VREF Appraisals

[V1VRV2]

Anyone ever use VREF appraisal services? Did you receive an accurate appraisal and was it worth the $800  ?

[MB65E]

It’s only worth what someone will pay you. 
Why pay for an appraisal yourself? 
Home owners don’t appraise their own homes, they have the buyers lender appraise.

-Matt

 

[V1VRV2]

I’m a buyer. Not seller. Sorry for not clarifying that.

[GeeBee]

10 minutes on TradeAPlane or Contoller.com will get you a pretty good feel for the market.

 

[smccray]

Why do you want an appraisal?

In my limited experience, VREF will not give you a complete picture.  For example, installed equipment increases the value significantly.  Significant deferred maintenance doesn't affect "value" much at all.  Plane would appraise well but it would be a terrible plane to own.

Dirty little secret is that a fair value is actually a range of values.  A given Bravo is fairly priced and some number plus or minus 10%.  If it's a bank, the appraisal will hit the high side.  If you're a buyer, appraiser will figure out what you're looking for and price it accordingly- want to tell your wife you're getting a deal- expect the number to be high.  Want a club to wield against a seller?  appraiser will come in low.  If you're looking for a negotiating tool, I doubt it will be all that helpful.

if you're brave... post it here!  I guarantee someone will say it's worth $110K.  Someone else will tell you $250K.

[DonMuncy]

27 minutes ago, smccray said:

if you're brave... post it here!  I guarantee someone will say it's worth $110K.  Someone else will tell you $250K.

+1 

[V1VRV2]

2 hours ago, GeeBee said:

10 minutes on TradeAPlane or Contoller.com will get you a pretty good feel for the market.

 

I’ve been looking at Mooneys for over a year now. That’s just not true by any stretch of the imagination.

Just asked about anyone’s experience with VREF. So far no one that replied has used the service it seems.

[ZuluZulu]

I’ve used Vref for free via my AOPA membership, but I don’t know if what I was using was the same thing as their $800 appraisal service.

[GeeBee]

23 minutes ago, V1VRV2 said:

I’ve been looking at Mooneys for over a year now. That’s just not true by any stretch of the imagination.

Just asked about anyone’s experience with VREF. So far no one that replied has used the service it seems.

Then you are unable to read between the lines and/or unable to judge the horseflesh. In that case,  hire an appraiser. Vref does not have people who work only for them. They will contract an appraiser and report his report to you. You can cut out the middle man by googling "aircraft appraiser".

But if you are simply. afraid of paying 2000 too much on a 250K deal, the objective is all wrong.

 

 

 

 

[carusoam]

The usual MS appraiser also sells planes...

The challenge he ran into was with getting finance for a new owner...

It makes sense to use Vref... but their accuracy seems to be missing... for the job that was needed...

Old fuzzy memories as usual...

What are we trying to get out of a Vref estimate?  Accurate purchase price?

Best regards,

-a-

 

[jgarrison]

5 hours ago, V1VRV2 said:

Anyone ever use VREF appraisal services? Did you receive an accurate appraisal and was it worth the $800  ?

A Vref Appraisal or a VRev evaluation or a Bluebook evaluation or a Professional "Appraisal" or a Jimmy Garrison evaluation is only as good as it relates to what an arms length transaction actually reflects. And a lot of it that transaction depends on the buyer and his needs or wants. A good example is TKS. Appraisers and Value Guides and Jimmy will add value to a Mooney anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000 for the installation. Fact is, it costs in excess of $50K to install it. But it is a reality that if a buyer lives in the PACNW or Great Lakes or New England, that this installation can add well more than the typical $15K that guides add. It may be worth $50K to the right buyer who HAS TO HAVE TKS and HAS TO HAVE IT RIGHT NOW. And it may be worth zero to a buyer in Florida or Arizona.

What about paint? VRef adds $6000 for 'New Paint'. I've personally seen some recent paint jobs that ranged from $22K to $42K on Mooneys. If cosmetics is your thing, then the value you derive from a gorgeous new paint job may be well more than you get from an appraiser or a book.

