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Avgas 100LL Now Averages $5.27 Nationwide and Rising


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About 18 months ago, in April 2020, I bought what will likely be the lowest per gallon tank fill up of my life - $2.87/gallon - at KRME that usually has the lowest price for a hundred miles around at least. But that was some very strange market and world events that gave us that cheap gas. Today they are $4.40.

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2 hours ago, MatthiasArnold said:

Still less than the typical 11USD/gal in Germany :mellow:
But Germany is much smaller than the US - so distances flown and fuel burnt are less :D

Best from old Europe,

Matthias

some even go to look for gasoline in the neighboring country so small it is...:D

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In line with the price of oil also going up. Interestingly, while the current administration is taxing and flogging (bureaucratically speaking) the heck out of companies who generate the fuels on our own soil, we’re begging the countries who hate us to produce the more and ‘help us out’. As one who works in the industry, it’s completely ludicrous to see when there’s low hanging fruit in our own back yard. 

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Might be a bit off topic but the price of a four-pack of bacon has nearly doubled. Avgas has gone up about $.30/gallon recently, it was holding at $4.64 for a while, that was when I was flying around at 9gph. The Bravo is a bit more thirsty. Now back to my original point, if I could only find some body to pay their pro rata share of bacon...

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3 minutes ago, Tx_Aggie said:

In line with the price of oil also going up. Interestingly, while the current administration is taxing and flogging (bureaucratically speaking) the heck out of companies who generate the fuels on our own soil, we’re begging the countries who hate us to produce the more and ‘help us out’. As one who works in the industry, it’s completely ludicrous to see when there’s low hanging fruit in our own back yard. 


Looks like Plan A: is to run the other guys out of energy first….  Hold the low hanging fruit for when the other guys run out…

The other guys Plan A: constrain supply to keep prices low enough… to keep our companies on edge about increasing output…

When oil prices rise… people stop going places and spending money on the fun stuff… economy takes the hit.

Investing in energy companies is extra challenging…

I can’t imagine working in that industry…  very boom / bust…

 

Use caution when discussing political aspects of energy policies…  

Nothing shuts a thread down faster than politics.

Best regards,

-a-

 

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The goal of the current administration, is to drive prices of fossil fuels high enough that "green" energy becomes not only competitive, but "cheaper". A secondary effect is a reduction in transportation & power generation emissions, as fuel use declines via demand collapse due to those higher prices.

The only flaw to this approach is that with energy costs that high, the economy will tank. As oil crosses the $100/barrel mark, consumers are forced to spend more money on electricity and fuels (and everything else that has been transported to stores) that would have gone to more consumer goods.  

Natural gas prices have already doubled, and those in the northern states that heat with gas can expect high prices and spot shortages this winter. This is due to the fact that nearly half our wells are offline since February, for a number of new reasons. Number one is a June 2021 executive order reinstating methane emission rules, and a bill to reduce methane emissions 90 percent by 2030. The easiest way to comply, is to close oil wells, which is where gas also comes from. Hence, low supply, higher oil prices too. And US crude is light sweet crude, which is the prime source of avgas. Heavy sour crude from Venezuela, Canada, and the Middle East is the main source of asphalt & lubricants. That type of crude oil is high in sulfur (sour) and isn't easy to use for the new low-sulfur diesel fuels. The cleanest fuels come from US produced shale oil deposits. Which are under pressure to close.

This isn't political commentary, this is the current state of the oil and gas industry as our government implements the latest agenda. I learn most of it through my work in converting large diesel engines to run on a combination of natural gas and diesel, cutting emissions and saving money. But, the large OEM's are now being enticed to try to skip gas, and go straight to electric drive via batteries. Which may work, some day, but not in the next 10 years, at least, if ever. Energy can be stored and used in various forms, but you always need an equivalent amount of energy to power a process. Currently, liquid fuels are 13 times more energy dense than the best battery technology. Loosely translated, your 120 gallon Monroy tanks hold 720 pounds of fuel. You would need 4300 pounds of batteries to equal that performance.

