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State Of General Aviation


Misiu02

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Living the dream...

1) Get pilots license...

2) Get Mooney airplane...

3) Get IR to improve on the experience...

4) Get CL just because... you know you like aviation challenges... and there are only so many to achieve... or get 

  • Tail dragger sign-off
  • Glider (who needs 100LL?)
  • rotary wing
  • Powered parachute
  • Parachute
  • From a list of other aviation things MSers do...

5) Get Hangar Home... to house your Mooney aircraft nearby...

6) Work on your A&P license while building an experimental aircraft...

How into aviation are you..?

There is probably somebody (or many people) around here like you...

 

Best regards,

-a-

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3 hours ago, rogerl said:

 

100ll.png.ea7a95356fa3456f1abdd7b479c6ea79.png

"Through a financial cost‐of‐service analysis, they determined a basis for all the direct and indirect costs associated with fuel delivery; however, fuel prices are notset based on this analysis. Instead, the FBO manager watches the retail prices at airports that compete with CYS for fuel customers and sets the retail price at a value that covers costs and provides the best profit margin."

Well, to be fair, the fuel seller makes dollars in their bank account, not percentages.

20% of nothing is nothing and 20% of $10,000 is a lot of money.

If I sold 100,000 gallons in 2016 and 100,000 gallons in 2012, I'd want to make the same $63,000-$64,000 margin.

I imagine demand for 100LL is its own unique bear...

I don't think I'd want to give up 32.8% of my margin (in dollars) just because wholesale prices decreased by that much.

Overhead (land lease, insurance, staff, etc.) doesn't change just because fuel prices change.

 

I say all this while also noting my business is largely (by necessity) percentage based, with an occasional flat fee instead of commission for large commercial accounts.

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6 hours ago, rogerl said:

Regarding 100ll pricing (and non-consumable aviation-related tech and mech), it is my unlearned opinion that there is a healthy helping of gouging.  Sure, there are regulatory and risk issues to deal with, but much of what I see is so far out of the realm of reality it's not funny.  A captive market - although as evidenced by pricing of water-per-unit to my home: oh, everyone is not using enough water so we have to raise prices ... or, oh, there is a very high demand so ... well, you know that good ol' supposed capitalist principle of 'supply and demand' ... except when it doesn't fit our (desires for a new 488 italia) ...

... when reviewing the following keep in mind that feedstock is now mucho cheaper than it was in 2016 ... couple of cents for TEL, couple of cents for transpo/regulatory hurdles ... and you have a fat margin ... keeping those porta-potties serviced ...  we are paying $4 to $6 now ...

(all due respect to @carusoam) ...

Note the trend from a random source here for the profits:

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_192AppendixA.pdf

100ll.png.ea7a95356fa3456f1abdd7b479c6ea79.png

"Through a financial cost‐of‐service analysis, they determined a basis for all the direct and indirect costs associated with fuel delivery; however, fuel prices are notset based on this analysis. Instead, the FBO manager watches the retail prices at airports that compete with CYS for fuel customers and sets the retail price at a value that covers costs and provides the best profit margin."

That chart does not show profit margin.  Based on the paragraph prior to the chart, that's gross margin.  And even then they screwed up the math.  Gross margin is really 18% ((Rev-COGS)/Rev.)  It's not profit margin since it doesn't include any other costs (credit card fees, taxes, fuel management systems, and insurance of the fuel farm) other than cost of product (COGS).  I don't think that author has any clue what margin (gross, net, EBITDA, whatever) even means in financial analysis.  BTW, a GM of 18% is really not very good.  2%-5% of that will be eaten by credit card fees alone.

A lot of description of general market forces and competition dynamics in that article.  A+ on that.  An 'F' on an actual profit analysis on fuel sales and whether FBOs even make a profit on fuel sales.  Looks to be written by a high schooler.  

William

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NJ has one airport whose fuel supply doesn’t follow supply/demand/profit margin.... at least not in the usual sense...

The airport owner has a self service fuel station, and the 100LL is the lowest cost around...

I guess this is called a loss leader..?

They have an FBO and mechanic shop that are separately owned business by other people on the field and lots of airplanes tied down outside...

Central Jersey...  47N

Fuzzy details at best, but the fuel price is as low as it gets... price is published on the internet...

Best regards,

-a-

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I'm sorry to everyone if I came off dramatic and condescending.  I'm an I Banker and write a lot of financial analysis and read even more.  The analysis was weak for lots of reasons.  

