This market is a little nuts

[MikeOH]

3 hours ago, Rwsavory said:

"Yes, Honey, I listed the plane for sale."

“See, if we’d put those dual GTN750s in last year like I wanted it would have sold by now”

[T. Peterson]

On 8/21/2022 at 10:34 PM, carusoam said:

This is exactly the discussion going on by central bankers lately…

Nothing wrong with what so many friends have done….

 

But the collective side affects are more buyers than sellers…. Leading to inflation….

 

Central bankers raise interest rates to keep the weaker hands from buying so much stuff….

 

Where trouble lurks…. And it is not as common today… when your house is mortgaged with a variable rate mortgage…. The monthly cost starts sliding up quarterly….

There is an autocatalytic disaster as rents and mortgages increase…. People start selling the toys… as more people sell, prices drop precipitously…  yet they still owe the monthly loan amount or take a beating on the sale of the toy…

 

So… this is called a recession….

The US central bankers think… or say… they can see a soft landing coming….  Stopping inflation without falling into recession…

We will know how well the central bankers have done by watching the unemployment numbers…

 

If unemployment continues down at the steady rate… this is fantastic…. (No matter how you measure unemployment…)

If it increases… remember unemployed people can’t afford toys, homes, and other things….

rewind the tape… visit 2008 again…. Homes stopped selling, and everything related stopped working until the banks were getting crushed…

 

The fed reserve meets again this week…. Let’s listen to see how well they are doing…

Avoid variable interest loans, unemployment, and other hardships…

 

If the soft landing isn’t possible… things will get much tougher…

Thank getting through Covid…. Feeding people was a great priority…

and please leave out the politics….

 

Threads get shut down quickly when politics gets perceived….

Best regards,

-a-

Anthony, you are the master of talking about politics without talking about politics!

 

[JayMatt]

On 8/26/2022 at 9:30 AM, 1980Mooney said:

 

It is called the "BIG LIE".  All planes lose value. The only question is how fast.  

Focusing on the "price" (i.e. the purchase price) is just an illusion. In order to keep your plane "at the same price" requires you to spend cash constantly - and lots of it.

Let's say you find a decent M20J for $150,000 and you plane to keep it 10 years.  And then you hope to sell it for $150,000 so you are going to keep it in a hangar, out of the elements in order to reduce the rate of deterioration of the plane..

During those 10 years you will have lots of costs that are basically "fixed" regardless of whether you fly a lot or barely.  You cannot escape these costs.

• Hangar - will cost $250-550/month depending on the city - let's say $400 a month.  That is $48,000 over 10 years.
• Insurance - let's say $3,000/yr. Thats is $30,000.
• Annual - let's say $3,500/yr. - and no big repairs.  That is $35,000.
• Wing tank leakage - let's say you will incur the cost of 1/2 of a reseal for repairs or reseal over 10 years.  Thas is $5,000.
• Engine - let's say 1/2 of an overhaul over 10 years - either an overhaul hits you or it reduces the value.  Fly a little and the engine deteriorates from long periods without use.  Fly a lot and you wear it out.  Either way you have costs. Let's say $20,000.
• At least one oil change per year in addition to the annual.  Some will say there should be one every 3 months with would be 3 additional even if it is just sitting.  Here on MS people are reporting over $500 for oil changes now with oil testing.  Let's say $300.  That is another $3000 over 10 years.  
• Prop - same thing over 10 years let's say half the cost of a 2 blade prop.  That is "4,000.
• Dry rot/hardening/compression of rubber tubes, tires, landing gear Lord discs - let's say $3,000 over 10 yrs.
• Data and other subscriptions - I bet the average pilot/plane owner pays $400-500/year for data on panels and mobile devices and for subscriptions like ForeFlight.  That is another $5,000
• Panel and Autopilot - let's say that you will pay for 1/2 of a panel upgrade over 10 years - let's say $15,000

 OK so you will spend $168,000 cash over 10 years in order to keep your plane "at the same price".  And there is nothing in that spending for paint or interior.  Nothing for window plastic deterioration.  Nothing for corrosion.  AND NOTHING FOR INFLATION IN THESE FIXED COSTS OVER 10 YEARS.

You can argue whether these are high side or low side but you will basically spend the "price" of your plane over 10 years just to maintain this price.  Basically you lose about half of your total investment over 10 years regardless of flying a lot or a little.

You are better off flying a lot.  Your incremental cost is primarily the variable costs of fuel, landing fees, tearing up tires, wear and tear, the occasional incident, prop strike, gravel damage, bird strikes, hail/weather damage, hangar rash etc.

When it comes to the true cost of airplane ownership we lie to our spouses, we lie to other pilots and we lie to ourselves.  There is no positive ROI in owning a Mooney.  Plane ownership is a cost.

Compared to what tho a house or anything else? Planes have increased in value and with the rate of inflation I'm sure they will continue to increase. A house will cost 500k on 300k in that same timeframe with interest and everything else. Repairs and what not. Everything in life deteriorates, the only way any item of value makes sense financially is if you rent them all out and try to get other people to pay all the cost. 

[mikey757]

I just recently caught this thread but had to respond. As I have been reaching into retirement age, I have seen more and more of family, close friends, and others who have been leaving this world in increasing numbers and making me realize more and more how valuable our time is.  How much time have I wasted sitting in a vehicle on the road trying to get some place that the airplane could get me to so much quicker and with so much pleasure. I attest that some of the money spent on this venture is just COP money. (Cost of Pleasure). Life is, for sure, shorter than we realize sometimes. 

[0TreeLemur]

On 11/23/2022 at 4:32 PM, mikey757 said:

I just recently caught this thread but had to respond. As I have been reaching into retirement age, I have seen more and more of family, close friends, and others who have been leaving this world in increasing numbers and making me realize more and more how valuable our time is.  How much time have I wasted sitting in a vehicle on the road trying to get some place that the airplane could get me to so much quicker and with so much pleasure. I attest that some of the money spent on this venture is just COP money. (Cost of Pleasure). Life is, for sure, shorter than we realize sometimes. 

My thoughts exactly.  I flew regularly from age 18-30, then got married/kids/job/mortgage and all that.  Airplane ownership seemed entirely out of reach.   Except for a wonderful six month stint in Australia in 2002, I flew only occasionally after that.  Then I woke up one day at age 53 and realized I could afford to own an airplane!  Discovered Mooney's and haven't looked back.

Buyin' and ownin' ain't the same thing.  Buyin' is the easy part!  Nobody who can afford to own a personal airplane does it to save money.   They do it to save time!  It helps if you enjoy spending money on your hobby.