Jump to content

MikeOH

Supporter
  • Posts

    5,451
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    34

Everything posted by MikeOH

  1. I went from flying a manual gear M20B rental to owning my own electric gear M20F. Insurance yawned; not even a checkout required. I picked it up from its pre-buy location and flew it home
  2. You quoted my post and I don't see where I said any SPECIFIC percentage. But, fine, let's use 0.5%. Where did you pull the 70% infection rate from? Bear in mind that the 1918 flu pandemic, with pretty much ZERO mitigation efforts, infected only 30% of the world's population. Yet again, I am NOT saying to do nothing. The present draconian policy will, no doubt, reduce the total number dead. But, at what cost to society? It's harsh, and no one likes to admit it, but there is a limit to how much a life is worth. Is it worth ruining the economy for the next 5 to 10 years, or more, to save 1,000 lives; 10,000 lives; a million? This cost/risk analysis should not be ignored. And, I think it is. We are trading our liberties and economic future based on poor data, with the emotional argument that we need to do 'everything we can' to save lives.
  3. Italy may not be a good comparison for a few reasons. First, Italy has been a rather popular destination for Chinese tourists; i.e., they may have had a disproportionate number of visitors with the infection versus other countries. Second, Italy has demographically aged (susceptible) population. Third, they have had a very large number of 'ordinary' flu deaths for at least the past five years. Note the 68,000 flu deaths in the three year study period; not sure where you are getting, "Far beyond what they see for a normal year from flu deaths." Here's an excerpt from the journal study (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext): Results We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively). Conclusions Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers. Don't misunderstand me. I am NOT saying we should do nothing. I am saying we should look closely at whether we are overreacting and causing unrecoverable damage to our economy. I think we should be paying attention to the points raised by the likes of the Stanford professor I quoted earlier. It troubles me that it has already become politically incorrect to even question this. (Take a look at aviatoreb's response to my post)
  4. Aha! That sounds pretty neat! I've spent quite a bit of time working my way through my proposed route looking at soundings. I'm headed to the App Store now to spend the $15. Thanks again for the PIREP.
  5. Yeah, I'm jealous! I pay $360/mo just to rent a county hangar...and I only have a foot and a half clearance off each wing tip!
  6. I just took a quick look at that app. It looks pretty close to what I grab from the rucsoundings.noaa.gov site. Does the app perform some kind of analysis to help, or is it just a different depiction? Looks like it may have some filtering ability, but hard to tell from the screen shots on the App Store site. Thanks!
  7. And, all of this is perfectly applicable to the "normal" flu which, EVERY year, kills 20,000 to 40,000 people in the US alone. They are just as dead as the 200 who have succumbed to COVID-19. Yet, society doesn't bat an eye, nor impose the draconian sanctions we are now experiencing. As more data is coming in, the R0 number is dropping from the crazy high original estimates...it may well end up close to "normal" flu's 1.3...I've read recent estimates of COVID-19 may end up between 1.5 and 2.5; still a pretty wide range. Other data is showing the fatality rate may be in the few tenths of a percent range for ideal age groups. Again, not that different from typical flu. Older folks don't fare well with flu, or many others, illnesses that younger people tend to weather. Is the new normal going to be lockdowns anytime a new strain shows up, simply because we don't yet understand it? There MUST be a risk/cost analysis done. Clearly that didn't happen this time.
  8. Software only let me give you one 'LIKE'; you should get 100. Hell, make it 10,000 in keeping with lame 'statistics' we are being fed
  9. Hmm, I'd hardly call his 'arguments' crushing by any stretch of the imagination. Also, his CV pales in comparison to the Stanford guy. The Harvard guy seems to argue that we have to do EVERYTHING because we CAN'T take ANY chances, in the absence of data saying otherwise. Well, the hard question, that the Stanford professor was getting at, is at what cost do you protect citizens? And, he raises some interesting unintended consequences beyond monetary. But, look at the horrific economic carnage already wrought on the stock market. Small businesses are already being obliterated. 15,000 cases/200 deaths, to date, due to coronavirus. Flu, to date 2019-2020: 20,000 to 40,000 DEATHS. Where is the outrage? This happens each and every year! Yet, we aren't on lockdown??? Do we really have enough data (even the Harvard guy admits we don't have much data) to impose the draconian measures we are seeing? Certainly, the beauty of imposing such measures is, after the fact, one can always speculate how much worse the deaths would have been had they not been imposed. But, what at what cost to the rest of what makes us a society?
  10. Roughly 50,000 (300 feet/roll, about 2800 miles from LA to NY)
  11. For another perspective (note the guy's CV; he's not just another schmuck with an opinion): https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
  12. Today I received a letter from the Carnegie Hero Fund Commission with notification that Thomas Hunnicutt was awarded the Carnegie Medal for his extraordinary act of heroism in pulling Mark from the crash. Very well deserved.
  13. Interesting....I'm going to keep my short ALUMINUM tow bar. Believe me, it will bend before the truss will dent
  14. Yeah, airlines and military that store their planes in desert climes like Mojave and Arizona will be glad to know storing them in locations next to oceans is just fine https://pomametals.com/salt-air-inland-distance-for-metal/
  15. Not trying to discourage anyone, but make certain you are aware of ALL the ways you can be charged. They may not all be called fees...but money out of pocket by any other name! For example, they may charge due to TSA, or other security costs, etc. IOW, the 'landing fee' might just be one of many.
  16. BWA, HA, HA! You're killin' me (IOW, get a quote BEFORE closing on the deal)
  17. Can you disable the cellular/SIM portion and see if the interference is reduced/goes away?
  18. If this is the OP's first plane, you are giving sage advice.
  19. One of the first things I did after getting my Mooney was to replace all tie wraps with Adel clamps. I've seen tie wraps cut right thru steel. Sorry, not going to risk motor mounts and fuel lines for convenience.
  20. I'm careful when pushing even with my Armstrong model
  21. Yeah, who is the MSC that had you replace the governor over this??? So I can stay away!
  22. Yeah, I get that. I installed a LED landing light and spent $100 to have my A&P sign it off. Maybe it won't hold up...but, if I have some anal retentive IA balk at my A&P's approval, I'll just tell him to put in the GE bulb and give me the LED light back. The hangar fairies will reinstall and I'll pick a different IA for the next year's annual
  23. Depending on cost, you might want to do that. You have something legal to stand on.
  24. Maybe. Yet, again, my point is that an approved 337 represents a legal, approved installation.
  25. HAH! Okay, I'll indulge you! A TSO is not the same as a standard part. But, obviously, you're just trying to build something you can legally install. Using the 'previously approved data' would seem to be a path to getting a 337 approved. I STRONGLY disagree that 'all of these chargers are essentially the same." As a practicing EE, I can assure you they are not; especially in regards to EMI/RFI. It costs extra components to achieve low EMI/RFI performance; the cheap options tend to lack the necessary components. A part becomes standard when it conforms to the appropriate/applicable STANDARD specification (e.g. MS or AN hardwares). There is not, to my knowledge, a FAA recognized standard for USB chargers! It's more than building the same. For one thing, it is common to have certified quality systems in place to insure consistent production processes are used.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.