventual demise of avgas is looming and banking on for alternatives here, and especially abroad seems like a good business premise.  Obviously to make such a thing to work there would need to be an investor, unless perhaps Mooney already stashed away enough money before they went dormant to self invest.

 

They want to rehab M20Ks to the 230hp diesel.   I wonder if they will also offer STC converts as well without the full rehab for owner airplanes that are otherwise in good shape but ready to convert the firewall forward.  I love my rocket, with the huge power of the tsio520nb, and with 950hrs on the engine and all indicators are fine (so far - knock on wood - and say the tbo raindance song), I would hope to hang on to this install at least until the fate of avgas becomes more clear.  If an avgas future is firm, or an alternative (either a drop in avgas fuel replacement or maybe electronic timing and knock sensing electronics allowing for mogas) becomes available, then I would be happy to overhaul my first run engine.  However I would seriously be interested in a the continental diesel of avgas is going away rather than let my airframe become useless without avgas available.  I am sure a diesel conversion would be very expensive stc but if the alternative is that my airplane is almost worthless, or otherwise buy some other airplane like a diesel da40 (or da42, or da52) or cessna 182 with diesel those newer airplanes would also be very expensive.  And with little added value because I am all caught up on my maintenance after 2 years of catching up.  I really like my airplane and all its systems and I would sooner convert it to a slower but otherwise efficient diesel than trade the whole airplane in for a much slower 182.

 

Anyone want to guess how high a diesel M20K could fly?  Kromer gave estimates of speed based on 10k, and I think he said somewhere in the article that the conty diesel has a 10k critical altitude.

 

What ever happened to deltahawk?  http://www.deltahawkengines.com

They have a simpler - fewer moving parts - diesel purpose built for aviation that has been in certification for decades.

[co2bruce]

Detahawk is still in business, as far as I know, but their engines are for the experimental market, not certified.

[aviatoreb]

Detahawk is still in business, as far as I know, but their engines are for the experimental market, not certified.

 

I have been watching their website that they claim to be certifying a SR20 install for like 5 years.  That install is claimed to be faster than an Sr22 at a much lower fuel burn.  So in theory they are interested in certified.  In fact, my former airplane was a Diamond Da40, and I participated in that forum.  One of the principles in the company came to the Diamond forum to query for interest if they would pursue a Da40 STC and he let on then that he was also thinking about a M20J install.  But that was like 4 years ago and not much noise since then.

[ChrisH]

Reading DeltaHawks website, it looks like they moved into a new facility last year that they went through the certification process (expected completion is early this year). For what's that worth.

[carusoam]

Do we really want diesel, or would 100 octane without the LL be OK with everyone?

The Continental IO550 is certified for both.

Performance difference is listed as a density difference, not a HP difference.

The drag strip, next to the airport sells it for high performance customers...?

Makes the Missle upgrade look pretty wise, again.

Just thinking out loud and sharing.

Best regards,

-a-

[aviatoreb]

Do we really want diesel, or would 100 octane without the LL be OK with everyone?

The Continental IO550 is certified for both.

Performance difference is listed as a density difference, not a HP difference.

The drag strip, next to the airport sells it for high performance customers...?

Makes the Missle upgrade look pretty wise, again.

Just thinking out loud and sharing.

Best regards,

-a-

 

Personally, I would rather an avgas drop in replacement.  I love my rocket.  If either a drop in replacement or electronic timing engine mod does not become available, then I and all the other turbo/high compression engine owners will be up a creek - with an expensive hull worth not much.

 

Even if we do not want diesel here, it is undeniable that there are many parts of the world where jet A is much more readily available and cheaper if avgas is available and avgas is often not available.  I flew around the alps in Switzerland with a Da40 owner friend last fall (stunning day!) and this was a topic of discussion.  So from a world market point of view it seems like a good business move.

[carusoam]

The fuel situation in our country is talking ®evolutionary changes. Shale based oil seems to be the near future of increased supply.

Now, if Continental starts building an LNG IO550....

The tanks would be an interesting challenge.