Edited by philiplane
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2 hours ago, philiplane said:

The goal of the current administration, is to drive prices of fossil fuels high enough that "green" energy becomes not only competitive, but "cheaper". A secondary effect is a reduction in transportation & power generation emissions, as fuel use declines via demand collapse due to those higher prices.

The only flaw to this approach is that with energy costs that high, the economy will tank. As oil crosses the $100/barrel mark, consumers are forced to spend more money on electricity and fuels (and everything else that has been transported to stores) that would have gone to more consumer goods.  

Natural gas prices have already doubled, and those in the northern states that heat with gas can expect high prices and spot shortages this winter. This is due to the fact that nearly half our wells are offline since February, for a number of new reasons. Number one is a June 2021 executive order reinstating methane emission rules, and a bill to reduce methane emissions 90 percent by 2030. The easiest way to comply, is to close oil wells, which is where gas also comes from. Hence, low supply, higher oil prices too. And US crude is light sweet crude, which is the prime source of avgas. Heavy sour crude from Venezuela, Canada, and the Middle East is the main source of asphalt & lubricants. That type of crude oil is high in sulfur (sour) and isn't easy to use for the new low-sulfur diesel fuels. The cleanest fuels come from US produced shale oil deposits. Which are under pressure to close.

This isn't political commentary, this is the current state of the oil and gas industry as our government implements the latest agenda. I learn most of it through my work in converting large diesel engines to run on a combination of natural gas and diesel, cutting emissions and saving money. But, the large OEM's are now being enticed to try to skip gas, and go straight to electric drive via batteries. Which may work, some day, but not in the next 10 years, at least, if ever. Energy can be stored and used in various forms, but you always need an equivalent amount of energy to power a process. Currently, liquid fuels are 13 times more energy dense than the best battery technology. Loosely translated, your 120 gallon Monroy tanks hold 720 pounds of fuel. You would need 4300 pounds of batteries to equal that performance.

The energy crunch is global and hardly a result of any particular administration's agenda.  The reasons for the crunch are wildly varying: post-pandemic demand, US frackers cutting production, oil-to-gas switching for industrial processes, OPEC not expanding production, China's coal supply shifting from Australia to Europe, Europe selling coal to China and buying Indian reserves, Russian hording of liquified natural gas, etc, etc, etc.  In the US, the government has actually relaxed constraints on production (eg, excess methane fees) to try to incent more fracking production.

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3 hours ago, philiplane said:

The goal of the current administration, is to drive prices of fossil fuels high enough that "green" energy becomes not only competitive, but "cheaper". A secondary effect is a reduction in transportation & power generation emissions, as fuel use declines via demand collapse due to those higher prices.

The only flaw to this approach is that with energy costs that high, the economy will tank. As oil crosses the $100/barrel mark, consumers are forced to spend more money on electricity and fuels (and everything else that has been transported to stores) that would have gone to more consumer goods.  

Natural gas prices have already doubled, and those in the northern states that heat with gas can expect high prices and spot shortages this winter. This is due to the fact that nearly half our wells are offline since February, for a number of new reasons. Number one is a June 2021 executive order reinstating methane emission rules, and a bill to reduce methane emissions 90 percent by 2030. The easiest way to comply, is to close oil wells, which is where gas also comes from. Hence, low supply, higher oil prices too. And US crude is light sweet crude, which is the prime source of avgas. Heavy sour crude from Venezuela, Canada, and the Middle East is the main source of asphalt & lubricants. That type of crude oil is high in sulfur (sour) and isn't easy to use for the new low-sulfur diesel fuels. The cleanest fuels come from US produced shale oil deposits. Which are under pressure to close.

This isn't political commentary, this is the current state of the oil and gas industry as our government implements the latest agenda. I learn most of it through my work in converting large diesel engines to run on a combination of natural gas and diesel, cutting emissions and saving money. But, the large OEM's are now being enticed to try to skip gas, and go straight to electric drive via batteries. Which may work, some day, but not in the next 10 years, at least, if ever. Energy can be stored and used in various forms, but you always need an equivalent amount of energy to power a process. Currently, liquid fuels are 13 times more energy dense than the best battery technology. Loosely translated, your 120 gallon Monroy tanks hold 720 pounds of fuel. You would need 4300 pounds of batteries to equal that performance.

