Bluebook, VREF and Mooney Values

[0TreeLemur]

9 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

Wow, that is really bad.

A used 430W kit will sell in one day for $6000 right now. It adds that much to an old plane...maybe more for the savvy buyer that already can use it well. Too bad your lender doesn't understand that. The newer GPS boxes can't take the plane to any additional airports or lower minimums than the trusty 430W...

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Yes- after our panel upgrade earlier this year I asked the insurance company to increase the hull value by several thousands.  They asked for proof and value of the equipment added, not labor.   I provided receipts showing the value added, and they raised it by that amount.  At least it seems that insurance companies agree.

[Jerry 5TJ]

I don't think there is "a market" for old Mooney planes:  The tiny number for sale and the nearly infinite variations in each plane's condition, equipment and wear just don't create a liquid market. 

It is more of a Jello-like market:   Not very firm, quasi-transparent, and may contain nuts.  

 

 

[MIm20c]

My reference to eBay was for avionics not aircraft, although a reasonable BIN (not auction) will provide a lot of additional exposure to a traditional TAP et al listing. 

I do agree with Fred’s insurance agent that the value added to hull value and IMO to aircraft selling price is based on hardware...the labor is a sunk cost. 

[0TreeLemur]

I agree fully with @Jerry 5TJ.  The legacy of maintenance over the ~50 years of life of some of our older Mooneys is pretty freakin' amazing.  Recently  went through the airframe logs on our bird and created a summary.   Notable findings: the battery box was removed and painted probably 20 times before a sealed battery was installed.  I wouldn't have thought that would have been a major item at annual, but it was.  The tanks have been resealed 2-1/2 times and the last time was a half-arsed attempt by someone to stop some leaks that kind of worked but made a mess for me that we are cleaning up right now.   It was repainted 1-1/2 times.   It is on approximately the 4th gen. of panel electronics.   It used to have ADF & LORAN.  It has had all three landing gear replaced.  Windshield was replaced and it needs new side windows.    The list goes on and on.   The maintenance history of our birds is each unique, to say the least.

[Bob_Belville]

3 hours ago, jgarrison said:

Correct. I presented him with correct VREF and BB valuations. He basically told me I didn't know what I was talking about. 

Hooray!!!! First answer is right on the button. Lender told me point blank that a 430W was worth $2,400. He told me no-one wanted them any more. He told me that the 650 was the radio people wanted. He told me you couldn't even sell a 430W on the used market. Neither BB or VREF provide values on a 430W. It is up to the appraiser to determine value on that unit.

On the Autopilot, agreed. Times are about to change there. Here are the additions in VREF and BB for the referenced autopilots:

VREF - STEC-30:  $10,900

VERF - STEC-50: $4,000

BB - 'Two Axis AP': $400 (yes, there is no comma in that number)

That's just sad.

By what logic is a STEC 30 worth (a lot!) more than a 50?

Bennett gets $8495. for a 430W.   https://www.bennettavionics.com/gns-430w-waas-ifr-gps-nav-comm-mfd-moving-map-glideslope/

[Marauder]

2 hours ago, rpcc said:

Well - from a buyers point of view IMHO, I think a Mooney value guide is about as useful a concept as  a Future wife value guide.  These are not Hershee bars.  From what I've learned, these machines are each unique - from equipment, condition, operational history, and time to make whatever changes are needed - electronics upgrades, paint, tanks....  and to be quite honest how the machine works with the owners objectives and how attractive the complete package is to the buyer.   Agreed it does drive the financing market and in a sense help support the value.  

I think Jimmy is trying to drive a better understanding both for the consumer and the financial industry supporting the financing of these planes. There are a number of prospective buyers and sellers alike that have no clue what a plane is worth. It may be "in the eyes of the buyer" or "in the opinion of the seller" that a particular plane has a certain value. That has been the issue, there is no objective benchmarking to show what a plane should be worth.  The key to Jimmy's message is that this isn't the good old days where planes were sold with basic avionics and few other amenities. An owner today could invest $50k in a $40k airplane and be told "take it in the wallet".  I think there is more awareness but more work needed to provide a better guide.