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

The specific energy of diesel does make it a preferred fuel.

The engine manufacture would have to contain a very high (100:1?) compression ratio.

I'm betting on 100 and 100LL for the next 20 years, 100 hours per year to TBO.

Need to learn the proper steps to the TBO rain dance. I must have got the steps wrong.

-a-

[FAST FLIGHT OPTIONS LLC]

The STC would not be cheap and I'm told would cost 100's of thousands of dollars. They would have to find a way to get a total gross weight increase as well for it to be worth it as the engine is heaver and most would not want a lower useful load. If it happened a guy like me with a 201/ 231 would be happy; however, the 252 owners might start to kick themselves as the price premium we are seeing with those aircraft for the firewall forward stuff would go away as the 201-231-252 would all be the same aircraft if outfitted with that TD-300 right? If your going to hold out hope for something I would sooner bet on the panthera then I would a turbo diesel alternative for the mooney in this economy.

[1964-M20E]

I'm not a business person or economist just an engineer and this is just me thinking through the process. However, let's suppose and dream for a moment that we could have a 200HP or even 300HP gasoline engine that could use regular E85 87 octane fuel or even a diesel engine and that engine would cost 1/2 to 1/4 of what a comparable Lycoming or Continental cost today. (now the cost of fuel to fly is roughly 1/2 of what we pay now). Now suppose that Mooney, Cessna, Piper, Beech any or all of them can work together (i.e. joint production facilities for parts with final assembly at their respective plants) and automate enough processes in the manufacturing process of aircraft so that the production costs of a 4 seat complex aircraft can be reduced dramatically. Let's further suppose that the reasonable use of traditional instrumentation and modern electronics keeps the instrumentation package cost to a minimum and all of these measures allow the manufactures to produce and sell at a profit these new airplanes for say $160k. ( I know pipe dream) Now with all the advances in automation in the production process we can manufacture these aircraft quickly and the manufacturers each produce and sell 500 aircraft each a year. Now we have reduced the hourly cost of flying to try and induce more folks out there to pursue a PPL and further. We have reduced the cost of a new plane such that one or two mostly average people cold get together and afford to purchase a new aircraft and we have made available a large supply of new aircraft. I contend that in 5 or 7 years aircraft sales would fall off. Why? We currently only have so many pilots and the number of new pilots coming into the fold is small. The second thing is we aircraft owners keep planes flying longer than our automobile owner counter parts. How many 1970, 1980 or even earul 1990 model cars do you see on the road today? Most have already been melted down and turned into new cars. However, this will never happen at the current price of new aircraft. This is way too much capital to throw into the wind over 10 or 20 years. Bottom line the current business model for small aircraft manufactures and the current market has condemned them to manufacturing only a handful of aircraft each year at sky high prices. It will take all them working together to make a real change.

[aviatoreb]

The specific energy of diesel does make it a preferred fuel.

The engine manufacture would have to contain a very high (100:1?) compression ratio.

I'm betting on 100 and 100LL for the next 20 years, 100 hours per year to TBO.

Need to learn the proper steps to the TBO rain dance. I must have got the steps wrong.

-a-

 

What is an  LNG IO550?

 

Actually, I bet on 100/100LL alternative 3 years ago, and I put my money where my mouth is, when I was shopping to upgrade from my Diamond DA40 which with a Lyc IO360 stamped UL94 compliant (but the airplane is not certified to run UL94 at this time since the fuel lines and so forth have not been certified).  In looking at possibilities I was very seriously considering if there would be fuel available in the future.  It was driving me crazy thinking of all the alternatives and possibilities and unknowns.

 

Two things that factored in to my decision when I got the rocket were, 1) the total hull value was not as high as if I were to have gotten some other alternatives that would be more immediately 94UL compliant and high performance both (and include TKS) (yes I know there is missile), the idea here being if there is a big sea change and I can no longer fly my airplane that I am out less $ and maybe it would be less painful to go get something else while taking an almost complete loss, 2) there are only limited quality mechanic access here in the boonies of way upstate NY, but there is some for Mooney and especially there is some for the rocket TSIO520NB - the local airline up this way is Cape Air and they use a fleet of 69 Cessna 402C's, which has installed a total of 138 TSIO520VB's.  So my mechanic is actually one of those mechanics and he has a lot, a lot of experience with the similar engine.

