Buying Advice

[zehutiman]

I sure would appreciate some advice and perspective on a prospective airplane:  1980 M20K 231 with a Continental TSIO-360 GB1.  Has an intercooler and Merlyn wastegate.  1850 hrs on it with TBO 1800.  Relatively new cylinders (330  hrs).  Of course, I'd get a PPI.  My thought was to fly the airplane for the summer and then schedule an overhaul over the winter.  What do you think of that plan?

[Fly Boomer]

31 minutes ago, zehutiman said:

My thought was to fly the airplane for the summer and then schedule an overhaul over the winter.

1. Get the most competent and comprehensive PPI you can
2. Borescope frequently
3. Change and analyze oil and filter frequently
4. Get an engine analyzer if you don't have one
5. Watch your temperatures
6. Fly the crap out of it

Ignore TBO -- your engine will tell you when it's ready for overhaul.
 

[irishpilot]

I'm a big fan of Mike Busch and overhauling an engine when it tells you it's time. Lots of YouTube videos and EAA seminars of his talks. His service SavvyMx has saved me lots of $$.

Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk

[KSMooniac]

Agreed with the first two replies. If it has been flying regularly before the purchase, I'd keep flying and monitoring.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[kris_adams]

^what these guys said...based on condition.  with it priced into what you pay for the plane, any flying done before OH is "FREE" lol

[zehutiman]

1 hour ago, Kris_Adams said:

^what these guys said...based on condition.  with it priced into what you pay for the plane, any flying done before OH is "FREE" lol

Good point.

[anthonydesmet]

10 hours ago, zehutiman said:

Good point.

Dido x 6….let us know what the average flight time has been the last few years….Is there any past oil analysis data and engine data previous owner will share? Is there a good engine monitor?  If yes, odds are previous owner was conscience about temps and possibly download and analyzed data regularly.  If there is a standard engine stock gauges and CHT gauge, previous owner might not have been conscientious of temps and how he flew it.

[Rusty Pilot]

I agree with all of the above.  Also, if needed please get good transition training with Mooney CFI that understands Turbo Mooney's.  Temperature management is critical.

[M20F]

The TBO discussion is relevant to how long you intend to own.  IRAN is fine if you intend to own forever.  If you intend to sell you will take a hit.  
 
Buy for your mission if you are applying logic.  99% of folks do not need a turbo.  If you are a long hauler they are great (if you don’t mind O2).  If you are a flatlander going to breakfast every weekend, probably not the best choice. 
 
Personally if I was buying I would wait till next year.  Plane prices are insane right now and by Q1 next year suspect they will be back more into the realm of reality. 

[Fly Boomer]

1 minute ago, M20F said:

99% of folks do not need a turbo.

99% of folks do not need an airplane

[M20F]

1 minute ago, Fly Boomer said:

99% of folks do not need an airplane

I added caveat if you are applying logic.  

[zehutiman]

14 hours ago, anthonydesmet said:

Dido x 6….let us know what the average flight time has been the last few years….Is there any past oil analysis data and engine data previous owner will share? Is there a good engine monitor?  If yes, odds are previous owner was conscience about temps and possibly download and analyzed data regularly.  If there is a standard engine stock gauges and CHT gauge, previous owner might not have been conscientious of temps and how he flew it.

I’d love to hear about your 262.  There’s one for sale right now on Controller, but it’s hours SFOH are deceptive; it actually hasn’t been overhauled in  about 14 years.

[KB4]

8 hours ago, M20F said:

by Q1 next year suspect they will be back more into the realm of reality. 

Simple supply and demand economics here.  No new Mooney supply.  Demand will always out pace supply for M20’s. So goes the price.  If you want to track values—Check past sales on AirMods website, steady increase over 5 years —only gives asking.  
 

If looking to buy, AND found your gem, don’t wait, or you will just pay more.  5 years ago a nice J could be had for less than 80, O for 180.  Double that today. That’s roughly 1.3AMU per month increase.  C models were 30 then. 

[Fly Boomer]

12 minutes ago, KB4 said:

5 years ago a nice J could be had for less than 80, O for 180.

I have a collection of adverts that were interesting for one reason or another when I saved them.  In 2013, a 1987 M20K 252 (N252YZ) was $120,000.  They have gone up a bit since then.  Maybe not double, but a lot.

[M20F]

2 hours ago, KB4 said:

Simple supply and demand economics here.  No new Mooney supply.  Demand will always out pace supply for M20’s. So goes the price.  If you want to track values—Check past sales on AirMods website, steady increase over 5 years —only gives asking.  
 

If looking to buy, AND found your gem, don’t wait, or you will just pay more.  5 years ago a nice J could be had for less than 80, O for 180.  Double that today. That’s roughly 1.3AMU per month increase.  C models were 30 then. 

I am old.  It ain’t my first rodeo, hope I am wrong but the economy looks a little sickly.  When it does people dump toys and bargains are to be had.  

[Fly Boomer]

17 hours ago, M20F said:

I am old.  It ain’t my first rodeo, hope I am wrong but the economy looks a little sickly.

Me too.  Prices going up fast on everything.  Shortages of everything.  And yet unemployment, usually an indicator of a healthy economy, is at its lowest point in 20 years.

DEC OF    UNEMPLOYMENT
2000        3.9%
2001        5.7%
2002        6.0%
2003        5.7%
2004        5.4%
2005        4.9%
2006        4.4%
2007        5.0%
2008        7.3%
2009        9.9%
2010        9.3%
2011        8.5%
2012        7.9%
2013        6.7%
2014        5.6%
2015        5.0%
2016        4.7%
2017        4.1%
2018        3.9%
2019        3.6%
2020        6.7%
2021        3.9%
2022        3.6% (current run rate)

 

[Danb]

Only if we had a crystal ball

[M20F]

5 hours ago, Fly Boomer said:

Me too.  Prices going up fast on everything.  Shortages of everything.  And yet unemployment, usually an indicator of a healthy economy, is at its lowest point in 20 years.

DEC OF    UNEMPLOYMENT
2000        3.9%
2001        5.7%
2002        6.0%
2003        5.7%
2004        5.4%
2005        4.9%
2006        4.4%
2007        5.0%
2008        7.3%
2009        9.9%
2010        9.3%
2011        8.5%
2012        7.9%
2013        6.7%
2014        5.6%
2015        5.0%
2016        4.7%
2017        4.1%
2018        3.9%
2019        3.6%
2020        6.7%
2021        3.9%
2022        3.6% (current run rate)

 

It is a trailing indicator, as I said in my post Q1 probably.  We can do the same thing with fuel prices.  We knew  in May of 2020  (negative price per barrel) where oil was headed in 18 months.

The announcement by Target today and WalMarts reporting two weeks ago show us stagflation is coming.  Employment is driven by consumerism and spending.  When the average Americans money has to go to gas/food versus useless stuff it becomes a snake eating its tail.  Toss in interest rates rising and the housing market is going to cool as well. 

Certainly if you are looking to sell, now is the time.  My uneducated opinion. 
 
PS The Target announcement is particularly telling because they like many have an over supply now in an inflationary market.  That is stagflation in a nutshell.