I too am trying to get my brain around some of the prices. I think that in general the prices I have seen are in line with the average for similar airplanes, but there are always a few oddballs.
An example, I went to look at a 64 E' with a "shotgun" panel, 3/10 paint, 3/10 interior, low time motor, and a 1991 gear up. It did have a some mods to include 201 tips, flap gap seals as well as a 201 windshield, 3 blade prop and tail fairing. Still, the price was pretty high (50K). Maybe VREF is very misleading, but when I valued the aircraft, then considered the value of the mods by depreciating the original cost of the mods by 50% (maybe this was too much), subtracting ~6k for bad P&I and another ~5k for the gear up (maybe this was also too much, and even though it happend almost 20 years ago, its a stigma and I would guess it affects the value forever to some extent), I come up with a figure that is at least 10k lower than the asking price. At some point, the offer becomes more of an insult, and it was the first airplane I looked at, so I never made an offer.
I would be interested in other's opinions of my valuation process. I'm still in the process of understanding the market as a whole, so my numbers may be way off.