 

[jetdriven]

19 hours ago, Yetti said:

What I have never understood is a 75 F and a 78 J.   Generally the F would be 60K and the J would be 110K .    Value wise a F is just a few knots slower but it is half the price.  Most everything else is the same except the speed mods on the J.  3 years in car values would not account for the extra dollars.

The baseline values arent that much different. An equally equipped J is worth 20K more than the F in your instance.

[Yetti]

10 minutes ago, jetdriven said:

The baseline values arent that much different. An equally equipped J is worth 20K more than the F in your instance.

I know this is airplanes, but 20K on 60K is still 30%  for not alot of difference other than a designation and a couple of model years and me still being a teenager

 

[MIm20c]

17 minutes ago, Yetti said:

I know this is airplanes, but 20K on 60K is still 30%  for not alot of difference other than a designation and a couple of model years and me still being a teenager

 

I think aircraft speed mods have a very low ROI.  This would agree with the spreads above. 

[rpcc]

4 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

In theory maybe, but not so much in reality.

On one hand, shill bidding still takes place on Ebay where friends and family and alias names bid on the item trying to get the value up there. You never really know if those bids are "real". 

On the other hand, many people's perceived value of an airplane on Ebay is low since they think there's something inherently wrong with it. ("Why would they put it on Ebay and not Controller or Trade-a-Plane?")

 

Well - I think its a better estimate of value than vref or other options - basically its saying this is what the buyers here are willing to pay for the airframe - kind of wholesale pricing if you will.

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, rpcc said:

Well - I think its a better estimate of value than vref or other options - basically its saying this is what the buyers here are willing to pay for the airframe - kind of wholesale pricing if you will.

What an Ebay buyer is willing to pay is only half of the equation. That price needs to meet what a legitimate seller is willing to sell it for in  order to determine value. Looking back at legitimate, sold listings maybe, but even then you'll see the "sold" listings come back up for sale the next week because the seller played games and used shill bidding.

You'll see a lot of damage history airplanes listed on Ebay that are hard to sell through the conventional methods. Caveat emptor. Anytime something seems too good to be true . . . 

[rpcc]

9 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

What an Ebay buyer is willing to pay is only half of the equation. That price needs to meet what a legitimate seller is willing to sell it for in  order to determine value. Looking back at legitimate, sold listings maybe, but even then you'll see the "sold" listings come back up for sale the next week because the seller played games and used shill bidding.

You'll see a lot of damage history airplanes listed on Ebay that are hard to sell through the conventional methods. Caveat emptor. Anytime something seems too good to be true . . . 

yes there is junk there but there have been some quality aircraft sold - recently a clean low time eagle sold there for example. I remember the bravo you are referring too so yes there can be ones to stay away from.  

List it there and set your reserve to your ask price - that should give you a very good estimate of market value.  

just look at the listings on controller - most sit forever 12 months or more - its hard to find a buyer for these planes - value is really what the buyer in front of you is willing to pay for it - or you wait for the next one to come around.  

This is my problem with a value guide - these transactions are mostly on a personal level - not like say buying a 2016 suburban from a car dealer for example.   

 

[jgarrison]

11 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

You'll see a lot of damage history airplanes listed on Ebay that are hard to sell through the conventional methods. Caveat emptor. Anytime something seems too good to be true . . . 

Most of the planes on ebay have significant issues. That's why they are on ebay and not on traditional aircraft sales venues. Not gonna convince him though.

[jgarrison]

1 hour ago, rpcc said:

just look at the listings on controller - most sit forever 12 months or more - its hard to find a buyer for these planes - value is really what the buyer in front of you is willing to pay for it - or you wait for the next one to come around.  

This is my problem with a value guide - these transactions are mostly on a personal level - not like say buying a 2016 suburban from a car dealer for example.   

 

If a plane is on controller for 12 months, it is overpriced. The seller could use an education in value. 

Question for you: I have sold eight planes this year without advertising. A few before I ever got them but all eight within a few days of me alerting known buyers by email that the plane was arriving. So based on no advertising and selling so quickly, did they sell for below value? Should I have priced them up, put them on the market and waited it out? Or is it that they were good planes in a good segment of the market that were priced properly for value and the buyers were educated by being on the market for a while and missing good plane after good plane because others were getting there first when advertised? 

