Weather Scenario - What would you do? (poll)

[201er]

Scenario: 318nm cross country across relatively flat terrain

Departure and destination currently reporting clear.

TAF shows destination starting to cloud up a few hours after ETA.

For 200nm along the route its reported 2000ft broken to overcast and pirep tops 4000ft and clear above. Reported visibility 5 miles. Light westerly winds. No turbulence or icing.

For those of you who insist on specifics, let's say KPSM to KMDT, but it's mostly rhetorical.

Here's a peek at some of the terrain/obstacles you may encounter.

What do you do?

If you chose/mentioned an option involving IFR, what would you do if you're not instrument current?

 

Explain your choice. What other options are acceptable to you and which ones are not?

[takair]

Ironically, when I was younger, didn’t have kids, and either not instrument rated or newly minted, I would do these trips more frequently, going under, over, around or through.  Got into situations I shouldn’t have too often.  That takes the fun out of it.  
 

If I had to do this trip, I would probably have a plan on file, maybe start VFR with a plan to pick up a clearance.  going over VFR is a good option if you feel confident that you can pick up a clearance to get down.  As you know, the closer you are to NY, the less likely you will get a pick-up clearance.  
 

Ive more recently done similar trips by going under, but not in a straight line.  Fly airport to airport, and call each airport waypoint your “destination”.  Psychologically, this sets you up with a plan to land or turn back in discrete increments.  If it looks good, go for the next airport, knowing that you have one behind you.  If the ceiling starts dropping and you can’t pick up a clearance, backtrack to the last airport.  This has worked well on a number of trips and I find it less stressful when IFR is not the best option….due to weather, delays, etc.

 

[Schllc]

Why is it an hour of delays and diversions?

[201er]

5 minutes ago, Schllc said:

Why is it an hour of delays and diversions?

Because you’ll have to wait for a break on clearance delivery frequency, copy clearance, hold for release, fly an instrument departure in the opposite direction, stick to airways, get routed a long way around, fly an approach, etc. Welcome to the northeast.

[madjano]

This would be a no brainer here in the midwest (with no ice).  I would hope that I would be able pick up a clearance in the air if things started to go south.  The fact that the destination is towered and has nice fat ILS both ways and weather is above my personal mins, I would totally do this.  One caveat is that I do not consider myself proficient at this time, as I have not done any approaches solid in the clouds this time of year.

Educate me if north easterly ATC is going to hang me out to dry... Denver, San Antonio and Florida panhandle, (maybe KC and Minneapolis, not really that busy) are the only busy places I have flown and ATC has been gracious at all of them.

[0TreeLemur]

13 hours ago, madjano said:

This would be a no brainer here in the midwest (with no ice).  I would hope that I would be able pick up a clearance in the air if things started to go south.  The fact that the destination is towered and has nice fat ILS both ways and weather is above my personal mins, I would totally do this.  One caveat is that I do not consider myself proficient at this time, as I have not done any approaches solid in the clouds this time of year.

Educate me if north easterly ATC is going to hang me out to dry... Denver, San Antonio and Florida panhandle, (maybe KC and Minneapolis, not really that busy) are the only busy places I have flown and ATC has been gracious at all of them.

Agree.   Flight service is very willing to file for you, then you call center and pick it up.

[toto]

13 hours ago, madjano said:

This would be a no brainer here in the midwest (with no ice).

Yep. If the theoretical location was the midwest with no ice and you’re instrument current, this is really easy. I don’t remember ever being denied a pop-up clearance in these circumstances.

[0TreeLemur]

14 hours ago, Schllc said:

Why is it an hour of delays and diversions?

If the weather is heading downhill, an hour can turn a go into a no-go situation.  Especially if a frontal passage is involved.

[Schllc]

On 1/7/2023 at 10:05 AM, 0TreeLemur said:

If the weather is heading downhill, an hour can turn a go into a no-go situation.  Especially if a frontal passage is involved.

Lol, I wasn’t avoiding permutations, the scenario did it describe any of this, nor indicate delays in routing etc. 

This would absolutely be no problem for me to continue my planned flight.  I am IFR rated and I maintain currency.  
None of the answers fit my response. 
You may get a delay notice on the ground , rare in a piston, and you may get a clearance release delay, but no one is going to guarantee you have an hour longer flight before you take off. 
I would probably have filed, taken off, climbed over it, and canceled if I started getting jacked around. It happens every single flight I take out and in to SW Florida over the panhandle. I have never flown that route with less than three reroutes.

[Danb]

Easy decision I’d file instrument plan, doubt I’d get a hour delay doesn’t enter into my decision, even being based in Wilmington De on edge of Phila, that type o3f delay would be rare since it’s VFR conditions.