I agree that realistic electric propulsion for airplanes like ours has some definite hurdles with energy storage, but not quite as bad as you said.  Electric motors convert their available energy to thrust at something like ~90% efficiency while piston engines struggle to make ~<50%.  Lots of wasted energy leaving as heat.  So you can have less energy in batteries than avfuel yet still have equivalent power out/time.  Now it’s definitely true that fuel is currently a much lighter storage method than equivalent batteries.

https://www.flyingmag.com/hybrid-tech-electric-airliner/

Current commercially available batteries have around 1/50th of the energy density of hydrocarbon fuels. But that is not the only thing that matters. There is also the efficiency with which a motor uses that energy, and here electric systems far outshine internal combustion engines, converting three or four times as much of the energy in their “fuel” into useful work. If instead of energy coming in we look at power going out, the relative disadvantage of batteries drops from a hopeless-sounding 50:1 to a merely desperate 15:1.”

 

Edited by Ragsf15e
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3 hours ago, philiplane said:

The goal of the current administration, is to drive prices of fossil fuels high enough that "green" energy becomes not only competitive, but "cheaper". A secondary effect is a reduction in transportation & power generation emissions, as fuel use declines via demand collapse due to those higher prices.

The only flaw to this approach is that with energy costs that high, the economy will tank. As oil crosses the $100/barrel mark, consumers are forced to spend more money on electricity and fuels (and everything else that has been transported to stores) that would have gone to more consumer goods.  

Natural gas prices have already doubled, and those in the northern states that heat with gas can expect high prices and spot shortages this winter. This is due to the fact that nearly half our wells are offline since February, for a number of new reasons. Number one is a June 2021 executive order reinstating methane emission rules, and a bill to reduce methane emissions 90 percent by 2030. The easiest way to comply, is to close oil wells, which is where gas also comes from. Hence, low supply, higher oil prices too. And US crude is light sweet crude, which is the prime source of avgas. Heavy sour crude from Venezuela, Canada, and the Middle East is the main source of asphalt & lubricants. That type of crude oil is high in sulfur (sour) and isn't easy to use for the new low-sulfur diesel fuels. The cleanest fuels come from US produced shale oil deposits. Which are under pressure to close.

This isn't political commentary, this is the current state of the oil and gas industry as our government implements the latest agenda. I learn most of it through my work in converting large diesel engines to run on a combination of natural gas and diesel, cutting emissions and saving money. But, the large OEM's are now being enticed to try to skip gas, and go straight to electric drive via batteries. Which may work, some day, but not in the next 10 years, at least, if ever. Energy can be stored and used in various forms, but you always need an equivalent amount of energy to power a process. Currently, liquid fuels are 13 times more energy dense than the best battery technology. Loosely translated, your 120 gallon Monroy tanks hold 720 pounds of fuel. You would need 4300 pounds of batteries to equal that performance.

All refineries can process heavy sour crude and make just about anything out of it. The problem is it cost more to process, the Sulphur must be removed, which costs more and the heavier crude must be cracked more to get the lighter fractions, which costs more. The refineries pay a premium for oil that is lighter and sweeter then the standard crude (West Texas Intermediate, I think) and discount the price for heavier sour crudes. 

Edited by N201MKTurbo
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The only viable green airplane will be powered by an electric motor powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. this would be a sweet setup. The two big problems with this is fuel cells are horrendously expensive and there are no hydrogen wells. Hydrogen must be produced from something. Today most hydrogen is produced by a chemical process that releases a lot of CO2 and uses a lot of energy. There have been fuel cells produced that use hydrocarbon fuels, but they release lots of CO2.

I can't conceive of any green alternative that will ever be cheaper than what we have now.