Btw, Signature stock (SIG.L) is relatively cheap right now.  They gouge more than anyone.  Their GMs are about 17%.  Normalized net profit margins are around 6% (when they're profitable).  I doubt a small FBO is getting that kind of profitability.

William

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18 minutes ago, carusoam said:

Today’s SS price for 100LL in Central Jersey...  $3.80/gal

And other similar prices nearish by...

-a-

 

02D65FAC-854B-4A1A-8E09-A7E24F7E7918.png

Sure, but Signature at Morristown gets $6.60. 
 

Im a cheap gas kind of guy. When I was flying Brice’s 310 to Pennsylvania, I was pumping 100 gallons of gas in a downpour with no rain coat. But it was $3.50/gal!

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I am doing my part to keep GA alive.  I was not financially stable enough in my 20’s or early 30’s to spend what I do every weekend on flying (wrenching on exotic cars during an economic crash was not a cash cow). My kids are still young enough to fit in a C model but they are quickly becoming long-body sized and I can’t legally leave them behind in place of fuel..... I didn’t do this for a career but to become capable of using a plane to visit our family which is now a minimum 3 hour drive away. If my current career path dried up, I would not hesitate to get my commercial and start flying for a job, even if it’s flying cancelled checks (I know, that’s basically obsolete now). But aviation has been in my blood for my entire life, so I’m willing to do what it takes now to keep it in my life.  

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Speaking of Morristown...

That is one of the homes of American Flyers... where I earned my IR... :) (between Mooneys)

and Exxon Gasoline was headquarters there until somebody absconded with their CEO... (held for ransom)

and Honeywell who is still there.... parent company of a few aviation products from PT6 turbines to lowly BK...

 

Flying too close to NYC... gets exponentially more expensive....

Central Jersey has a nice restaurant right on the edge of its property... fill your tank, and your plane’s tank, on a CB’s budget...

Best regards,

-a-

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29 minutes ago, carusoam said:

Speaking of Morristown...

That is one of the homes of American Flyers... where I earned my IR... :) (between Mooneys)

and Exxon Gasoline was headquarters there until somebody absconded with their CEO... (held for ransom)

and Honeywell who is still there.... parent company of a few aviation products from PT6 turbines to lowly BK...

 

Flying too close to NYC... gets exponentially more expensive....

Central Jersey has a nice restaurant right on the edge of its property... fill your tank, and your plane’s tank, on a CB’s budget...

Best regards,

-a-

Maybe I’ll fly out and visit one of these days. You will notice it isn’t colored in on my map.

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Meh.

Millennials and post millennials are far more entertained by Instagram, tiktok, millions of other goofiness than flying, scuba diving, building anything, carpentry, machine shop, aquariums, and a million other pursuits requiring developing a skill. It’s too hard!!!! ...the “spectator” and “critic” generation.

Some salaries have risen to ungodly amounts while many of the generation continue to live mom and dad comfortably into their 30’s...and mom and dad ain’t buying them no airplane. Short attention span, ADD, idealism and fear. Ugh.

I don’t know that I agree that flying is inherently unaffordable. One can buy an Ercoupe for less than $20k, and other models are in the same range. Even an older 4 seat Piper can be had in the 30’s functional and airworthy. You don’t need a GTN and AP to fly. In LA you can park a plane at some airports for $35 a month. 7 gallons an hour isn’t expensive flying. Now many millennials and post wouldn’t be seen on anything less than a Cirrus, let alone something “like a G6” to coin a song...

Growing up people used to have crass jokes about “spatially gifted” (read full-sized) women being like mopeds - a lot of fun, but do you want to be seen riding one? An Ercoupe or Piper just doesn’t fit the image of many who live the Instagram life...

40-50 flying hours for a license is just too long for some in the Twitter generation.

Besides, flying from point a to b? Why not like, Uber or Lyft? Doesn’t grandpa fly one of those a“ little” Cessnas? They couldn’t tell the difference between a 150 and a P210/310/340/337. And it probably wouldn’t be worth explaining. Don’t those little airplanes like fall out of the sky?

Children are our future - remember that.

To me, that’s the state of GA. I don’t see GA new airplane numbers growing, let alone exponentially. Low cost new airplanes? Yeahno-remember the $170k sport pilot seaplane that took a zillion deposits? With trailer, the Icon A5 scratches a cool half a mill now for a 2 passenger sport pilot bird. Any cheap GA birds in the horizon? It’s not even a liability issue anymore, or recouping the cost of certification - marketing people see the anchored prices of single engine GA planes, rotax powered or otherwise, and while the engine may be cheap, or the cost of manufacturing, or even certification, no new airplanes means our little DINKs will preserve most of their value or appreciate.

