Van's following in Mooney's footsteps, and not in a good way

[ZuluZulu]

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/cash-strapped-vans-announces-recovery-plan/

[EricJ]

I'd heard about some of these issues.    They're not the first company to get bit in the butt by quality control issues.  It sounds like they were a little too quick to outsource some things, or vet vendors or something.

In any case, I hope they recover.   They're probably one of the bigger sources of GA airplanes these days, so losing them would be a big blow to the cause.

 

[DCarlton]

If Vans can’t make it buried in orders, I don’t know how anyone could.  Was rushing to outsource laser punched holes enough to bring down the house?  Or outsourcing to the PI and Brazil?  

[Bartman]

Vans bought off more than they could chew.  They have too many models and tried to continue to grow, even through The Pandemic.  They outsourced manufacturing to decrease cost, but the materials are undeliverable due to quality control issues.  They have cash tied up in undeliverable products, and a manufacturing business must have free cash to operate.

I considered ordering an RV-14 kit a few years ago, but the delivery lag time was a red flag, and now I'm glad I did not place the order.  

[M20F]

How do you say RV-7 in Chinese?

[PT20J]

Stuff rolls downhill. Van’s is Lycoming’s largest customer. 

[GeeBee]

Financial difficulties for a kit plane maker are really bad news. While buying an out of production airplane has consequences, they are nothing compared to kits. Nobody is going to buy a "tail kit" if they don't know if the company will be there to produce the fuselage or wing kits in the future. It's a problem that is outsizes itself quickly. Unless you buy the entire kit you would not want to order.

 

 

[EricJ]

3 hours ago, GeeBee said:

Financial difficulties for a kit plane maker are really bad news. While buying an out of production airplane has consequences, they are nothing compared to kits. Nobody is going to buy a "tail kit" if they don't know if the company will be there to produce the fuselage or wing kits in the future. It's a problem that is outsizes itself quickly. Unless you buy the entire kit you would not want to order.

I know two people with partial RV-14 tail kits.   They got the laser-cut parts so I think aren't going to proceed with them until there's a resolution of some kind.   I'm sure there are people with nearly complete kits that are a bit anxious about what might happen.   I don't know how good the drawings are, but I'm wondering if people may have to finish off of drawings rather than supplied parts.

Apparently deliveries got way behind during the pandemic, and then stopped (and even some recalled, I think), after the laser-cut issues.    I don't know much about the issue with priming, but apparently that presents an additional roadblock.   Not being able to deliver product definitely cramps cash flow. 

I hope they get it sorted out.   It'll be very sad if they don't survive or have to scale way back from what they were doing.

 

[GeeBee]

Sounds like the end of Chapter 10.

[skykrawler]

Just imagine Boeing's position with Spirit Aero Systems - or any other outsourced part.

[GeeBee]

Boeing had some bad fuselages from SA. They've also lost some fuselages in train derailments.

 

[Echo]

Paul B at AvWeb is on a roll this morning.  They are "keeping it real" over there with articles on Van's and Cirrus.  Good wake-up coffee sipping reading for those seeing "things" listing to port in the U.S.A.  I am sure it will all work out great for everyone in GA.  O.K. Halloween's coming and I need to work on my whistling for the graveyards I and U.S.A. are wandering through.  Headwinds?  Maybe "a couple".

[Echo]

Amoral.  "Hey Siri or Alexa, what's the definition of amoral?"...

Long range plan?

What is that?

USA!  USA!  USA!...

[A64Pilot]

To be clear, there is nothing wrong with Lasar cutting if it’s done correctly, yes there is a heat affected zone but it’s very small and easily dealt with.

Thrush has been Lasar cutting everything for decades, without any issues, only thick steel we water jetted, everything else was Lasar cut.

[N201MKTurbo]

3 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

To be clear, there is nothing wrong with Lasar cutting if it’s done correctly, yes there is a heat affected zone but it’s very small and easily dealt with.

Thrush has been Lasar cutting everything for decades, without any issues, only thick steel we water jetted, everything else was Lasar cut.

Did you laser cut rivet holes that were dimpled? That seems to be where the trouble was. The metal was cracking while dimpling.

[A64Pilot]

1 hour ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Did you laser cut rivet holes that were dimpled? That seems to be where the trouble was. The metal was cracking while dimpling.

Yes, of course, although there aren’t many flush rivets on a crop duster, only ones come to mind are there because something like a fairing etc lays on top of them. A lot of times the metal was thick enough for counter sinking instead of dimpling, but there was some dimpling, just not a lot

However you don’t cut full size holes, for two reasons, the laser leaves a rough surface and secondly there is a 
heat affected zone” a very small portion of the metal around the hole’s heat treat is ruined so that has to be removed which is done when the hole is drilled out to full size.

The rivet holes are just markers if you will, they have to be drilled / reamed to full size, but the Laser of course lays out perfect rivet lines, so it saves a lot of time in lay out.

Secondly you never start cutting in the perimeter, the Laser blows a hole very similar to a torch, so you always have the Laser start cutting from the inside of the hole then cutting around. The thing moves very fast maybe 1 sec per hole?

Knowing absolutely nothing about their problem I’d guess it could be they started cutting on the perimeter, if so then a visual inspection would find a small notch if you will in the edge of the hole, which you would see the crack propagating from.

