How much will the market bear for a nice J

[chriman17]

I keep looking at Jimmy Garrison's 205J and continue to get stuck on the fact it's a 100% stock J with a base asking price of 119k. I'm concerned with the fact if I upgrade the panel along with a few other things I'll end up being extremely upside down in it where I find myself in A36 territory. My question is how much would the market bear for a really nice J like Jimmy's 205 with an updated panel? Also if you guys were doing the upgrade, what would you guys do?

Edited August 16, 2019 by chriman17

[Hank]

6 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

My question is how much would the market bare for a really nice J like Jimmy's 205 with an updated panel? 

The market will bare a lot more in a sub-par J, but it will bear a good bit on a fine J.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself there. Jimmy has literally written the book on used Mooney values. You can reach out to him for his Used Mooney Value guide. Be advised that aircraft selling prices have been rising for the last year or more.

Good luck in your search.

[carusoam]

+1on Hanks insight...

 

...and there’s more.

There isn’t a market like being described...

There are only individuals willing to pay for a plane...

That depends on many things... like the economy expanding... unemployment being very low... inflation being stable and low...and how well things are going at the personal level...

When new, J’s cost about 200amu... and they didn’t get WAAS based GPS approaches...

So... at 120amu... what makes that expensive, is... somebody else is willing to pay for it...

The competition is only one other person...

 

As far as the economy goes... it has been expanding for over a decade... some people are thinking it may come to a grinding slow down.

The federal reserve bank helps everyone keep an eye on the details... something weird happened, as they had to lower the interest rate the other day... they were expecting to raise rates on ‘auto-pilot’ last fall... that didn’t work very well...

 

the really good news... if you don’t have cash to buy a 120amu plane... interest rates are incredibly low right now...

 

Chriman,  being upside down on an airplane implies that you intend to sell it somewhere in the future... 

We are closing in on peak economy... nobody knows when you are going to sell... and what the economy is going to be doing when you sell...

Why Compare to A36s when you can compare to a better plane like the Long Body.  The economic challenge is still very similar...

Planes are expensive, cash is tight, and for a few AMU more... I can get a (fill in the blank)...

 

PP thoughts only, not a banker...

Best regards,

-a-

[chriman17]

19 minutes ago, Hank said:

The market will bare a lot more in a sub-par J, but it will bear a good bit on a fine J.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself there. Jimmy has literally written the book on used Mooney values. You can reach out to him for his Used Mooney Value guide. Be advised that aircraft selling prices have been rising for the last year or more.

Good luck in your search.

Yes I'm aware he has written the book on Mooney values and I'm aware market prices for used aircraft are on the rise, but I'm equally aware we are currently in a bull economy that could change in a moment's notice. I really like the aircraft due to its condition, but given this is my first one I really don't know what I want (M20J, F33A, A36). I worry if I were to put 40/50k into the panel before realizing it didn't meet my needs after a couple of years, I'd end up getting clobbered. If you were to ask me today I'd say I need to carry 4 adults with luggage 500nms and an A36 would be the ticket, but I may realize it's really only ever my wife with an occasional 3rd person and the J fits the ticket perfectly. If I knew my mission, I would be less concerned with being upside down.

Edited August 16, 2019 by chriman17

[carusoam]

Get to know your mission...

Get to know your finances... 

Get to know your concerns...  being ‘upside down’ has  always happened since the beginning of time...  most people didn’t recognize it because of something called inflation...  inflation would erase the image of being upside down...

How do you feel about being in over your head buying a plane?  There are some nice M20Cs at half the price of the M20J... without half the speed penalty...

 

When you are buying a forever plane... the finances are a lot easier to bare/bear... 

The cool thing was looking to buy an M20J in early 2007... there was one  for sale for 140amu that I was looking at... kind of peak pricing of a sort... later in the year I was looking at a Missile instead, at a lesser price... by the time 2009 came around the M20J money was used to buy an M20R...

So much can change in a year.  Be ready to weather a storm. But don’t spend your life worrying about it...

PP thoughts only... not trying to rain on the M20J dream...

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

Hmmm...

left out the answer to what would I do...

1) Buy the plane that meets the mission with coolest panel I could afford...

2) Do no upgrades for a long time...

3) Get through the first year’s annual to see how well my PPI worked...

4) Eat right, and exercise, and go see a real doctor... to be able to keep flying her...  

5) maintain some dough for the inevitable... engine OH, or mode C, or 2020, or something that comes along...

6) Year 10 is coming up...  the O might not make a very good forever plane... but it’s almost there anyways...

7) Take a good look at your operations costs... if you don’t like the capital cost of the plane... the operations cost will probably mask the capital cost... 