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Generally, GA is as robust as it has been over the last 20 years.  I see millennials and post millennials learning to fly both as a profession and for pleasure.  I also know of people who are at or near retirement learning to fly.  The demographic that I see learning to fly is all over the place.  Make no mistake, the numbers of people learning to fly are down over the last 50 years.  That's understandable given most publications on the general cost of living show that cost of living increases have been outstripping income increases for many decades.  

Average 30 year old makes less than $50k pre tax.  Net after tax and healthcare (assuming they get a really cheap healthcare plan) is $35k.  Subtract out rent (avg. in US is $1000/mo.) and a modest car car payment, car insurance, food, and saving less than 10% of salary does not leave a lot left overReality is not what you see on Reality TV shows.

Also, most other hobbies don't cost $10k (cost of flight training for a Private ticket) just to get in the door.  

Btw, how many times have I read here when someone inquires about the cost of owning a Mooney does someone respond with, "if you have to ask, you can't afford it"?  Is that type of response encouraging or discouraging?  

Last Sat. night I was #6 for departure.  Half were single pistons, half were jets. There were three piston singles behind me.  Seems pretty busy to me.

The airport I regularly go to an hour outside of town has a modest flight school that is busy.  3-5 planes flying at any one time.  Half those students are people learning for pleasure.  Seems pretty busy to me.

I don't see GA dying.  I see it as flat and continuing that way for the foreseeable future.   Btw, isn't the Young Eagles program pretty successful/busy?  Isn't that a halfway decent indicator of interest in aviation?

I have only one response for anyone who blames the world's problems on millennials.....O.K. Boomer.  It goes both ways.

William

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49 minutes ago, philip_g said:

Average millennial also has almost 30k in student loan debt.

Do really more than 50% of the population take out student loans? Do even that many go to college? I'd think that the ones that did end up making noticeably more than $50k/year. Genuinely interested, as I reminisce of my days at UT Austin.

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1 hour ago, philip_g said:

Average millennial also has almost 30k in student loan debt. I'm guessing that's another $300 or so out of their monthly budget. I work with and train a lot of millennials in a career with astounding responsibility and complexity. As a whole, my impression is they're better people than my generation (x). Their priorities are just different, nothing is "their fault" because of it.

I teach those millennials in the courses they pay so handsomely for.  I hope its worth it.  I actually think it is, I know quite a few who, on the basis of the piece of paper they got from taking courses offered by me and my colleagues got really good jobs that would easily allow them to pay off whatever debts by which they were encumbered.  

There is nothing whatsoever wrong with them.  They are no worse nor any better than the generation before them.  They will do just fine.

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2 hours ago, WilliamR said:

Generally, GA is as robust as it has been over the last 20 years.  I see millennials and post millennials learning to fly both as a profession and for pleasure.  I also know of people who are at or near retirement learning to fly.  The demographic that I see learning to fly is all over the place.  Make no mistake, the numbers of people learning to fly are down over the last 50 years.  That's understandable given most publications on the general cost of living show that cost of living increases have been outstripping income increases for many decades.  

Average 30 year old makes less than $50k pre tax.  Net after tax and healthcare (assuming they get a really cheap healthcare plan) is $35k.  Subtract out rent (avg. in US is $1000/mo.) and a modest car car payment, car insurance, food, and saving less than 10% of salary does not leave a lot left overReality is not what you see on Reality TV shows.

Also, most other hobbies don't cost $10k (cost of flight training for a Private ticket) just to get in the door.  

Btw, how many times have I read here when someone inquires about the cost of owning a Mooney does someone respond with, "if you have to ask, you can't afford it"?  Is that type of response encouraging or discouraging?  

Last Sat. night I was #6 for departure.  Half were single pistons, half were jets. There were three piston singles behind me.  Seems pretty busy to me.

The airport I regularly go to an hour outside of town has a modest flight school that is busy.  3-5 planes flying at any one time.  Half those students are people learning for pleasure.  Seems pretty busy to me.

I don't see GA dying.  I see it as flat and continuing that way for the foreseeable future.   Btw, isn't the Young Eagles program pretty successful/busy?  Isn't that a halfway decent indicator of interest in aviation?

I have only one response for anyone who blames the world's problems on millennials.....O.K. Boomer.  It goes both ways.

