jgarrison

Thanks. Good info.

I understand regulators and the paper trail. But even if the lender would make Bluebook or VREF appraisals that included the actual appraisal points instead of just checking the boxes... Perhaps there is a lender out there who can comprehend that it is impossible to value a plane based on the guides and would accept some data points from real world. That is the guy I am looking for.

I have probably referred / financed 30-40 planes with this guy. I used him in the past because of his rates and his underwriting ease. Then he got burned by some broker who sold a plane that didn't exist (or at least the plane wasn't what was financed). His underwriting and documentation has become unwieldy. I have mostly stopped referring him a lot because of the difficulty of process now. I screwed up on this one and referred him. I won't make the mistake again. But I do need to cultivate a new relationship and have a go to. Thanks for the words.

Even if the lenders would apply value properly to VREF and BB, I would be happy. As I mentioned, the two appraisals I ran through BB and VREF, when ALL the assets of the plane were considered would have averaged out to a price higher than we would have likely contracted for. Here is a question. You are a buyer. Two identical planes are on the market. One has a Garmin 430W in it. One does not have a GPS, just a King Nav/Com for the #1. Let's call it a pre-201 because of value considerations (it is easier to value the real difference of a 430W in a 1965 M20C than a 1999 M20M Bravo). What value do you give the one with the 430W? Even Better question. Same plane. One has an STEC-50 or STEC-30 autopilot. What is the value of the one over the other?

Excellent Post!! This one I need to cogitate on for a while. Thanks, Anthony

You just touched on another nerve of mine... Appraisals. I get appraisals on my desk every once in a while. An owner will have an appraisal performed by some 'certified' aircraft appraiser in the past. They decide they want to sell the plane so they send me that appraisal to use for valuing the plane. And they are always, always way off the actual market. The presentation is awesome. The bottom line is terrible. And almost always on the high side. And the reason is, same as we have discussed previous here - there is no meaningful database of actual sales with which to draw from. A real estate appraiser has actual sales data to compare to. A car appraiser has a vast database of sales. The aircraft appraiser has limited data and is using some combination of a scan of the market (which can be way off if he doesn't know the make/model intimately) and some preset value bases that he pulls out of a guide (same problem as the big guides, where is the data coming from). I would love for banks to order full appraisals. Based on past appraisals, that would mean a sale due to the inflated values that come from the professional appraisers. I have and still do value assessments for individuals, insurance companies, lawyers, etc... But I make it 100% clear that what I am giving them is an assessment of value based on my position in the market and recent sales that I have either done or that I know of. There is no such thing as a true appraisal of an aircraft.

Excellent, Excellent Idea... Thanks, Bob.

Thanks for the kind words. I like your ideas. I can see some problems with the specific valuation method. Primarily, that I will have to stop and plug in specs on every plane that requests and if I am flying or not available and cant respond in a timely manner, that plane could very well be sold to another party while my customer is waiting for the evaluation. I definitely think it would be better to provide a value guide to a person and then let them plug the numbers in themselves.

I hear ya... But you are looking at extremes... A better way to look at it would be to compare a 1976 M20F and a 1977 M20J. In Bluebook terms, there is a $12,500 difference between those to models. In theory, you could do some things to make the F nearly equal to the J in speed (Windshield, Cowling). But in the end, the F is still an F and the J is still a J. If you accept that there are year model differences, then give the 77 J $3,000 over 76 F just on year difference alone. That means there is a $9,500 difference strictly due to the model designation. Figure $4,000 value added for a 201 WS and 201 Cowling on the F and the difference in value, all things being equal otherwise, would be $5,500. That would be your true difference between J and a well modified F. $9,500 would be the difference for J vs. Stock F. There is nothing that you can ever do to not tie the '76F to the executive line that started in '67. So it will always be considered an 'older' model or as we in the Mooney world put it 'Pre-201'. For buyers, this is the kind of information that helps them make informed decisions.

Hmmm. Very good points, all. This post gets my head twirling with ideas...