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16 minutes ago, Air pirate said:

America was energy independent for the first time in 70 years just over a year ago.  I wonder what happened ?

Simple economics driven by less favorable geology as compared to most other OPEC producers.  The cost to find and produce Shale Oil is much higher than the unconsolidated sands in most Middle East reservoirs.  Shale Oil wells take many 10,000's of fracing horsepower, sand, water, chemicals, trucks, tankers, infrastructure. This is all high cost.  And Shale Oil wells have high depletion rates compared to most OPEC wells.  There is not a lot of current info but in 2016 it only cost Saudi on average about $9/bbl to drill and produce oil all costs in.  Kuwait, Iraq, Iran all around $10.  Even crappy inefficient Russia was only $19.  Shale Oil is closer to $30.   Canadian Oil Sands are essentially mining operations and even more costly.

There are some interesting reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico.  But the water is 10,000 ft. deep and hundreds of miles out.  The capital spend required is enormous.  So the cost per barrel if developed will be relatively high.  By contrast there are bigger fields off of Nigeria and other parts of Africa in shallower water so development costs are likely lower.

So in a price war (like in 2020 between Saudi and Russia) North America loses every time.  The easy cheap oil in the US, is long gone - Spindletop Texas (the stuff that flowed like Saudi still does) played out 100 years ago 

Add to this that most Shale Oil companies have struggled to make money and were negative cash flow even when prices were high.  Most were net debtors.  During the price war and Covid many went bankrupt.  A lot of Financial Institutions got burned bad and know that Saudi and OPEC could start the price war again.  It is like coal - just in a different stage.  It may have some good short term investment plays but given the push go more renewable, more efficient oil and gas is not a great long term investment.  Shale Oil investment declined and is slow to return - and probably won't return to pre- Price War levels.

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4 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

 

I can't conceive of any green alternative that will ever be cheaper than what we have now.

I believe your correct, but if we leave things alone and let free enterprise work, slowly and inexorably fossil fuel will become more and more expensive, and alternative sources of energy even if they don’t become less expensive will eventually become less expensive than fossil fuels

We will never run out of oil, it will just eventually get too expensive to burn.

The “green revolution” will happen, it’s inevitable.

Wife has decided to go back to work, her work is 40 miles away, so 80 miles a day.

So 80 miles a day x 5 = 400 a week or 1600 a month.

Current vehicle gets 17 mpg

1600 div by 17 = 94.1 gls of fuel a month x $3.50 a gl = $329 a month.

I have a Model 3 Tesla on order, the model 3 consumes somewhere between 20 and 25 kwh per 100 miles, based on what I can find out.

So 16 x 25 = 400 kwh per month. I used 25 to be conservative.

Anyway my electric rate is .13c per KWH if you take total bill and divide by kwh used, quoted rate is lower, but there are other fees.

Anyway 400kwh at 13c per kwh = $52 a month.

So to drive a Cadillac CTS-V 1600 miles cost $329 a month and a Tesla model 3 $52 a month. 

 

That is with no tax incentives or subsidies or whatever, assuming those numbers are correct how long will it take people to figure this out?

 

A “catch” is the total electrical generation of the US is 4 giga kwh, and according to Elon Musk if you choose to believe him to covert all personal transportation to electric will require an increase of 5 giga kwh, so we will have to more than double electrical production.

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4 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Simple economics driven by less favorable geology as compared to most other OPEC producers.  The cost to find and produce Shale Oil is much higher than the unconsolidated sands in most Middle East reservoirs.  Shale Oil wells take many 10,000's of fracing horsepower, sand, water, chemicals, trucks, tankers, infrastructure. This is all high cost.  And Shale Oil wells have high depletion rates compared to most OPEC wells.  There is not a lot of current info but in 2016 it only cost Saudi on average about $9/bbl to drill and produce oil all costs in.  Kuwait, Iraq, Iran all around $10.  Even crappy inefficient Russia was only $19.  Shale Oil is closer to $30.   Canadian Oil Sands are essentially mining operations and even more costly.

