Mooney market? maybe im missing something!

[pkofman]

So I have been looking to replace my 98 Bravo for a while now  with an Acclaim or Acclaim S, and have been actively following the markets for what now seems like a few years. I am really amazed by how the market for Acclaims seems to have virtually disappeared.. Now im looking for FIKI and a turbo  a few other things. The market was thin to begin, but now I get very few listings at all coming across the typical Controller, trade a plane etc.. Maybe its just a Covid , or GA or Mooney thing, but it really seems to have significantly changed over the past year . ( and yes everything is undoubtedly and seemingly  way more $$$$ )

Is it just my perception, am I looking in the wrong places, or is this a thing!

Pete

[1980Mooney]

3 hours ago, pkofman said:

So I have been looking to replace my 98 Bravo for a while now  with an Acclaim or Acclaim S, and have been actively following the markets for what now seems like a few years. I am really amazed by how the market for Acclaims seems to have virtually disappeared.. Now im looking for FIKI and a turbo  a few other things. The market was thin to begin, but now I get very few listings at all coming across the typical Controller, trade a plane etc.. Maybe its just a Covid , or GA or Mooney thing, but it really seems to have significantly changed over the past year . ( and yes everything is undoubtedly and seemingly  way more $$$$ )

Is it just my perception, am I looking in the wrong places, or is this a thing!

Pete

Based upon serial number it looks like Mooney only built about 140 M20TN’s. Some were exported. Some crashed. AviationDB shows 121 airworthy in the US. 
 

There are four for sale right now on controller. That’s over 3%. That’s more than the fleet in general. 

[StevenL757]

3 hours ago, pkofman said:

So I have been looking to replace my 98 Bravo for a while now  with an Acclaim or Acclaim S, and have been actively following the markets for what now seems like a few years. I am really amazed by how the market for Acclaims seems to have virtually disappeared.. Now im looking for FIKI and a turbo  a few other things. The market was thin to begin, but now I get very few listings at all coming across the typical Controller, trade a plane etc.. Maybe its just a Covid , or GA or Mooney thing, but it really seems to have significantly changed over the past year . ( and yes everything is undoubtedly and seemingly  way more $$$$ )

Is it just my perception, am I looking in the wrong places, or is this a thing!

Pete

The market for EVERYTHING has been shrinking, and for some models, has all but disappeared.  Among the hottest sellers of-late are anything with TKS (especially known-ice models of the later Mooneys), and known-ice Ovations in particular.  Controller has about 5 Ovations listed in other countries, and virtually nothing in the US/Canada.  This is down from about a count of 25-30 airplanes listed at any given time about a year and a half ago.

There may be a couple for sale on the private market, but you'd need to do some homework in intelligence-gathering to find one...unfortunately.

[Shadrach]

Not unique to Acclaims. I’m not surprised that a low production number, high performance Mooney is scarce in an aviation market where nice but 50 year old Cherokees have $90K asking prices.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shadrach

[Schllc]

8 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Based upon serial number it looks like Mooney only built about 140 M20TN’s. Some were exported. Some crashed. AviationDB shows 121 airworthy in the US. 
 

There are four for sale right now on controller. That’s over 3%. That’s more than the fleet in general. 

Actually, only two, and the other one isn’t really for sale, and the one really for sale has an stec 55. There are t many left of the few made that haven’t converted to the gfc.

Its not your imagination, but for the last five years or so there has seldom been more than two or three listed in the us at a time.  Usually the surplus were ones with bad history. 
they stayed on the market a lot longer though, that’s for sure. 
you have to buy as is where is to get a good one appropriately priced. 

[flyboy0681]

1 minute ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

This isn’t a Democrat versus Republican issue.  We have increased the money supply by 40% since Covid started. Both parties. Both administrations. Unless we can offset it with increases in GDP, which I don’t think we can, we are going to have 40% of inflation.  Spread out over the next several years, of course.  As the Nobel prize winning economist, Milton Friedman, said, inflation is an entirely monetary phenomenon, yes, in this case only exacerbated by temporary supply chain disruptions.  It really is that simple.  Blaming it on the other party really only speaks to one’s ignorance.

Thank you.

[cbarry]

15 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

This isn’t a Democrat versus Republican issue.  We have increased the money supply by 40% since Covid started. Both parties. Both administrations. The stimulus checks are only the tip of the iceberg. Unless we can offset this increase in the money supply with increases in GDP, which I don’t think we can, we are going to have 40% of inflation.  Spread out over the next several years, of course. The Fed can manipulate to some degree over how long with interest rates.  As the Nobel prize winning economist, Milton Friedman, said, inflation is an entirely monetary phenomenon, yes, in this case only exacerbated by temporary supply chain disruptions.  It really is that simple.  Blaming it on the other party really only speaks to one’s ignorance.

However, wanting to add more fuel to the fire when the house ablaze is akin to arson! That’s not a wise strategy (regardless of party).  That would be like every other Mooniac intentionally dropping their hangar door on their prize bird just to try and maintain a certain “market value” for the remaining fleet—pure nonsense!  Monetary policy controls are extremely elastic and should be used like control inputs while on an ILS—small inputs and then wait for it.

