Factory Closed Down?

[M016576]

1 hour ago, mike_elliott said:

Ill spend the extra 1 hr15 min and not do the "drive of shame' 

Oh, and I pay 0$ for the electricity on the trip 

But you bring up an interesting point...How many hours last year did one spend refueling their ICE car. Every morning I wake to having 320 miles in the tank, without spending but 4 sec plugging in at night. Not having to have a stop in day to day driving because the car needs to drink is quite a time saver. Havent spilled that first drop of oil doing an oil change either

You are the perfect salesman for a new Tesla!

unfortunately, it’s not as good of a deal any more for a new Tesla... that free supercharger network perk was a pretty nice option.  

[M016576]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

BTW - Do you know or are you just speculating what the load would be on the power grid if all cars converted to all electric?  I am hoping someone who knows will pipe in.

According to the DoE, In 2019, the Entire US produced 3.99 trillion kWh’s of electricity.  
 

according to the DoT, in 2019 passenger vehicles accounted for 3.22 Trillion miles traveled in the US.

a Model 3 Tesla uses approx 26 kWh per 100 miles.

If every passenger car in the US turned into a Tesla Model 3 tomorrow, the demand on the electrical grid would rise by approximately .837 Trillion kWh’s.... about 20%.
 

the top three power sources for American electricity?  Oil- ~37%, Nat Gas, ~35%, Nuclear- ~11%.

while oil may no longer be filling gas tanks... it’s still going to be burned in power plants for a while.  If we really want clean(er) energy- we need to focus more on Nat Gas and Nuclear. (Or making hydro, solar, wind more efficient).

It would be nice if every EV built and produced really did offset carbon emissions 1 for 1... but we aren’t there yet.  Hopefully sooner rather than later- but our whole power infrastructure needs to change for that to happen.

Edited July 6, 2020 by M016576

[aviatoreb]

44 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

The original goal was to reduce the wing area to what would be required in cruise.... and then keep the same stall speed.  The big tip rotors are to reduce the tip vortices (and aerodynamically lengthen the wing).

The problem became with all those 12 motors running at full bore, the airplanes accelerates (go figure).  Then they had to windmill the big tip propellers to add drag   

There's a lot more to it … most of it being one-track minded and not thinking about the whole aircraft.

Oh well - it looks cool anyway.

[N201MKTurbo]

14 minutes ago, M016576 said:

According to the DoE, In 2019, the Entire US produced 3.99 trillion kWh’s of electricity.  
 

according to the DoT, in 2019 passenger vehicles accounted for 3.22 Trillion miles traveled in the US.

a Model 3 Tesla uses approx 26 kWh per 100 miles.

If every passenger car in the US turned into a Tesla Model 3 tomorrow, the demand on the electrical grid would rise by approximately .837 Trillion kWh’s.... about 20%.
 

the top three power sources for American electricity?  Oil- ~37%, Nat Gas, ~35%, Nuclear- ~11%.

while oil may no longer be filling gas tanks... it’s still going to be burned in power plants for a while.  If we really want clean(er) energy- we need to focus more on Nat Gas and Nuclear. (Or making hydro, solar, wind more efficient).

It would be nice if every EV built and produced really did offset carbon emissions 1 for 1... but we aren’t there yet.  Hopefully sooner rather than later- but our whole power infrastructure needs to change for that to happen.

I think your numbers are a bit old.

There is very little electricity generated by petroleum. Im surprised to see nat gas has surpassed coal by as much as it did. I’m also surprised how much is produced by wind.

I attended the first EIA energy symposium back in 2007. I was convinced that their numbers are as good as possible.

here are the latest numbers:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

 

[Blue on Top]

Wind turbines are very inefficient, and they can't afford to take them down.

With that said, I believe that the current wind turbines are fixed pitch.  A large gain would be made by going to variable pitch.

[carusoam]

I think @Ross Taylor has some wind energy experience... and may be interested in the way this conversation has turned...

Best regards,

-a-

[MikeOH]

5 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

Wind turbines are very inefficient, and they can't afford to take them down.

With that said, I believe that the current wind turbines are fixed pitch.  A large gain would be made by going to variable pitch.

I believe modern large wind turbines DO have variable pitch props.  Even a quick Wikipedia search will reveal that.