There are some interesting reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico.  But the water is 10,000 ft. deep and hundreds of miles out.  The capital spend required is enormous.  So the cost per barrel if developed will be relatively high.  By contrast there are bigger fields off of Nigeria and other parts of Africa in shallower water so development costs are likely lower.

So in a price war (like in 2020 between Saudi and Russia) North America loses every time.  The easy cheap oil in the US, is long gone - Spindletop Texas (the stuff that flowed like Saudi still does) played out 100 years ago 

Add to this that most Shale Oil companies have struggled to make money and were negative cash flow even when prices were high.  Most were net debtors.  During the price war and Covid many went bankrupt.  A lot of Financial Institutions got burned bad and know that Saudi and OPEC could start the price war again.  It is like coal - just in a different stage.  It may have some good short term investment plays but given the push go more renewable, more efficient oil and gas is not a great long term investment.  Shale Oil investment declined and is slow to return - and probably won't return to pre- Price War levels.

Full Disclosure, I'm a peak oiler.

You mention that our easy oil ran out long ago. Well it isn't all gone, but nobody has found any new reservoirs in a long time and I doubt they ever will. The point is that the Saudi reservoirs are getting long in the tooth too and they will run out some day. The same with all the other big reservoirs. The USA has lots of shale oil that can be produced by horizontal drilling and hydro fracturing aka fracking. You are absolutely correct that these shale wells cost a lot more to drill and they burn out fast. When they drill them they will usually drill 10 or so horizontal lines, frack one and work it till it runs out, in a few years or less, then they come back in and frack the next one, and so on until they are all fracked. 

There are still wells in the US that are producing oil for less than $5/bbl, but they are rare and dropping like flies. Fracking can produce oil at about $30/bbl. We can frack for another few decades before it plays out. 

After it all pays out, all we will be left with is the green new deal, without the government mandates. 

So, if the far left environmentalists, could just have some patience, they will get what they want. Without the green new deal, they will get it faster.

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2 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

I believe your correct, but if we leave things alone and let free enterprise work, slowly and inexorably fossil fuel will become more and more expensive, and alternative sources of energy even if they don’t become less expensive will eventually become less expensive than fossil fuels

We will never run out of oil, it will just eventually get too expensive to burn.

The “green revolution” will happen, it’s inevitable.

Wife has decided to go back to work, her work is 40 miles away, so 80 miles a day.

So 80 miles a day x 5 = 400 a week or 1600 a month.

Current vehicle gets 17 mpg

1600 div by 17 = 94.1 gls of fuel a month x $3.50 a gl = $329 a month.

I have a Model 3 Tesla on order, the model 3 consumes somewhere between 20 and 25 kwh per 100 miles, based on what I can find out.

So 16 x 25 = 400 kwh per month. I used 25 to be conservative.

Anyway my electric rate is .13c per KWH if you take total bill and divide by kwh used, quoted rate is lower, but there are other fees.

Anyway 400kwh at 13c per kwh = $52 a month.

So to drive a Cadillac CTS-V 1600 miles cost $329 a month and a Tesla model 3 $52 a month. 

 

That is with no tax incentives or subsidies or whatever, assuming those numbers are correct how long will it take people to figure this out?

 

A “catch” is the total electrical generation of the US is 4 giga kwh, and according to Elon Musk if you choose to believe him to covert all personal transportation to electric will require an increase of 5 giga kwh, so we will have to more than double electrical production.

You are absolutely correct that we will never run out of oil, but the day the oil industry cannot meet demand, the mud will hit the fan. The price of fuel will skyrocket.

I often ask people how much gas will cost before they stop using it. They never answer the question. they say things like "I need my gas, they can't charge more than $xx" I ask "what if gas was $20/gal?" they just say "They cant charge that much". 

When gas gets to be a purely demand driven commodity, its cost will be purely driven by what people are willing to pay for it. It will be just like the early 1900s the rich people will be riding around in their limos and everyone else will be on public transportation or horseback. Buy some spats now, you will need them.

Enough of this horse shit, Let's all go flying tonight!

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