Jump in, the water is fine... it doesn’t get any better than this... There is always going to be bumps in the road... plan for it...

Best regards,

-a-

[Eight8Victor]

35 minutes ago, carusoam said:

 Be ready to weather a storm. But don’t spend your life worrying about it...

 

Thanks A, I needed to read that. 

[RogueOne]

47 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

Yes I'm aware he has written the book on Mooney values and I'm aware market prices for used aircraft are on the rise, but I'm equally aware we are currently in a bull economy that could change in a moment's notice. I really like the aircraft due to its condition, but given this is my first one I really don't know what I want (M20J, F33A, A36). I worry if I were to put 40/50k into the panel before realizing it didn't meet my needs after a couple of years, I'd end up getting clobbered. If you were to ask me today I'd say I need to carry 4 adults with luggage 500nms and an A36 would be the ticket, but I may realize it's really only ever my wife with an occasional 3rd person and the J fits the ticket perfectly. If I knew my mission, I would be less concerned with being upside down.

Not trying to offend, but if you can’t figure out your mission we probably are also not going to be able to do so.

[chriman17]

I think the real issue is not truly knowing my mission and without knowing that I really don't know what to buy. I've always liked Mooney's, but recently discovered the f33a and felt that was a nice balance between the Mooney and an A36. Finding a decent aircraft at the right price in this market has proven challenging

[RogueOne]

Somebody just bought that J...

Reaction is

A. Remorse

B. Relief

 

[RogueOne]

Just now, chriman17 said:

I think the real issue is not truly knowing my mission and without knowing that I really don't know what to buy. I've always liked Mooney's, but recently discovered the f33a and felt that was a nice balance between the Mooney and an A36. Finding a decent aircraft at the right price in this market has proven challenging

I own an E.  Another Mooneyspacer had a beautiful E and upgraded to an f33.  He is having fun.  Both are great planes.  Can not go wrong with either in my opinion.  Find the best one within your price point equipped the way you want it and enjoy.

[MIm20c]

I feel that this J is priced well for what it offers. In fact IMO is priced better than any of the 252’s currently on the market.  The overhaul is top shelf and the condition of the plane looks very good (although it’s very hard to tell by pictures). 

As far as avionics I’d dump everything but the 196 com unit. The AP is a KAP unit without altitude preselect so I’d ditch it in favor of the Garmin unit. 

Sooo...

10 inch G3x

gfc500

G5 backup

PSE7000bt

Gtn 750 or 650

GNX 375

Old 196 com

Like the a36 I feel the 205 will support, value wise, a full panel makeover like this. 

[chriman17]

13 minutes ago, RogueOne said:

Not trying to offend, but if you can’t figure out your mission we probably are also not going to be able to do so.

No offense taken, the reason for the question is to better understanding J market so I don't over invest. If I find it doesn't meet the mission, I don't want to get killed making the switch. I'm sure once you've owned one for a while you'll know your mission much better. Until then you're shooting darts in the dark.

Edited August 16, 2019 by chriman17

[RogueOne]

Just now, chriman17 said:

No offense taken, the reason for the question is to better understanding J market so I don't over invest. If I find it doesn't meet the mission, I don't want to get killed making the switch. I'm sure once you've owned one for a while you'll know your mission much better. Until then you're shoot darts in the dark.

Useful load in the Beech is likely more.  We found that kids in back were good through high school for two hour flights.  Now one as an adult is all that we see back there.

[KSMooniac]

Any nice plane you buy right now will be at the top of the market...they've all gone up, even nice twins that were clobbered 8-10 years ago. A 120k J + 50k of panel upgrades won't get you into an A36 with an upgraded panel unless the engine is very high time in this market. Nice A36's seem to be 200+ in my very casual observation.

A J can be a forever plane for many folks. It might be mine at 12.5 years ago far. I happily flew it through the last recession and kept improving it. It still meets my needs. I believe Mooneys lost less value than many other planes during the recession due to their low operating costs versus speed/utility so keep that in mind. If you sink 50 AMU into a 120k J today you'll be upside down for certain. If you flew it for 10 years and got the increased utility/enjoyment/satisfaction out of it, then I'd say you would not be upside down at that point. You'll never get every penny back out of any of plane unless you get a good one for free and start from there...but you might get every dollar's worth of enjoyment from owning a good one, or more. And every month you waffle is a month less of potential enjoyment.

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[chriman17]

The wife and I don't yet have kids, however we are still at an age where we like to spend a lot of time doing things with our friends and would like to occasionally bring them along in the plane. Beyond that or maybe the comfort of sitting up higher in the beech, the J would mostly likely serve our needs perfectly. My biggest concern is buying the J, spending the money to put the panel in and then not be able to bring our friends along. I'd hate to take a big loss to make a switch. 