[KSMooniac]

If you're not already on the list, contact Jimmy Garrison and get on his radar. Many of his sales happen without ads on the usual suspects. Might not hurt to contact every MSC and Brian Kendrick (I think I got his name right) and spread the word that you're looking. They might be maintaining your next Mooney right now, and could nudge an owner that isn't using it much to sell in this hot market.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[pkofman]

11 hours ago, Schllc said:

Actually, only two, and the other one isn’t really for sale, and the one really for sale has an stec 55. There are t many left of the few made that haven’t converted to the gfc.

Its not your imagination, but for the last five years or so there has seldom been more than two or three listed in the us at a time.  Usually the surplus were ones with bad history. 
they stayed on the market a lot longer though, that’s for sure. 
you have to buy as is where is to get a good one appropriately priced. 

Question,  Is the stec - 55 a negative? ... just asking as you noted that in your post @Schllc

Edited February 23, 2022 by pkofman
forgot something

[Schllc]

6 hours ago, pkofman said:

Question,  Is the stec - 55 a negative? ... just asking as you noted that in your post @Schllc

I’m not sure I would go as far as to say negative.  I’ve owned two ovations with stecs, and I found them to be capable and intuitive. 
some here actually prefer because of its independence and ability to use the autopilot with an ahars failure in the g1000.

I would say the gfc is a better autopilot with regard to function and stability, and the only impact is has to the plane is value. Most will want the gfc700, if for no other reason, resale. If I were looking I would buy an stec again, as long as it was priced appropriately.  

[Guest]

I take care of an Ovation with the S-Tec 55X, it’s be a maintenance hog.

Clarence

[carusoam]

Please leave Brandon and his whole hockey team and it’s competitors out of conversations on MS…

 

The usual result… somebody reports it… and the thread gets locked down…

Then you can apologize to the guy who is trying to buy a really cool Mooney who started this thread…

 

Yes… inflation sucks… and so does Covid… and being jobless… and being at war…. And having your retirement fund cut in half…

All important issues worth discussing…

Do it in a manner that nobody complains…

 

Best regards,

-a-

[rbp]

14 hours ago, carusoam said:

Do it in a manner that nobody complains…

 

and an in a place where nobody complains! 

[Guest]

16 hours ago, carusoam said:

Please leave Brandon and his whole hockey team and it’s competitors out of conversations on MS…

 

The usual result… somebody reports it… and the thread gets locked down…

Then you can apologize to the guy who is trying to buy a really cool Mooney who started this thread…

 

Yes… inflation sucks… and so does Covid… and being jobless… and being at war…. And having your retirement fund cut in half…

All important issues worth discussing…

Do it in a manner that nobody complains…

 

Best regards,

-a-

Being airplaneless sucks too!

Clarence

 

[exM20K]

In a thin market like this, most of the good planes are sold off market.  It would be worthwhile to discuss exactly what you’re looking for with Mark Woods (Delta Aviation), Fred Ahles (Premier Aircraft Sales), or maybe Jimmy Garrison.  Mark and Fred will see a lot of the later model planes as they or their company sold a lot of them, and like good salespeople, which they are, they keep in touch with their customers.

Good luck.  Mine’s not for sale :-)

dan

Edited February 25, 2022 by exM20K

[pkofman]

On 2/24/2022 at 12:34 AM, carusoam said:

Please leave Brandon and his whole hockey team and it’s competitors out of conversations on MS…

 

The usual result… somebody reports it… and the thread gets locked down…

Then you can apologize to the guy who is trying to buy a really cool Mooney who started this thread…

 

Yes… inflation sucks… and so does Covid… and being jobless… and being at war…. And having your retirement fund cut in half…

All important issues worth discussing…

Do it in a manner that nobody complains…

 

Best regards,

-a-

Thanks . I was simply asking for  resources to find an airplane which is difficult at best and honestly this is probably / appears to be a ridiculous  time to go looking for an acclaim with fiki and other goodies. ( inflation , thin markets, fuel prices Etc etc etc  if it even exists. So few out there.... Truthfully I am not in a panic to buy a plane . I have a great machine and  it does a great job until something comes along

 

[carusoam]

Finding the right plane… is a continuous search…

You never know what is going to cause the right one to come to market at any particular time….

 

Around here… Somebody may give a heads up that they may be planning to sell….

A common route… is to tell Jimmy what you are going to be looking for…. He has his eyes on the market continuously… and is the center of pre-flown Mooney sales… has lists of both buyers and sellers…. Kind of a match maker….

Checking controller often can be helpful…. But, by the time it gets published a few people are going to be in the know before that….