 

In fact, Cape Air is a really good example of the commercial need to keep some alternative to keep the TSIO fleets running.  So I am with you, I am also inclined to think that some kind of fix to keep this fleet going, and I figure that I am linked to them - I think/hope that my TSIO520NB will have something available to drink for some time to come.  I am equally thinking thought that electronic knock sensing is a good idea.  Isn't Gami working on something along those lines to allow lower octane fuel?

Gami Prism: http://www.gami.com/prism/prism.php

 

I would teach you my TBO rain dance carusoam, but I cannot promise it is working yet....  Maybe ask me again in 10 years!!!  One of these days I need to get down to one of those NJ mooney fly ins way down south from up here near Canada, eh?

[aviatoreb]

Oh - I meant to say - but I apologize for being Mr Long Winded...

 

-Seems to me that Bob Kromer's business vision is a good one, considering the world market and not just our own personal desires.

-Wow - he is suggesting in his article to actually go back and start producing new factory built diesel M20K's after the rehab market takes off.  And later after that, M20R's.

-Yes, an M20K can handle the larger diesel engine weight.  Look at the rocket and missile.

-I would consider a $100K STC install for a diesel install (guesstimate install price) in 5-7 years when (tbo rain dance work please) it is time if there is no other fuel alternative - that $100K would be cheaper than buying a new $700K diesel Diamond Da50, or a $500K Diesel 182 (which I don't want).

[carusoam]

I read anything from Mr. Kromer. How to operate a C, J and K, I believe. He seems to have been the engineering heart and soul of Mooney for a decade or so. Unfortunately that was in the time before the Internet and interactive forums. Then one day, he was running the company and then disappeared followed by Y2K and my MAPA subscription lapsed...

LNG liquid natural gas.... Several automotive applications and trucks are currently operating. Infrastructure is slow to develop. Fuel tanks are pressure cylinders. Not mentioning turbines, that would be a longer putt for a Mooney.

Where is Mr. Kromer now?

Best regards,

-a-

Bob, if your here, your always welcome to chime in.

[aviatoreb]

Prism and GUL100: http://www.aopa.org/pilot/features/future0006.html

 

Looks great - testing in the test cell already on a TSIO520 even...except for a line at the end of the article - "If all goes well, certification could come by the second quarter of 2001."

[carusoam]

Washington DC can't keep up with what needs to be done for the masses. Never mind focus on the small issue caused by aviation dispersing LL in the atmosphere.

Since Katrina arrived, DC has been focusing on more important issues.

Price of car gas went above $3/gal. for everyone, and stayed there.

Environmental damage by Katrina alone dwarfs the LL issue.

Clean burning LNG is not being mandated or supported for long distance trucks and trains. Unsupported, available technology.

Shale oil can't move to existing processing facilities, while DC is blamed for not organizing the building of pipelines.

There is no ready solution For 100LL.

DC is busy with clearly, more important issues.

DC's job now, is to hold borrowing rates low, until unemployment drops to a significantly lower rate.

Where are we on ADSB? A technical solution is readily available, but won't be mandated in DC immediately, because of financial hardship that it causes?

Pushing the LL issue is not picking on the 1%, they fly jets. It's picking on private pilots in general, while claiming an environmental advantage that is dwarfed by more important issues.

LL is officially a sleeping dog. It won't go away, but it's not DC's most critical challenge either.

Employment

Healthcare

Education

Energy independence

Housing

Food Safety

Aging Population

Clean up after Katrina

Clean up after Sandy

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Improve safety using ADSB.

.

.

.

Find the guy responsible for the murder of Aton Paetz.

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Fix LL challenge

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Support the growth of the pilot population

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We're pretty far down the list for support and/or pressure.

-a-