Matthew,
I’m no expert on values, but I’ve owned a dozen airplanes over the last 55 years, so take my thoughts with that caveat. Prices are hard to figure out because there are so many variables from one airplane to the next. Sources like V-ref are more accurate for popular airplanes with lots of sales to populate their databases.
That said, the market has been pretty crazy over the last 36 months. My sense is that prices on most models are declining a bit at present. Take price guides with a grain of salt. Other commenters here have given good advice so I won’t repeat that. What I will add is that you should buy one in the condition and equipped as you want. Don’t buy less and think you want to “fix it up”. That almost never works unless you have the time, skills and certifications to do the work yourself. Airplane renovations are the source of the adage that “You can make a small fortune in aviation, if you start with a large one.” Pay a little more for what you want and you’ll be better off. With Mooneys especially, look for one that doesn’t sit around a lot. Corrosion is a big issue, particularly with idle Lycomings and steel cage airframes.
Good hunting and good luck!
Tim