David_H

Sensata makes self-resetting fuses for hermetic compressors. I'm unsure how far they go down in size but I expect the costs are relatively low since they're mass-produced for a commodity-based market. They're also tested very rigorously for performance. The Klixon line comes to mind... but I don't know how far down the currents go in that line. They probably have another product line that would work better. ...Just something to think about.

Using a safety fuse would likely be the least expensive and most durable solution. Having an in-line fuse would help with approval... and makes a lot of sense.

I wonder if using some sort of pinion and slip-clutch arrangement would work? Of course that increases costs and reduces reliability.

Nice.

I want it to be clear that I'm not picking on this plane in particular. I didn't even know it had been sitting as long as it has been. There are others on the market similar to it (to an extent). As I see it... the plane has been for sale for a considerable amount of time. Regardless about what anyone on here says (me included)... time on the market says it doesn't appear to be priced correctly. I don't think TAP was the first place it went up for sale. There's usually a local selling process that takes place before a plane makes it there. At this point, a lot of no's have taken place. Are all the potential buyers that have come by wrong? The tanks being resealed recently is probably one of the most attractive things of the plane. However, it is a maintenance item and not an upgrade. I think it deserves considerable value consideration since we are talking about an aging fleet. However, buyers aren't going to pay for keeping the plane in an airworthy condition for past owners. The tanks were either in good shape when the owner purchased it or he bought at a discount. Also, avionics improvements made to a plane are made for the current owner... not the future one. They add value and should be considered. However, being able to recover full value from an avionics seems unlikely. If that were the case, everyone would snap up the old shotgun panels and build them up how they want them with no worry of purchase costs. The engine not being run... I didn't even realize that was the case on this one but it makes things even riskier. Lastly... it seems to be getting to the point were widows are the ones selling planes and no amount of money makes any sense. Thanks? Edit: I don't think David Herman's post was completely wrong but I'm not sure I fully agree with it either.

That was a good post. I had to think about which three qualities of women are most important. Now... if there were only a way to keep all three maintained. I used to fly behind some fairly nice panels and recently went back a couple of decades w.r.t. installed avionics. It did make a difference... but I'm not complaining either... it's just different flying. That said, going from two radios and WAAS GPS to one radio and no GPS did alter the way I fly and the types of flying that would be comfortable. I don't take many pictures from outside the plane while on the ground. Most of the pictures I've taken are of from the inside looking out at altitude... which probably describes my priorities.

I also noticed my fantastically high reputation dropped from a whopping 3 to a 2 after this post which made me chuckle. I normally only search and read as opposed to actively posting on boards. That said, if anyone feels slighted or wronged, feel free to send me a message or call me out publicly if anything I say inappropriate or inaccurate. One might even suggest that I go back to searching and reading as opposed to contributing to conversations. I don't offend very easily and value opinions that differ from my own. I'm not always right.

The reason for the post was to assess my ability to calculate an reasonable offer. I ran the numbers and came up very close to the first few posters (except I missed the WAASS GPS on my assessment). I haven't looked this plane over in person and won't do so unless I know approximately how much I think the check should be written out for... given the information supplied was accurate. It's too much headache to go around kicking tires and I really don't have the time or patience for that approach. If a seller isn't interested in what I approximately value the asset on the front end... they aren't likely to "come around" later. If a seller doesn't want to have that conversation up front, then (in my mind) they aren't serious about selling yet and I want to move on quickly. The PPI, while not perfect, is meant to catch inaccuracies, airworthy issues, and dishonest representations. I don't want to pay for one unless there is a high probability of the transaction going through. I don't see a transaction going through unless the buyer has assessed the value and risks up and the seller has agreed to them.

No worries Jim... we are good. I value your opinion and thank you very much for it. I know your intentions are good and helpful. I'm try not to be argumentative either and hope I didn't/don't come off that way either.

I don't think falling in love with a plane before the purchase is a good thing. I also think that those that have owned are well suited to asses value. When that's considered, what would be the bias to undervalue? I can't see the reason.

I noticed this plane has been for sale in Gainesville, GA for awhile. Does anyone know anything about it? What are your thoughts on the price? https://www.trade-a-plane.com/search?category_level1=Single+Engine+Piston&make=MOONEY&model=M20C&listing_id=2294608&s-type=aircraft

I've been keeping up with what's out there and mapping the trends... they sure are ugly. Paul is right, there are no deals out there.

In all fairness the initial costs of an M20J are greater than the pre-J models and looks to represent a slightly different market. Cost and value are very different... fixed.