I have purchased aircraft for quite a few clients. Everything from Bonanzas, to TBM-700's to PC-12's to King Airs (at least two of each of those models). Everybody knows I'm a Mooney guy. But it doesn't take long to interview a buyer and figure out what is important to him and then survey the market (both advertised and unadvertised - brokers and dealers are pretty good at finding unadvertised aircraft) and then take a simple spreadsheet to find the right value (weighted for specific needs). I have found that in almost every case mentioned here when I have been engaged to buy a plane for a client, that the plane they are focused on is the wrong plane for them and usually the wrong plane for value. In ever case but one, we wound up buying a different plane.

Is a VRef Appriasal worth $800. If you want a 'by the book' evaluation, probably so. But if the appraisal is not weighted toward your actual needs, then you may get a final number that doesn't come close to your reality as a buyer for what you need in an aircraft. Then you have to ask yourself, is the $800 spent to determine the value for someone who is not you worth it?

On the other hand... Eh... $800 in aviation is peanuts.

EDIT: Just to clarify: I don't do Acquisition services on Mooneys. Conflict of interest to my clients who turn their aircraft over to me.

EDIT 2: I do Market assessments on occasion for aircraft owners. I work by the hour. Typical assessment takes about 4 hour at $100 per hour. As long as I don't have to spend a bunch of time tracking down info on the plane. That assumes most of the data on the plane is provided to me in a concise and easy to decipher manner.

 

 

[V1VRV2]

So then how does VREF appraise an aircraft? They certainly don’t ask the buyer... hey how ever much your willing to pay for that plane is what it’s worth. Answering your own question for $800. No value in that. Just like a house there’s an appraised value based on comparables then there’s what someone is willing to pay for it. Two different things. The person who pays above market value can’t expect to sell it later and not realize it was a poor purchasing decision. If the plane is offered above market value I’d like to know what I stand to lose on the resale should it be necessary. Just a guy not looking to overpay for a plane. 

[MikeOH]

25 minutes ago, V1VRV2 said:

So then how does VREF appraise an aircraft? They certainly don’t ask the buyer... hey how ever much your willing to pay for that plane is what it’s worth. Answering your own question for $800. No value in that. Just like a house there’s an appraised value based on comparables then there’s what someone is willing to pay for it. Two different things. The person who pays above market value can’t expect to sell it later and not realize it was a poor purchasing decision. If the plane is offered above market value I’d like to know what I stand to lose on the resale should it be necessary.

Seriously not meaning any offense, but your desire to "know" what a "fair" price to your apparent level of comfort is NOT a realistic goal.  Your second sentence sounded like sarcasm, but is spot on: How ever much you are willing to pay, and the seller is willing to accept, is EXACTLY what it is worth.  I can think of no other product where price is negotiated, except a home, where you have good data on what people actually paid.  And, even if you did, then, as Jimmy points out, that price was a VALUE to that particular buyer with his PARTICULAR needs and WANTS at that ONE point in time.

I took a VERY long time to buy my first and, so far, only plane, but GeeBee and Jimmy are spot on.  If you've spent a year looking at the plane rags, and paid attention to which ones sold quickly, and which ones languished for the whole year...well, there you go!

You MUST know a good deal when you find it, or it's going to be GONE!  It took me TWO planes to figure this out; the third one that came along I shook hands on the deal two days after the listing showed up.

Final parting thought: I was shopping in the $50K range and $5K one way or the other did NOT matter.  I don't know what your budget is, but if you're worried about 'losing' $5K on a >$100K plane you are unrealistic or truly can't afford to own.  Believe me, $5K can disappear in a heartbeat after you own; you need to be ready to accept that fact. Or, IMHO, you are in for a miserable ownership experience regardless of what you paid for the plane; the cost of entry isn't where the money gets spent!

Good luck!

Edited July 29, 2020 by MikeOH

[smccray]

18 minutes ago, V1VRV2 said:

So then how does VREF appraise an aircraft? They certainly don’t ask the buyer... hey how ever much your willing to pay for that plane is what it’s worth. Answering your own question for $800. No value in that. Just like a house there’s an appraised value based on comparables then there’s what someone is willing to pay for it. Two different things. The person who pays above market value can’t expect to sell it later and not realize it was a poor purchasing decision. If the plane is offered above market value I’d like to know what I stand to lose on the resale should it be necessary.

