Love of flying in the Time of Coronavirus

[Davidv]

@ilovecornfields the one piece of data I’ve been curious about from the start is recoveries.  Have you (or anyone else here) seen anything either in aggregate or by age group that shows total recovery time?  I’d be interested to see how long from the onset of symptoms to no longer contagious (although I would suppose contagious may be difficult to prove with the limited data so far so maybe just no more symptoms).

[Jim Peace]

I have 8 commercial tickets booked over the next 2 months.....  This is going to suck

[ilovecornfields]

1 hour ago, Davidv said:

@ilovecornfields the one piece of data I’ve been curious about from the start is recoveries.  Have you (or anyone else here) seen anything either in aggregate or by age group that shows total recovery time?  I’d be interested to see how long from the onset of symptoms to no longer contagious (although I would suppose contagious may be difficult to prove with the limited data so far so maybe just no more symptoms).

Average incubation period is 4-5 days. 7 day is not uncommon. Up to 14 days is the upper limit they are currently using. This is the time from when you acquire the infection to when you start showing symptoms, not the duration of disease (which is the question you were asking). I haven’t seen anything official, but some have recommended an additional 14 days of quarantine after you show symptoms (which is the question you are asking). I’m sure we’ll see more on this later.

Interestingly, mortality rate for children under 10 is close to zero. 
 

Got an email from United today saying I can essentially rebook any ticket for free so that should be helpful for those with flexible travel plans.

[exM20K]

19 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

I have been reading on this quite a lot - and as far as I can tell it is extremely difficult to get an accurate accounting of mortality rate at this still early stage since as far as I read, there are many factors that make for difficulty in assessing the infection rate.  Estimates may be wildly off.   Very sick people may not be reporting for various reasons.  But even more so, if this thing does not hit everyone very hard, there may be slightly sick people who may not be aware that they have this and so may not be part of the sick pool count.  There are an unknown number of people who are infected and may never get sick symptoms at all as well and that may be a tiny fraction or it may well be the overwhelmingly large fraction.

Anyway, this thing is serious enough to pay attention to - I am.

You said much better what I was going to post.... the denominator is much more certain for flu than CV. And almost certainly understated for CV.  Supply chain, travel, and school disruptions will be real, though.

-dan

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

I had planned to attend Sun 'n Fun this year and purchased booth space, airline tickets, AirB&B, etc. and planned to hold four presentations throughout the week.  At this point, there are too many unknowns and out of the abundance of caution I will not be attending.  Not unlike making a decision go or stay when there's bad weather...well, right now there's too much uncertainty and I can't risk getting sick at this time and potentially spreading it to my family.  There's always next year.  Hopefully this will all be over by AirVenture.  If so, I'll see you there.  

[tmo]

I very much like your analogy to a go-nogo decision.  FWIW I just started looking for plane tickets to get to the Summit

[Air pirate]

This is totally blown out of proportion by the media, they have a few objectives, build ratings (keep tuning in to hear the latest on this awful virus and also to try and pin as much blame on the POTUS as possible.  330 million people here, many more fatalities due to the run of the mill flu virus.  Yes virus pathogens will mutate and spread through day to day contact. Wahs hands, don't touch face, nose, eyes etc.  

Unless you are already prone to a compromised immune system or respiratory system, more than likely you will die from something else , hopefully MANY years from now. Don't believe anything you hear from the news media.

 

Be safe, have fun 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

1 hour ago, Air pirate said:

Unless you are already prone to a compromised immune system or respiratory system, more than likely you will die from something else , hopefully MANY years from now. Don't believe anything you hear from the news media.

 

Be safe, have fun 

You are missing the point.  I could get the virus and not know it for days and give it to my elderly parent given that demographic are the most likely to die from it.  Now, how would someone feel if they had a very mild case, but their mother died because she caught it from them?  This is a virus where we MUST think outside of the proverbial box.   
 

With respect to this virus, if people are sufficiently worried then there’s a lot less to worry about.  But if no one is worried, then that’s when you should worry. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Scott Dennstaedt

[ilovecornfields]

1 hour ago, Air pirate said:

This is totally blown out of proportion by the media, they have a few objectives, build ratings (keep tuning in to hear the latest on this awful virus and also to try and pin as much blame on the POTUS as possible.  330 million people here, many more fatalities due to the run of the mill flu virus.  Yes virus pathogens will mutate and spread through day to day contact. Wahs hands, don't touch face, nose, eyes etc.  

Unless you are already prone to a compromised immune system or respiratory system, more than likely you will die from something else , hopefully MANY years from now. Don't believe anything you hear from the news media.

 

Be safe, have fun 

Thanks, Doctor. Nice to finally have this liberal conspiracy debunked by an informed source.

[aviatoreb]

9 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

Thanks, Doctor. Nice to finally have this liberal conspiracy debunked by an informed source.

I just put on my ruby slippers and click my heels together and close my eyes and say there's no place like home and scary stories just go away.  It works every time.

[aviatoreb]

On 3/6/2020 at 8:29 PM, skydvrboy said:

Oops, I overlooked a decimal point. I may need to rethink my career options! 

Ah - no worry - I can't even tell you how many times I have misplaced a decimal, forgotten to divide by two, and all those other things... and Im still standing!

One joke I like to tell when I teach complex analysis - if I forget to multiply by the square root of negative one - and a student points it out - I say oops, thanks!  I almost put my i out!

[Ibra]

19 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Ah - no worry - I can't even tell you how many times I have misplaced a decimal, forgotten to divide by two, and all those other things... and Im still standing!

One joke I like to tell when I teach complex analysis - if I forget to multiply by the square root of negative one - and a student points it out - I say oops, thanks!  I almost put my i out!