That's where the idea comes in that I may want to figure out how to monetize the guide. Coy did it with his buyer's guide. I tend to be a more 'behind the scenes' kind of personality, if you know what I mean. I have no problem doing the work, but if I am going to work to keep up with market and options, I either need to know that I will get some immediate return (that's money) or in future return (perhaps that is an increase in the number of planes sold - although I'm getting old and slowing down - not sure I want THAT much extra work). Not greedy. Just want to assess the investment/return.

I certainly appreciate your words. I have briefly been in the used auto business, very briefly. While I won't dispute anything you wrote, there are a few differences to point out. You brought up the biggest. Depth of market. Nothing compares to a data set in the thousands, where in the M20F line, you have have 20-30 sales in a year. There is also, to a certain extent, a homogeneity of market in the car biz. Without major changes in a model, there are subtle differences between two different 2009 Tahoes or a 2012 and 2009 Tahoe. And going along with that, the vast majority of the wholesale auction market is made up of cars that were produced in the last 15 years, where there is a fairly linear progression from new to 'off the lot' depreciation to year model depreciation going backward. Whether KBB sets the value or the dealers set the value, there is some required devaluation between buying new and buying used, and with the depth of the market, it is pretty easy for both the dealer and I as an individual to determine what value there is in relation to new. That's why it is easier to appraise Acclaims than it is to appraise Executives. It is easy to compare the Acclaim market from year to year. Variances are pretty much defined by year model, times, TKS, WAAS and which autopilot. And then, the market only exists of 10-20 sellers and fewer than that on the buy side. That is not the case with anything older than about 20 years. Variances between planes are vast and the market is larger and the variance in history is dramatic. One thing I won't dispute is that I am not the lender, so yes, my opinions may be moot. I think ultimately, my goal in taking on a task like this is that I would eventually influence the guides to get their crap together and in turn the lenders, so they would understand the value. If there is not a box to put a check mark in, most lenders don't have a clue. As I said originally, the Pre-201 appraisal points in both books were influence by me back in the early '00's. I explained to them that they were missing some extremely valid appraisal points like the 201 windsheild and 201 instrument panel upgrade. I'm not going to send them my large list of appraisal points this time. But hopefully the guides and lenders someday come to an understanding of actual market. Thank you for the input. Very well stated.

Thanks Don....

Good point on the low flight hours. I have been preaching that to sellers for a while. I never quantified it when doing the MAPA bit. I will need to remember that if this gets any traction. Thanks...