A Bravo is going to run what- $250 / hr to run?  So over 5 years @ 100 hrs a year, you've spent $125K in operating cost.  The hard part- at any given time you need to be ready to drop $50-75K on a new engine if something goes badly.  Don't get me wrong- every dollar counts, but you can probably get within $10K of a reasonable price for a plane if you've been watching.  If you've been looking at planes in person and have an idea what you see, you can probably get even closer.  Let's say you overpay by $5K.  Don't get me wrong- that's terrible- but if an unexpected $5K "loss" is a show stopper, the Bravo is going to be a tough plane to own.  The plane has a lot of systems, all of which need to be maintained.

A cheap Bravo will probably cost $175K+, or you can buy an expensive one @ $130-140K, drop 50-75K into it and have a plane worth 160K.  I was looking a while back at Bravos and found a lot of early 90s M20Ms out there.  In 5 years, they will compare even more poorly to a 10-20 year younger turbo SR22.  Best case scenario, you invest a bunch of money in the panel to add glass, but you still have a single door airplane that burns more fuel.  The Bravo is faster... so I guess that counts for something, but not enough in my book.  The value question is more complex than what the plane is worth today; what will it be worth in the future.

The hard part with a Bravo is that it's a niche plane.  Burn a lot of fuel, go fast, but the cabin is small and [legal] useful load is limited.  Operating costs are high, and it's a very high performance plane.  The buyer is someone that wants big bore turbo Mooney, can afford to operate a high performance complex airplane, but can't afford to buy a an Acclaim.  That's a small market.  I ran the numbers a while back- it appeared that 150 hrs per year, you could buy an Acclaim, and use the fuel savings to pay the debt service on the marginal purchase price... and fly a G1000.  

If you're looking at a FIKI single, that's a different game.  It's a much more limited competitive market.  I haven't looked in a while, but 2 yrs ago you'd be looking at $200K at the low end for a well equipped FIKI Bravo- likely $220K+.

You pay your $ and you take your chances.  Come on in- the water is fine! 

[gsxrpilot]

I, for one, to answer the OP's question, don't like VREF and wouldn't pay for it's opinion on anything.

I prefer an Excel spreadsheet. If you're looking for a Bravo, find every one for sale in the whole country and put them on a spreadsheet. N numbers across the top and specs in the rows. It'll take longer than 10 min, but watching over the course of a few weeks will probably give you a pretty good idea of the market.

[carusoam]

Unlike houses...

• there are no comps in the neighborhood...
• actual selling prices are only known to the buyer and seller... not to the casual observer...
• There aren’t even that many for sale at any one time...

Fortunately, if you find the right Mooney, in the wrong neighborhood.... it doesn’t take very long to relocate it at Mooney speeds....

Buying used machinery can be fun... it can also take a lot of time...
 

The first time a buyer spends a lot of time looking for the right plane, determining the exact price he wants to pay for it, he finds out quickly the plane moves really fast on its own....

The second time a buyer is looking for the plane... he knows exactly how much he is going to pay... ownership can occur in about two weeks...
 

0) PPI

1) Finance

2) Insurance

3) Training

4) Delivery Flight...
 

The act of buying a plane across the country can be an extra challenge...

Helps to have all these ducks lined up when ready to pop the question....

PP thoughts only, not a plane sales guy...

Best regards,

-a-

[smccray]

Just now, carusoam said:

The first time a buyer spends a lot of time looking for the right plane, determining the exact price he wants to pay for it, he finds out quickly the plane moves really fast on its own....

The second time a buyer is looking for the plane... he knows exactly how much he is going to pay... ownership can occur in about two weeks...

And... does a PPI on the seller as much as the plane.  You learn a lot about how the plane was cared for just talking to the owner.

[Schllc]

To over simplify, there are two types of buyers, those who can’t properly compare appointments and condition, and those who are looking for theIr next plane. 
90% of the time there are really good reasons why planes are priced the way they are. 
Most enter the shopping game and approach like they shop for automobiles. 
the reality is there is very little validity in comparing any two planes simply from an ad in the vast majority of instances. 
ive used Vref several times and it’s wildly random in its accuracy. You can’t even ever really add the actual upgrades and features, you have to kinda pick something close.  You also can’t ad that it’s flown weekly and serviced at reputable shops. 
If you been watching the market for a year and don’t have a sense of what a good value is, you simply don’t understand what you are looking at.
if this sounds like a slight, it isn’t intended, we all start that way.   
Ask questions here and you will hear a wide variety of opinions, all helpful, even if you disagree. 
You will get honesty and candor from people with real world experience. 
 

