State of single engine prices - Thoughts?

[glbtrottr]

As a heart attack am I serious.  

Ok! Respect your opinion. Hope you’re right but o don’t see John Galt anywhere


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[Echo]

40 minutes ago, glbtrottr said:

Ok! Respect your opinion. Hope you’re right but o don’t see John Galt anywhere


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Right back at you sir.  Respect your input.  Call me an optimist

[1980Mooney]

49 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

I don’t keep an airplane at Gillespie County airport but I see the point you are trying to make.

The point I am trying to make is that what happened over the weekend had nothing to do specifically with any of the account holders at either of the two banks that failed, even though some of them benefited beyond what their accounts were insured for.

Had the Fed not done what they did over the weekend the the risk was very real that come Monday morning the stock market would have opened much, much lower. “Small” and “medium” bank stocks would have plunged and there could have been a run on them as well. Thankfully all we have today is a gripe session today about covering accounts larger than $250,000. I don’t like that aspect any better than anyone else. But had they not done that, the conversation we would be having today would be about how 1/3 of the stock market value was just wiped out and that the Fed has closed the market today and there would be people lined up all over the country trying to get some of their money out of their failed banks. Instead today regional bank stocks have rebounded and the stock market had a rally.

The FDIC insures each account up to $250,000. Maybe an individual or corporation stupid enough to not open more accounts to spread their money around should be limited to that much per account. But either way, based on what happened yesterday and today, the announcement they made over the weekend proved to be the right choice.

That is a valid point - it is like a captain making the decision to dump valuable cargo overboard as his ship takes on water while trying to make it back to safe harbor.

Now in the case of SV Bank, most of the depositors benefited beyond what their accounts were insured for - 85% uninsured.

This bank had massive holdings making it the second largest failure in history.  I don't know what percentage of insured vs uninsured deposits should be but I don't think it should be 85% uninsured.  Somehow their management was rewarded for mismanagement. 

It does not address how this bank or Signature (lured into the even less regulated murky Crypto currency) was able or allowed to get into such a mess.  And if such a large bank can get into such a weak position that a single Tweet by Peter Theil can cause a run and insolvency, then there needs to be more regulation and oversight.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of accountability or consequences to the ones that made the decisions and profited from them - time will tell.

[Echo]

49 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said:

That is a valid point - it is like a captain making the decision to dump valuable cargo overboard as his ship takes on water while trying to make it back to safe harbor.

Now in the case of SV Bank, most of the depositors benefited beyond what their accounts were insured for - 85% uninsured.

This bank had massive holdings making it the second largest failure in history.  I don't know what percentage of insured vs uninsured deposits should be but I don't think it should be 85% uninsured.  Somehow their management was rewarded for mismanagement. 

It does not address how this bank or Signature (lured into the even less regulated murky Crypto currency) was able or allowed to get into such a mess.  And if such a large bank can get into such a weak position that a single Tweet by Peter Theil can cause a run and insolvency, then there needs to be more regulation and oversight.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of accountability or consequences to the ones that made the decisions and profited from them - time will tell.

How about same regulation and oversight and less compensation for risk takers?  Crony Capitalism, "It's NOT just for Republicans anymore..."

[T. Peterson]

5 hours ago, glbtrottr said:

You’re kidding, right?

I worked for a multibillion dollar company for nearly 2 decades as employee # under 1000 to 70,000 upon acquisition- that did gobs of business with SVB, appreciated 90,000 percent, and then I went on to work at several startups propped up by SVB. Have a couple of IPO’s, a much larger number of acquisitions and failures under my belt.

One particular group has been programmed to measure one a other by the virtue they show. Save the puppies, save the children, cure world hunger, let transgender people have special privileges in religious schools, save the homeless, criminal reform, give everyone “free healthcare, education and basic income”, basically right every wrong in the world by forcibly taking taxpayer money - and charging a handling fee as a politician overtly or covertly for making people feel good about being virtuous. Bankruptcy trustees have nothing on some local city councilmen.

The big scam which was limited to a few geographies went national and global in the last dozen or so years. It’s always been there but it is now institutionalized and protected by courts.