[Blue on Top]

@MikeOH  Is the rumor true/valid that it takes more energy to make the wind turbine than it will every produce in it's lifetime?

[aviatoreb]

There is an industrial scale wind turbine factory just across the border in Trois Riviere that trucks through their product through our little town all summer.  In several big wide load trucks.  They often stop at the subway just down the street.  The blades and central truss are designed clearly sized with a major aspect in mind, which is the ability to fit them down the highway system on a wide load truck.

[N201MKTurbo]

9 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

Wind turbines are very inefficient, and they can't afford to take them down.

With that said, I believe that the current wind turbines are fixed pitch.  A large gain would be made by going to variable pitch.

The ones that aren’t turning are feathered. I’ve stared at them for hours. 

[MikeOH]

Just now, Blue on Top said:

@MikeOH  Is the rumor true/valid that it takes more energy to make the wind turbine than it will every produce in it's lifetime?

Sorry, can't help you there.  Not an expert by any means; just think they are pretty cool.  Never even thought about the payback.  I do know that many were installed as some kind of investment/tax shelter many years back...then the law changed.  So, you may be onto something as far as payback; may not work without tax advantages??

[Ross Taylor]

7 minutes ago, carusoam said:

I think @Ross Taylor has some wind energy experience... and may be interested in the way this conversation has turned...

Just how DO you remember all this stuff?  But, yes, you're right.  And @MikeOH got it right.  Smaller wind turbines, generally those under 100kW in power rating, don't have variable pitch blades.  That's a generalization, as some rare ones do.  But for turbines over 100kW in power rating, they are required to have two methods of speed control.  One is almost always the variable pitch blade mechanism and the other is a brake...literally a huge disc brake.  

[Blue on Top]

I know in Kansas it pays well for the land owner.  $10,000/year to do nothing.

[Ross Taylor]

10 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

The ones that aren’t turning are feathered. I’ve stared at them for hours. 

When the blades are feathered "flat" like that, you can actually walk out on them like a wide sidewalk.  But generally you don't need to, because there's a door inside the hub and you can go inside the blade from there.  If you are near one that's moving slowly, you can hear fiberglass debris sliding back and forth inside the blade as it rotates.  It sounds a bit like rushing water.  As the turbine spins faster, the debris stays out in the tips and they don't make that sound.

[M016576]

32 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I think your numbers are a bit old.

There is very little electricity generated by petroleum. Im surprised to see nat gas has surpassed coal by as much as it did. I’m also surprised how much is produced by wind.

I attended the first EIA energy symposium back in 2007. I was convinced that their numbers are as good as possible.

here are the latest numbers:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

 

My numbers aren’t old per se... I just misinterpreted the data.  What I was reading was counting total energy consumption- not power generation sources.  This is the source I was using... the same source as you... just I read it wrong- my bad!   https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

Nag Gas is in abundant supply in the US, and it burns clean... so it’s a pretty logical choice to replace coal.

[carusoam]

38 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

Just how DO you remember all this stuff?  

Memory is a funny thing...

where it is stored, how it is stored, how long it stays, how it gets recalled...

Some memories get stored really easily... getting them recalled can be a bear...

Some days recalling memories can be easier than others...

There are even strategies to use to improve memory recall... 

 

You guys are going to enjoy getting older... Cause you already know how this stuff works...  For most of us, the changes occur really slowly.... with predictable outcomes...

PP thoughts only, not a cognitive therapist...

Best regards,

-a-

[cliffy]

If we're going to talk about wind farms then maybe I can get some help on this subject that I have researched for several years and can't find answers. Now my research capability may be sub par but here goes-

I've never been able to find any information on the real economics of a wind farm. Somebody is hiding something!

What is the ROI and when is the break over 

What is the true full life cycle cost and can it be paid for AT A PROFIT from wing generation? 

Has ANY wind farm ever shown a true profit in operation when ALL costs both in and out are factored?  Without tax subsidies? 

WHO is making the money in wind farms? The manufacturers of the wind mills? The farm owners through electric generation or generation only with tax incentives? 

How does one find out WHO actually invests in these farms and if they are actually making any return on their investment?

How profitable are they-if at all? 

The bottom line is who is actually paying the freight on them (the general public through tax giveaways) or do they really show a profit on their own?