William

Boomer engaging in three...two...one: Two children.  Both now adults.  Working professionals.  First got through undergrad in 3.5.  Earned Masters and works in a career that pays back part of student loan debt as incentive to come on board.  <$5k remaining in SLD.  Second took 5 years to graduate.  Re-paid his and he and spouse (homeowners) just repaid her loan debt.  

Yes, I DO “BLAME” an individual for taking out loan debt and complaining that they can’t repay it.  Talk to the hand on that.  Repay your debt.  If necessary restructure debt.  If Government wants to cut interest on student loans to 1/2% I am good with that...but by God pay the friggin principle of debt you undertook voluntarily.  End of friggin’ story.  Politicians pandering to youth with “free money” is b.s. and a NON-STARTER.

I live in a state where balanced budgets are required in the constitution.  Federal Government’s taking on of debt is unsustainable.  THIS Boomer is A.O.K. With mandating a balanced budget amendment and the austerity that would create.

With regard to world problems...There is plenty of “blame” to go around there...

Blaming Millennials is NOT a hobby.  I judge each individual on an individual basis and reject “categories” the same way I reject stereotypes.  You whine about loan debt to me and I will laugh in your face.  I don’t mean just student loans...I mean ANY loans.

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2 hours ago, philip_g said:

Average millennial also has almost 30k in student loan debt. I'm guessing that's another $300 or so out of their monthly budget. I work with and train a lot of millennials in a career with astounding responsibility and complexity. As a whole, my impression is they're better people than my generation (x). Their priorities are just different, nothing is "their fault" because of it.

“Their priorities are different so nothing is their fault”.  Please explain.  I can’t wait to hear the details...

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3 hours ago, philip_g said:

Average millennial also has almost 30k in student loan debt. I'm guessing that's another $300 or so out of their monthly budget. I work with and train a lot of millennials in a career with astounding responsibility and complexity. As a whole, my impression is they're better people than my generation (x). Their priorities are just different, nothing is "their fault" because of it.

In my job, I am constantly working with a new crop of 18-27 year old somethings.  I teach at an engineering emphasis university.  I can say every year of my career I keep meeting new young and inspiring and inspired people that every year renews my optimism for the future.  I am not saying every single one of them is showing brilliance and depth yet but almost everyone of them has some kind of special spark, and that spark is different in each one.  A few have gotten into flying and I have known some students training to be pilots on the side, and not just from aeronautical engineering major.  But many others have as many other interests and priorities as there are students in this little town.  I don't buy for one second the classic rant that "kid's these days..." ...fill it in with a stereotype...the same stereotype the greatest generation had for the boomers in the 60s, and the generations of older and younger people before them.  What would Mr Potter say to George Bailey?  Greatest gen, silent gen, baby boomer, gen x, millennial, gen y, gen z...which are you....I am an early brand on the gen x.   At least the several thousand that come through here each year, would inspire anyone on this board if we had a chance to get to know them, and see them just launching into whatever of many many different paths catches their self decided priorities and earns their energy.

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24 minutes ago, philip_g said:

it's not their fault YOUR hobby is dying because it's not THEIR priority.

 

Jesus, aren't you missing a trump superspreader event somewhere? Getting the rona helps the economy out a lot. Maybe you can get together and cry about how it's not fair we let people of color vote.

I thought this forum went out of their way in their terms of service to avoid political brattle.  
 

While this was not aimed at me, this post certainly seems out of line.  

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About eight years ago I spent a little while teaching at DeVry in Phoenix.   One of the many reasons I stopped teaching there was that, according to discussions with the students, they were typically getting out of there with about $100k debt loads.   This was for electronic and medical equipment technicians, not engineering students.   DeVry makes it very easy for students to accumulate debt, and their programs are expensive.   Can't afford it?   No problem, just sign here.   At that time the salaries that they could expect to start at after leaving the program would still make it very difficult to service those debt loads.  Obviously no counselor or advisor at the school was going to steer them away from the debt load.

I'll +1 that the kids are going to be fine.   Until this year (virus interruption) I was volunteering every year as a judge at the FIRST Robotics tournaments (high school), and every few years at the International Science and Engineering Fair when it comes to Phoenix.   I've also volunteered a fair amount at a local teen safety driving survival school run by some friends I race with.   These have all given me exposure to a wide variety of kids from all kinds of backgrounds and I gotta say I have zero worries for their ability to handle the future, and I think we'll be in better hands when they get in charge.   If anything, I'm embarrassed for the conditions that the previous generations have left for them to deal with.

 

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