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WilliamR

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Everything posted by WilliamR

  1. Sorry, housing costs are included. See the BLS website. I go there occasionally. It's stimulating reading. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm
  2. Someone must have slept through Econ 101. This comment is simply not true. Core CPI which is what you are referring to was created in the 70's. Headline CPI or Headline Inflation includes food and fuel and is also measured monthly like Core. I see why people are confused this past week as both rates were the same, but that's just a rare coincidence. If you're focused on parts prices I would look at Core CPI and just goods, not services. Services late last summer was almost double goods. So, a little bit of parsing of data is helpful. I'm more of a PPI guy myself, but that's just me, Jerome Powell, and the rest of the Fed board. PPI cuts out a little bit of the noise. For work, I'm less focused on retail consumers and more focused sellers/producers/service providers which aligns better with PPI. In my personal life, I focus more on Core CPI as I am not sensitive to volatile food or fuel prices. Side note: Hangar supply is very often a permitting issue on the very broad whole (as someone who lends to FBOs). At some airports the environmental studies are eyewateringly long and expensive (having read a few, I think any dufus could write one). There's a reason why the large FBOs don't do a lot of greenfield development. One thing is for sure, this hobby or whatever you call it won't get cheaper.
  3. A turn around of Mooney would simply start with a focus on the typical first steps for a turnaround; overhead and WC. To be clear, my comments earlier were not primarily focused on Mooney's past. If that's the only thing someone gets from my post, they really missed the mark. The timing of the solicitation for Privates and the whole idea of a subscription model is a huge red flag. It's a very typical play for a company desperate for cash and is usually the last gasp before it closes. Summary: this is a train wreck, I would not give LASAR any money upfront until they have a very clear and saliant list of what the issues are and how they plan to overcome them. Don't hold your breathe for that. Neither Mooney nor LASAR seem to have that ability or experience. OK, this has been fun. I need to focus on the M&A deals that actually make me money. Oh, and if someone gets the Private Placement Memorandum, please do NOT share it or a summary of it. Again, that's MNPI. William Rutkowski
  4. Couple thoughts. First, anyone who viewed Mooney's financials should NOT comment. They are in possession of MNPI and can be sued for tortious interference especially now that Privates are being solicited. Second, this LASAR plan fails within a year or maybe never even gets off the ground (see what I did there?). Based on the following. Third, LASAR's video showed lack of sophistication and I don't mean just the terrible production quality. The message was neither crisp nor enlightening. I get we are only talking single digit millions here, but as a 30 year Investment Banker who's seen a lot of presentations over the lifecycle of a company, that video was outright a waste of time. This latest message takes the lack of sophistication further (announced the need for funding AFTER you announce the deal). That's way backwards but in line with how they described the take over of LASAR; no real plan and no foresight to the issues. Fourth, it doesn't matter whether you consider yourself a lender or equity holder by paying the upfront subscription or entering into the Privates. The result is the same, you're equity given the lack of collateral based on some of the materials from LASAR and the 1st stage pitch distributed here several years ago. I bet NOLV is at best $500,000. Fifth, any creditor can involuntarily declare Mooney bankrupt should the amount of debt meet the limit (limit routinely increases but is surprisingly small). However, I would bet there's no debt here. Mooney couldn't even get terms on payables (a low bar) according to Mooney's hobbyist CEO. Also, unlikely any equity investor converted to debt (its usually the other way around). Lack of debt actually makes a buyout here easier. The change could just be a paperwork exercise with as little as $1 being exchanged. Ask Bombardier how that would work. They did it in 2017. Last, this train wreck was predictable years ago when the latest ownership group came in. A lawyer as a CEO rarely works (Frank Blake at HD being the rare exception). A lawyer who has no operating experience in any manufacturing much less aerospace (the issues here are not specific to the aerospace industry), funded by friends and family money, and wants to do a turnaround as a hobby? Well, that's laughable. Hey, I get it though, sounds cool at parties to say I am the CEO of an airplane manufacturer. I've had to make tough credit decisions. I've funded into companies that eventually went BK. I've negotiated forbearance agreements. An investment decision on LASAR's "scheme" isn't a close decision. It's just terrible. Btw, my name is William P. Rutkowski in Atlanta. Anyone is welcome to look up my credentials in LinkedIn. NOTE, THIS IN NO WAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINACIAL ADVISOR BEFORE INVESTING.