I've looked for years to no avail but then again my capabilities may be lacking 

Here's an article I found, albeit a little old, but interesting none the less

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/21/wind-farm-back-of-the-envelope-economic-analysis/

[cliffy]

29 minutes ago, M016576 said:

Nag Gas is in abundant supply in the US, and it burns clean... so it’s a pretty logical choice to replace coal.

I consider natural gas as dino fuel also. I know its not but most think it is no better than dino fuel.

[Ross Taylor]

Hey @cliffy - I'm creeping up on 60, so it's almost my bedtime.     So here's my quick pre-bed response. I was not in the financial end of the big projects here in the US, but I was on smaller scale wind farms in other countries...and none of those worked, financially, without government incentives...except in some rare instances like Alaska or India.  Solar energy is much more reliable and cheaper than wind energy.  Wind has the advantage of being more "energy dense" in the sense that it takes up less land, per kW, than solar does.  So the cost of land is a factor that can impact things one way or the other.  And, in some places (like Alaska), solar isn't a good option, but there's lots of cold dense high-energy wind so turbines are a better option there. In India, the biggest advantage was that the turbines would be on tall towers (of course) which made them harder to "borrow".  Solar panes are a hot commodity in some places.  For the projects I did in Japan, those were viable financially because of government FIT (feed in tariff) that paid the turbine owner a production fee for every kWh of energy produced.

[carusoam]

Nat gas is great...

If you have ever heated a house using....

• Wood
• Coal
• electricity
• oil
• City supplied steam

It has downsides... leaks can blow up the house...

Downsides for...

• Oil always waiting for opec to tighten on the users.... (OPEC has become strangled by its members that include Russia)
• Spills are gigantic in scale... from sunken ships to leaky transcontinental pipes... to my favorite deep sea drilling company losing a rig... or a loose train blowing up an entire small town in Canada...
• Part of used home PPIs include inspecting the underground storage tank...
• metal home use tanks don’t last nearly as long as the house... by the time the owner finds out about the leak... the environmental dogs have come to help you out...
• Everyone becomes a commodities trader as the tank goes low...

 

• Coal has all kinds of environmental issues for burning it...
• Getting it out of the ground isn’t very easy either.
• The health issues for those that work in the industry are terrible.
• The house is full of smoke, and some sulfur odor that comes with it...
• CO when not burned cleanly....

 

• Nat gas is nearly free.
• It comes out of the ground while looking for other things like oil.
• So much in excess, it is often flared... (burnt)
• Transporting via pipeline is simple... As far as transporting energy goes...
• The US has so much of it... it is getting liquified and sold to other countries...
• Using it is pretty simple too...
• Turn on the heat... it always works...   (good to have some back-up electric plans too... the fan needs to blow air through the system)
• Gas heaters can be very efficient and wear pretty well... lasting decades.
• Every now and then there have been Nat gas leaks...   Nat gas gets an odor added to it So people will detect if it is happening in their house...
• If an industrial leak occurs prior to the mercaptans being added... this is bad.

 

• Solar power has the house installations to deal with...
• not always very pretty...
• Government support was everything, until around 2009 or so... Europe put an end in place for how long their financial support would last... First Solar was a great investment in solar panel companies... (FSLR) they couldn’t build enough panels to meet the demand... without govenrment support, the interest tapered...

 

Nat gas engines would be interesting... but, like Hydrogen... handling the fuel is a heavy/weighty challenge... we were starting to see Nat gas turbine train engines a while back... 
 

Propane is an also ran kind of Energy when compared to Nat gas...  easy to put in a tank though...

PP thoughts on energy commodities...not an investment advisor....

Best regards,

-a-

[M016576]

2 hours ago, cliffy said:

I consider natural gas as dino fuel also. I know its not but most think it is no better than dino fuel.