And a couple of other questions regarding your final comment... Your value guide issue is aimed at a guide producer who does not have actual sales data to draw from, correct? Like BlueBook and VREF, who don't and never have sold a plane right? So does 750 Mooney sales not qualify as having an actual knowledge of the market? How many sales would you think it would take for me to have quality data?

[jgarrison]

14 hours ago, MIm20c said:

I think aircraft speed mods have a very low ROI.  This would agree with the spreads above. 

That is true... Except if you believe VREF and you put a Lopresti Cowling on your plane. They give you $26,000+ for value on a pre-201 if it has the cowling.

[gsxrpilot]

Very late to this thread... but I tried to read the whole thing. 

It seems to me that placing a valuation on Mooneys is something closer to placing a valuation on classic cars. Valuing used cars is one thing, but valuing classic cars is something entirely different. But then banks might not loan money on classic cars. 

And another question... does rarity come into the valuation of Mooneys? C's through K's are all desirable for different reasons and none are being manufactured. I would think that the size of the fleet would come into the valuation at some point.

[rpcc]

52 minutes ago, jgarrison said:

If a plane is on controller for 12 months, it is overpriced. The seller could use an education in value. 

Question for you: I have sold eight planes this year without advertising. A few before I ever got them but all eight within a few days of me alerting known buyers by email that the plane was arriving. So based on no advertising and selling so quickly, did they sell for below value? Should I have priced them up, put them on the market and waited it out? Or is it that they were good planes in a good segment of the market that were priced properly for value and the buyers were educated by being on the market for a while and missing good plane after good plane because others were getting there first when advertised? 

And a couple of other questions regarding your final comment... Your value guide issue is aimed at a guide producer who does not have actual sales data to draw from, correct? Like BlueBook and VREF, who don't and never have sold a plane right? So does 750 Mooney sales not qualify as having an actual knowledge of the market? How many sales would you think it would take for me to have quality data?

Quality data?  The only samples you have are your own results.  From that you could say,  if I sold your plane here's what it was worth and if that is the type of guide you are producing then I think you do have quality data.  If you are trying to extrapolate your results to the general market I don't think your data would be considered quality for that purpose.    

[0TreeLemur]

In response to @gsxrpilot, Paul I think you are on to something.  I would have to believe that the proportion of remaining C's in the fleet that are in good to excellent condition is pretty small.   It would be interesting to know how many are tied down outside and seldom/never flown vs. those that are tucked away in a dusty hangar and seldom/never flown, vs. those that are used frequently and well maintained.  Any way to figure that out?

[Yetti]

1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

Very late to this thread... but I tried to read the whole thing. 

It seems to me that placing a valuation on Mooneys is something closer to placing a valuation on classic cars. Valuing used cars is one thing, but valuing classic cars is something entirely different. But then banks might not loan money on classic cars. 

And another question... does rarity come into the valuation of Mooneys? C's through K's are all desirable for different reasons and none are being manufactured. I would think that the size of the fleet would come into the valuation at some point.

The fleet is not so big as to create a database with all remaining serial numbers.   Then create a history of the plane.  Then create a valuation using the 337 data and hours flown from flight aware data.  The valuation would be based on data not someones thumb.    Like they do comps on houses.  

[Bob_Belville]

Surely a significant portion of the value of a C, E, F, J, or K Mooney, all long out of production but resonably plentiful and well supported, is really independent of the Mooney airframe. The engine and the panel can be evaluate based upon a much larger data base than the particular make and model they are installed in. Jimmy's worksheet, if updated for the latest and greatest avionics does that. A GTN 750, a GLD 88 or other ADS-B solution, a WX500, an Aspen 2000, or a STEC auto pilot does not care if it is in a M20 or a PA28. Ditto the time to TBO for an IO360. 

It is my impression that more and more vintage planes,, at least those that are used regularly for travel, are getting significant upgrades. We need to reflect a new reality: not so long ago we would suppose that if a M20C was at $40K a M20E would be $50K, and a M20F would be $60K, etc. (Or something similar to that.) That mindset is obsolete when updating a panel might cost more than the airframe and a new Lycoming IO360 is worth more than the airplane it is going on. 

