LDI Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 Hey everyone, This is my second post. I'm beginning the process of acquiring a Mooney. My first post has been an amazing help and thought I would start a new thread for this new topic/question. Does any one have any historical trends or experience with asset/plane prices in a recession? What happened to values in 2008, 2009 and 2010? I'm not sure but when I look at the horizon, I am not sure we will avoid one. Many are not feeling the pain yet, stimulus, unemployment, SBA PPP loans, SBA EIDL loans. Anyone with an existing SBA loan, the payments have been made by the SBA until Oct, Airlines can't layoff until Oct, big sectors of our economy are not going to recover quickly. Which will impact other areas and cause a general recession. Anyway, what is the impact of a recession on plane prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rwsavory Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 The last recession was very severe and affected almost everyone. The prices of almost all assets (including aircraft) declined. However, making predictions is very difficult, especially about the future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 My favorite topic... Economy vs. plane prices... I don’t see the future, but I clearly see the past... Realize this is a really bad topic to bring in front of a large bunch of plane owners facing an economic down-turn... Call that a tad insensitive... Back on topic... the world is experiencing an economic down-turn on two fronts... Wall St. vs Main Street and Covid 19... While debating whether it’s a V, U, or Square root recovery... you missed it.... Wall Street has already had a significant recovery... When it comes to Main Street... count the house for sale signs as you go down the road... If you got down the road and didn’t count any.... welcome back to 2008.... Since it is 2020, the road trip has gone virtual... go on Zillow...see the house prices... and their history... bummer, prices for beach houses have gone up again... Lets not celebrate the negative aspects of a poor economy... that would be a touch il-advised... If by chance you bought something at a deep discount after a recession... congrats. It is good to have financial strength during tough economic times... For the most part lately, there has been more people looking for Mooneys than ever before (on MS)... The Covid situation is evolving in a more positive way as time elapses.... Testing for Covid is better and faster than before... people are better able to handle not getting it or spreading it.... Get ready for the next big recession... there will always be one... The people most effected by this recession... Are the really small Main Street shops.... restaurants and the like... Don’t forget to order out from your favorite local restaurant... in NJ, we have outside dining that is open.... Even gyms have started a smart re-opening plan... PP thoughts only, not a plane sales guy yet... Best regards, -a- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishpilot Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 Agree with@carusoam, hard to predict plane prices vs recession. GA planes are generally a luxury item and when people have to tighten their spending, planes tend to go. However, many on this forum are long-term owners so market corrections/downturns are something they weather and outlast. If you are thinking about buying now vs waiting for a "buyer's market" then that choice comes down to how long you are willing to wait. If you plan to own this plane five years or longer, then I'd buy the plane that fits your requirements, regardless of market timing. If you are a short-term owner, than market timing matters more.Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cferr59 Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 Maybe the value will go up because people would rather fly their own planes than fly on an airliner... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeeBee Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 If you are worried about the future value of an airplane to purchase, you can’t afford it to start with. Prices go up, they go down. The one constant is when you open your hangar door she is there and she is yours, everything else is pure speculation. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Pilotte Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 Piston singles are a little different than typical business aircraft so take this for what it’s worth. Business jet market comments Since December jet sales have been down and some models have been taking 10% valuation hits but inventory levels of aircraft on market is also low. This is a unique time right now. I wouldn’t count this as a buyers market right now as more people are realizing benefits of traveling in smaller aircraft, but you can’t be guaranteed you’ll be met with open arms at your destination depending on where you depart. I’m in full agreement with Carusoam and Irishpilot. Don’t let the economy concerns dictate whether you buy. Buying the plane is the first of the investment. You won’t be getting “market adjustments” on parts, repair labor, or insurance that will really be to your benefit. In fact with this uncertainty you will find insurance is catching up after years of reasonable pricing. A 10% hit on the plane could be considered 1 year of opex but unless you are flipping the plane, it will work itself out when the market stabilizes. TLDR version, find the plane that fits your needs and budget, buy it and fly it. Consider yourself fortunate to be in this arena if you can afford to be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Missile=Awesome Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 First world problems in deciding whether or not to buy an airplane. RV, Boat, Saunas, Hot tubs, Pools, Building supplies are in high demand right now as folks choose to continue to live their lives modifying their leisure plans... When international and Disney are down a park or a lake or your back yard are pretty awesome alternatives... Now buying any of the above in a coupe years will likely be a buyers market. Life is to be lived. I prefer optimism and planning over fear and concern. Paying down debt is never a bad idea. Cash is king. Always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Missile=Awesome Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 A Mooney is ALWAYS a great intermediate (where big tin is inconvenient or impossible) time machine making getting to the adventure a pleasure. Having “friends” share in ownership is AWESOME Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danb Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 It’s tough to say we’re in a recession, I’ve been trying to get a new deck built I can’t even get an estimate people are so busy. Many I guess many are collecting there unemployment plus $600 a week, working on the side doing small construction regardless I’m ready to start begging some contractors to at least give me a high estimate. The best I’ve had so far is I can sell you materials but I’m booked for the year.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragsf15e Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 Just so you know... purchase price plus/minus $10-15k doesn’t even scratch the surface after a couple years ownership. Owning an airplane is not like buying a car, most of the cost is NOT the purchase, it’s the yearly expenses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parker_Woodruff Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 I’m getting a huge amount of quote requests for people buying planes. Good planes are getting strong prices 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigers2007 Posted July 11, 2020 Report Share Posted July 11, 2020 I’ve received two messages from forum members outside of MS interested in my vintage D model in the last week. I think the budget value of the vintage birds is keeping them popular amongst prospective buyers. I’m not even sure I want to sell it either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsxrpilot Posted July 12, 2020 Report Share Posted July 12, 2020 20 hours ago, GeeBee said: If you are worried about the future value of an airplane to purchase, you can’t afford it to start with. Prices go up, they go down. The one constant is when you open your hangar door she is there and she is yours, everything else is pure speculation. This! And just to add one other point. Owning an airplane almost NEVER makes good financial sense. So trying to time the purchase of one is a lost cause as well. IF you want an airplane, AND you can afford an airplane, there is NO time like the present to buy one. Oh, and a second point... the clock is ticking on your medical, none of us will fly past a certain age. Don't let those 3rd Class Medical hours pass, waiting on a good time to buy. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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