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Scott Dennstaedt, PhD

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Everything posted by Scott Dennstaedt, PhD

  1. It's hard to see from the picture exactly where and when this is. Are you using SiriusXM or FIS-B? It could be virga if the air was fairly dry below the cloud base. It could also be ground clutter or anomalous propagation from NEXRAD. Need more info from you in order to help identify what might be going on.
  2. That's correct...and if the code is designed properly, there are generally little issues and you get compatibility across the different platforms. For now, most browsers support PWAs, so it creates the look and feel of a native app without the costs involved.
  3. With my PWA, I don't need any native operations like some of the heavyweight EFBs use. In fact, many apps (probably a majority of them) that you download from the App Store are just regular web apps with a wrapper.
  4. Here's what I wrote up when I decided to launch my site as a PWA instead of a native app. You also have to deal with the orientations of smaller devices like an iPhone in both orientations. When you have a browser in landscape, the address bar takes up valuable space that you may want to utilize for other buttons/selections. https://www.avwxtraining.com/post/the-scoop-on-progressive-web-apps-pwas-ezwxbrief
  5. What complexity are you referring to? You simply install this as a PWA and you are done. It just adds an icon to your desktop or home screen and you can launch it just like any other native app. Again, how complex is that? It's actually quicker than searching and downloading from the App Store. And when there are updates, they become available immediately and there's no need to interact with Apple or Google to get those updates Again, I see that as "less" complex, not more.
  6. Read up about PWAs. You can use the site in the browser, but why not take advantage of the PWA so that the space on the device can be optimized?
  7. The AWC doesn't have a native app that you will find in the Google Play or App Store. It's a progressive web app like I use for my site. PWA or not, their site is horrible on portable devices like the iPhone. It crashes way too often and just is hard to navigate.
  8. The prog charts are expected to remain. However, even if they do, the WPC will have them since they are the organization that generates them. I import the WPC progs into my app since they are updated more frequently then the ones at the AWC.
  9. That’s a progressive web app, like I have with EZWxBrief, not a native app.
  10. With this new site, the AWC will be eliminating (or has eliminated) much of the "static" imagery. Right now, the static imagery being kept for a while is: G-AIRMETs SIGMETs WPC Prog charts SigWx charts Icing (CIP/FIP) Turbulence (GTG) GFA static images (under /gfa/plot on the legacy website) B&W Fax charts Static images going away soon/now: Lowest freezing level from the RAP TCF, eTCF, ECFP RAP/NAM Wind/Temp graphics TAF plots PIREP plots METAR plots Satellite regional plots Vis/Fog satellite images Radar regional plots RCM radar plots Of course, some of this imagery is encapsulated in the interactive map...which on my iPhone crashes every time when doing a pinch to zoom out gesture. The graphics section is really hard to use. Takes many clicks to get to the images you want to see without a lot of scrolling up/down...pretty much unusable. I will keep as many of the static images available on my site until they turn off the production of those...then I will build my own.
  11. Ah, okay. You must be talking about some other app. I searched on the Google Play and App Store and did not see any downloadable apps for aviationweather.gov. Nothing that I can find on aviationweather.gov either to indicate there was a *native* app. A progressive web app (PWA) for sure, but not a native app for aviationweather.gov. Edit: Just checked with the folks at the AWC and there's no native app on the Google Play or App Store.
  12. When you say downloaded the app, do you mean from the App Store or Google Play store?
  13. Like to know what you think. I am having a difficult time using it on my iPhone...it crashes most of the time when I zoom out on the map. Both Chrome and Safari. The static imagery page is almost unusable. You have to constantly scroll up/down to choose and view the image you want to view.
