Rush Hour Alternative Aircraft Type Poll #1

[Marauder]

Seth -- helicopters!

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[DaV8or]

Now multiply them and square the product for the roundtrip reliability.  Answer:  66%.

Is that good enough for people with money and important appointments?

 

I agree with all that you wrote. This is a tough sell IMO. I only take issue with your reliability formula. I'm certain a higher than 66% dispatch rate can be achieved.

[xftrplt]

DaV8or,

Is the issue with the formula or the numbers?

Those were only notional numbers. And, of course, it assumes wx, mx, and crew are independent. If they're not, it could be worse.

Insert numbers that you think are more appropriate, but even at 95% wx, 95% mx, and 95% crew, you still get only a 74% chance of completing the roundtrip.

(.95*.95*.95)^2 = .735

FWIW, according to avbuyer.com, individual aircraft availability is around 85%, and the major airlines are around 95% dispatch reliability (i.e., 90% for a round trip), and that's with spare aircraft/crews, turbine equipment, and long MEL's.

[Alan Fox]

The BN2 (islander) is going to be the most cost efficient , both in acquisition , and in maintenence , Even if the others are 60 + knots faster on a 80 mile trip the difference is nominal as the approach and climb out will eat up approx. 40% of the mission , The problem as I see it is the weather aspect , as far as I know there are no precision approaches , and because of the SFRA you will always be under radar control , I don't think it will be (reliable) enough to be Viable.....