How has your flying been impacted?...self sufficiency in the COVID19 era

[N201MKTurbo]

I'd rather have the virus than what's going on now...

I'm not un-informed about the situation, so don't try to educate me....

I think the mitigation is causing far more damage to society than the disease.

This reaction is unprecedented in the history of the world. There have been diseases sense the beginning of time (swine flu, Spanish flu to name a few) but the world didn't come to a stop with all our freedoms taken away.

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, DXB said:

also...

You forgot to add in that

- posting more than usual to your favorite aviation forums online.

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, DXB said:

That model website is pretty illustrative of the issues at play. I think the wide confidence intervals on those predictions are driven by ambiguities in all of the input data, not just human behavior, as well as flawed assumptions of the model.  One issue that I think is sorely missing from the public discourse on these models:

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

“Public health depends on public trust. If we claim now that our models show that 2 months of mitigations will cut deaths by 90%, why will anyone believe us 2 months from now when the story has to change?“    I would like to think this viewpoint wrong, but I see no reason to dismiss it; to the contrary, I think it should be driving policy in the near future.  The best social restrictions may be ones that let the virus burn through the population at a steady rate until herd immunity emerges.  Measures that allow us to maintain just enough resources to take care of the sick are what we need, not ones that suppresses transmission entirely, smashing our economy with it.  

I think all your call-outs are fair. I would think that it seems logical that the biggest influencer we have (barring an emergent/effective vaccine or something similar), and what public messaging seems to be managing to is behavioral based exposure management. There are definitely other factors that should have been factored in their analysis (environmental, temps, exposure imitation timeline, population density ...along with flaws in the model etc ) but it seems to follow that if we go "Italy" behaviorally, we'll get "Italy" as an outcome and those outcomes are what these graphs are trying to depict. 

[Stephen]

21 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I'd rather have the virus than what's going on now...

I'm not un-informed about the situation, so don't try to educate me....

I think the mitigation is causing far more damage to society than the disease.

This reaction is unprecedented in the history of the world. There have been diseases sense the beginning of time (swine flu, Spanish flu to name a few) but the world didn't come to a stop with all our freedoms taken away.

Hi N201', 

Not a bit trying to educate you, I'm probably not qualified to do so. I am un-informed about the situation and actively trying to learn as information becomes available as significant bits seem to be emerging at least weekly... if not daily. I am a data analytics type so that type of thing is interesting to me; the graphs I shared I learned about yesterday. . Looking at them, even with assumptive error, the actuals to-date seem to support the *generalized*  curve profiles. If those curves are even  "right-ish" (hopefully they are not overly optimistic)... they pretty strongly suggest behavioral ramifications at the level of individuals, families and society.  

Maybe it would be personally preferable to just have the virus than what is going on now. Problem is that is that seems to be a non-choice. As the actual new case/death numbers illustrate, the challenge doesn't seem to be getting it...it seems the challenge is in keeping it to yourself once you got it, particularly as you may very well have no clue that you are infected or you end up in the hospital. If you are asymptomatic, who knows you may not be highly contagious..from what I have gathered "they" are still working that stuff out...like I said, new stuff all the time. When thinking about going with my gut and just getting out there and letting nature take its course, it seems that that approach has me risking a lot more peoples fates beyond my own...that is where it gets sticky.  I also can relate to the economic/business concerns, I have a couple of business headquartered in AZ that I am highly invested in so definitely have skin in the game to say the least. Again, just suggesting careful consideration and maybe some contextual information to help that process. 

 

Best,

 

Stephen

 

 

[Ross Taylor]

I almost hit a corvid once, during take-off... but there was only one, not 19... so I'm not sure what damage it would have done.  Here in Flagstaff, we have a ton of them and they're big suckers!  

[Stephen]

37 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

I almost hit a corvid once, during take-off... but there was only one, not 19... so I'm not sure what damage it would have done.  Here in Flagstaff, we have a ton of them and they're big suckers!  

Yes, went to NAU myself, they can get pretty big around there. 

[carusoam]

Google doesn’t think we want to actually look up Corvid...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corvidae

AKA big crow!

-a-

[N201MKTurbo]

I found my people!

I just went to get takeout and heard music playing in the parking lot. I looked at the other end of the lot and it looked like a giant tailgate party!

There were about 20 cars (socially distanced) with tables and chairs behind them. They had white table cloths and real wine and cocktail glasses. 

You could walk up to the door and order your takeout, sit behind your car with your family and listen to the piano player....

[MooneyMitch]

7 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I found my people!

I just went to get takeout and heard music playing in the parking lot. I looked at the other end of the lot and it looked like a giant tailgate party!

There were about 20 cars (socially distanced) with tables and chairs behind them. They had white table cloths and real wine and cocktail glasses. 

You could walk up to the door and order your takeout, sit behind your car with your family and listen to the piano player....

