Mooney Prices Booming: Buy now or wait for the dip?

[aviatoreb]

25 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

I know I sound like some kind of conspiracy nut, but I believe some CEO’s have learned that there is profit in shortages, because apparently what shortage means isn’t that it’s unavailable, just that it cost more. Think of lumber just a few months ago for example.

We can’t build cars because there are “chip” shortages, but you can buy computers, video games and other consumer electronics that surely have “chips” in them.

Then Tesla last quarter delivered more cars than they had before, and I can assure you a Tesla has a lot of “chips”.

But back to the current economy, I’m in back woods Al now, Lanett to be exact and went to Sonic to get a milk shake, and when I ordered it I was told that due to staff shortages it would be 20 min., and they did have half the stalls closed too. They can’t get people to come to work, in my life that’s unprecended, I don’t know where this is going, but I don’t think it’s sustainable, not without getting the Military, we gutted NASA, I guess the Military is next?

Inflation is one way you pay for deficit spending, or that’s my understanding anyway

I have no idea.

But I will say computers are not all that available.  I ordered a high end computer and its been 3 months since it came. Another high end machine took 6 months from March ( I mean like 15k workstation class computational machines).  I hear that stuff like avionics (Garmin) is back ordering. From what I see, supply chain is random and sporadic.  I was talking to the guy at the bike shop down the street and he said he is really suffering right now because he can't sell bikes or parts because he can't seem to get in stock to sell.  So its not just computers.  I hear that people doing airplane engines are back ordering some of the necessary parts. I hope my engine survives this weird period. I am 200 over tbo but - knock on wood - still going strong for now.  I don't know what is going on, but something is definitely going on.

[A64Pilot]

11 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

 I don't know what is going on, but something is definitely going on.

I concur with that, just it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, they way supply / demand works is that whenever the supply dries up, prices inflate, the higher prices drives manufacturers to go into overtime and produce more to get the higher profit, and before long, prices come back down because if anything there is an excess supply.

But that doesn’t seem to be happening here, I can’t imagine that Ford or GM or Toyota can’t figure a way around the shortages, Tesla did, now he probably doesn’t manufacture a fraction of what they do, but the way business works that means he’s supplied after the big customers get theirs.

But with it being so bad that Sonic closes half its booths and you can’t get a milkshake for 20 min., doesn’t bode well, that’s simply people choosing not to work and that’s not sustainable.

[carusoam]

You all recall a couple of things…

1) New guy is searching for a Mooney…

2) Discussing the end of the world politics… probably isn’t that helpful….  

3) If it was….  Grab the free money while you can, break out the old O’president free phone, and plan to live in a box…  it is better for affording a giant Mooney….

4) Same political drama on a different day… Milton Friedman was brilliant….

5) And yes… in another thread we see that Covid is a hoax,  corporate America wants it to exist…

6) Economics cycles always occur… nobody likes the down turns… but, they occur anyways…

7) For some reason economic cycles get discussed like a baseball game….  We have been in the early innings for a lot of years…

8) Raising interest rates slows things down incredibly well…

9) Remember Alan Greenspan…  he only got one thing wrong….

MS stays apolitical for a reason… 

Now back to helping out the new guy….

PP thoughts only, not a politician…

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Schllc]

If you have the money to pay cash and you want it, why wait. 
You could get run over by a vitamin truck tomorrow. 
as someone else said earlier, there is no financial sense in buying a plane, so the cost is more of a matter of degree. 
inflation is at least 20% of these price increases. 
doing the things I love to do is the reason work so hard. 
Sometimes you just have to say f it. 

[MikeOH]

Keep in mind that purchase price is going to be a small part of multi-year ownership...I'm a little over four years into ownership and I've already spent more operating than I paid to buy my plane

[A64Pilot]

I don’t think any of the “end of the world” discussion was political, at least none I saw said anything about one party or the other.

However I’d argue that understanding the current economic reality may well play into whether or not to make a large purchase or not now, which I believe was the question.

If I had a crystal ball and could tell you where we would be at in one year or five years, then I could answer that question, but I don’t. 

I do feel buying now is buying at the high or close or it, some don’t, they believe prices will continue to rise, but then many thought you couldn’t lose money in a house prior to 08 too. Either way for most an airplane shouldn’t be looked at as an investment, they are a depreciating asset.

However I think it uninformed to think the current situation is the normal ebb and flow, it’s actually historic “we” have never been where we are now, there’re is no precedence, you can’t say this is what happened last time we were here.

[A64Pilot]

12 hours ago, Schllc said:

If you have the money to pay cash and you want it, why wait. 
Sometimes you just have to say f it. 

Being Retired and not getting any younger, I said F it and bought a house in a fly-in community and a Mooney.

When I was younger I didn’t think much about waiting a few years until the economy got better, but now those few years are an ever increasing amount of the productive time I have left. Priorities change as you age sometimes.