Mooney Friends.... There is a wall of text below, so if you want to skip the reading and get the TLDR - scroll to the bottom. I am liable to open a can of worms with this post. But I have sat on my hands for way too long on this. In the end, I am going to ask for some advice. Some of you longer term Mooney owners know that for about 10 years or so, I wrote a column in MAPA monthly that addressed the values of Mooneys. I took over the article after acquiring my company from Ken Shoup. Ken wrote the same article for the 8 or so years preceding my ownership. So for about 18 years, there was some value advice that was available to buyers and sellers that either Ken or I wrote. I stopped writing the column not so much because I didn't want to write it, but it was generally a task that took a fair amount of time to compile and edit and frankly, I had too many things on my plate with not only this business but another one that I owned. Over time, I slowly put the task aside and would get to an article when I felt I had put it off long enough. Eventually I quit writing it altogether. Those that have read my writing know that I am a critic of the value guides: Aircraft BlueBook and VREF. For years, my contention has been that it is tail wagging the dog - that the guides publish values for planes/equipment and the market and finance companies then use these values to put prices on planes. However, where they get these values is anyone's guess. They will tell you that they get the values from the market, via research by their staff and through dealer contributions. So in their words, they are just reporting recent history. I have spoken with a few dealers in the past who have told me they have submitted data on sales, but the fact is that 95%+ (and it may be closer to 100%) of sales go unreported. And even if they do get reported, the intricacies of the valuation of how they arrived at the selling price cannot be accurately transmitted to BB or VREF. You can point your finger at me for not reporting, but the fact is, there is too much that goes into value and sales price of any given plane that is not easily reported to the guides whereby they can turn the data into meaningful real world use. There are literally thousands of Make/Model/Year combinations across general aviation that are covered by the guides and then there are millions of combinations of Airframe Time / Engine Time / Cosmetics / Installed Equipment additions and subtractions that affect value. In the 'good old days', the homogeneity of the market was such that it was pretty easy to figure out value. You had just a few things to consider like does the plane have a second Nav/Com (which believe it or not is still one of the value additions for the early Mooney models in BB - how many pre-201's DON'T have a second radio now?). So how do the guides come up with their values? Again, they will tell you it is based on recent sales. I will tell you something different. There is no way (no ACTUAL WAY) that they are reporting real sales. And in fact they are just putting numbers on pages in a way that makes sense. Some numbers are based on a linear fashion (a 1966 model is worth more than a 1965 model, right?). Some are for additions and subtractions to value that often make no current (meaning 2018) sense (DME's and Radar Altimeters are still getting value on the M20J line). The result is that sometimes the bottom line appraisal is in the favor of a buyer (guide value comes in under true market value - so he has ammunition to press for a price reduction), sometimes in favor of the seller (hey the book supports the price - you just gotta get up to my price) but almost universally, it is is not a reflection of actual market. Sometimes, it is even the lender is the one who gets taken to the bank (VREF gives $26,000+ for an M20C/E/F if it has a Lopresti Cowling on it - think the lender might overvalue his collateral in that case?). The guides are just flat wrong on a lot of things. Not only within a Make/Model, but across Makes/Models (some things don't add the same value to a 172 that they do to an Ovation). There are flaws throughout the books. The most frustrating thing for me and to a certain extent to my potential customers is that there are times when a lender will under-appraise an aircraft and as a result the plane cannot be sold due to a requirement of the buyer to up his down payment to cover the difference. This has happened two times to me in the last week. And I have finally had to say something about it. Some may say 'Well, Jimmy... You must have your price too high on the plane - so don't complain'. My answer - 'If I have over priced it, then buyers would not call. Why would someone call on a plane that is overpriced? I have overpriced planes in the past and I know what it is like for the phone to not ring. The internet is full of planes and buyers can compare planes, so if I was not within reason of the market, they would simply go to the next plane and contact that seller. But if I am getting multiple calls or emails on a plane every week, then I am quite sure I am not overpriced.' That is the case with the two planes I am referencing that we couldn't get financed. On one, I argued value in a heated exchange with the lender and he told me he could only go by the book. Since I did not have a BB or VREF appraisals in front of me, I went to my desk and actually performed both BB and VREF appraisals on the plane and then submitted them to the lender. One came out just under my price, one came our just over my price. He told me that he did not