According to Mike Busch last night (EAA WINGS seminar on annual inspections, focusing on a Lycoming O-320 that wasn't making minimum static RPM and had this exact issue), oil analysis won't catch the intake lobe wearing down like that: The pieces come off too quickly, and are too large to get absorbed into the oil. Any indication would be in the filter.
Anecdotally, that was my experience (IO-360-A1A). 3RM has been on oil analysis consistently since 2008, including right before I had a valve lift check that caught that intake lobes were worn too far. There was no indication of it in the trends. My iron (29) was slightly above universal averages (20), but no mention of that in the Blackstone write-up, for an oil change in March, 50 hours before the engine was yanked for overhaul, and with 43 hours since the last oil change (Blackstone did note in an earlier oil analysis that my 59‡ hour oil analysis showed 52, but also noted "universal averages are taken after ~30 hours of oil use [and considering] this interval was about twice as long as that, some extra iron (from steel) doesn't look troublesome as that metal tends to track with use." (They recommended "follow up in 40 hours for an update.")
‡ Was supposed to get an oil change before launching on a trip to St. Louis but my A&P was chasing other gremlins and didn't get to it. Was going to get it changed in St. Louis but the A&P I found there likewise fell down a different rabbit hole and ran out of time. :/