ilovecornfields

I don’t think we’ll ever accomplish that, I was just thinking of maybe adding another layer of Swiss cheese.

Dumb question, but why don’t the insurance companies offer a rebate to install a landing height system or something else that yells at you if you forget to put the gear down? Seems they would make that money back quickly with the rate of gear up landings we have.

@Jerry 5TJ has mentioned that he keeps a mechanic on retainer which seems to work well for both of them. Seems like that model might get more popular.

Thanks for all the responses. Apparently his group decided to go with a different project but my son did reluctantly agree to teach me Python 3 in his free time so maybe I’ll get to work on this later.

^^^^^This! Until you experience it, it’s difficult to explain how suddenly and unpredictably you will be in IMC and stuck there for a long time. I’ve actually worn an N95 mask on top of my cannula while climbing through this crap. My mechanic seemed unconcerned but appeased me with an early air filter and oil change.

Ever have your wing tiedown chain melt into the asphalt?

I use ForeFlight. I thought the TAF was issued four times a day and only updated if there was a big change which required a human to notice the change, care about the change and then issue a new forecast. I guess I haven’t noticed a lot of forecasts getting updated in time for it to be useful for me right before departure.

So many questions: 1. Will it pass CA smog? 2. Why do I need a trailer? Is it not self-propelled? 3. Why would you give a teenager a Mercedes?!

I apologize if I’m being unclear. I have very limited knowledge of both weather and AI so I’m sure both my thought process and communication are somewhat flawed. What I was imagining was something like a RAIM prediction tool that would constantly update and predict the weather at the airport when you arrive. It sounds like MOS does this to some degree but I was imagining a more dynamic model that was constantly updating and would flag if there was a significant change (like no longe lr VFR at destination). For example, once I flew to Arcata, CA (KACV) which is right on the coast. It was completely clear when I left and the TAF and MOS both predicted IFR conditions in the evening. Within a couple of hours of departure it was LIFR as the marine layer moved in much earlier than predicted and I barely made it in. I was wondering if some of these machine learning models were able to determine in real-time when the actual weather deviates from the predicted and provide a more accurate prediction both in the short term and in the future. Maybe MOS does this already. I know most of us do this already when we’re flying and we notice the actual weather is different than predicted we start to doubt the forecast and behave more conservatively. Probably make less of a difference for those who are instrument rated but for VFR pilots it might be nice to have an another tool to let you know when you should be more cautious or expect to divert to your alternate. My hangar neighbor regularly has to retrieve her plane from an airport on the other side of the hills because she’s not instrument rated and can’t get in when there’s a marine layer. If she had a better way of knowing beforehand when the field was going to go IFR it might help her with her flight planning and airplane relocation.

Any reason you wouldn’t go to an MSC like Top Gun? I was just there last week and have always been impressed by their Mooney-specific knowledge. I don’t think you need an MSC for an oil change but for something like this it would probably be worth it.

I think what you focused on is more relevant to the overall risk of the flight which is very useful, but what I was interested in was just the last 15 minutes. How likely is it that the field is VFR (or above your minimums.) I think this is very different than what you did because it would be hyperlocal and seems much less complex than the overall weather throughout the route of flight. My programming experience is limited to using Basic on my Apple IIe and trying to program an Arduino, but it seems that with the technology available now it would be relatively simple (for those with the knowledge and skills) to make a program that predicts the terminal conditions, checks to see the predicted vs. actual and then modifies the model to try to improve accuracy. It seems that if you did this ever hour for a number of months to years the local model might get pretty good. If Again, not my field so maybe it’s more difficult than I’m imagining but at least from what my son is telling me the machine learning technology is already there.

That’s what I was thinking. I have a friend who’s a relatively new VFR pilot and lives near the coast, but sometimes the TAFs are for places more inland so they don’t predict the marine layer very well. The MOS is better, but not great. Seems an AI could constantly compare the actual weather against the predictions and come up with a more accurate hyperlocal model.

Might try talking to this guy: https://soniaviation.com

Good points. The more I think about it the more clear it is that I don’t understand AI. My son said they just had a “machine learning” segment that involved linear algebra. I said “you mean like matrices, eigenfunctions and stuff like that?” He said yes so now we’re both confused. It’ll be interesting to see where this stuff goes

So, my son is doing a generative AI camp this year and they have to come up with a project. I was wondering if anyone has used AI for flight planning. I tried asking Google Bard if the local airport would be below minimums tomorrow and got a garbage answer including how the minimums for a visual approach are one mile but three miles for an instrument approach. Seems like it might be pretty easy to check all of the METAR. terminal forecasts and MOS along the way, map out your possible diversion airports and give you some sort of probability that the weather would be VFR, MVFR, IFR or LIFR as well as computing the risk using one of those tools like the MMOPA-FRAT. Has anyone tried this? Any thoughts?

I guess my next questions should be if anyone knows the part number for the factory EGT probe in an Ovation 2. Seems easy enough to replace it and see what the readings are.

Don’t forget a case of beer!

But how many will do it for $150-175???

I think for the price range you’re looking for, you may have a hard time getting someone to do it. Spending $200 on fuel to save $100 on an oil change might not make a lot of sense either. Maybe you can ask @kortopates to talk you through it for the mere price of a steak and lobster dinner. That should cost about $150-175.

Try Kurt at Expert Aircraft in French Valley (F70).

At one of the airport I regularly fly into the controller has mentioned that there’s more flexibility for the ILS compared to the RNAV approach for the same runway. Both approaches have the same minimums and the RNAV has an easier missed approach so that what I usually request but I guess with the ILS they can vector you closer in than with the RNAV. I once had a controller tell me to hold as published on the KBFL ILS 30R on a day with particularly crappy and bumpy weather with my family on board. I didn’t really want to do that and I knew the RNAV didn’t have a hold so I just told him that we’d already set up for the RNAV and there was no hold published so could we just get vectors to final. He let us have it but then told everyone else to expect the ILS and gave them all holds

I might be willing to part with my TKS 310 HP Ovation with WAAS , stormscope, engine heater and flight director for $400k.

Someone who happens to know a lot about airplanes just offered to go look at the plane for you. That seems pretty generous. I’m sorry no one took you up on the invitation to chauffeur you back and forth to go look at a plane you’re interested in for the cost of meals and gas. There must certainly be something wrong with people.

Not all of them have it but it’s a good idea. Those button batteries are no joke. They’ll melt through your esophagus in no time. When my son was little balloons and button batteries stayed far away from anywhere he could reach. He’ll probably outgrow me by next year so I’m sure he’ll start putting stuff where I can’t reach it soon.

Greg is great. Real asset to the Mooney community.