get the same bottom line. This was mostly due to the 'non-listed additions to value' and to a lesser extent his small value on a Garmin GNS-430W (he says that the GTN-650 is the new radio, so 430W doesn't have much value!!). The plane had tons of aftermarket upgrades that are not listed in the 'Additions' section of the guides, upgrades that are actual value/decision influencers for Mooney buyers. He would not listen. He valued the plane at 85% of reasonable marketable value. The sale dies because of a bogus collateral assessment where he decides he doesn't care what the market (and his client) wants and that all those expensive goodies on the plane don't really make a difference in value and 'oh by the way, a 430W, no one wants those any more'. So here I sit trying to decide if there is anything I can do about it. I have influenced both BB and VREF in the past. They added a lot of items to the pre-201 section based on my explanation of value items to them ('201 Windsheild - what's that?'). But I am not planning on going to the publications and doing their work for them. What I am debating though is trying to figure out if there is a way to have a real reporting of the market and trying to decide whether that that work and 1) will it be used appropriately by buyers / sellers / lenders, 2) Is this something that a dealer/broker should actually be involving himself in and can it properly be done without bias and 3) if it is something I want to tackle. We should finish up this year with about 50 Mooney sales. I have plenty to keep me busy. And even with the inaccuracies of the value guides, we still manage to sell a lot of planes at true market values (yes, I do watch the Mooney market closely and know where my planes fit in). But my 20 years of frustration with the 'experts' has boiled over. So here are my questions to you to anyone that wants to comment: 1) Is producing a value guide specifically Mooney related something that would be used by the market, including lenders? 2) Is such a guide something that I specifically should involve myself in, given that I am very active in the Mooney resale market? 3) If 1 and 2 above are a yes, then should this be something that I can monetize... i.e. should I expect to be paid for the work I do and if not, what are my incentives to take on an ongoing task such as this? 4) If all of the above are yes, then what next? How do I get from concept to product? I see the posts here all the time referencing my name and suggesting someone call me for advice, normally on values. I appreciate those recommendations. I know that I have my detractors out there, so I am not going to promote myself as 'the guy' on values or in any other fashion as the only Mooney resource. But I think I have some value to add to the subject of Mooney values. All American passed 1000 Mooney sales a few years ago. I have been involved in something like 750 since I started. I have no problem talking to people and giving general advice. Most of the advice I give can be done using the internet, keeping a record of aircraft that go on the market and keeping up with asking prices and equipment. That does work to a certain extent and is the process I use sometime when shopping for planes. On some of the more popular models, it is sometimes hard to get all of the data as they are often on the market and gone so quickly that you miss them. And some planes never hit the market. I have sold eight aircraft this year without advertising them. So all of the data may not be available to everyone. However, there are some basics that can be factored into a price that the guide have no clue about . A good example is that a 1982 M20J or M20K has a higher delta in price versus a 1981 model than does the 1981 vs. 1980 models. Why? Removable/Split/Reclining back seats. That's a reality and one that the guides couldn't tell you about if their lives depended on it. The back seats are a huge difference for a lot of buyers. What does BlueBook say about the M20J in these year models? 1980 - $71,000 base price. 1981 - $75,000 base price. 1982 - $77,000 base price. $4,000 between the 80 and 81. $2,000 between the 81 and 82. I won't comment on the base prices (other than they are low). But I will comment on the differences.... WRONG... COMPLETELY WRONG. I don't want to go out and promote myself with a 'Guide to Buying a Mooney'. That's been done. I'm sure some of you still have your copy. And I am not trying to start a new business and get rich (hey, this is aviation after all). But what I do want to consider is coming up with something that reflects value for Mooney buyers, sellers and lenders that is real and reflects actual real life data. A dynamic resource that reflects changing technology - which both books are sorely deficient at. And one that can be taken seriously, even to the extent that lenders will have it at their disposal. So that's it. I am sure that we can have some quality discourse here. If you prefer, you can email me at jimmy@allamericanaircraft.com and I will be happy to talk with you privately there. As for the owners / mods here, apologies in advance for violating the advertising ban (although I am not selling anything yet). Thanks for your time. JG TLDR (Too Long Didn't Read) - Bluebook and VREF are very poor resources for actually determining true market value for most aircraft makes/models. I am trying to determine if there is an actual need for a value assessment guide that is Mooney specific and if so, I am looking for some recommendations on how to accomplish the production of such a guide.