  14. Not a fan of his videos. He posted his probable cause to a fatal accident of a Baron near St Louis in January 2022 that was discussed in this thread. He was very adamant that this was an icing accident even though the freezing level was comfortably 4,000 ft above the altitude where the aircraft first departed controlled flight. Gryder even suggested in the initial video (that I believe was quickly deleted/replaced) that it was due to freezing drizzle when no freezing drizzle was reported anywhere near the area. He jumps to conclusions and fails to consider facts that are indisputable. Here's my analysis of the weather for this accident. https://www.avwxtraining.com/post/initial-weather-analysis-of-a-fatal-baron-accident-west-of-st-louis It's funny when you get his lackeys that like to pile on without carefully considering the facts...here's one comment from one of them... "Super detailed examination of weather data from a station 100 miles away. Maybe the next time a plane takes off into freezing drizzle, the geniuses at avwxtraining can put together another in depth analysis of why that plane should not have encountered icing...maybe they can make a presentation at the funeral. I'm not trying to be rude, or discount the data, but I just don't see how anyone can say it's too early to speculate a cause, and in the same breath rule out icing....when all the evidence (ring camera video, crash site, special weather report) all indicate icing." Geesh. They like to attack the person since attacking the indisputable data isn't an option. The accident had nothing to do with icing as I had concluded a few days after the accident. When you Google the guy, it's amazing how many times he's been sued or in trouble with the law. One thing is for sure, he's got a loyal following.
  15. There are a few issues. First, both SiriusXM and FIS-B are highly bandwidth challenged. Everything needs to be scheduled. So adding anything to the pipe is not easy. Second, you wouldn't want an extrapolation given that this doesn't properly deal with evolution (or dissipation) which is especially important during the initial stages of storm cell development. You would want something predictive. Currently FIS-B uses a 1 or 2 hr forecast for the cloud tops from the HRRR model, so it wouldn't be too difficult to add a forecast radar product. This model is updated hourly and has a 15 minute time step forecast resolution which would be useful...and something I've asked SiriusXM to add for over 5 years. Even so, these models usually take a couple of forecast hours to really "spin up" and develop a complete picture...so it really wouldn't be what you are looking for. At one point there was a product that was developed by the NWS called the National Convective Weather Forecast that would have been useful. NCWF was terminated in 2018 for a variety of reasons. But the best possibility is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) and Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) product. Here's the current initialization of the product: And the forecast in 30 minutes... Then 30 minutes after that... And 30 minutes after that... And then 4 hours after the initial time... This would be much better suited as it provides a more reasonable prediction of what is likely to happen over the next couple of hours...thinking of this as a strategic product.
  16. If you are interested in an overview of the weather for those flying to AirVenture this year, please check out my AirVenture Daily Weather Roundup. I will be broadcasting these live starting on Tuesday, July 18th at 8 a.m. EDT on my YouTube channel @ezwxbrief - or you can view the recorded version at a later time. The broadcast will be daily through Friday, July 21st at the same time. I'll have a booth in Hangar C during the event (EZWxBrief) if you want to stop by and say hello or attend one or more of the eight presentations I'll be doing throughout the week.
  17. TAFs are routinely issued four times a day, but for airports in high-impact airspace such as NY, Atl and Chicago, they will issue TAFs more frequently (e.g., every two or three hours). The TAFs are issued by meteorologists at your local weather forecast offices. Those forecasters have a program called AvnFPS which is a "monitoring" system which I discuss in this post. Below is one from the Greenville-Spartanburg WFO when I was there visiting a few years back. This allows them to constantly monitor the TAFs and amend accordingly when specific criteria are met. When I worked for FF, I helped them add in the LAMP/GFS MOS. They let me go about 2.5 years later. I don't use FF now, but I understand they changed from using the LAMP/GFS MOS I recommended to using NBM which in my professional opinion was a huge mistake. LAMP has been around for a couple of decades and NBM is relatively new and still has some growing pains. LAMP is a forecast that goes out to 38 hours for ceiling and vis and it is updated hourly. Essentially it uses the GFS MOS forecast that is issued every 6 hours and is designed to ingest each hour new observational data. That means if the weather is deviating from the original GFS forecast, LAMP will adjust it accordingly and issue an updated forecast. It also looks at the latest radar and lightning data and also melds in the HRRR model forecasts. Of course, all of this is specific to the airport. There are about 700 airports with a TAF and about 2200 airports with a LAMP forecast.
  18. What is your source of MOS? In other words, where do you get your MOS forecast? Understand that TAFs are amended as conditions change since they are monitored in real-time by forecasters.
