Hard to tell, but I am betting we are close. What complicates this is the major metro areas, which are just so dense that social distancing is difficult and the amount of movement (goods, services) is huge just to maintain a minimum living standard, not to mention the burden on the healthcare system.
This is why the lockdowns need to be localized and the more locked down an area is, the more restrictive travel in/out needs to be.
Also, release of the lockdowns needs to be controlled carefully. Once you tell a city that the lockdown is over people will pour out of homes like crazy after being cooped up, and that will just start everything all over again.