If you are dead right about your conclusions, it does not matter how you muddle through the numbers and calculations !

Seems to work well for teachers (already know the correct answers), any errors along the way get magically sorted

[ilovecornfields]

In case anyone is interested in an update:

 

PH20-017+State+Health+&+Emergency+Officials+Announce+Latest+COVID-19+Facts.pdf

[ilovecornfields]

Here’s another good article from an epidemiologist:

https://apple.news/A55xqSDLgQ9q4-b93pdWRJg

 

[MooneyMitch]

I'm deeply concerned I'm going to be banned from going to my first Dodgers/Giants game of the season ! 

And, with that, I've got some great seats assigned..............

[MooneyMitch]

CDC is also providing quality information.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/index.html

[Joe Larussa]

I’m on a cruise ship in Mexico as we speak! Lots and lots and lots of hand washing going on. Not worried at all about me and my wife. Mid 50’s and in good health. Everyone here in good spirits and enjoying life. When I get home I will most likely not visit my elderly father until I’m certain I haven’t been infected. This to shall pass.

[ilovecornfields]

On 3/5/2020 at 5:37 PM, ilovecornfields said:

 

Nice to see that we can have a civil discussion. Personally, I am changing travel plans and being more vigilant about hand washing/disinfection.
For example, my mother lives in the SF Bay Area and asked me if I wanted to fly up at the end of the month and see my aunt who is taking a cruise from Mexico and will be stopping along the coast and will be in SF for a day. I said “no” although truth be told I probably would have said that anyway because I don’t like her. It was nice to get to blame it on coronavirus, though.

I am sure you will all be disappointed to hear that my favorite aunt’s cruise was canceled due to coronavirus. Apparently, she was quite disappointed. She’s close to 70 and has multiple chronic medical conditions. At least she’s consistent in her cluelessness.

At the end of her shift yesterday one of the nurses commented on how she’s going to go home, drink a bottle of wine and pass out. We haven’t even had one case in our county. This is going to take a serious toll on healthcare workers.

On an unrelated note, I have four tickets to rage against the machine at the Oakland coliseum on April 21. Available to the highest bidder.

[MooneyMitch]

22 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

I am sure you will all be disappointed to hear that my favorite aunt’s cruise was canceled due to coronavirus. Apparently, she was quite disappointed. She’s close to 70 and has multiple chronic medical conditions. At least she’s consistent in her cluelessness.

At the end of her shift yesterday one of the nurses commented on how she’s going to go home, drink a bottle of wine and pass out. We haven’t even had one case in our county. This is going to take a serious toll on healthcare workers.

On an unrelated note, I have four tickets to rage against the machine at the Oakland coliseum on April 21. Available to the highest bidder.

Well bless her heart and I wish her the best.

Yep, my field box Dodgers seats are most likely to not have my body in them either.

[Skates97]

22 hours ago, Joe Larussa said:

I’m on a cruise ship in Mexico as we speak! Lots and lots and lots of hand washing going on. Not worried at all about me and my wife. Mid 50’s and in good health. Everyone here in good spirits and enjoying life. When I get home I will most likely not visit my elderly father until I’m certain I haven’t been infected. This to shall pass.

My youngest sister and her family are on a cruise ship in Mexico right now as well. They get back on Saturday. I have talked with my parents (in their 70's) and will talk with my sister when she gets back that they should not go visit my parents for at least two weeks after they return. They normally are over visiting my parents a couple times a week as they only live a few miles apart.

[Jeph357]

[ilovecornfields]

47 minutes ago, Jeph357 said:

Thank you for your informed and helpful addition to the discussion.

[steingar]

I don't trust many of the numbers I've seen.  I have the feeling they're undercounting a lot of folks who had a benign reaction to the virus. And I trust exactly nothing that comes from mainland China.  Because of this nonsense I'm teaching remotely on-line, and I don't like it one bit. I bet this lasts the rest of the semester, I can't see things getting any better in a couple weeks.  Maybe this is worse than the fly, maybe not.  One thing it is; infective.  This stuff make it's way here from China fast!

[Davidv]

Just now, ilovecornfields said:

Thank you for your informed and helpful addition to the discussion.

Agreed.

This graphic may have made people chuckle about a month ago but now it's pretty irrelevant.  Last I checked, all of those diseases were hyped but none had proven community spread anywhere near what we are seeing here.  So yes, the media has a natural incentive to create hype for eyeballs, but this graphic is starting to look a lot "the world is flat" propaganda. 

[ilovecornfields]

21 minutes ago, steingar said:

I don't trust many of the numbers I've seen.  I have the feeling they're undercounting a lot of folks who had a benign reaction to the virus. And I trust exactly nothing that comes from mainland China.  Because of this nonsense I'm teaching remotely on-line, and I don't like it one bit. I bet this lasts the rest of the semester, I can't see things getting any better in a couple weeks.  Maybe this is worse than the fly, maybe not.  One thing it is; infective.  This stuff make it's way here from China fast!

They ARE undercounting. On purpose. They only have a limited number of test kits so they are usually only looking for COVID-19 in people with significant disease or direct contact. This is good because the mortality rate for all comers is probably lower than what they’re publishing but it’s also misleading because the true prevalence of disease is much higher than what the numbers are saying.

There was recently an article by an epidemiologist who estimated that by the time the first confirmed case was announced in a community there were probably between 100-500 people in the community already infected.

My guess is the reason it’s spread so quickly is due to fomite transmission and this is why the CDC is reminding people to wash their hands and not touch their face.

I would see patients remotely if that were an option, but for my job it isn’t.