[MIm20c]

I agree with a lot of the above. However, I do feel the bravo and 231are IMO the hardest Mooney aircraft to put a value on. I think this is because of the wide range of prices, values, and maintenance history.  The long period of time some have spent on (and off) the market does not help the valuations. 
 

@V1VRV2 in the time you have been looking a few mid ‘90’s J’s, 4-5 nice ovations, and a couple bravo aircraft have sold. IMO if you have been tracking these aircraft you would have a very good idea at what price point things are moving. The hardest part of the equation is finding one at the upper range of the price point that has superior equipment and maintenance history. 

[tigers2007]

My $0.02:
In regards to automobiles and valuation tools, Kelly Blue Book, Black Book, Edmunds, etc. values are a racket (steered by the dealer lobby). I have access to Manheim’s wholesale vehicle market tools which use actual dealer-only auction sales data. I frequently see vehicles sell at auction for a fraction of what KBB claims they are worth. My point is that these consumer level valuation tools don’t quite paint the whole picture. For example yesterday I bought a ‘12 F-350 4x4 reg cab work truck for 5.8 AMU’s. The “street value” according to KBB and used car lot research is 10-13 AMU’s. Did I really get a deal? Nah I paid what most dealers do for this type of hoopty.
I’d personally rather spend my dime with a reputable salesman to valuate my Mooney as they truly have the pulse of the market.

[R-Banger]

As someone who finances homes for a living,  I will agree that the appraisals are apples to oranges when comparing to aircraft. Even at that there are still some similarities. Yes with homes you have comps available; however, appraisals don't always necessarily take into account market value. It is a formula based comparison to get a decent assessment of value from comps, but there are still intangibles that formulas and such can't quantify, and due to regulations, appraisers are limited in factoring in those variables for value. This is where in some instances appraised value isn't the same as market value. Aircraft are almost exclusively market value based. Case in point I paid a little more for my bird than most typical E models, but it was a rock solid plane that was flying very regularly and I was familiar with the plane itself and the previous owner. There is no way for that to be quantified on a report. When I used to fly for a living, I had started an aircraft brokerage department and quickly found Vref to not be that relevant. If you want to be in the ballpark of +/- 30%, I guess that can help.

In short, don't rely on Vref. That's my opinion from my experience.

 

[jgarrison]

1 hour ago, R-Banger said:

In short, don't rely on Vref. That's my opinion from my experience.

 

Any of you that have read my stuff over the last 23 years know that I am not a fan of Bluebook or VRef and a true guide to value. The primary reason is that they have no clue when it comes to the actual sales of aircraft because sales prices are not published anywhere. Complicate this by a factor of 100 (vs. when BB started out so many years ago) with the number of variables available to be installed on a plane. There is no way to keep up with it. In the old days, you have a two or three brands of avionics and autopilots and about four typical installations in the panel (Nav/Com, ADF, DME, HSI and maybe a stormscope or radar). Believe it or not the base value in Bluebook for a lot of Mooneys, last time I looked at it, includes an ADF as typically installed equipment (maybe behind the times are they?). The more I looked at the BB guide and how they value not only the base aircraft but the upgrades, the more I stopped looking at it. And then cancelled my subscription altogether (after having one for 23 year plus another 5-6 with my predecessor).

So they do the best they can do with info available to them (or maybe they just SWAG it) put numbers on paper or into digital form and tell the world what happened last quarter in aviation, as authorities, and then the market actually gravitates to their numbers. Tail wagging the dog. 

As mentioned previously, Rick Cox of VRef does actually call me regularly to get my take on the Mooney market. I appreciate that.

[MooneyBe]

For what it's worth, I used the free version of VREF offered through AOPA and it was helpful in selling my last plane.

I put in the information exactly as VREF asked and got an output. I then added the fact that I was including ~$2500 retail worth of Bruce covers and some replacement parts/decals valued at ~$500 retail. I totalled this up, reduced the output by ~1% because the number seemed just slightly high compared to prior sales I had tracked. The plane then sold for that amount (well, 0.5% less than that amount). Honestly without VREF I would have had trouble determining the price and it helped me 'defend' my price when prospective buyers asked 'how i arrived at my price point'. I actually found that to be the most valuable piece of it--I had a solid leg to stand on in defending the price.