This is actually a good thing. My current 53 year old M20E is more capable than a 10 year old Mooney that has not been updated. I do not have to spend $750K or even $300K to have all the IFR capability available. 

And if a buyer is savvy and informed the market should reflect the real world values.    

[jgarrison]

2 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

Very late to this thread... but I tried to read the whole thing. 

It seems to me that placing a valuation on Mooneys is something closer to placing a valuation on classic cars. Valuing used cars is one thing, but valuing classic cars is something entirely different. But then banks might not loan money on classic cars. 

And another question... does rarity come into the valuation of Mooneys? C's through K's are all desirable for different reasons and none are being manufactured. I would think that the size of the fleet would come into the valuation at some point.

You are probably pretty close to accurate on the comparison of classic cars. It is a bit of an art.

In my opinion, value is all based on relativity. What is an M20K worth when compared to a Turbo Arrow. Or what is an M20C worth when compared to an older Cherokee 180 or Cessna 172. And what is a K worth in relation to a J or an M model. And what is an Acclaim worth when compared to a new Mooney. And what is an M20C with 430W/ADS-B/STEC-50 worth compared to the same M20C without. The only thing we can compare the rarity or scarcity to is a new plane and the other options available in other models. The vintage Mooney is not really influenced by what Mooney is doing. It is however influenced by what is happening in the economy. It then end, a guy that wants the efficiency and speed will value a Mooney higher than some of the other options available to him. The model, the year, the condition, the history, the upgrades and the avionics will slot a plane into a price range relative to everything else. That takes time, study of the market and if you have it available to you a person with knowledge of the market and relative values.

[jgarrison]

2 hours ago, rpcc said:

Quality data?  The only samples you have are your own results.  From that you could say,  if I sold your plane here's what it was worth and if that is the type of guide you are producing then I think you do have quality data.  If you are trying to extrapolate your results to the general market I don't think your data would be considered quality for that purpose.    

Fair enough... You use ebay, lender's use VREF and BlueBook, I will use my 750 Mooney sales history and reference thousands and thousands of conversations with buyers. In the end, each of us make the best decision using the info available to us.

Edit.... I also watch the market VERY closely so I know what planes are on the market and how they are equipped and what they are asking. And I do try to get sales prices on planes when I can, by either talking to the buyer or the seller. Sometimes they will tell me, sometimes they won't.

[jgarrison]

39 minutes ago, Bob_Belville said:

And if a buyer is savvy and informed the market should reflect the real world values.    

Yep. And Mooney guys do a fair amount of research.

Just for grins, I spoke with a dealer a while back who deals in a lot of different models of planes and occasionally a Mooney. He asked one day 'How do you sell Mooneys? These Mooney buyers want me to tell them about something that happened to the airplane in 1972, like I was there. F**k Mooney buyers'! Cessna buyers don't to that. Piper buyers don't do that. I don't care if I never get another Mooney in inventory!!!'

I just laughed.

 

[gsxrpilot]

Here you go @jgarrison, solved it for you.  

Oh wait, these are running costs... 

[Marauder]

Yep. And Mooney guys do a fair amount of research.
Just for grins, I spoke with a dealer a while back who deals in a lot of different models of planes and occasionally a Mooney. He asked one day 'How do you sell Mooneys? These Mooney buyers want me to tell them about something that happened to the airplane in 1972, like I was there. F**k Mooney buyers'! Cessna buyers don't to that. Piper buyers don't do that. I don't care if I never get another Mooney in inventory!!!'
I just laughed.
 

That’s because the majority of people buying Cessnas and Pipers are most likely newbie pilots and are getting into plane ownership for the first. Lambs leading themselves to the slaughter.

Classic example on my field. A recently licensed PP went out and spent close to $40k on Cessna 172 that had 12,000 on the airframe, needed paint, had no ADS-B, no GPS and marginal avionics.

Shortly after purchase he was in the shop addressing a number of engine issues and shortly after that tossed a $12k paint job on it and another $8k on ADS-B. He still isn’t done.


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