Dodd / frank created the big collapse but now people are saying it didn’t- if only we kept worshipping those two, all would be rosy. The gall…

Japan? Try more like China. There is a difference between where we should go and where we are headed …Kids are being wholesale indoctrinated on the benefits of socialism, Marxism and communism. Plenty of social media pride by “educators” who’ve never set foot in Soviet Russia, haven’t lived in North Korea, who allege criticizing the CCP is racist, and dismiss Venezuela as a tiny country they can’t find on a map. But don’t get their pronouns wrong…. Priorities. Can you explain to them what a bank is? Short of how it works with Venmo to spend the money their parents give them, or how they got financial aid on time, they don’t care.

A balanced budget? Great thinking, but California realized that providing free healthcare was even too big a scam to not be noticed since it was estimated at $400bn to give free healthcare to undocumented people, knowing full well the real cost would be in the trillions. And even in light of a budget shortfall, Gavin is considering reparations in a state that never supported slavery. Over $100bn will have been spent on the “bullet train” and California won’t own a train station, track or train…but progress is good and fast trains are sexy.

People don’t want to accept that government money comes from the people…and every corrupt construction project that kicks back money to the approving politician benefits only the lawmakers and hurts the public.

SVB has for a long time been a ponzi scheme along with Vc and PE pump and dump raiders who make money in creative ways all while raising the cost of all.

We saw $7 and $8 dollar gas in California and things will never normalize now that the cat is out of the bag or the camels nose is in the tent. You like paying $8 due q carton of eggs at the store?

But some people say we are living under the greatest administration in history.

As others have said, it’s just the start.

Makes me feel good to see more multi trillion dollar bills pass while China demands their balloon back that our government says isn’t theirs


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I can’t say anything because I get called out for being political, but it should be okay to just high five another MSer! Anyway, I like how you think! Oorah!

[glbtrottr]

I can’t say anything because I get called out for being political, but it should be okay to just high five another MSer! Anyway, I like how you think! Oorah!

Right back at ya, T


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[WilliamR]

Most banks have about 50% +/-10% of their deposits by $ as insured by the FDIC. 

FDIC insurance limit is by entity, by bank, and by account category (joint, trust, etc). It is not by account. Keeping deposits to less than $250,000 is just not manageable for a large company who regularly disburses/collects $50MM or more in a day. 

 

[jetdriven]

17 hours ago, Echo said:

How about same regulation and oversight and less compensation for risk takers?  Crony Capitalism, "It's NOT just for Republicans anymore..."

Socialized losses, but  privatized profits

[glbtrottr]

How about same regulation and oversight and less compensation for risk takers?  Crony Capitalism, "It's NOT just for Republicans anymore..."

How about capital punishment or life in prison without parole for government officials who embezzle or hurt the collective taxpayer through deception by greater than a certain dollar amount? Term limits? The idea of lifelong politicians making tens or hundreds of millions when they’ve never held a job besides government doesn’t pass my smell test or many others for that matter. I wonder if selfish interests contributed to the current situation…hmmmm


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[RoundTwo]

Not to derail this thread creep, but based on recent VRef data for Q1 2023, prices have dropped again. Base price for 1988 J dropped over $10K. I only wish I had taken a snapshot before they did their update to get a more comprehensive comparison.

[JayMatt]

I bought my Mooney a year and a half ago almost, somewhere in there. Everytime I land I think about how crazy it is that I have my own wings. If the value went to 10k in 6 months I still wouldn't care, I try not to focus on any of the silly details of money. I have enough to get by and I've created memories in this plane you can't put a price on. I've done everything from have mags go out in flight to fly a bishop of the catholic church to his destination. Now I'm painting it and I'm get close to being done. This bird isn't just some plane to me... it is me. 

[aviatoreb]

14 minutes ago, JayMatt said:

I bought my Mooney a year and a half ago almost, somewhere in there. Everytime I land I think about how crazy it is that I have my own wings. If the value went to 10k in 6 months I still wouldn't care, I try not to focus on any of the silly details of money. I have enough to get by and I've created memories in this plane you can't put a price on. I've done everything from have mags go out in flight to fly a bishop of the catholic church to his destination. Now I'm painting it and I'm get close to being done. This bird isn't just some plane to me... it is me. 

