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When I purchased my M20K in 2011, it always seemed there were about 150 Mooneys for sale on Controller.  I get there are more user friendly or free options for listing one's aircraft...

For the most part of 2020, the number of Mooneys listed has hovered around 90.  Today? 61

What a thin market...

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Good news!  (In the US... the rest of the world may be on a slightly different track) According to the economy... times are good.   (The economy is separate from all the people, my heart goes o

I live in a world of bulleted lists.   A 33 point bulleted list is quite impressive!   Record? 

When you find out, let the Federal Reserve Board know because they are perplexed as you.  

General Aviation must be up in general. 15 years ago, the wait for a hangar at my airport was 4-5 years. When I started back into aviation in 2016, there were around 50 empty hangars, now only 5-6.


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3 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

What do you think is the cause of this Parker?

Before COVID, it was clear that flight schools were buying any trainer they could get their hands on.  Someone who used to spend $40,000 on a C172 now had to pay $70,000.  So for $70,000 or less they could get an airplane that's more usable for travel (M20C, F, etc.).  So everyone went to Mooneys or similar.

In addition, BasicMed has brought many pilots back into flying (myself included since I don't have to risk a denial).

Post-COVID, I've heard of everything as to why people are getting into GA aircraft ownership:

  • "The airline schedules are so messed up that my wife got tired of going backwards an hour to go forward 2 hours, so she said buy a Bonanza."
  • "I always wanted to learn to fly and figured I might as well do it now while the world is locked down."
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5 minutes ago, warren.huisman said:

General Aviation must be up in general. 15 years ago, the wait for a hangar at my airport was 4-5 years. When I started back into aviation in 2016, there were around 50 empty hangars, now only 5-6.


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Your airport has empty hangars?!  We’re on long wait times around here.

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3 minutes ago, Parker_Woodruff said:

In addition, BasicMed has brought many pilots back into flying (myself included since I don't have to risk a denial).

Interesting...............I never though of that aspect. 

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Just now, Ragsf15e said:

Your airport has empty hangars?!  We’re on long wait times around here.

We have approximately 10 vacancies at SMX.  The cool thing, seems like more Mooneys are showing up as hangar tenants!

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1 minute ago, MooneyMitch said:

We have approximately 10 vacancies at SMX.  The cool thing, seems like more Mooneys are showing up as hangar tenants!

Interesting.  Nice airport in a nice place too.  I guess it makes sense, there are less airplanes and pilots in service than there were 25 years ago.  There’s probably vacancy somewhere.  

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1 minute ago, Ragsf15e said:

Interesting.  Nice airport in a nice place too.  I guess it makes sense, there are less airplanes and pilots in service than there were 25 years ago.  There’s probably vacancy somewhere.  

Love my airport!  I have seen a slow, but steady increase in hangar availability at SMX from my time on the field [beginning in 1986].  When I purchased my first Mooney ['67 F], the hangar list was approximately 1 year long..............my estimation, the increase in hangar availability has increased more rapidly over the last 10 years. 

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We have approximately 10 vacancies at SMX.  The cool thing, seems like more Mooneys are showing up as hangar tenants!

Here in the southeast you’ll have a better chance of seeing a unicorn than an empty hangar.
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Through Savvy, since the pandemic, we've had a record number of pre-buy clients and have had a lot of trouble scheduling timely pre-purchase inspections with many shops because of increased demand. The GA used market has been really busy this past year. Didn't Jimmy recently say he had a record year as well last year?  Flight training was also huge this past year. 

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9 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:


Here in the southeast you’ll have a better chance of seeing a unicorn than an empty hangar.

Same here in Texas... Very hard to fine one and the waits are long.. 

-Don 

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The paucity of travel and recreation associated with travel has led to record savings rates for Americans. It is currently 33%, the highest since the metric was started in 1960. The result is a boom in housing, cars, boats and yes airplanes.

I live on a lake with a dock. I have unsolicited offers for my house, brokers wanting to buy my boat and some calls on my Mooney. There is simply a huge amount of cash (about 6 trillion) out there ready and wanting to buy something...anything.

 

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I restarted flying again in 2019 (after almost 20 years) , got my medical (after heart failure) and bought my Mooneys after wanting one for years. I wanted to fly again and I think many are coming back for various reasons. Insurance is a big hindrance for those who buy but did not investigate first... Can be a big surprise... 

 

I love flying again ;o) 

-Don 

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13 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

There is simply a huge amount of cash (about 6 trillion) out there ready and wanting to buy something...anything.

Which begs the question where is the massive inflation that would normally follow such overabundance of money hitting the wild... Not to rain on anyone's parade, but I've been wondering that for longer than I care to admit...

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28 minutes ago, kortopates said:

Through Savvy, since the pandemic, we've had a record number of pre-buy clients and have had a lot of trouble scheduling timely pre-purchase inspections with many shops because of increased demand. The GA used market has been really busy this past year. Didn't Jimmy recently say he had a record year as well last year?  Flight training was also huge this past year. 