A real live piano player?...............a working musician in this situation?  Phenomenal I say!!!  I wonder if he/she is getting paid too.......... 

[mike_elliott]

I havent flown now since the 12th of March. I already know I am so rusty I will need to get with a safety pilot at least to make sure I have my "mind right" when we resume. Going from a schedule that had literally every available day booked until June to an open calendar has me perplexed as to what to do with myself at home. For those that know, my wife got her test results back and they are negative and I want to thank everyone who has sent me a text, PM etc expressing their best wishes and thoughts.

This Coronavirus is worse than a pitted tappet on a lycoming! At least you know what your up against there. 

Once we do get the "green light:" to blue sky some more, do consider taking a safey pilot, instructor, etc up so that you can get back into the saddle with safety.

Thanks all, fly and be safe.

Mike

 

[bonal]

Clear skies today got snoopy out and flew the local sky and did four full stop landings. two closed pattern and two out and back over the lake with some standard rate turns. Winds were very tricky over the numbers and a good bit of rust needed to be shook from the nut on the yoke. Was great to get the wind under my wings and since it was very cool and I was solo climb rate was over 1200fpm. Landings were the good the bad and the ugly but decided to add a forth and it was smooth as silk. I think places that have minimal covid19 should be allowed to start getting back to normal activity. Here in Lake County there are zero cases. When we were kids they used to have mumps and measles parties when one kid would contract the disease so everyone would get it and develop immunity. 

[Danb]

Great news Mike hopefully you both will stay well.thanks for the advice

[Jim Peace]

worked on some yankee landings this evening at the creek

[carusoam]

no wind at all..?

-a-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_American_AA-1

[MooneyMitch]

Watching airplanes come and go at SBP.

Listening to CTAF, controller says no practice approaches, no touch and goes, no loitering!

I must haves missed the FAA announcement!  

[MooneyMitch]

Just discovered no FAA restrictions for operations, per conversation with tower person.

Restrictions are towers discretion, based on workload and staffing.

Its not busy here by a long shot!  Commercial traffic much less frequent.

Tough times for all. 

[rob737]

Last week I found the best airport restaurant..OKV (Winchester, VA) Stay safe and current friends

[MooneyMitch]

7 minutes ago, rob737 said:

Last week I found the best airport restaurant..OKV (Winchester, VA) Stay safe and current friends

That’s what I’m talkin’ about!  Excellent!!!

[MooneyMitch]

I keep hearing the mantra..........."this is the new normal"..............NO, it's a temporary situation only!  WE are much BIGGER than this!!  NORMAL will return for us all, with a greater appreciation of our life, a greater respect and appreciation of our freedoms. 

[PMcClure]

8 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

I keep hearing the mantra..........."this is the new normal"..............NO, it's a temporary situation only!  WE are much BIGGER than this!!  NORMAL will return for us all, with a greater appreciation of our life, a greater respect and appreciation of our freedoms. 

This is not the new normal, but there will be one. I am organizing my thoughts and actions into three categories:  1. Manage the Crisis, 2. Protect the Future, and 3. Face the New Reality. Lots to do in the 1st two categories now, but I think we are only starting to get a glimpse of what the new reality will be. I am optimistic by nature with a bend to preparation. We will get through this and the future will look different than it did 2 months ago. 

[MooneyMitch]

https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute/safety-notices/safety-notice-atc-zero-events?utm_source=ebrief&utm_medium=email

Yep, I understand. 

[bonal]

What I fear is that the new normal is that every time we have a new strain of virus flu or otherwise we will all just shut down our lives give up our freedom destroy our economy and allow our local officials to deny our constitutional rights. Not to mention let's say we are successful in flattening the 19 curve at some point they are going to have to release the masses and then all of us that we're not infected will be without the antibodies needed to have a resistance to this virus. And we will have to start all this over again. No vaccine is 100% effective I understand that a steep curve is bad because it can overwhelm our medical system but if you deny the herd mentality you risk going back to square one. Yes the virus is bad but not the first time our species has had to ward off an attack but the first time in my life that we have shut down life as we know it.

[larryb]

Did anybody know that the planned response to a pandemic was "shelter in place" "social distancing" and shutting down 25% of the world economy? That is the one thing that mystifies me. I always knew a pandemic was a risk, but I never read anything about this being the cure. 

[midlifeflyer]

I am not flying at all. That is primarily because I fly shared airplanes and care. If I owned my own I'd do charitable and humanitarian flights.

[eman1200]

50 minutes ago, midlifeflyer said:

... If I owned my own I'd do charitable and humanitarian flights.

such as...?

to a lesser degree, I consider my flights to the usual restaurants somewhat charitable in that I'm doing my part to try to support them.  it's not as potent as a flight carrying medical supplies etc but I get to eat and hopefully it helps keeping some local business stay afloat.