I see you are repainting it right way - yay you!

I only repainted mine after almost 10 years of ownership but I have been improving it every single year a little bit a little bit!  

I tell you what - between operating costs like fuel, insurance, hangar, standard maintenance, and improvement costs which for me are just fun gifts to myself and my plane, Ill say the acquisition cost is just a minute part of the cost.  I bought at the tail end of the 2007 financial crisis and acquisition cost was fantastic - but if I had paid the price I am now insuring it for - over double that acquisition cost, it would still be a minor part of the whole cost.

...and the best part - I have an amazing ability to close my eyes to the cost and just fly!

[Echo]

I think it is fantastic that many Mooney owners have accumulated enough wealth that they have minimal concern for value of their planes.  What a great place to be.  One did just state that he boght when prices were down due to the financial climate.  The old "a plane is worth whatever someone is willing to pay" is of course true.  I am looking for that number to go down, not up.  Just read a story that legacy (and in my opinion great nav-coms in the Garmin 430&530) parts are running out and you better plan on an upgrade.  I see a bunch of planes sitting that have been majored decades ago and have these units or older in panel and they have not had tanks sealed, interiors upgraded and they are well over $60k.  No thanks.  I will wait until price reflects "as is" value.

[cliffy]

Just a couple of observations-

If you bought a new car today at say $80,000  and calculated your maintenance costs at the factory store AND your depreciation for say 5 years out, add in your cost of gas for 15000 miles a year and your insurance What would your annual expenditure be? How close to your annual airplane cost are you?

I bought my D model 25 years ago, I figured that my "investment" was closer to buying a new car than an "investment grade security". My plan has always been to treat this "investment " just like a new car. Once I'm done with it it has depreciated to zero value, any extra value I receive at the end is a bonus. I used it up and enjoyed the ride. No different than buying my 35 year old Rolls Royce. I bought a very good one and plan on using it up by the time I'm done with it. No thought of "investment grade acquisition" in it either. Just like my 60 year old airplane it will be a fine ride while it lasts but the end will come sometime. 

There is a coming time when our airplanes are going to be so old that resurrection will not be possible, saleable value will be nil and the scrap heap is where they will all wind up. How many well used 40-50 year old cars are out there now and how many where made? The view forward is the same- scrap yard eventually. 

Value = 0  Unless you are a professional trying to realize even a breakeven position at the end of your ownership is a fool's errand. Cars and airplanes? Both are fun but they are both a depreciating assets in the long run.  

Edited March 16, 2023 by cliffy
add

[jetdriven]

1 hour ago, RoundTwo said:

Not to derail this thread creep, but based on recent VRef data for Q1 2023, prices have dropped again. Base price for 1988 J dropped over $10K. I only wish I had taken a snapshot before they did their update to get a more comprehensive comparison.

 I think prices are going to head down somewhat, but Vref is kind of laughable at least lately. We went to up our  insured value on our plane to 160K, and the insurance lady said that it would only Vref for 108k. 

[aviatoreb]

3 hours ago, Echo said:

I think it is fantastic that many Mooney owners have accumulated enough wealth that they have minimal concern for value of their planes.  What a great place to be.  One did just state that he boght when prices were down due to the financial climate.  The old "a plane is worth whatever someone is willing to pay" is of course true.  I am looking for that number to go down, not up.  Just read a story that legacy (and in my opinion great nav-coms in the Garmin 430&530) parts are running out and you better plan on an upgrade.  I see a bunch of planes sitting that have been majored decades ago and have these units or older in panel and they have not had tanks sealed, interiors upgraded and they are well over $60k.  No thanks.  I will wait until price reflects "as is" value.

One point of what I said was, whether I paid what I paid around 2009, or if I paid today's rate, it is still a minor cost relative to the cost of owning, fixing it up, feeding it and all the above.  So just factual comment.

When I bought I thought at the time I would buy this mooney for a while and maybe "move up" to a twin, or whatever...in time.  That would be more stress.  I sometimes still eye single engine turbines. I have no business owning a single engine turbine...for cost of ownership reasons, but I could acquire one.  So it is much more fun owning a wonderful Mooney than something else that I cant afford but goes a little faster or carries more, or whatever.