  5. As noted 21L/3R has many dump trucks on it day and night for awhile. 16 is no gem of a runway either, but at least longer than 3L/21R and the slope is working for you. I know the plane and owner. This plane flies a good amount and looks like it was flown two days after the incident and then this past Saturday. Pilot also gets regular training from a Mooney knowledgeable CFI (not me). It's pretty flat on the 21R overrun for a bit. If you are going to miss, that's where you want to do it. Didn't see any tracks in the over run yesterday morning. So, it probably didn't go very off the runway. For clarity, I am not defending or admonishing the pilot here. Barely left the Plaza Fiesta parking lot on the first tear drop. Phew! That's hardcore. Glad no one was hurt. For some, abnormals can be a huge distraction.
  6. Sorry for the late follow up due to work obligations. I was able to sneak out one night and lube the pins. Works perfectly now. I've probably read the maintenance manual 50 times including when I wrenched on them at my family's maintenance shop and never noticed lube needed or called out for the pins. Now the door latches firmly and snuggly but not at all difficult. @Z W and @Marc_B, thanks. Next time you're at KPDK (Atlanta), reach out. I owe you at least a beer or your choice of non-alcoholic beverage. Thanks William
  7. @Ragsf15e PM me your address and I am happy to send you a set of Grainger sourced bushings and rollers noted earlier in the thread. I didn't pay attention to the quantity per order and way over bought. I assume you need 8 for both seats? I installed the Grainger ones earlier this year on the passenger side and have had no problem so far. My original rollers weren't that worn, but these do glide a little better. I had ordered only the pilot side from Lasar last year and the quality of the roll and fit is imperceptible between the two. William
  8. Thanks! As lubing the pins is the easiest option. I'll try that first. Hoping to break from work one night in the next week and mess with this. I'm confident my pins are not lubricated since I've had the plane 20 years and never lubed the pins. Always latched easily. Stick ordered. Already have the silicon grease, but a good reminder I need to apply it. William
  9. @Marc_B thanks for the very good detail. We are using the same seal. The tightness is on both doors. I don't think the top clamp is the problem on the cabin door as I can tell on both doors the pins are hard to engage in the holes. The doors are flush with the airframe as they were before. Now, just very tight. On an early fitting, I did notice the bulb was squishing out of the frame causing binding, but that was corrected. Also on an early fitting I came to the conclusion that as you noted, the seal for the baggage door near the hinge kind of straddles the door frame edge. The paper strip trick is a good idea and will do that. Looking again at your pics, my bulb is just about as close to the edge "unsquished" than yours that is "squished". So, maybe I need to go just a little further inboard on the doors. Let my try once more and will follow up with pics if I continue to have problems. Not sure where Gee Bee's comment is coming from as I'm not dissatisfied with what I received. I'm just trying to perfect the install. I paid at the time of my order. So, @Gee Bee Aeroproducts if there was some problem with my payment, please let me know and I can get my bank to find out what the problem is. You may contact me at the e-mail from which I placed my order to sort that out. Again, I appreciate the help. William
  10. Used the thin walled one as Gee Bee noted which is the far right one in the pic he provided of the three seals. I'll try stretching it. Thanks
  11. @Marc_B, Thanks for the detailed writeup and pics. Wish I thought of the plastic sheeting. I'm usually smarter than that. In any case, I also used Gee Bee's new seal, but am looking for some advice. I did not "stretch" the seal at all at installation. I did install the bulb part exactly as you have it in your posts and in the post Gee Bee Aero shows. The seal is very good...too good, actually. Both doors are very, very tight to close. Do you think stretching it would help? @Gee Bee Aeroproducts, any advice? Thanks, William
  12. The same service is also provided by Sirius for marine for $17.99. Not that I would ever advocate lying to Sirius.
  13. With a 360-sb, My LOP ops and temps are generally the same as OPs. ROP, at 28" and 2500 RPM (~75%) flying in the teens, at 13.7-13.8 gph, I see TIT low 1500's, ~100-120F ROP, and CHT just under 380 on the hottest (#5) with temps ISA +10 to 20C. My baffling is exceptionally tight. Cowl flap fully closed. No GAMIs.
  14. $85,224.00 with a core credit of $19,000.00. Delivery charge was ~$1,100.00. My core was accepted. So, no additional $19,000 charge. During that time they would occasionally run specials that they would accept any core in any condition. So, I wasn't really worried Airpower would try to gig me on the core.