  19. I guess I don't understand the statement if the "field is VFR" and "last 15 minutes." You can travel a good distance in 15 minutes. Are you just looking for the ceiling/vis at the destination airport or along the last 30 miles or so of the route that includes the destination? MOS uses geoclimatic data for the airport which means it uses a historical record of observations along with a model forecast. Specific equations are written for each airport for ceiling, vis, wind, temperature, etc. When I worked at the NWS many decades ago, I helped to develop the NGM MOS...which has since been retired. MOS has been around for over 50 years.
  20. Yes, my PhD dissertation was on how to quantify risk using personal weather minimums that include ceiling, visibility, thunderstorms, icing, turbulence and wind. And my progressive web app, EZWxBrief, was the result of that 3.5 years of research. The key is to not use data that is based strictly at airports such as MOS or TAFs. Those are not going to be relevant for a route. High resolution numerical weather forecasts are the best to use in this case.
  21. While it is a couple weeks off, the GFS model is showing a tropical system impacting the western Gulf coast around the 22nd to 23rd of June. This is a looooong ways off and the likelihood of this being correct or even in the ballpark is very low. But it's a reminder of the upcoming season for those that live and fly in the Gulf and Atlantic coastal regions. Hopefully, it'll suck up all of the smoke that has now caused the FAA to stop inbound flights to KLGA.
  22. Yes, I wasn't happy with the way WS was being developed and given that it wasn't scientifically valid and had other issues that I found to be dangerous, I developed my own progressive web app that uses your personal wx mins so you can quantify your risk for icing, turbulence, ceiling, vis, wind, thunderstorms...since we know that flying is all about identifying and quantifying risk...none of the heavyweight apps will do this automatically. Moreover, WS relies on a single model (GFS) using relative humidity which is a horrible and unscientific way to determine clouds. It also now uses the NBM for it's station-based forecasts - the NBM isn't ready for prime time as of yet in my opinion...the LAMP MOS is much, much better especially for ceiling, vis and wind so I don't know why he changed from LAMP to NBM. LAMP has been around for nearly two decades whereas NBM has just started to cut its teeth. Depending on the forecast element (e.g., ceiling, icing, etc.) I utilize a dozen or more models to make that forecast. Relying on a single model is not a good strategy in my opinion. And for the route, WS uses the "nearest" station which can be 20 or more miles away. My app uses 2.5 km resolution data which is much more accurate especially in mountainous terrain where stations are sparse and often local conditions are extremely important.
  23. That's right, if you "pop" my last name into the forum schedule that can be found online here you will see my topics.
  24. I will be doing three presentations on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  25. It's the middle of February at 4 a.m. with the winds out of the northeast and the surface temps are a chilly 39°F. What are the chances of being woken up by a raging thunderstorm with intense lightning and war zone-sounding thunder, intense rain and 40 knot wind gusts? Well, that happened to me last night just south of Charlotte. The real interesting thing about this convective event is that it erupted so fast in this area. Below is the lightning picture as of 0840Z. No strikes just south of Charlotte. Then, within 5 minutes at 0845Z, all of those white strikes just south of Charlotte appeared as this line of embedded convection erupted. This was a line of elevated thunderstorms that developed despite a very intense surface-based inversion as shown in the model analysis sounding below. The inversion was nearly a depth of 7,000 feet. However, the instability occurs aloft as cold, dense air is locked in at the surface due to what is referred to as a cold-air damming event. You can see in the sounding below that low-level winds are out of the northeast providing the cold and low-level moisture. However, the winds above the inversion shift around to the south which is a warm flow that rides UP and over the cold, dense air creating a dynamic lifting source for that air. You can see that the most unstable CAPE here is 440 J/kg. All of that vertical development is occurring above 10,000 feet creating elevated convection. The enhancement to the sound of the thunder is due to the surface-based inversion that ducts the sound and it reverberates across a much greater area for a longer period of time (think about the sound echoing in a canyon). Also, due to the stable conditions near the surface when air doesn't mix, thunder can be heard from a much greater distance.
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