[MikeOH]

15 hours ago, Echo said:

I think it is fantastic that many Mooney owners have accumulated enough wealth that they have minimal concern for value of their planes.  What a great place to be.  One did just state that he boght when prices were down due to the financial climate.  The old "a plane is worth whatever someone is willing to pay" is of course true.  I am looking for that number to go down, not up.  Just read a story that legacy (and in my opinion great nav-coms in the Garmin 430&530) parts are running out and you better plan on an upgrade.  I see a bunch of planes sitting that have been majored decades ago and have these units or older in panel and they have not had tanks sealed, interiors upgraded and they are well over $60k.  No thanks.  I will wait until price reflects "as is" value.

Here's another perspective for you to consider: Do you want to own a plane to enjoy and fly, or do you want to be able to say, "I got a good deal because I waited x months/years"?

So, how much is your time WITHOUT a plane worth to brag you didn't 'overpay'?  To use your $60K "overpriced" example, how much lower would that price have to be for you to buy and feel you got "a good deal?" $20K? $30K?  Annual operating costs are not too far off those numbers....in five years of ownership I've spent way more than what I paid for the plane.

Don't get too hung up on purchase price.  The deltas you are worried about are going to be lost in the rounding after a few years of ownership.

[RoundTwo]

6 hours ago, MikeOH said:

Here's another perspective for you to consider: Do you want to own a plane to enjoy and fly, or do you want to be able to say, "I got a good deal because I waited x months/years"?

So, how much is your time WITHOUT a plane worth to brag you didn't 'overpay'?  To use your $60K "overpriced" example, how much lower would that price have to be for you to buy and feel you got "a good deal?" $20K? $30K?  Annual operating costs are not too far off those numbers....in five years of ownership I've spent way more than what I paid for the plane.

Don't get too hung up on purchase price.  The deltas you are worried about are going to be lost in the rounding after a few years of ownership.

My plan was to buy a “right now” plane and wait until prices dropped to find my forever plane at a bargain price. Then I saw a FB post and that plan went out the window pretty quickly. On Monday I’m flying myself and my Mooney CFI up to Gaithersburg to pick up my first Mooney which could very well turn out to be my forever Mooney. Who knows, if prices crash like some predict/hope for, it will be bad enough that moving up to an Ovation at 50 cents on the dollar that I won’t feel the sting of having overpaid buying now. Somehow I don’t think we’re going to see a bloodbath like that.

[MikeOH]

1 hour ago, RoundTwo said:

My plan was to buy a “right now” plane and wait until prices dropped to find my forever plane at a bargain price. Then I saw a FB post and that plan went out the window pretty quickly. On Monday I’m flying myself and my Mooney CFI up to Gaithersburg to pick up my first Mooney which could very well turn out to be my forever Mooney. Who knows, if prices crash like some predict/hope for, it will be bad enough that moving up to an Ovation at 50 cents on the dollar that I won’t feel the sting of having overpaid buying now. Somehow I don’t think we’re going to see a bloodbath like that.

EXACTLY!

 I think you’re being very smart to buy what you want now; the transaction costs and hassles associated with buying ‘entry level’ now and ‘trading up’ later when the market ‘crashes’ make it a fool’s errand. I agree that a real bloodbath is unlikely. It’s a ‘paper loss’ anyway if you are really buying to own and enjoy; only a ‘flipper’ is going to panic over a market drop.

[Echo]

9 hours ago, MikeOH said:

Here's another perspective for you to consider: Do you want to own a plane to enjoy and fly, or do you want to be able to say, "I got a good deal because I waited x months/years"?

So, how much is your time WITHOUT a plane worth to brag you didn't 'overpay'?  To use your $60K "overpriced" example, how much lower would that price have to be for you to buy and feel you got "a good deal?" $20K? $30K?  Annual operating costs are not too far off those numbers....in five years of ownership I've spent way more than what I paid for the plane.

Don't get too hung up on purchase price.  The deltas you are worried about are going to be lost in the rounding after a few years of ownership.