And I thought everyone was staying in the house and watching sports!  :D

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I've watched the supply slowly drop as well. The 90 to 61 on controller that happened overnight I'm guessing is also a removal of old aircraft that have been on there a long time. Maybe a new system is in place or they are requiring a new payment to stay on there. So 30 dropped off. But still if that 30 were baked into the original numbers, we do have a smaller supply.

That's good for our airframe values.

-Seth

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20 minutes ago, hammdo said:

I restarted flying again in 2019 (after almost 20 years) , got my medical (after heart failure) and bought my Mooneys after wanting one for years. I wanted to fly again and I think many are coming back for various reasons. Insurance is a big hindrance for those who buy but did not investigate first... Can be a big surprise... 

 

I love flying again ;o) 

-Don 

Congratulations Don................awesome!!

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5 minutes ago, tmo said:

Which begs the question where is the massive inflation that would normally follow such overabundance of money hitting the wild... Not to rain on anyone's parade, but I've been wondering that for longer than I care to admit...

When you find out, let the Federal Reserve Board know because they are perplexed as you.

 

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Just now, Seth said:

I've watched the supply slowly drop as well. The 90 to 61 on controller that happened overnight I'm guessing is also a removal of old aircraft that have been on there a long time. Maybe a new system is in place or they are requiring a new payment to stay on there. So 30 dropped off. But still if that 30 were baked into the original numbers, we do have a smaller supply.

That's good for our airframe values.

-Seth

Ok, so hopefully I'm wrong that the insurance premium rates are not an issue..................especially with all the MONEY floating around out there waiting to be spent! :D

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Seems like Controller and TAP both do periodic cleanups of their listings. I notice them go offline in batches.

Another thing I've noticed is that the supply of solid airplanes has dropped, so that 90 -> 61 seems more like 30 really good planes to just a handful. What's left are a lot of duds, either because the plane itself is sketchy or maybe the seller has unrealistic expectations. (A few good ones are out there but they get snapped up right away! Literally go from posted to "under contract" within a day or two.)

It's not just Mooneys, either. I'm tracking other airframes and the whole market seems like this.

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Good news!  (In the US... the rest of the world may be on a slightly different track)

According to the economy... times are good.  
(The economy is separate from all the people, my heart goes out to the people affected by the pandemic...)

1) Parker’s observation is all interest rate dependent...

2) Keep your eyes on Federal Reserve Chairman J Powel 

3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell

4) Interest rates are set to control two things...

  • Unemployment
  • Inflation

5) Covid has generated a lot of job loss... around the world...

6) Inflation hasn’t begun in earnest yet...

7) Stay healthy...

8) Stay employed...

9) Don’t over commit...

10) Get the loan needed, and pay it off over decades...

11) hoping inflation occurs mildly after you have all your loans...

12) Money IS cheap... compared to anything in our life time... (some countries have gone with negative interest rates... something to be avoided if able)

13) The 10year interest rate has gone above 1% this week... a tiny canary in a giant coal mine...

14) for comparison, ask any of your friends that have bought or refinanced a home lately...

15) car, home, plane Inventory is limited, and low...

16) Paying over asking price is the norm... when competition shows up...

17) competition can be one other buyer...

18) J. Powell was clear about his thoughts recently... they aren’t thinking about... thinking about raising the interest rate....

19) The interest rate in question is called the overnight federal funds rate... the cost for one bank to borrow money from the fed...   

20) your bank will then raise their rate to lend you money...

21) GM will easily loan money to their car customers for about 3% or so... for five or so years... no money down...

22) Cost of money is low, interest rate based savings accounts aren’t weaning anything... bonds start to become interesting, but only when interest rates come up off the floor...

23) Corporate earnings have a tendency to be outsized in this environment... so speculation tends to drive markets higher...

24) Watch for the party to peak...   if your teenage kids are telling you about the fractional ownership of stocks that they bought on RobinHood...  that may be a sign...   :)

25) Markets have a tendency to be strong for a really long time after economic weaknesses have come in...

26) Its all good... until it isn’t...

27) With all that covered... value is still the driving force... defining the underlying value of an individual airplane has a few methods...  

28) None are more important than the PPI... whether you do it yourself, or buy the PPI from an MSC... just know the value of what it is you are buying...

29) There aren’t a lot of Os for sale either...

30) A corollary to the interest rate adding to the expense of all things in life... is the cost of gasoline...

31) Gas prices fell pretty low this year, as the price of crude oil futures went through the floor earlier... the extra savings in gasoline is much like getting a tax cut...  yay!

32) There is lots of competition in the gasoline market...

  • various countries competing on the supply side.
  • horizontal drilling doing so well.
  • Mike using his Tesla.  :)
  • People cutting back on going in to work... (work from home)

31) Congrats for reading this far... what is the worst inflation rate you remember seeing, when was that?

32) what was the worst price of gasoline at the time?

33) Do you remember the cost of crude at about $150 bbl...?

PP thoughts only, not even an amateur finance guy...

Best regards,

-a-

 

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