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A mountain of security issues come with that...

and nefarious bit coin transactions...
 

Doesn’t seem very practical...

How many planes can a remote pilot/operator be in charge of? (Saving the costs of a usual flight crew)

 

Great advertisement value if you are a remote control software supplier.... :)

Best regards,

-a-

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1 hour ago, carusoam said:

A mountain of security issues come with that...

and nefarious bit coin transactions...
 

Doesn’t seem very practical...

How many planes can a remote pilot/operator be in charge of? (Saving the costs of a usual flight crew)

 

Great advertisement value if you are a remote control software supplier.... :)

Best regards,

-a-

Excellent points.  I hadn't thought of the associated security risks.  Taking the pilot out of harms way can change the mission.

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  • 4 weeks later...

What could possibly go wrong. Technology will solve all ills of the 'unreliable' pilot... 

I'm sure they'll get close but the first crash that is 100% no human on board or someone hacks the system... they're not ready to deal with that yet so, they'll need to ironed out that totally first. Not saying it's not going to happen, just there are a ton of variables - human passanger being a major one. I could see maybe unmanned cargo first. 

My prediction is its going to happen and cars will probably be first. 

Then when crashes happen, what cost 'value' will they put on a human life... Its going to be interesting to see.  

-Don 

 

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36 minutes ago, hammdo said:

What could possibly go wrong. Technology will solve all ills of the 'unreliable' pilot... 

I'm sure they'll get close but the first crash that is 100% no human on board or someone hacks the system... they're not ready to deal with that yet so, they'll need to ironed out that totally first. Not saying it's not going to happen, just there are a ton of variables - human passanger being a major one. I could see maybe unmanned cargo first. 

My prediction is its going to happen and cars will probably be first. 

Then when crashes happen, what cost 'value' will they put on a human life... Its going to be interesting to see.  

-Don 

 

Someone will probably come up with a court system run by AI when they determine humans are “too unreliable in interpreting the law on a consistent basis.” Then we are really screwed!

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One of the nice things about flying with the Captain and FO onboard is that they have "skin in the game".  They, like the rest of us on the plane, would like to go home at the end of the flight, and their actions in the cockpit make it happen.   On the other hand, a remote pilot sitting in an office at FL 000 will definitely be going home, no matter what he does or doesn't do.  Can't say the same about the folks in the big RC airliner.

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One of the nice things about flying with the Captain and FO onboard is that they have "skin in the game".  They, like the rest of us on the plane, would like to go home at the end of the flight, and their actions in the cockpit make it happen.   On the other hand, a remote pilot sitting in an office at FL 000 will definitely be going home, no matter what he does or doesn't do.  Can't say the same about the folks in the big RC airliner.

True, computers do almost all the flying anyway and the remote pilot will be emergency use only, maybe not in the beginning to satisfy the public.
Computers don’t get depressed, drunk, tired, or freezes under pressure.
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  • 1 month later...

P. Bertorelli wrote a really interesting piece on artificial intelligence replacing organic flight personnel that appeared in today's AVFlash.

 

Fantastic article.  The largest artificial neural network in existence today (late 2020) consists about 100 billion neurons.  That runs on hot racks of GPU's weighing thousands of pounds and consuming 20 to 100 kW of electric power. Our brains contain about 100 trillion neurons.  In electronics, increases in component count proceeds on an exponential curve.  Getting all that compute power into a low-power and light weight flight ready package represents some pretty grand technological challenges.  As an engineer, I believe solution of these will take a while.

Secondly, deep machine learning of the type that the computer scientists feel can mimic or surpass the human brain in learning tasks exhibits great skill when tested within the range of the training data.  The challenge arises outside the range of training data, where the machine learning algorithm is forced to extrapolate.   The human pilot relies on experience, often with good outcomes, sometimes not.  How will HAL deal with the unanticipated?  I suspect in a similar fashion to its organic counterparts.

The campy and way ahead of its time 1970's sci. fi. flick "Dark Star" provides an entertaining example of where I'm coming from.

Link to article here:

https://www.avweb.com/insider/can-a-computer-think-like-a-pilot-its-a-trivial-question

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The US military continues to push for autonomous drones and semi-autonomous. Without humans on board, it is a different risk calculus than with passengers. However, when redundancy is built into the system, machines make fewer mistakes than humans. According to the attached FAA report, 60-80% of all GA accidents are attributed (causal and/or contributing) to human error. This report gives a good breakdown on the kind of human errors. 

Statistically speaking, it makes sense for more autonomy. When AI is able to correct and learn from its mistakes, we'll see commercial aviation move towards pilotless aircraft. IMHO, I think that ttransition will go from FAA requiring two pilots down to one.

2006 FAA Human Error Report.pdf

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THanks, @irishpilot. I'm still reading that report on human error in commercial flight operations, and they mention a previous work [p.5, Purpose] that was alluded to near the beginning, that I think may prove beneficial to all of us:  "to extend our previous HFACS analyses beyond military and general aviation". Are these previous analyses available? I think they would have much more to say to the Mooneyspace audience, as they will surely have less discussion and inclusion of middle- and upper-management influence on safety culture and operations as well as supervisory error, and should also omit most references to the second pilot in the cockpit.

As a general question, why do so many aviation studies use such old data? This report is dated 2006, and opens up with commercial aviation accident data from 1985-1994. Yes, I understand that the FAA and NTSB generally run a year or two behind, but this data is over a decade late.

Thank you for some nice, meaty reading! It ranks right up there next to an extended treatise I read a few years ago on risk homeostasis, and I hope this one is as informative.

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On 11/9/2020 at 6:34 AM, 0TreeLemur said:

P. Bertorelli wrote a really interesting piece on artificial intelligence replacing organic flight personnel that appeared in today's AVFlash.

Fantastic article.  The largest artificial neural network in existence today (late 2020) consists about 100 billion neurons.  That runs on hot racks of GPU's weighing thousands of pounds and consuming 20 to 100 kW of electric power. Our brains contain about 100 trillion neurons.  In electronics, increases in component count proceeds on an exponential curve.  Getting all that compute power into a low-power and light weight flight ready package represents some pretty grand technological challenges.  As an engineer, I believe solution of these will take a while.

They do not need to solve the power and weight problem.  Just the communication required to get all the data to the AI on the ground. 

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Can't wait to see the press coverage after the first malfunction and crash.  I speculate that this would make the MAX fiasco seem comparatively calm. 

Better yet, when in the AI flown ops center they see on their terminals:

ALL YOUR PLANES ARE BELONG TO US.  SENT $100BILLION BITCOIN TO ACCOUNT A2641EG14772D3 OR THEY GO DOWN.

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On 11/13/2020 at 2:56 PM, 0TreeLemur said:

Can't wait to see the press coverage after the first malfunction and crash.  I speculate that this would make the MAX fiasco seem comparatively calm. 

Better yet, when in the AI flown ops center they see on their terminals:

ALL YOUR PLANES ARE BELONG TO US.  SENT $100BILLION BITCOIN TO ACCOUNT A2641EG14772D3 OR THEY GO DOWN.

The story is already written... the advertising is already in place... just waiting for it to actually happen....

There was one automotive accident that made the news...

The automated car was cruising along when somebody stepped in front of it.... a human driver couldn’t have done anything different...

Thousands of lives per year can be saved from the improved automotive technology...

but the news just wants the headline....

Fortunately, the world doesn’t rely on the news to make decisions...  though some will take the risk to make financial trades based on headlines or early into earnings conference calls...

In the end, the facts will prevail...

PP thoughts regarding the value of facts vs early information becoming available...

Best regards,

-a-

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