I’m beginning to understand why those idiots bought houses etc in the early 80’s when rates were stupid high, but then when I was in my 20’s it seemed stupid.

[Hank]

16 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

I’m in back woods Al now, Lanett to be exact and went to Sonic to get a milk shake . . . .

What brings you over to my neck of the woods? Has the Lanett airport reopened from the 6-month resurfacing job in 2018?

[Hank]

16 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

I’m in back woods Al now, Lanett to be exact and went to Sonic to get a milk shake . . . .

What brings you over to my neck of the woods? Has the Lanett airport reopened from the 6-month resurfacing job in 2018?

[Pete M]

On 1/14/2022 at 11:57 AM, haymak3r said:

This, so very much this.. As a student pilot whom bought a Mooney in October.. I can't agree more with everybody in this thread, but this right here stands out. There is literally one insurance company in the US that will insure a student with a retract plane. You don't want to know how much my insurance is.. With that said, I am super happy that this fell in my lap, and I transitioned to flying it over the 172. If you plan on flying a Mooney and nobody is going to change your mind, then be prepared to spend more than most for things. 

I also would like to add that transitioning over to the Mooney has been amazing. And I also have more time with my instructor critiquing things past just the 10 hours for the endorsement. YMMV, but this is my plane. I plan to fly it for years, and so why not get used to it now, rather than waiting. Plus my plane fell in my lap, and was really a no brainer to get it in my situation. If it hadn't, then I would still have been in the 172 to complete my training. And then would continue my search for the right Mooney.

I guess the TLDR is. I wouldn't neccessarily try to get a plane while still training unless you just simply can't pass up a great deal/situation. Wait until you get your license and costs will be quite a bit cheaper for you.

Good luck!

Who is your ins co? I have a student buying an f. Having trouble finding ins. 

Prices will peak between now and june if they havent peaked already. Expect price drops going into fall. Magnitude of drop? Unknown. 30% certainly within the realm of possibility next two years. I cant emphasize this enough, unless you are wealthy and its a drop in the bucket for you, get partners.

Finish your ir first.

[A64Pilot]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

What brings you over to my neck of the woods? Has the Lanett airport reopened from the 6-month resurfacing job in 2018?

No, it’s still down, seems like it has been forever? Used to have cheap fuel.

Anyway Wife’s Father is deathly Ill has been for a few years but of course it gets worse with time, I suspect he doesn’t have long.. So we are trying to take care of them as well as we can but have to leave Mon. I’m tied down at Lagrange (KLGC). I hope Uber services this part of the world or I’m unsure how we can get to the airport Mon.

Been a heck of a few months, has to turn around soon? Mon I have to get back to pick up our old dog who has cancer and had an operation Fri.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time in Al, after Army we bought a house in Ozark. I liked Ozark, but I’m a Southern Red Neck by birth too so it’s expected.

[INA201]

1.  Can you afford to maintain the plane you want?

2.  Can you afford to purchase the plane you want?

3.  Can you afford to fly the aircraft that you want after #1and #2?

If the answer is yes to all three above questions then......

4. Do you WANT to buy a plane right now in todays pricing and environment?

If you have four yes votes then buy a plane and of course Mooney is the best choice.

If there is a NO Vote in there then wait until everything lines up.  Simple

 

[larryb]

I think some folks pay too much attention to the purchase price when in reality, it doesn't matter much. It can easily cost $30K per year to own and operate a Mooney. Even the little stuff is expensive. I just bought a new battery and that was over $500. Fine wire spark plugs are more than $100. Each. The reality is that over time operating costs will easily outpace purchase price. 

 

While $30K/year sounds expensive, it is no more than many families pay for child care for 1 or 2 kids or private school tuition. 

[Bravoman]

There are different dynamics at play now then say the early 2000s when there was a big run up in prices. The desire to avoid the airlines and folks who aren’t pilots buying planes to be able to do that as well as travel on their own schedule, and fewer  airframes due to attrition and limited production. My crystal ball says that prices will continue to run for a while and when the market settles back some it might be as much as 30% off the highs but I don’t think we will see 2018 prices ever again.

[jetdriven]

On 1/14/2022 at 11:57 AM, haymak3r said:

This, so very much this.. As a student pilot whom bought a Mooney in October.. I can't agree more with everybody in this thread, but this right here stands out. There is literally one insurance company in the US that will insure a student with a retract plane. You don't want to know how much my insurance is.. With that said, I am super happy that this fell in my lap, and I transitioned to flying it over the 172. If you plan on flying a Mooney and nobody is going to change your mind, then be prepared to spend more than most for things. 

I also would like to add that transitioning over to the Mooney has been amazing. And I also have more time with my instructor critiquing things past just the 10 hours for the endorsement. YMMV, but this is my plane. I plan to fly it for years, and so why not get used to it now, rather than waiting. Plus my plane fell in my lap, and was really a no brainer to get it in my situation. If it hadn't, then I would still have been in the 172 to complete my training. And then would continue my search for the right Mooney.