Nat Gas is a fossil fuel- so you’re right to consider it one.  But it’s characteristics of combustion and it’s abundance make it a better choice (imo) than the others (coal, oil, etc)

As of today- The US doesn’t  have the capability to meet its domestic energy demands purely by solar/wind/hydro.  Power can also be expensive depending on what part of the country one lives in, and even what time of the day it is.  Perhaps new battery technology or advances in turbine efficiency will improve the economics of wind and solar... but if we as a country are going to add an additional 20% yearly energy consumption, we’re going to need to figure it out... and quickly.  I think that’s the biggest hurdle to everyone driving EV’s in the next 5 years- just finding the additional power.

on another note- I think what will drive the nail into the coffin of the ICE will ultimately be the cost to insure a car that isn’t self driving/electric.  If the self driving vehicles are indeed safer, premiums for manually driven ICE vehicles will rise to the point to where It will no longer be affordable to drive them.  Sure- some people will still maintain such cars- but the cast majority will be forced to adopt the safer, self driving technology.

and where will that leave flying?  If self driving cars become the only way to travel... why would pilots even be required on airplanes?

1). (Total thread creep)
2). (I don’t necessarily fully embrace the thoughts posted above on self driving / piloting ... but do see a possibility for such an outcome... very curious what others think of this possibility)

[Jerry 5TJ]

4 hours ago, M016576 said:

.... I think that’s the biggest hurdle to everyone driving EV’s in the next 5 years- just finding the additional power.

Looks to me as if there’s plenty of electric power generation and distribution capacity in the USA to charge a bunch of electric vehicles, so long as they charge during the off-peak hours:

ref: EIA.GOV

[mike_elliott]

9 hours ago, M016576 said:

You are the perfect salesman for a new Tesla!

unfortunately, it’s not as good of a deal any more for a new Tesla... that free supercharger network perk was a pretty nice option.  

Yes its gone, and I was probably one of the last to get it (July 19). All in, however, I think those that have to pay are charged very little, something like .15/kwh, making a "fill up" from 1/4 tank to almost full (Not good to fully charge a battery, even on your cell phone) will cost about $10,. and off you go for another 270 miles or so.

Next up is solar roof tiles to cover those pesky nightly top ups

[mike_elliott]

6 hours ago, M016576 said:

Nat Gas is a fossil fuel- so you’re right to consider it one.  But it’s characteristics of combustion and it’s abundance make it a better choice (imo) than the others (coal, oil, etc)

As of today- The US doesn’t  have the capability to meet its domestic energy demands purely by solar/wind/hydro.  Power can also be expensive depending on what part of the country one lives in, and even what time of the day it is.  Perhaps new battery technology or advances in turbine efficiency will improve the economics of wind and solar... but if we as a country are going to add an additional 20% yearly energy consumption, we’re going to need to figure it out... and quickly.  I think that’s the biggest hurdle to everyone driving EV’s in the next 5 years- just finding the additional power.

on another note- I think what will drive the nail into the coffin of the ICE will ultimately be the cost to insure a car that isn’t self driving/electric.  If the self driving vehicles are indeed safer, premiums for manually driven ICE vehicles will rise to the point to where It will no longer be affordable to drive them.  Sure- some people will still maintain such cars- but the cast majority will be forced to adopt the safer, self driving technology.

and where will that leave flying?  If self driving cars become the only way to travel... why would pilots even be required on airplanes?

1). (Total thread creep)
2). (I don’t necessarily fully embrace the thoughts posted above on self driving / piloting ... but do see a possibility for such an outcome... very curious what others think of this possibility)

Self driving even at level 2 has been shown to be about 9x safer than your "average" non self driving car by NHTSA,  you are spot on with this post IMO. Did I mention TSLA is getting in the insurance business? After all, they have data on YOU and how YOU drive, something the insurance actuaries would drool to get. Self driving mile data is one of Tesla's huge advantages over the up and coming EV' car makers, along with the enormous amounts of battery and battery management data.

The potential impact on the grid is huge if we were all to switch to EVs tomorrow. Did I mention Tesla is getting into the energy grid business? With Tesla's upcoming million mile battery, it now becomes economically practical to have a truly distributed grid system. Google Tesla autobidder, oh heck, here is one of many on the subject 

AOC wont have her way and we ditch flying, but rather (in spite of the FAA), what we fly will evolve. How, I am not sure, I leave that forecasting to prophets on the list with far more insight than I

[mike_elliott]

9 hours ago, Blue on Top said:

I know in Kansas it pays well for the land owner.  $10,000/year to do nothing.

Thats unfair, Ron. The land owner has to cash the check and pay taxes. At least for now.