JMO-
The right gear failed at the wing spar trunnion due to hard landing-
The right spar failed due to damage from the gear failure and contact with the ground
The rest is lucky history for those involved
Airports wouldn't normally "close" for the kind of weather shown here. Challenging but not unheard of.
Observations of no flare probably correct. 1100 FPM is a valid data point.
We don't know at this time if the proper airspeed was calculated (ref + ?) or if it was maintained throughout the approach. We don't know if the bottom fell out right at the end , or if the controls were activated to counter that fall out, or if the throttles were pushed up at the end to gain speed. All of this will be on the data recorder. Pilot inputs at the end will play a big part in the causal determination.
Mechanical compromise due to corrosion in the gear mount will be looked at.
As will pilot's history and competency.
Just my postulation- for most of the commercial aviation history we were effectively "skimming the cream" off of the pilot pool barrel. Now for a generation or two we have been digging deeper into that barrel, at times scrapping the bottom of the barrel, to fill the pipe line. The deeper you go the closer you get to the competency line.
Even when I was flying 121 years ago you always had 1 or 2% of the pilot pool at any airline that really needed to be doing something else but flying as is evidenced by many of the historical accidents we have all read about over the last 50 years. Chief Pilots always spent 90% of their time on 10% of their pilots. Its just a fact of life.
NOT EVERYONE IS CUT OUT TO BE A PILOT- even if they can get through the training.
The deeper you go into the pilot pool barrel the more chance you will have of pulling out a dead fish.
I'd really like to see a chart of the number of jet rated pilots, year by year, over the last 50 years. And the same chart with numbers of ATPs.
When the numbers were low you could pick and choose (mostly military pilot pool to draw from). Now with the high numbers needed?
ALL the training in the world can't replace experience!
(Used to be that one sat side saddle for 2-5 years then right seat for another 3-6 and then you got the left seat. Now there are lots of 90 day wonders in comparison.
We now have many who have never hand flown a sweep wing at high altitude (due to RVSM). The sim just don't cut it for this. I used to make all my copilots on IOE hand fly at altitude to get a feel for it. One refused - he didn't make it through IOE.
Again JMO from 60 years in the business. Shields are up.