$30k.  The liklihood of needing an engine with those for sale is high.  To enjoy and fly a plane it needs to not be waiting on a new engine.  These used prices are ridiculous in my mind with the unknowns.  Just because I could does not mean I would or should.  I have another thread that discusses this.  I used an example and received good feedback.  Not throwing money down a rat hole.  Planes can sit unsold in hangers or the flush nubes can overpay in the whatever they are willing to pay.  The economy IS tanking.  I am Buffet waiting.  In no rush.  Glad you have a beautiful plane to fly.  Enjoy   My operating costs are nowhere near $30k.

[MikeOH]

15 minutes ago, Echo said:

$30k.  The liklihood of needing an engine with those for sale is high.  To enjoy and fly a plane it needs to not be waiting on a new engine.  These used prices are ridiculous in my mind with the unknowns.  Just because I could does not mean I would or should.  I have another thread that discusses this.  I used an example and received good feedback.  Not throwing money down a rat hole.  Planes can sit unsold in hangers or the flush nubes can overpay in the whatever they are willing to pay.  The economy IS tanking.  I am Buffet waiting.  In no rush.  Glad you have a beautiful plane to fly.  Enjoy   My operating costs are nowhere near $30k.

Hmm, not sure if, by ridiculous, you mean prices are DOUBLE what you think are reasonable, or just a $60K plane??? IMHO you will be waiting a long time for a 50% crash!

My all-in costs are around $15K for 75-100 hours per year. So, two years for your $30K over price. Fuel alone is $5K, so your “no where near” costs have to be in between 5 and 15.

And, the risk of needing a new engine is always there; best to buy a run-out. (That’s actually exactly what I did)

 I guess I’m just not understanding the point of your posts? If it’s just to bitch about high plane prices, then I’ll bow out. I thought you wanted to fly and if $30K is stopping you then ownership may not be for you! Just sayin’ you best be able to weather a hit like that as an owner…I think a lot of ramp rat planes exist because of owners that couldn’t

[Echo]

27 minutes ago, MikeOH said:

Hmm, not sure if, by ridiculous, you mean prices are DOUBLE what you think are reasonable, or just a $60K plane??? IMHO you will be waiting a long time for a 50% crash!

My all-in costs are around $15K for 75-100 hours per year. So, two years for your $30K over price. Fuel alone is $5K, so your “no where near” costs have to be in between 5 and 15.

And, the risk of needing a new engine is always there; best to buy a run-out. (That’s actually exactly what I did)

 I guess I’m just not understanding the point of your posts? If it’s just to bitch about high plane prices, then I’ll bow out. I thought you wanted to fly and if $30K is stopping you then ownership may not be for you! Just sayin’ you best be able to weather a hit like that as an owner…I think a lot of ramp rat planes exist because of owners that couldn’t

Interesting.  I understand you perfectly.  There is a huge difference between not understang and not agreeing with someones opinion.  I guess I am just really tough to understand?  I am good with that.

[Echo]

What did you pay for your run out F?

[cliffy]

Many airplane owners buy one airplane above what they can really afford thus-

So many airplanes not flying or with so much differed maintenance

The industry is replete with the above.

Airplanes are not "investment grade" assets 

Unless you are an expert flipper then they are always a depreciating asset. 

Either one can afford that or one can't - Its a simple rationalization.

Just like buying a car. 

[LANCECASPER]

I am amused by people looking or a "deal". Yes we all would love a bargain basement price on something that's worth much more than we paid for it - but that mainly happens on TV shows. About the only exception is that you personally know of someone who hasn't put it on the market and buy it directly from them at less than you think it's worth.

If an airplane is underpriced and it hits the market it will sell in the first couple days and it's unlikely you'll ever see it or get there soon enough. If it is overpriced it will languish on the market. Neither the seller or the buyer determines the price, the market does. The best "deal" is a Mooney that has been very well maintained by people who know Mooneys and has had a caring owner. There are some rough ones out there. When a good one hits the market, which will probably prove to be the least expensive in the long run since it's been maintained well, be prepared to pay the price and not look back. The money it costs to bring something back from the ash heap is a lot more than buying a seemingly "over-priced" nice one.