I guess the TLDR is. I wouldn't neccessarily try to get a plane while still training unless you just simply can't pass up a great deal/situation. Wait until you get your license and costs will be quite a bit cheaper for you.

Good luck!

Ya I have a client insured with them. The first quote was 7k and I think they ended up over 5 grand. 

[WAFI]

Oops… I broke all the rules!!

1. Fell in love with a plane. “Mooney M20J”

2. Bought her sight on seeing, over the phone.

3. Didn’t have my PPL at the time of purchase.

4. Never even flown in one before putting my deposit down. “Actually the only Mooney I’ve ever been in is mine, still today.”

5. I didn’t cut my teeth in a Cessna “Won’t catch me dead in one” and went straight to the Ferrari. 

 

Things I did and I think am doing right-

1. Set a goal and accomplished it.

2. Signed up for Mooney Space

3. Did my transition training and continue to seek more knowledge from experienced Mooney pilots after breaking the above rules. 

4. Know your limitations. 

5. Fly, Fly, Fly and then Fly more.

6. Don’t look back, look to the future. 

 

My newbie pilot opinion-

Buying a plane is like wondering when will you be ready to have your first kid. You start asking yourself the questions. Do I have enough money, the right home, is it the right time in your relationship, and the list goes on and on. Then once you have one, you start think of have another one or two. 

The simple answer is… Good Luck and take the advice from the veteran MS in the above posts. Not so much me. 

[charheep]

Bigger question, how does one know if the prices/availability are heading down?  It seems like it will it take a huge increase in planes on the market for lower prices before anyone realizes the market is heading down.

[Schllc]

On 1/16/2022 at 11:06 AM, larryb said:

I think some folks pay too much attention to the purchase price when in reality, it doesn't matter much. It can easily cost $30K per year to own and operate a Mooney. Even the little stuff is expensive. I just bought a new battery and that was over $500. Fine wire spark plugs are more than $100. Each. The reality is that over time operating costs will easily outpace purchase price. 

 

While $30K/year sounds expensive, it is no more than many families pay for child care for 1 or 2 kids or private school tuition. 

Couldn’t agree with this more. Unless you have to sell the plane in duress, once the initial depreciation occurs the sales prices of an airplane remains relatively static (barring damage history or corrosion). If it’s nominally updated, and we’ll cared for they don’t really lose value. Look at what a 1980 J model sold for in 1980 and what they sell for today. The real “cost” is storing, maintaining, insuring and flying. 

If you factor in everything including training, over almost eight years of ownership, I have probably spent close to the entire cost of my first plane, but I sold that first plane for 10k more than I paid for it...

buying is the cheap and easy part, owning will bite you hard if you are pushing the envelope of what you can really afford. 

[Schllc]

14 minutes ago, charheep said:

Bigger question, how does one know if the prices/availability are heading down?  It seems like it will it take a huge increase in planes on the market for lower prices before anyone realizes the market is heading down.

It’s a large discretionary purchase of an asset that is completely unnecessary for probably 90% of the people that own them. They are also very expensive to own, even if they just sit there.  This is always a recipe for volatility, because when the economy goes south people cut these things first because they are a no brainer.  
One of my first very wealthy clients told me something years ago that stuck.  
It was said in the context of real estate but is applicable here as well.
He said don’t buy anything you can’t afford to hold for five years if the world goes to hell.
It was good advice, and has served me well. 

[MikeOH]

Ultimately, when it comes to buying toys (especially an airplane!), worrying about making sure you 'buy low' so you can 'sell high' just seems silly.  You do that when you are buying an INVESTMENT, NOT an airplane! 

IMHO

[ArtVandelay]

Bigger question, how does one know if the prices/availability are heading down?  It seems like it will it take a huge increase in planes on the market for lower prices before anyone realizes the market is heading down.

Keep track of the number for sale, when I was looking back in 2014, there was like 29 Js for sale.

[carusoam]

There are no statistics available to know what the market is doing….

 

for the small number of planes that will change hands in good or bad markets…

 

even if you collect your own data…

 

it is a number and ratio of sellers vs. buyers… that makes a difference.

in the end you are only buying one plane…

if there are two for sale and you are the only buyer… the price may come down…

Find Jimmy he has a pricing guide that can be really helpful!

Best regards,

 

-a-

[RobertGary1]

At 1050 hours since factory new my engine threw a rod to the tune of about $50k. That was just one year. Purchase price is small potatoes once all the numbers are crunched. 

[DCarlton]

7 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

At 1050 hours since factory new my engine threw a rod to the tune of about $50k. That was just one year. Purchase price is small potatoes once all the numbers are crunched. 

Tangent..  How did Lycoming explain that surprise? 

[RobertGary1]

2 hours ago, DCarlton said:

Tangent..  How did Lycoming explain that surprise? 

A big “eh”.