If you don’t know Jimmie… he is around here often… you might recognize AAA or all American aircraft… or the latest name for his Mooney Super Market GMax…  MSer @  jgarrison

https://www.gmaxamericanaircraft.com

We bought our O back in ‘09…  no stranger times then those… 

Jimmie had just listed it for sale… I was there a week later…

Best regards,

-a-

[A64Pilot]

It’s been a year since I bought my J, Pickings were few and far in between, soon as it popped up I flew to see it, and we agreed on a price contingent it passing my inspection. While I was looking the seller got a call offering more than he was asking sight unseen. I’m sure if he wasn’t a “good ole boy” and seeing as how this was Moultrie Ga everyone in aviation knew me, ( I knew the IA who maintained it well) I would have lost it.

Market’s crazy right now and has been, but money will tighten up eventually and when it does the market will change I think, now is not the time to find a bargain 

Edited February 26, 2022 by A64Pilot

[aviatoreb]

Such a shame that Mooney is not producing airplanes right now.  If it were, even with their crummy marketing, I have a strong feeling that sales would be strong in this red hot market.

[exM20K]

Such a shame that Mooney is not producing airplanes right now.  If it were, even with their crummy marketing, I have a strong feeling that sales would be strong in this red hot market.

True, but if they’re losing money on every unit, then they’re not going to make it up on volume.

-dan

[thundermustard]

On 2/23/2022 at 6:45 AM, M20Doc said:

Can’t we try to keep that kind of stuff out of here?

Clarence

Agreed. It is a shame that 1/2 the country will always blame whoever is in the White House at that time for things that they have no control over (and both side do it).

All us consumers have to do is stop buying sh!t for a few months and inflation will go down. But we can't seem to help ourselves.

[carusoam]

 

 

Welcome aboard tm!

 

Half of his country or yours?

walk away slowly and steadily…. 

Politics is best discussed in other places…

 

Aviation economics greatly encourage…

General economics… not so much…

 

MS is best used for sharing aviation experiences…. Pretty much stated at the top of the first page…
 

The political discussions often result in closed threads…. Even perceived political discussions… in case there are misunderstandings…

Don’t get caught up in the random political remarks…

It isn’t easy being new around here…

Most of the rules are hard to find…

it is even difficult to know when to stay on the path or get off of it as soon as possible…

If you are going to aggravate 50% of the readers… it might be a post better for somebody else to launch… 

There is a bit of self policing going on around here… there is a report post button… and a lot of itchy trigger fingers…

Go MS!

PP thoughts only, trying to maximize readership… get everyone up to speed and have them want to stay… 

Best regards,

-a-

[A64Pilot]

14 hours ago, thundermustard said:

 

All us consumers have to do is stop buying sh!t for a few months and inflation will go down. But we can't seem to help ourselves.

Reminds me of when the Pandemic first started, there were a large number of people who were sure it could be eradicated if people would just stay home for two weeks or wear masks.

Unfortunately it’s not as easy as that, it’s nearly certain that the current inflation is due to the monetary supply being so loose right now, which is the cause of people buying so much stuff.

I’m guilty of it, rather than paying cash for a less expensive house, I bought a more expensive one because of the 2% loan, instead of paying cash for a used car, we bought a new one at less than 2% interest.

This behavior was based on the theory that interest rates would eventually skyrocket, like the did in the 70’s and for the same reason, to control inflation, which due to the artificially low rates will get out of control. I’m no economist, but even to me it seems clear

Were it not for that artificially low interest we wouldn’t have done that.

The whole purpose of dropping the interest rates so low as I understand it was to stimulate buying, just it dropped too low, and has continued for too long.

So what has this all to do with the Mooney market? 

It’s caused it to dry up, and prices to be inflated.  If you bought before the supply dried up, and before the prices became inflated, especially if you financed you could come out ahead, or that’s what I’m pinning my hopes on anyway, But to buy now means your paying at likely the top of the inflated price, something that not even the cheap money will offset, it’s likely that many will be just like they were in 08, that is that they will owe more on their assets than those assets are worth in a couple of years or maybe earlier.

According to Zillow houses in my area have appreciated 23% in the last year and I don’t think my area is a “hot” area. It’s likely in my opinion that if you buy a house for 23% more than it cost last year that soon you will be upside down if that 23% evaporates.

I bought a boat in about 09, the Broker I used made the comment that all the closings he attended now two checks were written, the check to buy the boat written by the purchaser, and another by the seller that when added to the purchasing check would pay the loan off.

Where politics come into this is whomever finally does the “right thing” and turns off the free money pump won’t be loved and will likely not be re-elected. Whether they are red or blue. 

So to sum up what I’m saying is in my opinion, and it’s only my opinion is that the time to buy, pretty much anything has passed, because prices are so inflated now, but if you wait once the correction comes, those that have the ability to purchase, especially if they can do so with cash, will get a very good deal, because when the economy slows the first things to sell at a large loss are those luxury items people don’t have to have, the yachts, vacation houses, private airplanes etc.

Now all this is of course just my opinion and I am far from any kind of economy expert, but as an older guy I’ve seen a couple of these cycles and I think this one looks a lot like the others,if anything maybe an even bigger swing, depends on how much longer the rates stay low, I think they have already begun to rise?

Edited February 28, 2022 by A64Pilot