In all fairness the initial cost of an M20J are greater than the pre-J models and looks to represent a slightly different market. When I speak of values, I am referring to current published Blue-Book values for C,E,G, &F models. Another data point for valuation is The Mooney Flyer valuation tool for pre-J planes. It agrees fairly well with the Blue-Book retail values and I figure the guys that put the tool together knows Mooneys fairly well. Also, when I inquired about hull value for insurance, I was told that the published Blue-Book values were used as a baseline. Insured values were adjusted up or down based on equipment and times from there. Hence, I could only insure for a certain hull value regardless of what was paid.

I agree that maintenance should not be included and adds no value. Hence, $5-10K disappears at the time of purchase since it can't really be recovered... but the check still has to be written. The ADSB hit adds no value to a purchase for either a buyer or seller (in my mind). However, someone has to write the check eventually. I know some will argue that ADSB is great and I don't want to get into that discussion.

Assuming an owner would discount appropriately for engine time... The OH would need to be accounted for now (even if ran on-condition for a while) which would start things off at $50K. Add ADSB right now... $5K on top of that. The acquisition expenses, say $5K, while necessary, could not be aded to the value. The $5K first year unknown expenses is unrecoverable sunk costs. A WAAS GPS would be great, but lets defer that to keep immediate costs down. Lets say this is all that's needed and everything else is good-to-go. Bear in mind, the prop hasn't turned yet. At this point, approximately $65K has been spent under ideal conditions. This plane now has a market value closer to $40-45K when the time to sale comes and would compete against other planes in the marketplace. So... plan for a $20-25K loss on the front end based on ideal conditions? How in the heck does one have that conversation with a seller? The seller doesn't care or want to hear about that since it won't be their problem. The small group of people that can afford to purchase are often Attorneys, Physicians, Engineers, Investment Bankers, etc. Those people are fairly good with assessments and make a living of researching to asses value.

Thanks. I looked at that ad. It's good to hear that it was being flown. The engine is close to TBO so a rebuild would likely be near. The light hail damage is a bit of a turn-off... but the ad is upfront about it. What do you think about the asking price with those things considered? Feel free to message me if you prefer to discuss it privately. I don't want to bring a negative light to the ad. Does anyone know if light hail damage could cause any insurance issues?

Travel gets expensive very quickly and logistics usually seems to be more difficult than expected.

I agree with you. It's really not worth the energy and drama to consider those planes. I strongly dislike knowing those planes are destined for doom though. More importantly, how does GA survive if the only way to really go anywhere is for a prospective new pilot to be ready to write a $60K check after coughing up $8-10K for the PP ticket? I have several friends that I frequently try to talk into getting their tickets. I have very little to say when it comes to costs... maybe my answer should be "too much" and quit trying to talk them into it.

You bring up an interesting aspect... negotiate down or negotiate up? Just as a hypothetical example: a late 60s M20, factory shotgun panel, dated radios that could use some work, no corrosion issues, "reasonable" interior and paint, priced with a runout engine would be worth $20-25K perhaps... maybe slightly less? Subtract $9K for the weeping tanks that will need resealed very soon. Subtract $5K to get the radios back into usable condition if all goes well (no GPS). That brings an offer down to $11-16K depending on a multitude of other factors! At that point, the conversation doesn't seem worth engaging in. Say the owner doesn't want to turn the plane into Beer cans though.. someone puts the negotiation time in to make the purchase, write the $16K for the purchase, $25K check for the rebuild, $9K for the tanks, and $5K for the radios. Which brings us back to around $55-60K for a late 60s M20 with a shotgun panel, basic radios, "reasonable" paint and interior, no GPS, no AP, and a good engine... if everything goes well. That's not accounting for PPI costs, ferry costs, and other costs that I'm certain to be missing. The time investment of the endeavor is substantial as well.

You're right about there being another side. Selling is likely no easy task either. That said, the end result looks like it stays the same regardless of the side once a certain point is reached.

I have to agree and wonder what the application was targeting. Normally sales and marketing won't sign off on a project unless the target is well specified and can be profitable.

Most of the planes I seen do not have an AP... which is a huge drawback. Most still have shotgun panels, no GPS, and poor avionics. That said, some would be absolutely fine for mostly VFR. A pre-buy looks to be a necessity... but getting to one is almost a problem since many can't make it past the log-book scan. The expected risks and expected sell prices don't balance out and it's not worth wasting any more time at that point. Nobody wants to take the loss on an engine that wasn't run regularly.

I've been searching and reading this forum for a few years. Corrosion is certainly something to be concerned about. Some of the corrosion threads I've read look to be the direct result of some that took the gamble and lost.

Most of the planes I've seen lately fall within the "Hangar Queen" category. At some point those will almost certainly be demoted to "Ramp Queens". Once that happens, it's almost certain to be too late to save without being upside-down. It looks like a recipe for extinction since there are more plane going out of service that being brought into service. It's very sad to see planes that could be returned to service get caught up in the downward spiral.