MIm20c

Cheaper fuel for the summer?

Recommended Posts

With all the doom and gloom talk these days I try to look at the positives. We should hopefully (depending on when they mix 100LL) see some cheaper fuel this summer. I’m hopeful for $3.50 to make its way back to Michigan. Anyone else?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

*Members that donate $10 or more do not see advertisements*

Car gas is headed below 2...

NJ is at 2.20 $/g currently...

100LL seems to be steady at car gas +1...

-a-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Auto gas prices already below $2 here and in Texas. Kennett MO 100LL is $3.30.  But I’m not sure there are going to be a lot of ways to “enjoy” these prices for the next several months.  Be careful what you wish for. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my experience it takes a lot longer for 100LL to come down because the volume used is so much lower.  The prices we are seeing at the 100LL pumps right now are probably still reflective of a raw material cost near $50.  I have no idea how low 100LL will go since it's a small and somewhat monopolistic market but we should see some good benefits when they start distributing it using $30 oil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On average, lower oil prices takes 4-6 weeks to make through the pipeline, refinery and ultimately to the pump.  Given demand is lower (only to be outpaced by an increase in supply), the significantly lower oil prices won't be fully reflected in the pump price for a few weeks.  Avgas demand and production is significantly less and chunky.  So, as Davidv said, who knows when we will see that lower cost.  The upside is that even when demand recovers (hopefully sometime in the summer) there will likely still be significant oversupply depressing prices.

Note, anyone who says they can predict the price of fuel more than a month or two out has no idea.  OPEC (Saudi Arabia) could easily change their mind tomorrow and restrict supply swinging the price of oil the other way.  Note, many US upstream companies drop out of the market when oil is sustainably below $45/barrel.  So, there will likely be some restriction in US supply soon.

 

W

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It takes weeks for fuel prices to drop in response to oil prices, but they go up immediately. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OPEC has lost the ability to snap change their minds...

Somebody in Russia put the pressure on that...

It is a three way competition and prices are going lower as the pumps are running...

It may be an attack on the shale producers... to drive them into closing...

The highest cost producer runs out of ability to sell for more than their cost...

The Saudis seem to have the lowest cost...

 

War on oil production...

war on Covid-19...

War on stocks and bonds...

War at the dinner table... lots of people staying in...

World wide stress...

Best regards,

-a-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/16/2020 at 7:08 PM, MIm20c said:

We should hopefully (depending on when they mix 100LL) see some cheaper fuel this summer. I’m hopeful for $3.50 to make its way back to Michigan. Anyone else?

 

Avgas today..jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my opinion, gas prices are more controlled by fbo's than oil prices.

gas @knqa has always been super cheap

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It cost $4.91 at Summit Middletown De two days ago,  Wilmington 12 miles away has three FBOs charging between $5.59 and $5.99.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s 6.75 at my airport so I fly 60 miles and buy it for 3.58...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mooneymite said:

 

Avgas today..jpg

You must have the long-range tanks.  ;)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EricJ said:

You must have the long-range tanks.  ;)

 

2 hours ago, Mooneymite said:

 

Avgas today..jpg

this just hurts my feelings

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's almost worth a flight from Denver!  @Denver98 next time you go to pick up some pups, you gotta stop here for gas.

1457830798_ScreenShot2020-03-20at4_14_30PM.thumb.png.f751fe447dbfa454cb0e00c64883ce80.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 8,500 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.59446/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.85060/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.01060/gal       

 

Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 4,000 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.66891/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.92505/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.08505/gal       

 

Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 3,000 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.71577/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.97191/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.13191/gal 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's almost worth a flight from Denver!  @Denver98 next time you go to pick up some pups, you gotta stop here for gas.

1457830798_ScreenShot2020-03-20at4_14_30PM.thumb.png.f751fe447dbfa454cb0e00c64883ce80.png

It’s funny, I was JUST looking at this airport, it’s close enough to Amarillo to make it worth the stop.  Although ForeFlight doesn’t show it THAT cheap.  Hopefully we’ll see a drop at BJC soon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, McMooney said:

this just hurts my feelings

You should feel good.

Whenever I buy this much gas, the price usually plummets at least $1/gallon.

I hate having to be a petroleum speculator.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, carusoam said:

Makes me want the turbine Mooney even more... :)

-a-

Nah, I’ll take that 385hp, 3000 TBO Diesel engine EPS is working on.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So...

About a month has gone by...

fuel prices have been heading a good way... in the right direction...

 

Then OPEC got together for a week...

And came up with a plan to cut oil production...

OPEC and allies finalize record oil production cut after days of discussion
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/12/opec-and-allies-finalize-record-oil-production-cut-after-days-of-discussion.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Message
 

See how long the agreement lasts before getting disappointed.

Best regards,

-a-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.