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Scott Dennstaedt

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Everything posted by Scott Dennstaedt

  1. Dan, Good feedback. Even though I sell a weather book, this is just the foundation. Important, but there is a need to learn how to integrate all of this guidance so you understand how to characterize that big picture. I have been doing a 1-on-1 online training with pilots over the last 15 years for flights they are looking to take. This makes it real and likely one of the best ways to learn how each piece of guidance contributes to making a good decision. Given that each weather event is unique, it’s really hard to put this kind of training in a book. So seeing it all in action for a f
  2. Robert, I didn't cut the CAPE out of this chart. This is a radiosonde observation and they don't include CAPE on RAOBs. But this might help.
  3. Alex, About 25 workshops including a couple recorded webinars on the Skew-T.
  4. So it's -30°C at 15,000 feet over Boise, Idaho at the end of February. Any chance of icing at this altitude based on this Skew-T diagram?
  5. FWIW, I never use windy unless I am watching a possible landfalling hurricane. The interface is horrible and very hard to navigate and doesn't give me the aviation-specific information that I prefer to use.
  6. Notice that I did not say that experience isn't important. Actually what works the best is having a pilot to mentor with. I do that for dozens of pilots from a weather perspective. Scaring the hell out of yourself is a BAD approach to learning. In fact, it teaches you nothing. When I hear "older" pilots say things to "younger" pilots such as, "just get out there and fly in some real weather and you will figure it out" is when I turn away and shake my head. It has and will always be a recipe for disaster. In my 40+ years, I have heard it all and have talked to thousands of pilots abo
  7. Wish that was true, but sadly it isn't. In fact, it's one of those many myths. Experience means nothing unless you know what you are looking at. In fact the NTSB released a safety notice in October 2005 that states, "It appears that pilots generally require formal training to obtain weather knowledge and cannot be expected to acquire it on their own as they simply gain more flight experience." Can't underscore this enough. Mother Nature doesn't care how many hours are in your logbook.
  8. I'll be attending, Hangar C, Booth 92. I'll also be doing 4 presentations at the education forums (dates/times are TBD).
  9. I will be doing a free webinar for EAA coming up in May where I will present the top 10 weather questions pilots ask. I've been an instructor for over 20 years and I've heard dozens of the same questions over and over again...but I am curious...if you had one weather question (related to aviation) that's been bugging you, what would that question be? These need to be relevant to aviation safety in some way. For example, "I see these long dashed lines on the prog charts and wondering if I should be concerned about flying through that area?" Interested to hear your questions.
  10. Appears there was a warm front nearby the boot heal of Missouri. So, you likely crossed over from the warm sector to the cold sector along the route. Here's the freezing level chart showing a sharp gradient in central TN. Here's the RAOB for central Arkansas (black) and Nashville (magenta). Notice the temperature drop at 7K between the two.
  11. At what point in the route (some nearby airport/navaid) did you experience the temperature drop at 7K? Approximately what time was that (zulu)?
  12. Would need to know the specifics...date and time (zulu) this occurred and exactly where it was observed (nearest airport and the approximate route...maybe a flightaware track).
  13. Keep in mind that the freezing rain signature they show here only accounts for about 8% of the cases. It’s the exception, not the rule. While the signature they point out is dangerous for pilots, the nonclassical case is the one that tends to not be well understood by pilots. In fact, the entire temperature profile can be below freezing and still produce freezing rain or more likely freezing drizzle. Also what is said about sleet (below) is not entirely accurate. The snowflake only partially melts and retains a slushy core. The retained core is what allows the partially melted drop to ref
  14. What you say is correct, but not what makes this so concerning. Check out my post earlier in this thread for my analysis.
  15. Dan, If you are looking at the CIP/FIP icing severity charts (found on aviationweather.gov), the SLD isn't a calibrated probability and they will add the red-hatching on the chart even if it's as low as a 5% chance. When I looked at the actual probabilities, the percentages were very low in this region. I don't have any plans to start my in-person classes back up again. They are extremely challenging to market and most pilots really don't want to pay for weather training. Sad, but true. They will pay top dollar for an engine management course since there's an immediate payback ($$$
  16. In this case there was no SLD forecast, that why I posted this case. It didn’t have any SLD signature, but represented a significant threat.
  17. If you are the type of pilot that uses a Skew-T as it relates to airframe icing, here's one that you should keep in your mind to avoid. Not a good afternoon to be flying a Mooney in the SLC area.
  18. Skip, It's likely because it's an AWOS-3. They are a piece of crap compared to an ASOS. The ASOS has much higher standards and would never generate a dewpoint temperature warmer than the temperature. Here's a nearby obs from an ASOS. METAR KOMA 041452Z 00000KT 3SM BR FEW004 SCT120 BKN250 M02/M03 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP168 I3001 T10171028 53031= Chalk it up to fake news! Here's the algorithm used by the ASOS... The current 1-minute ambient temperature is also compared against the current 1-minute dew point temperature to ensure the dew point is not higher. If the dew p
  19. Yes, a cloud drop needs an ice nuclei to freeze. That's called heterogeneous nucleation. The nuclei needs to look remarkably similar to an ice crystal, that's why they are relatively rare compared to condensation nuclei. So ice crystals make the best ice nuclei, of course. You will get homogeneous freezing once the temps drop to below -40°C. But your airplane makes a great ice nuclei. Most non-convective clouds are glaciated at a temperature below -25°C.
  20. My advice for approaches or landings with ice accretion is to avoid anything that might change the angle of attack significantly. So, I avoid adding flaps and I avoid rapid airspeed changes...if you need to slow down, for example, pull back the throttle deliberately, but slowly. And if you start experiencing any sloppy feeling in the controls or feel any buffeting that is not characteristic of normal flight, then add power back.
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