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High Fuel Prices


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May I gripe about sky high avgas prices on this forum? Hopefully fuel prices will eventually come down some. Doesn't high avgas prices put a damper on general aviation? With sky-high avgas prices, doesn't it affect the value of our airplanes, as the activity of flying is less desireable? Just wanted to gripe publicly. I know this is a problem this forum cannot fix.

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Took an "almost" trip to the West coast Tues and Wed of this week.  Wife feeling bad, so took a Covid test and was positive, we turned around in TX.

Anyway: fuel prices, VA. $6.00, TN $7.61, AR $6.18, TX. $7.60, AR. $5.24, and KY. $5.48.

A mix of full service FBO's to Self Serve.

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Diesel and 100LL are running neck and neck at the rural airports with the cities 100LL is much higher.   The f250 gets about 18 mpg when pulling a trailer and 25 when not.   The Mooney gets about 18mpg but trailer towing limits are pretty low.  That being said the Mooney will fit a pick up truck's bed worth of Pizza.

Edited by Yetti
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Ive been flying slower and more economically with the high gas prices... Giving up about 15 knots to save 3-4 GPH.

 Relax everyone... You have the most fuel efficient GA aircraft, High gas prices suck, but they most certainly increase the value of a Mooney.   Low gas prices mean the efficiency is less of a concern and visa versa.

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We are at the beginning of a recession in my opinion, all I can think of to do myself is cut expenses and ride it out. I’m Retired so I can’t increase income.

Airplanes are Luxury items, and if your having to cut expenses Luxury items are the first to not be purchased, so yes I believe aircraft values will tank and those that borrowed money to buy one will be upside down. I expect huge devaluation.

Fuel cost I’m afraid will continue to increase until it gets so high people can’t afford it and the decreased demand will cause the price to stabilize. How high is that? I don’t know, frankly I can’t understand how the average person is affording the increased spending that comes from inflation now, I’m afraid they are doing so by increasing debt, which of course can only work temporarily and then you have not only the increased costs due to inflation, but the debt to service.

What amazes me is people seem to still be buying big ticket items, and doing so on credit of course.

Of course this is all my opinion, but I think it’s going to get worse and for a long time.

Watch the Market, we are very soon to be in a Bear market, last one was 08, remember then? This one could be worse because we are continuing the policies that put us here and it’s not getting the attention it should.

Edited by A64Pilot
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2 hours ago, Stan said:

Took an "almost" trip to the West coast Tues and Wed of this week.  Wife feeling bad, so took a Covid test and was positive, we turned around in TX.

Anyway: fuel prices, VA. $6.00, TN $7.61, AR $6.18, TX. $7.60, AR. $5.24, and KY. $5.48.

A mix of full service FBO's to Self Serve.

Next time in TN, fuel at KUCY. $5.58 at they have a great terminal for your wife.

 

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2 hours ago, Austintatious said:

Relax everyone... You have the most fuel efficient GA aircraft, High gas prices suck, but they most certainly increase the value of a Mooney.

Doesn't do us any good if we're not selling! Just means we gotta insure for higher value and spend even more. :rolleyes:

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Such dire predictions. Two thoughts, the first being that when I started investing in the late 80's and the crash of October '87 occurred, the predictions were cataclysmic. I was in my late 20's at the time and didn't know more than what people told me and the thoughts of another great depression kept running through my mind. Fast forward a few short months and the markets came bouncing back - and then some. Then along came 2000 and the same people shouted "this time it's different", but the markets eventually came back. In 2008 the same people said this time it was was going to be catastrophic and it will lead to another great depression, but being in my 40's I knew better than to listen to the so called experts. While it didn't take a few short months to recover as it did in 1987, by 2012 things were starting to hum along, all the while I had been buying since 2009 knowing things would eventually recover - and it paid off in spades. Now I hear the same people saying the same old thing. If there is one thing that I have learned over the years it's this, never bet against the United States.

Second, historically gas prices have always come down from their highs. I bought into my partnership in 2010 and remember seeing $6.00/100LL in 2012 and thinking to myself what have I gotten myself into? Well, that was short lived, having seen prices of $3.50 within a year or two. A lot of people love to blame the current situation on the guy in charge, but for those that do deeper reading, there's a whole cacophony of reasons why oil prices are so high, among them are world geopolitical challenges as well as refineries slow to get the spigot going after shutting down most production in 2020. And no, it's not because Keystone was killed because at the time it was only 8% complete and wasn't to become operational until at least 2025 - assuming lawsuits with ranchers were settled. Trust me, prices will eventually come down again.

All of these predictions remind me of the "Little Timmy" thread here on MS from a decade ago, which became so heated that the Administrator abruptly shut it down. There was one poster, ScottFromIowa, who said that by the time he (and I) were ready to collect Social Security in ten years, it will no longer be there. No matter what I said to convince him that the program will survive well into the future, he just wouldn't listen to reason and was thoroughly convinced that by 2021 it would cease to exist. Well guess what, that next decade is here, and the while not exactly solvent, Social Security is still paying 100% of its commitment.

Just my 2₵.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Yetti said:

The Mooney gets about 18mpg but trailer towing limits are pretty low

god dam i need this upgrade 

 

Yeah the higher prices have hurt but hasnt stopped me from flying yet. About to take a trip out to the west coast again. Not looking forward to fueling out there. 