Anyone have a contact number for Rico that they can email me? jimmy at allamericanaircraft.com Thanks...

I always start here (shout out to these guys - who make their living helping people with sales tax issues): https://www.advocatetax.com/USMap.html Once I determine what the general rules are for the state, then I dig in and find out what the specific rules are. There are some states that are hard core (CA, FL, TN are the worst in my experience). Believe it or not, NY just stopped collecting sales tax on aircraft - go figure.

Selling parts for a customer who upgraded his interior. Plexiglass sunvisor with the M20M Power Schedule printed on it. PN 130355-501. Does not include the mounting assembly. Whole Assembly is advertised elsewhere for +/- $250. Just the plexiglass??? Not sure. Cabin Door Windlace 130248-501. Color is Cornsilk (very light, almost off white). Should work on any Mooney. Advertised elsewhere for $285. Baggage Door Windlace 130248-503. Same color. Advertised for $89. Again, should be universal for a Mooney. Fresh Air Converter Assy (Fresh Air Cable). PN 640157-9501. No clue on value. I will look it up when I get an offer. Would think this works on M/R/TN models after 1994 (i.e. new style interior) but it may work on the older frames also. Make some offers and let me take them to the owner. Jimmy

Just to be absolutely clear, the oil analysis states that the metal in the oil is what would be found in a sample with 35 hours on it (i.e. a normal amount of metal for a 35 hour oil sample). Since the oil had 23 hours on it, the analysis states that it is a little higher than expected. It also states that if the engine has not been flown much lately (which is hasn't), that could be what is causing the elevated levels. The analysis firm in no way states that there is 'metal in the oil'. They advise the submitter to check the filter and if no metal in the filter, then just monitor going forward. I have a responsibility to the owner of the aircraft to sell the plane for him and I have no reason to believe that the engine is in any way unfit for flight. I have flown the plane several times and would not subject myself or anyone else to fly in a plane that was not safe. The engine is high time. It would be expected to need an overhaul at some time in the not-too-distant future. And that is the reason it is priced in the 80's and not in the mid to high 110's, as a mid 80's M20J would be priced with a low time engine. Jimmy

Need a tube replaced on an Ovation engine mount due to a gouge. Can't be welded on the plane, needs to be cut out and replaced. Has anyone had similar work done and can provide recommendation on a shop as well as what I can expect on cost? Thanks, Jimmy

The logs do possibly exist. I have talked to the previous owner and he has a box of stuff that goes with the plane and he thinks the other logs are in the plane. He said he would send them to me and he has my FEDEX number to forward them on to me. The logs that are missing are between years, like 2003-2012. Original and current airframe are here. Engine since Triad overhaul in 2003 are here. No prop, at least I don't think there is a prop.

I appreciate all of the feedback. Thank you to those who are defending me to others questioning my motives. As a dealer/broker, I get that occasionally. That's the primary reason I don't post here often. I'm not thin skinned. I just don't need the aggravation of being thought of as less of a Mooney lover because I happen to make my living selling them. First, I work for the owner and my desire is to put the most money in his/her/their pocket. That is the case with every airplane. Secondly, I work for a percentage commission, so I have zero incentive to sell this plane for a lesser amount than is possible. So here is more of the story. Then maybe my reasoning may come to better light and the decision to proceed will be justified... The scenario presented above is not all together out of line with reality with the exception of the corrosion on the spar. There is none. But a lot of the other worst case items are there. These are these value determinants and items needing repair (partial list). *Damage History: Not one gear up, but three. Plus an off runway excursion that caused a little damage. *Useful Load: 752#. Actual Number. Just weighed. That puts it about the worst I have seen (maybe THE worst). If you have sold as many Mooneys as I have, you will know that one of the first three questions a buyer has when he or she calls on a plane is 'what is the Useful Load'. The other two are Damage History and Leaking Fuel Tanks. So we got two out of three disqualifiers for most people right up front. *#1 Com inop (it the CNX-80 that is no longer supported by Garmin) *Transponder inop (it is the Apollo remote transponder that I don't believe is supported any more). *HSI inop *Attitude Indicator inop *Paint Poor. A lot of pealing paint *Interior Poor *Fuel Gauges Intermittent That is just a partial list. For those questioning how a plane that just went through annual is a candidate for parting out.... To Don's credit, he did not fly the plane because it did not have insurance on it. It was picked up from a broker in FLA and brought to him to annual. Don told me that the pilot did not mention any of the issues on the plane. I put the aircraft on my policy and flew it home after it was completed and that was when all of the gremlins from a good flight reared their ugly heads. I have a squawk list about 20 items long, most all of which would only be discovered on a flight. I believe 100% that the aircraft is airworthy (in the sense that is is mechanically sound and will fly from point A to point B safely). I flew it and as I mentioned in original post, the engine ran like a top and was/is actually the best part of the plane. But selling a plane like this is a major challenge. I am NOT going to sugarcoat a plane to try to get more than it is worth. In the past, when I ran across a plane like this one, I called another broker that I knew and told him to come pick up the plane and sell it for the owner (after I told the owner that I did not want to market the plane and that the other broker would be beneficial to them). I don't want to lie or embellish a plane to a prospect just to get a sale and with the disclosures I would have to put into this one, I am pretty sure the list of real buyers will be zero to just a few (maybe a guy who is on a C/E/F budget and will overlook the issues to get into a newer / faster plane). I have been doing this a long time, almost 25 years. I believe this plane will sell for something in the 90-100 range AFTER it is all fixed up. If it weren't for the damage and iffy logs, that number would be 110-120. If it weren't for the Useful Load, that number would be 125-135. All the numbers includes paint and interior plus fixing all the broken stuff or replacing it with more modern stuff. We are probably talking about 4-8 months of work and a lot of out of pocket expense to get to that point and in the end, you have a plane that is all prettied up with nice equipment but a 4 time damage / pathetic U/L and the hoped for selling price may be optimistic. I think the engine/prop/cowling has value and is about half of the total 'as is' retail value of the plane (maybe more than half based on the offer I got from a guy that contacted me from this posting). I believe that the control surfaces, seats, autopilot components, speed brakes and what can be scraped up from the panel will get it to full retail equivalent - something around $50K. That will leave the wing and the tail section that are basically going to put it over the top from a value standpoint. And yes, all of this may take a long time to sell. But I was asked to do a job and I'm going to do it to the best of my ability and with the owner's best interest at hand and if I have to work a little longer and harder to get it done, that's what I will do. So, now, if anyone would like an 'airworthy' 262 conversion at something north of $60K (which is what I am shooting for on the part out - looks like I have about $40K already in line), then give me a call before we start pulling parts. Thanks for all the comments. I will keep up with this thread and add info if needed. Jimmy