Either is to be honest Laser cutting 101, surprised any kind of aircraft manufacturer didn’t catch that right off, if that’s the problem.

Every manufacturer outsources, for a Certified aircraft process specs must be met and regular on site inspections are required, I guess not for Experimental.

I think pretty much every manufacturer Laser cuts, old way was Broken arm routers that were dangerous, and I suppose high speed milling machines would be best, but a Laser is fine, just requires deburring is all.

Other than hearing Van had a problem, I know nothing at all about it so I’m speculating.

[SKI]

All of what A64 says is pretty much true. I've worked in machining/fabrication for 28 years. I'm not building a Vans but I am building a Bearhawk Patrol. I get my Lazer cut parts done 1/16" undersized then use a piloted double margin drill and open them up to size. A Lazer cut hole or edge if you could magnify it looks similar to an edge cut with a cutting torch. It's kind of jagged. The process is essentially the same. Melting metal from the top and blowing it out the bottom of the sheet. Lazer is MUCH more precise but you get the idea. I doubt they pierced the holes on the perimeter, Everyone knows not to do that and it would have left a really noticeable defect. They probably pierced on center but moved straight out in one axis to the perimeter then started the circle cut. All CNC machines pause when they change direction (I own 5 of them). It's only a millisecond but it's there. So that millisecond pause on the perimeter probably caused a overburn spot and they probably led off the perimeter at that same spot to go back to center to end the cut so even more overburn. It would only be a few thousandths but when you start dimpling which stretches the material it's tearing at that imperfection. My mills will do the same thing because the endmills deflect, VERY minimal but it's there. They should have led in and out using a spiraling tool path. That eliminates that hard change in direction and millisecond pause. That's my thoughts as a CNC guy but I'm not an airplane manufacturer.   

[N201MKTurbo]

From what I've heard, Van's vendor was starting and finishing the cut on the perimeter and cutting the holes to the final size. So it had the notch, and the heat affected zone was not removed.

FWIW, at my previous job I occasionally wrote software for laser scanning systems, including welding systems for pacemaker batteries and a monster laser cutter that would cut out paper food bowls on the fly as they moved down a conveyor. That one had a 5KW CO2 laser. It hardly ever caught on fire. The chiller for that laser was 4x6x5 feet with 1.5" water lines.

[EricJ]

I think the technology used may not be the issue.    There was a process change and evidently insufficient quality control to verify the new process.   That can happen with any process change, especially with a technology change (punch to laser, although it could have been anything).    Maybe a similar verification failure happened with the primer issue.

Van's isn't a big company and they were probably dealing with cash flow issues from the pandemic/supply chain problems anyway, so being tight on process verification may have been hard to avoid.   It's not shocking that they got bit by it, though, as that's not unusual in industry.   I hope they find a way through everything, but they may come out the other side a much different company.

[EricJ]

Here's some decent insight and some potential optimism.

https://flyer.co.uk/feature/how-did-vans-aircraft-get-into-this-mess

[DCarlton]

A friend is building an RV12.  The sheet metal is surprisingly thin; for me uncomfortably thin.  My gut tells me that thinner materials may behave differently when punched or laser drilled and dimpled particularly when it comes to cracks.  I'd need to be convinced the engineering models are valid with really thin materials.  I think I'd have to be on the inside and see some of the data and analyses to get comfortable with the design and processes on some of these airplanes.  I haven't had an opportunity to compare the materials in the LSA with the other models though.  Take a look at Vans published service bulletins.  An RV-8 would be fun but I'll take the Mooney.  

[Pinecone]

As I understand it, the vendor changed the process without telling Van's.  

[WilliamR]

On 11/2/2023 at 11:20 AM, EricJ said:

I think the technology used may not be the issue.    There was a process change and evidently insufficient quality control to verify the new process.   That can happen with any process change, especially with a technology change (punch to laser, although it could have been anything).    Maybe a similar verification failure happened with the primer issue.

Van's isn't a big company and they were probably dealing with cash flow issues from the pandemic/supply chain problems anyway, so being tight on process verification may have been hard to avoid.   It's not shocking that they got bit by it, though, as that's not unusual in industry.   I hope they find a way through everything, but they may come out the other side a much different company.

I would agree. Especially, as the company said as much. Besides the quality issue, the bigger issue is a gross margin and working capital problem. Again, very common. Labor and commodity prices really hit hard last year for lots of companies. Look at the price of aluminum. Down from last year, but still very high on a historical basis. These are fixable issues, though. 

Van's turnaround consultants should be able to show a good path forward given the long historical success of the product. No, kit prices will likely not stay the same.

GA is not all doom and gloom. I know of one seasoned GA company that is in the bank market now for a capital raise that is being very well received. Wrapped up a div recap on another this last spring that was an institutional deal. Saw a refi/upsize on another all bank deal this past summer that was oversubscribed. This is not stupid, cheap money chasing deals. That market died 18 mos. ago.

William

 

[EricJ]

9 hours ago, Pinecone said:

As I understand it, the vendor changed the process without telling Van's.  

It can be tough with foreign vendors, but usually an outsourcing contract includes provisions for no changes without approval, or is specific about what is allowed and what isn't.

[Fly Boomer]

51 minutes ago, EricJ said:

It can be tough with foreign vendors, but usually an outsourcing contract includes provisions for no changes without approval, or is specific about what is allowed and what isn't.

Who was it that said "Trust but verify"?