Rush Hour Alternative Aircraft Type Poll #1

[Seth]

This poll is to help flush out the aircraft type for the business that's in it's early stages of planning - not even sure if it will move forward. 

 

This is for a subscription based service flying people short ranges (less than 80 nm, most less than 60 nm) around and over the Washington DC Metro Area rush hour gridlock traffic. 

 

The six aircraft I'm thinking about are:

 

1.  PC-12 (8 or 9 passengers)

2.  Cessna 208B Caravan (8 or 9 passengers)

3.  Piper Navajo Cheiftan 350 (8 or 9 passengers)

4.  Cessna 402 (8 or 9 passengers)

5.  Piper Seneca (club seating - 4)

6.  Piper Cherokee 6 (club seating -4)

 

The PC-12 is greater for longer missions but at the price point makes no sense for this close range as well as the complexity of pressurization and retractalbe gear.  For expansion to other markets it may make sense.  Thus, I'm leaving it off the polls.

 

There are multiple quesitons, so please click them all.

 

Also, if there is a specific reasoning or opinion noted, please do mention it. 

 

If I'm missing a specific type of aircraft that's perfect for the mission, please suggest it.

 

Thanks,

 

-Seth

 

 

More info:

 

 

-Routes will be less than 9 individuals as this is going to be on-demand charter.  No TSA even though everyone will be vetted through the TSA Pre Check (for security reasons). 

 

-Most aircraft will have to be able to operate out of CGS which is a 2607 by 60 foot runway.

 

-Distance will be at most for phase one 80 nm.

[Mooneymite]

Just a thought....aircraft should be chosen after the routes/customer base/market are chosen. If you choose the aircraft, you will lock yourself into/out of certain operations.

[Seth]

Just a thought....aircraft should be chosen after the routes/customer base/market are chosen. If you choose the aircraft, you will lock yourself into/out of certain operations.

 

Well put and I agree - more information:

 

 

-Routes will be less than 9 individuals as this is going to be on-demand charter.  No TSA even though everyone will be vetted through the TSA Pre Check (for security reasons). 

 

-Most aircraft will have to be able to operate out of CGS which is a 2607 by 60 foot runway.

 

-Distance will be at most for phase one 80 nm.

 

-Seth

[orionflt]

Maybe you can get Amazon to deliver people not just packages.

http://www.idigitaltimes.com/articles/21323/20131230/amazon-prime-air-drone-test-sites-faa.htm

[Marauder]

Now if Seth could develop a Star Trek transporter service, I'd buy in a second.

[bnicolette]

part 135 on 2600' of runway?  Will they allow the DAA program so you can use 80% instead of 60%?  

[DaV8or]

I'm assuming you're going to be flying non pilots, just regular folks. This means to me that you'll have to overcome the general population's fear of "little airplanes". I would hazard to guess that the best way to do that is with a twin. I think to most non-aviators, a "real" airplane starts with a second motor. For this reason, I would not even consider the singles even though they would likely be more economical.

 

The sort of flight service you are proposing is done day in and day out in Alaska. I would you find an air taxi type operation up there and see if you can get them to share with you the realities of ferrying people back and forth on a daily basis. It would be good to see their numbers so that you can figure out what to charge and if you'll really make any money.

[M016576]

Can't beat a caravan for this sort thing.

[DaV8or]

From the customer's prospective I would ask, how much time is really saved? How much is it going to cost? How am I supposed to get from/to the airport to my job? How much expense/time will getting to and from the airport cost me. How reliable will this service be? Will I be able to get home even if the weather becomes bad? How safe is this?

 

The distances seem so short to me that I suspect most people will still op to stick it out in their cars.

[bnicolette]

Very intriguing Seth.  I'll bet there are a lot of folks that would do this rather than sit in traffic.  

 

Transportation from the airport would be easy to work out.

 

I like the Caravan or a Twin Otter.  What's the short field performance on the Caravan with full people and light fuel?

[ChrisH]

Helicopter for this range/mission seems more appropriate, better routing through the airspace, probably limited to VFR operations which may not be an issue.

[larryb]

What about ground transportation? I think that is the big thing, easy to get from airport to airport, but what then? Now, if your company provided ground transportation with a van/driver at each served airport, or you worked with a local limo service, you could provide door to door service, much more useful.

 

Larry

[Seth]

Great commnets - just so everyone knows, CGS - College Park Airport is a two block walk to a metro station.  That's the DC subway.  Instead of driving their cars for 1.5 to 2.5 hours from around the region to then park for $250 per month in DC (regardless of how much they use the space) they can wing their way to a metro stop and ride the train/subway the rest of the way into the city.  If they were to drive to a subway station and pay to park their car, it's $5 per day at stations that have parking lots, so that's another $25 per week, or $100 per month if they take the subway anyway after driving in from the areas not already set up for mass transit.

 

They would drive to their local airport, maybe even a quick reverse commute, get on their flight, and in 20 minutes walk over to a metro stop for the final 20 minute leg of their commute - still beats a 2.5 hour drive each way.

 

This will not work for the majority of the population, just a small small percentage of those who have the extra money and want some time back who live far enough out for a reason other than real estate value costs.

 

-Seth

[Seth]

Very intriguing Seth.  I'll bet there are a lot of folks that would do this rather than sit in traffic.  

 

Transportation from the airport would be easy to work out.

 

I like the Caravan or a Twin Otter.  What's the short field performance on the Caravan with full people and light fuel?

 

 

Brett-

 

I was going to pick your brain about this at some point.  Once I put some more information together I'm going to PM you for a time to meet up and discuss..

 

-Seth

[Seth]

Maybe you can get Amazon to deliver people not just packages.

http://www.idigitaltimes.com/articles/21323/20131230/amazon-prime-air-drone-test-sites-faa.htm

Love it!