  15. I ordered a factory reman'd TSIO-360-sb from Airpower right at 26 mos. ago (a lifetime ago when concerned about supply chain issues). It was promised in 4-6 months and received in about 5. I contacted several overhaul shops including Zephyr, Gann, Western, and Pinnacle to name a few. They were all running about 6 mos. and provided similar warranties as the factory reman. None of the overhaul shops would commit to timing on the accessories, however. Price was also hard to compare. None of the overhaul shops would price out a full kit of accessories which the factory reman provides including exhaust. However, chasing down some accessory costs, I found the difference in price between full kit overhaul and factory reman to be within ~10% of each other. I had neither the time or patience to chase around a half dozen accessory sellers/overhaulers. In my case, I found the market to be very efficient. Sounds like the market really hasn't changed in the last 2 years. William
  16. MY GP shows ADSB traffic on both VFR (sectionals) and IFR (enroute) charts. I used to trace my taxi clearance on the taxi diagram and then my georef'ed plan follows the red tracing both in FF and GP. On GP with the addition of smart charts that is no longer workable. The smart taxi chart is georeferenced but you can write on it. The gv't taxi chart you can write on but it's not georef'ed. Anybody find a way around this? What am I doing wrong? William
  17. I would not say doing work without owner authorization or not even trying to discuss annual inspection findings despite the owner asking is good communication. Ignoring e-mails after asking for an update every couple of weeks I would not consider good communication either, but that's just me. I've never had a shop mess so many things up in my 38 years in GA and 20+ years of aircraft ownership ($5,000+ worth). Got to the point they would fix one thing and break another and not without some push back. After a couple days of that I run out of patience. Happy to provide my e-mails with them (phone calls were rarely returned) on my encore conversion. It is eye opening. P.S. Do they own the zip tie company? Never seen so many in my life. Zip ties on intake tubes, zip ties on engine mounts, zip ties everywhere! Oh, and someone should buy them a label maker. Circuit breaker labels hand written on masking tape is weak. I'm fancy like that, though. Ha!
  18. Here are two pics where the line comes from the separator side of the baffle. As I remembered, there is a nipple towards the bottom of the oil fill tube that the side line connects to. The nipple points outboard. Hope this helps. See the mediocre pics. The pic of the oil separator wasn't the best since the #2 alternator was in the way so I didn't include it, but it's exactly like the one pictured in this forum, tube out the bottom and another out the side towards the bottom. Got it on the owner. Anything for an Eagle driver...even the family model. Best, William
  19. I would have thought it was in the engine IPC where the small "side" tube goes. Clearly, I'm wrong there. Going from memory on a TSIO-360-mb (and I think its the same on the -SB; have to check) the small "side" line goes to the oil fill tube which is right there on the other side of the baffle. Guess I need to reacquaint next time I go to the hangar on my -SB. I'll try to take a break tonight and snap a pic or two. Rags, I think we've met before. You fly for NJ, and flew F15's right? William
  20. So very lucky from what I assume was very quick action to shut the engine down. I was acquainted with two pilots in separate similar incidents that perished. Both on takeoff. One was a partial blade separation and the other was a full blade separation. Neither plane traveled more than 0.5 miles before crashing. First was fatigue on a fixed pitch prop. The second was improper prop maintenance on a constant speed. William
  21. I've witnessed that exact same rip in the exact same place on a Mooney. The one I saw was due to something caught in the bottom on the door (think headset cord). Door was then closed on the cord which flexed the door to slip tight to the skin and maybe a little under. There was no issue or tightness closing the door. Door was a bit hard to openand was then forced open slightly and "pop", skin is ripped. It was clearly apparent the door was jammed a little only when trying to reopen. The pilot was surprised the skin ripped so easily rather than either the fuselage skin or the door just giving a little. Lots of ways to fix it given the non-structural nature. The repaired rip mocks the owner every time they are entering the cabin. William
  22. Ah, got it. Sorry for the confusion
  23. Have you looked here? https://www.bendixking.com/en/support/downloads-and-manuals
  24. I 2nd the 6. They are cheaper than the other 6 seaters mentioned here. A 6/300 would be my preference and they are about a 135kt-140kt plane (at least the ones I flew and instructed in). They have good range and carry a load. As a new pilot and prospective owner, I would encourage the use of a good broker unless you have a friend whose been around the block a few times and can help you navigate the process. It's a process. FYI, the most recent Flying or AOPA mag had an article for 1st time buyers. It's worth a read. A few axioms: 1. Buy your last plane first. 2. It's more expensive to upgrade a plane than it is to buy a plane with the upgrades. 3. Just because a maintenance shop says they are a "Service Center" does not mean they are the best or even good. Unfortunately, the only J that was looking for a partner in the Atlanta metro that I knew of was recently sold. Best of luck, William - KPDK
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