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I’m not made of money, but gas prices haven’t scared me yet.  If I fly 100 hours/year at 10gph, that’s 1000gallons.  At $6 vs $5 / gallon, that’s $1k extra.  Maybe it’ll be $7 vs $5, so $2k?  My airplane costs me an average of $18k /year all in (including some upgrades I’ve done), so it’s not a huge percentage.  I’d rather prices were low, but I like the airplane more.

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@a64 were probably in a recession, a bear market for according to analytics.

not the first one nor the last one. Make good economic decisions we’ll be ok, do dumb stuff maybe destroyed.

Lots of wealth can be acquired in a market like this, the opposite is true for most.

I have a lot of clients who flourish in times a coming.

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I'm sure I'm not the only one on this forum that has access to airline (non-rev) passes for free.  The effect of high avgas prices is to decrease the diameter of the "convenience versus dollars circle".

I almost always fly my Mooney when I go from here to ILM, but this weekend we slogged through the TSA, the ATL parking and rode in the back of a jet because Modern in ILM is charging $8.40/gallon + ramp fees.  I'm not sure when the dollars for avgas will balance the misery of commercial, but certainly $8.40 is getting close.

 

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56 minutes ago, Danb said:

@a64 were probably in a recession, a bear market for according to analytics.

not the first one nor the last one. Make good economic decisions we’ll be ok, do dumb stuff maybe destroyed.

Lots of wealth can be acquired in a market like this, the opposite is true for most.

I have a lot of clients who flourish in times a coming.

I believe we will ride it out, I don’t think we will see a great depression unless China goes into one or some other unforeseen catastrophe, but the last ten years have been so good I’m not looking forward to the lean times I know are coming.

Those with plenty of cash or just enough wealth it won’t matter, actually if you have bunches of cash and no debt You’ll be sitting in the Cat bird seat and will be able to buy for pennies on the dollar, to sell for dollars again upon recovery or just keep. I bought a boat right after 08, you couldn’t give boats away then, Broker said all the closings he attended two checks were written, one by the buyer and another by the seller to cover the loan. It’s the people with large debt, especially those who have balloon payments or whatever who’s plan was to refinance before the payment was due that will get hurt, and or those who can’t cut or reduce expenses, or just won’t.

I think we will be OK, but not everyone will and honestly I hate seeing others in pain.

But I do think now is not the time to buy, maybe in another year or two when things bottom out.

What does worry me is no one is worried, there is no news coverage and we continue to dig deeper still saying things are transitory, previously by this time recognition had set in and things were started to assist in recovery.

Rent has gone crazy here in Central Fl and many especially have had to seek other living, many younger ones have moved back in with parents etc. Many trucks here sit too because what they would be paid doesn’t cover the fuel, prices of everything are rapidly rising. People cry about gas prices but truthfully that’s not really a problem, but jack Diesel real high and everything will increase in price, substantially, farmers get hit not only with fuel but fertilizer. It snowballs

What I wonder and what will play heavily is the average person running up debt now? Is that how they are making ends meet? Cause if they are, that’s at best only a temporary solution.

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I noticed that traffic has not reduced one bit. If anything, it seems like there is more traffic. So, it is obvious that gas isn’t too expensive because nobody is economizing.

I know people can reduce their driving, the day after the lockdown started I was out riding my bike and there were no cars anywhere. It was like one of those 1950s post WWIII movies.

It does seem quieter at the airport.

Edited by N201MKTurbo
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15 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

. So, it is obvious that gas isn’t too expensive because nobody is economizing.

I witness speeds in general have not reduced.... 80-90 still prevailing!  Hmmmmm..... 

 

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5 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

I witness speeds in general have not reduced.... 80-90 still prevailing!  Hmmmmm..... 

 

The petroleum market is rarely in a supply limited scenario. That is what we have now. The government has reduced domestic production and taken 30% of the world supply off line. Now that the world is supply limited, the price will increase until demand reduces. You can’t stop the invisible hand. 

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22 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

government has reduced domestic production and taken 30% of the world supply off line

According to the latest data set from the Bureau of Land Management, as of December 31, 2021, the oil companies were sitting on 9,173 approved permits to drill.  I'm sure they want more, but they could extract more petroleum from their existing sources, and they could start drilling on some of those unused permits.  BTW, remind me what the oil companies gain by increasing supply?

The largest oil and gas companies made a combined $174 billion in profits in the first nine months of last year as gasoline prices climbed, and have so far resisted calls for increased production.  They are, after all, businesses, and the reason businesses exist is to make profit for their owners.  Sounds to me like they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do.  Increasing supply would just drive prices down.

As a shareholder (and receiver of dividends) I am opposed to that.

 

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1 hour ago, MooneyMitch said:

I witness speeds in general have not reduced.... 80-90 still prevailing!  Hmmmmm..... 

 

And those are the people bitching most about the price of gas.

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I feel your pain...
Maybe you will get some relief when you learn that we have to pay close to 12USD/USGal for AVGAS100LL in good old Europe.. 
Anyway, we keep on flying (LOP most of the time ;)).
Best from Germany,
Matthias

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