New FV3 updates to the GFS forecast model goes operational today!

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

The GFS forecast model is going operational with it's update today with the 12Z run to the new FV3 dynamical core and improved physics  parameterizations.  This upgrade should leapfrog the ECMWF and other global models and brings unprecedented accuracy to forecasts at the global level.  

[smccray]

Scott-

Question for you- how should I think at the GFS vs the NAM model?  I really like the composite reflectivity model to look at the forecast a day or two out on planned flights in TX.  For example, the model made a flight doable for me when I departed DFW in the morning with storms coming into Dallas, but the models forecast storms moving out by the afternoon when I planned to return.  The models forecast that movement in the storm a couple days out, and everything lined up.

Typically I don't end up seeing marginal cases, but which is the better model to look at?  I suspect the answer is "All of them, but for different things."

Plug for weather spork- it's worth it.  Give it a try.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

3 hours ago, smccray said:

Question for you- how should I think at the GFS vs the NAM model?  I really like the composite reflectivity model to look at the forecast a day or two out on planned flights in TX.  For example, the model made a flight doable for me when I departed DFW in the morning with storms coming into Dallas, but the models forecast storms moving out by the afternoon when I planned to return.  The models forecast that movement in the storm a couple days out, and everything lined up.

Typically I don't end up seeing marginal cases, but which is the better model to look at?  I suspect the answer is "All of them, but for different things."

Scott,

The GFS is primarily a model that does extremely well at depicting the large scale synoptic patterns.  It has a much higher vertical resolution especially at the jet stream level.  So from a wind speed/direction and upper level depiction, the GFS will be the best source.  If you are looking for good precip forecasts, better to use the WRF/NAM or the RAP/HRRR products.