[chriman17]

27 minutes ago, RogueOne said:

Somebody just bought that J...

Reaction is

A. Remorse

B. Relief

 

The 205 sold?

[carusoam]

Sense the remorse?

-a-

[chriman17]

Just now, carusoam said:

Sense the remorse?

-a-

Nah, I don't get emotional. If it sold I'll just move on and continue looking until I find one. 

[KSMooniac]

To me the obvious answer is buy the J and don't go nuts on the panel...just learn to fly it and use it. A panel full of screens won't increase utility much aside from WAAS approaches if there isn't a W navigator already there. Take your friends up. During training you should put people in the back and see how different it feels and performs! If you sold it in a year or two you might not lose anything aside from the transaction costs.

30 lbs ago I could take two adult couples 500 NM (IFR even) with weekend bags if we packed carefully. A J with good useful load works very well for that mission while some Bonanzas cannot due to CG issues. You'll have to evaluate each individual airplane against that mission as they're all different in terms of empty weight and CG.

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[carusoam]

10 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

Nah, I don't get emotional. If it sold I'll just move on and continue looking until I find one. 

What Rogue was relaying was a measurement about how you feel about the plane...

You have gone through all the measurements...

Its terribly expensive...

You are on the fence...

 

The second somebody buys the plane from underneath you... 

You realize how important all your work was, that the plane met your expectations and the price was right in line...

Unfortunately, you are a day late... but not a dollar short....

 

No... buying an expensive object like a plane... is not very emotional... same as a house... or an industrial machine...

Fortunately flying isn’t very emotional either...

 

lets talk fun stuff...

 

you are approaching the same challenge as every new owner does...

You seem to be coming at it using a different angle than the oft discuss MS way...

Have you defined what 80% of your flights are going to be?  Aka your mission...

what are the other 20% flights like?

You have no backseaters that share your last name... 

You have budgeted 120amu for your first plane?

Best regards,

-a-

[chriman17]

3 minutes ago, KSMooniac said:

To me the obvious answer is buy the J and don't go nuts on the panel...just learn to fly it and use it. A panel full of screens won't increase utility much aside from WAAS approaches if there isn't a W navigator already there. Take your friends up. During training you should put people in the back and see how different it feels and performs! If you sold it in a year or two you might not lose anything aside from the transaction costs.

30 lbs ago I could take two adult couples 500 NM (IFR even) with weekend bags if we packed carefully. A J with good useful load works very well for that mission while some Bonanzas cannot due to CG issues. You'll have to evaluate each individual airplane against that mission as they're all different in terms of empty weight and CG.

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk
 

I would agree 100% with you, but the 205 was completely original and would have needed a lot of panel work. I think if you were to do panel work with a J, that would have been a perfect platform to do it with. I think at minimum it would have needed ADS-B, GPS/NAV/WAAS. 

[MIm20c]

8 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

The 205 sold?

That plane was put on the market 15 days ago. Not sure if it’s currently sold but IMO it was a solid value. There is real value buying a newer aircraft. Look at the prices 90’s vintage a36...even with the big hit to UL they still command a premium. 

There are a ton of 60’s and 70’s vintage aircraft. Not many mid bodies were made after ‘88 and they will never be produced again. 

[chriman17]

1 minute ago, carusoam said:

The second somebody buys the plane from underneath you... 

You realize how important all your work was, that the plane met your expectations and the price was right in line...

Unfortunately, you are a day late... but not a dollar short....

It just recently happened with an F33A, it was the first one I ever laid eyes on and the only thing I new about the brand was what I read the night before. The price was perfect, the aircraft near was perfect, but my lack of knowledge made it not so perfect. It wasn't until after I lost the deal and a little bit more education did I realize I screwed up. Unfortunately like cars, these things aren't so readily available. 

I just remember as a kid buying my two seater sports cars and having to stuff friends in the trunk or having to ride them in the center. 80% of the time the car was perfect, but the other 20% made the car a deal breaker. I eventually switched to a 4 door and never looked back. 

[carusoam]

What keeps you from buying a J and flying it for a few years... it has twice the number of seats than you need.

Is having children part of the equation? Have you seen the cost of day care?  

Wait til you get to see the cost of college 20years from now... 

 

Back on target...

The M20E is really sensible for somebody that can’t define the mission with any accuracy or detail...

Many M20Es are used for young families and post retirement pilots...

For the 20% flights... is this where you want to take friends with you?

there are a lot of friends that fit in the back of the M20E... See Bob’s Pics..

 

Work on defining your mission....

If you have done this already... can you share it?

Expect it can take many people a year to define their mission, find a plane, buy it, get trained in it, and take it home...

My avatar pic was taken that day...

Best regards,

-a-