I can put this in the aircraft for sale section, but thought I might get more response here. I am looking for advice first, then will proceed to marketing if it makes sense. I have been employed by a bank to sell a foreclosure on a M20K '262' conversion. That is the conversion that was done years ago by ModWorks that installed an MB engine, 252 prop and 252 OEM cowling on a Mooney 231 in place of the GB or LB engine. For reasons that are too numerous to list, I believe and have advised the owners that the plane is probably better suited to be sold in pieces than as a complete aircraft. I have started compiling ideas for the parts and components and likely values, but a lot of the decision is going to depend on the value of the front end. I am putting this out here for ideas on value and the best way to start this process, since this will be a first for me. The basics: The engine is logged as having just over 250 hours SMOH. The last SMOH is very sparse in writeup and was done after a gear up landing and was signed off by an A/P. There are no tags that accompany the writeup. This was in 2009. The log entry records all of the normal overhaul items (Case, Crank, Rods, Gears, New Cam, OH Cylinders) but does not mention anything about accessories. Prior to the last SMOH, there was an overhaul by Triad in 2003. That was about 810 hours ago. I am comfortable with their name. The logs I have on the engine start with this overhaul. Annual was completed on the plane in March of this year by Don Maxwell Aviation. Compressions were 72 / 70 / 70 / 71 / 74 / 72. There was no oil burn on the 1:45 flight that I made in the plane. I flew the plane from Maxwell's to our place. The engine ran perfectly. No issues and temps were good. Prop is a 3-Blade Hartzell. No log book on it that I can find (we may come up with it, but no promises). It would have either been new or overhauled with new blades at 250 hours ago (when the gear up was repaired). The cowling is in good condition. No cracking or holes. The worst part is some wear on the upper cowling at the copilot side rear corner where it is worn a bit from mechanics setting it on the ground. I am still working on getting the missing logs on the plane. There is a box that exists with information on the plane and may have logs on the prop, engine prior to Triad overhaul and other pertinent info (like yellow tags or workorders). I may or may not ever get that box. So where do I go from here? I don't know if it is best to sell the front end from firewall forward as a unit or further break down the engine to maximize the client's value. You guys always have good ideas. Help me get creative. Thanks, Jimmy

Looking for all three, throttle, prop and mixture. In working order. If you removed a set for an upgrade of just have them lying around, let me know. Thanks, Jimmy Please email me directly. jimmy@allamericanaircraft.com

The 2900# Gross Weight Increase is available to add to the M20J back to serial number -2000 if I recall right. That would be on the first 205's