[Seth]

I'm assuming you're going to be flying non pilots, just regular folks. This means to me that you'll have to overcome the general population's fear of "little airplanes". I would hazard to guess that the best way to do that is with a twin. I think to most non-aviators, a "real" airplane starts with a second motor. For this reason, I would not even consider the singles even though they would likely be more economical.

 

The sort of flight service you are proposing is done day in and day out in Alaska. I would you find an air taxi type operation up there and see if you can get them to share with you the realities of ferrying people back and forth on a daily basis. It would be good to see their numbers so that you can figure out what to charge and if you'll really make any money.

 

That's a good market to get some research on - it's a different world of flying up there.  Also, there are a lot of federal subsidies in effect - there are some here - but I don't know if that woudl match on of the proposed routes - also, this is on demand charter, not scheduled service.

 

-Seth

[Mooneymite]

CGS only has one approach to one runway...makes "certain days" tough on the commuters depending on you for the return trip at the end of their day. You might want to do a study and see what percentage of days/year the wx permits ops.

[bnicolette]

Easy enough to let subscribers know if there will or won't be flights the following morning.  

[201er]

What if a couple of passengers are 3 minutes late? Do you make everyone on board wait and eat into the speedy service time? Or do you lose the revenue and piss off the slightly late people and make them now have to drive instead? A problem I see with your time savings is that they are the best case scenario rather than worst case. Worst case is you sit around at the airport for a while to find out there's no flight and then still have to drive. It would only take one or two times of that happening for someone to give up.

How often does airforce one or some other govt thing end up slowing down or shutting things down in the DC area?

[Seth]

Brett-  You are very much correct, and automated system could easily be made to text or email those flying on that particular trip to let them know if a flight would happen or not.  Or potentially, we could on those days fly them to Gaithersburg, GAI, which has a longer runway, and could then van them over to the Metro station (about a 10 minute drive).

 

If possible, I'd figure out a way with DCA to have certain routes fly directly into DCA with a security person on board so that we could take them to the GA terminal - it will be more costly with the security person on the payroll, but it may be worth it some days to get people to metro.

 

-Seth

[mjc]

I was thinking of the Twin Otter or a Britten Norman Islander as decent options. Fixed gear, but I think on a trip that short it probably doesn't matter. That said, Cessna 402s work very well for Cape Air doing the same basic job.

[DaV8or]

I was thinking of the Twin Otter or a Britten Norman Islander as decent options. Fixed gear, but I think on a trip that short it probably doesn't matter. That said, Cessna 402s work very well for Cape Air doing the same basic job.

 

The Islander is a great idea. That plane is made for this mission.

[aviatoreb]

I was thinking of the Twin Otter or a Britten Norman Islander as decent options. Fixed gear, but I think on a trip that short it probably doesn't matter. That said, Cessna 402s work very well for Cape Air doing the same basic job.

 

Cape Air flies around these parts and I have flown with them many times.  My former CFI was also a pilot for them and my current AP/IA is a mechanic for them.  They do a very good job of running a profitable business on a seemingly thin margin with a fleet of those 402's.  I can fly Massena to Albany and return for $120 rt.  That is impressive to me as it is less than the bus!

 

They boast an extremely high go (vs no-go) rate - 97% I think it was, and they have a superior safety record.  They can go more often than I would have guessed in a light piston twin.  They do have a thorough corporate training program to bring their pilots to speed on their way of doing everything, esp weather - there was an aopa video about their methods but I cannot seem to find it.

[aviatoreb]

Great commnets - just so everyone knows, CGS - College Park Airport is a two block walk to a metro station.  That's the DC subway.  Instead of driving their cars for 1.5 to 2.5 hours from around the region to then park for $250 per month in DC (regardless of how much they use the space) they can wing their way to a metro stop and ride the train/subway the rest of the way into the city.  If they were to drive to a subway station and pay to park their car, it's $5 per day at stations that have parking lots, so that's another $25 per week, or $100 per month if they take the subway anyway after driving in from the areas not already set up for mass transit.

 

They would drive to their local airport, maybe even a quick reverse commute, get on their flight, and in 20 minutes walk over to a metro stop for the final 20 minute leg of their commute - still beats a 2.5 hour drive each way.

 

This will not work for the majority of the population, just a small small percentage of those who have the extra money and want some time back who live far enough out for a reason other than real estate value costs.

 

-Seth

 

It really seems like a good idea to me.  I know the area well, since as you know I grew up there.  I have DEFINITELY spent some quality time in those 2 hour traffic jams going like 30 or 40 miles.  Good times.  Seems like as a business you would attract a small elite group of customers who would love the possibility and really make a winner business for you.

[xftrplt]

Simply put, in my opinion there is no aircraft that make this scheme economically viable, for the following reasons:

 

Notional door-to-door times:

30 minutes, house to aircraft departure

30 minute flight, block-to-block

30 minutes from aircraft to destination

One can drive nearly any mooted trip in 2 hours.

 

So, to save maybe 30 minutes, your passengers would have to:

Forego the privacy and convenience of their own car.

Lose the flexibility to change plans.

Book ahead (with cancellation penalties).

Ride the Metro (or cab).

Adjust their schedule, both coming and going.

Accept the possibility of a delay or cancellation.

Endure low-altitude turbulence, heat, cold, and rain.

Fly in a (single-pilot?) recip.

Pay possibly $100.

 

For important appointments and these short distances, transportation by light aircraft is not sufficiently reliable.

For example, take just the probabilities of:

Good weather (0.90)

No maintenance issue (0.95)

No crew problem (0.95)

Now multiply them and square the product for the roundtrip reliability.  Answer:  66%.

Is that good enough for people with money and important appointments?