Top ten weather questions...what are they?

[cliffy]

6 hours ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

Wish that was true, but sadly it isn't.  In fact, it's one of those many myths.  Experience means nothing unless you know what you are looking at.  In fact the NTSB released a safety notice in October 2005 that states, 

"It appears that pilots generally require formal training to obtain weather knowledge and cannot be expected to acquire it on their own as they simply gain more flight experience."

Can't underscore this enough.  Mother Nature doesn't care how many hours are in your logbook.

There's "experience" with two or three years under the belt and then there's "experience" with 4 or 5 decades in all kinds of weather and all over the world. 

And I'll say it again (with 5 decades of experience from big iron to J-3s)

"All the training in the world can't replace experience."

Training is needed but until its applied in real world experiences its just training. 

Being "trained" for a CAT III 600/600 approach doesn't replace the reality of what one learns when one does them for real. 

The same with weather. Just because one can name all the major cloud groups doesn't mean that will translate into a safe flight until someone does it and gains the "experience" of each type.

I stated a long time ago that one is not a safe pilot ( including all the training) until one is tempered. A pilot is not "tempered" until he does something in flight (with all his training) that scares the hell out of him and he knows he did it to himself. After that flying takes on an entirely different perspective

ITS CALLED    "EXPERIENCE"

Call me when you have a few more years under your belt and see if your myopic vision has changed.

Edited February 26, 2021 by cliffy

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 2/26/2021 at 6:29 PM, cliffy said:

There's "experience" with two or three years under the belt and then there's "experience" with 4 or 5 decades in all kinds of weather and all over the world. 

And I'll say it again (with 5 decades of experience from big iron to J-3s)

"All the training in the world can't replace experience."

Training is needed but until its applied in real world experiences its just training. 

Being "trained" for a CAT III 600/600 approach doesn't replace the reality of what one learns when one does them for real. 

The same with weather. Just because one can name all the major cloud groups doesn't mean that will translate into a safe flight until someone does it and gains the "experience" of each type.

I stated a long time ago that one is not a safe pilot ( including all the training) until one is tempered. A pilot is not "tempered" until he does something in flight (with all his training) that scares the hell out of him and he knows he did it to himself. After that flying takes on an entirely different perspective

ITS CALLED    "EXPERIENCE"

Call me when you have a few more years under your belt and see if your myopic vision has changed.

Notice that I did not say that experience isn't important. Actually what works the best is having a pilot to mentor with.  I do that for dozens of pilots from a weather perspective. 

Scaring the hell out of yourself is a BAD approach to learning.  In fact, it teaches you nothing.  When I hear "older" pilots say things to "younger" pilots such as, "just get out there and fly in some real weather and you will figure it out" is when I turn away and shake my head.  It has and will always be a recipe for disaster.  In my 40+ years, I have heard it all and have talked to thousands of pilots about weather over the last two decades.  And the common thread is not the lack of experience, but it is the lack of knowledge and training. 99% of pilots are not trained properly when it comes to weather...so it doesn't matter how much experience you have, those experiences are not going to suddenly generate knowledge.   

So I am not disagreeing with you...but experience isn't the gold star to making good decisions...it's knowledge that leads you down the path to making the best decisions and reasonable judgement that turns into valuable experience.  Why?  Because every single weather system is different and to think otherwise is just an open manhole waiting for you to fall into.  To think that previous successes in flight make better decisions on the next flight is just missing the point and is a dangerous mindset simply because risk is addictive.  How do I know that?  Because I am a student of weather and I have studied why pilots kill themselves in weather-related accidents and it's due to a lack of knowledge...I worked 3.5 years on this topic to earn my PhD.  Why does a 12,000+ hour ATP and flight instructor decide to depart in an airplane without a certified ice protection system with two other people on board and attempt to climb through a stratocumulus deck loaded with ice?  Did his experience protect him?  No. Did his lack of knowledge defeat him? YES!  See Cirrus Birmingham icing accident.     

And from a knowledge perspective, I'm not talking about rote memory and naming cloud types.  That's not the knowledge I am speaking of.  It's understanding why SHRA, VCSH and TSRA are all a form of convection. It's understanding why icing is still very likely in clouds producing snow.  It's understanding that lenticular clouds are more often a sign of smooth air than not.  It's knowing why a forecast for non-convective LLWS isn't a forecast for turbulence. These are the things that will allow you not to need to do a CAT III approach. These are the tools that will minimize your exposure to dangerous turbulence or airframe icing, not test the waters to gain experience dealing with them.  No amount of experience is going to teach you how to do that.  I don't need to have touched a hot stove to know that it will burn me. A seasoned or tempered pilot should get there through a concerted effort of education and training.       

So I'll stick with the NTSB's safety study which was very thorough.  You don't gain knowledge simply because there are more hours in the logbook. Knowledge is needed.  Education is the key to a long flying career.  You read, take courses, go to seminars, and you get training from an expert.  Then you apply that knowledge during your preflight planning and while in flight.  That's the experience that will keep you in the game for a long, long time.  That's the foundation that works, not the other way around.  Experience without critical knowledge only breeds risk.  Bank on it - the accident statistics scream it.  And when you are ready, send me your address and I'll send you my new book on weather for you to mull over in your spare time...the knowledge contained within will make you a better pilot, guaranteed or your money back! 

To anyone reading this, experience is not the answer!  It's knowledge and training that is backed up by experience - that is the valuable asset.   

         

Edited March 9, 2021 by Scott Dennstaedt