SUN 'n FUN weather thread for those interested...

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

I thought I'd kick off a weather thread for those that are planning to attend SUN 'n FUN 2021 (or anyone who would like to learn a bit more about weather).  It's really, really too early to make any distinct decisions one way or another, however, it's always good to assess trends.  As I have done for previous events, I will likely take some time and record and post a video or two or three to my YouTube channel to cover a more in depth view of the weather for those who are planning to fly to Lakeland at the start of the event.  

Meanwhile, about the best you can do at this point in time is understand if the weather is going to be warmer or colder than normal or wetter or dryer than normal.  Here is the 3-4 week outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center that show most of the country will be warmer and dryer than normal.  "A" means above average and "B" means below average.

What does this mean?  Above average temperature with below average rainfall implies that we will likely be under a subtropical ridge over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country during the period from April 10 through April 23.  That does not imply that there won't be any weather.  We could see some localized areas of pulse thunderstorms throughout the Southeast U.S. during this time.  Also, it doesn't prohibit a major weather system from moving through the area.  In fact, there is a significant upper level trough expected to move through the Deep South on Tuesday and into Wednesday as can be seen by this 500 mb forecast. 

This will bring some significant weather to the Southeast U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rainfall amounts in the 2-3 inch range over a 12 hour period as a frontal system with some upper level support tracks east through the period. Of course, this is very much subject to change given that this is nearly 16 days out.  But I often like to post something like this so that on the 12th and 13th we can compare just to show how difficult it is to forecast this far out with any certainty.  

Edited March 29, 2021 by Scott Dennstaedt

[carusoam]

Thanks Scott!

I subscribed to your YouTube channel...  

I’m getting more modern by the day...

Best regards,

-a-

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 3/29/2021 at 10:05 AM, Scott Dennstaedt said:

 

 

Won't likely start making frequent updates until April 8th or so, but you can see here that since the first forecast, there is a significant change in the forecast.  Whereas the GFS was forecasting a nasty event for the Southeast, this forecast is just the opposite with decent weather throughout Florida and Deep South.

This will likely change back and forth for the next week or so until it’s about five days out where the forecast will be more certain.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 3/29/2021 at 10:05 AM, Scott Dennstaedt said:

 

No major updates to report at this time.  The Southeast U.S. appears to be free of any major weather system at this point on Tuesday afternoon.  This doesn't imply there will be no threats for icing, turbulence or even pulse thunderstorm activity in Florida.  From the GFS model, it appears there will be a weather system with weak upper level support in the north and central Plains.  And a deep upper level trough impacting the Northeast U.S. that will bring down freezing levels to near the surface in that region.  

I'll likely be up on Facebook Live starting on Thursday of next week to do a more detailed overview of the weather for the region.  Stayed tuned for that announcement.
 

 

[BlueDun]

Thanks!

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

For those interested, I will be doing a Facebook Live presentation tomorrow (Thursday) at 7:30 pm EDT to go through the weather for Monday/Tuesday next week for the SUN 'n FUN fly-in.  It'll likely be about a 20-30 minute presentation and I hope to record it (assuming the Internet gods are shining down on me).  I will likely do another one on Friday and Saturday (and possibly Sunday) if there's something pressing to talk about.  Even if you are not going to the event, you may learn a few things.    

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Reminder…join me tonight on FB Live at 7:30 pm EDT.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Just a reminder that I will be on Facebook Live again tonight (Saturday) at 7:30 pm EDT to go over the weather analysis using EZWxBrief for the SUN 'n FUN event.  Will likely discuss the weather on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Even if you are not attending the event, there is some educational value of listening in.  

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Video posted on FB for those that could not attend live.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Will be doing one last FB Live session today (Sunday) at 3 pm EDT.