carusoam Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 Close quarters with unknown individuals... Doesn’t sound like social distancing can be maintained... See what the DPEs are thinking... Does MS have a DPE? Best regards, -a- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeOH Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 For another perspective (note the guy's CV; he's not just another schmuck with an opinion): https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 Copied from Mikes article above... -a- John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragedracer1977 Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, MikeOH said: For another perspective (note the guy's CV; he's not just another schmuck with an opinion): https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ This is what's making this so difficult. Conflicting opinions flying everywhere from literal experts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 County of San Luis Obispo, California........ starting tomorrow, Thursday, beginning at 5 PM, we are ordered to shelter at home. It doesn’t matter now if our airport remains open or not . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 List of variables for the Covid-19, as read on the internet by a PP... 1) incubation period... up to 14 days... 2) The carrier is able to spread the virus without knowing they are ill... during this period. 3) length of illness... a few days OR until death... depending on age and other related personal health factors... 4) Ease of spreading the virus... pretty easy if in close quarters. No intimate contact required.. 5) length of time the active virus can survive on a surface.... up to three days... or so. 6) This is what makes sense of all the extra cleaning and wiping of surfaces... 7) Things that exacerbate the virus transfer... touching a virus on a surface... then touching your sensitive personal surfaces (face)... Community challenge... 8) The objective is to slow the spread... each day is helpful... 9) waiting long enough that there is a broad peak of ill people, requiring limited resources... 10) spreading this peak out helps a ton! If you have to be sick... pick a time when these resources will be available to you... Things that help... 11) Testing facilities have been slow to mobilize compared to the rate of virus spread.... hard to know what you have without a test. 12) Testing equipment is being built as quickly as possible.... 13) procedures for testing are well established... 14) Test labs in every state are expected to be available currently... 15) actual test takes four hours... transporting samples and getting data back takes longer... 16) pharmacies are developing methods to have a drive through, take a sample, and send it off for the procedure... 17) Strong technology to keep track of all of this data is in place... 18) available tests per day capability is in the 10s of thousands(?) a small number compared to the millions that may be needed... Who is effected the most vs. the least 19) people over 50 are at a serious level of risk... the older each decade the more serious... 20) people with compromised immune systems... more risk... 21) Apparently breathing can be a real challenge... so any existing lung challenges are bad... 22) combining the risks here make things even more challenging... It won’t make sense... 23) To send the youngest out to do the shopping... without knowing how best to avoid things... 24) Your unknowing person comes home with the virus on their hands... guide them with the cleaning process... 25) avoid accidental spreading around the house to the elders... 26) our elders and infirmed are living in a separate house than our NYC working kids... Level of stress... 27) expect the level of stress to be rising... 28) Established aviation gentlepeople have retirement accounts getting hammered... 29) Many working people will have difficulty earning a living...harder to pay the bills... 30) Discussing openly may help... Sunshine at the end of the tunnel... 31) there is an end to this that was described by the CEO of Starbucks... 32) a good portion of their business is in China. 33) Their stores are similar to the ones in the US... 34) most have re-opened... 35) the model of business has changed... 36) drive throughs or pick-up only... no in store sitting and hanging out... 37) pay with an app to avoid all contact on the payment side... 38) Consider picking up food from your favorite local place... they are going to need our help too... Government relief... 39) Lots of programs coming together out of Washington... 40) Some small dollars for the most needy... 41) Some big dollars for keeping corporations alive... 42) Don’t expect much from your government... they are going to be extra busy fighting this battle. Thanks for allowing me to discuss what I am thinking... openly. (All that from today’s memories...) Best regards, -a- 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 “38) Consider picking up food from your favorite local place... they are going to need our help too...“ I’ve never seen such a line at the In & Out Burger joint tonight ! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 hours ago, MikeOH said: For another perspective (note the guy's CV; he's not just another schmuck with an opinion): https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ This Harvard guy politely crushes arguments raised by that Stanford guy. The Stanford guy never does come to grips with the fact that his best case scenarios are inconsistent with what has happened in Wuhan and Italy. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danb Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 Decided I needed to get in the air yesterday, went over to Summit for fuel, they wouldn’t let me in the building, asked a list of questions, then the lineman about 20 minutes later gave me fuel. Almost met my maker while rotating my screen flashed a big yellow ball a police helicopter was coming at me, I announced my intention, prior to runway entry and departure, never a word from the SP copter, I needed to decide to hit him or the trees, luckily cleared them. I contacted the state police flight division and plan a talk with the commander today. Trying to get out nearly turned disastrous. My discussion will hopefully be on there lack of use of a radio when landing at a uncontrolled field. I assume I’ll be wasting my time. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy95W Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 VIDEO-2020-03-18-17-43-12.mp4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mooneygirl Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 If you ever wanted to be an Imagineer at Disney, you could take this course online: https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2019/08/walt-disney-imagineering-partners-with-khan-academy-to-bring-you-imagineering-in-a-box/ Heck, it is something to do! We are all getting creative, especially for those of us under a Shelter in Place order. Don't forget that now might be a great time to check out an online flight school to start on your instrument [yes it really makes you a better pilot], commercial [join me for the fun] or other rating. https://kingschools.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 Shelter at home................I think I'll go for a walk ! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy95W Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 Best line from the Monty Python clip is at the end. "Who's that?" "Must be the king. Doesn't got shit all over 'im." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kortopates Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 15 hours ago, MikeOH said: For another perspective (note the guy's CV; he's not just another schmuck with an opinion): https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ Thanks for posting, I enjoyed reading it. Well written and articulated - but analysis paralysis can't be a solution. I've also read they believe flattening the curve really did help in Wuhan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 19, 2020 Report Share Posted March 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, kortopates said: Thanks for posting, I enjoyed reading it. Well written and articulated - but analysis paralysis can't be a solution. I've also read they believe flattening the curve really did help in Wuhan. Time will reveal all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeOH Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 18 hours ago, Flash said: This Harvard guy politely crushes arguments raised by that Stanford guy. The Stanford guy never does come to grips with the fact that his best case scenarios are inconsistent with what has happened in Wuhan and Italy. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/ Hmm, I'd hardly call his 'arguments' crushing by any stretch of the imagination. Also, his CV pales in comparison to the Stanford guy. The Harvard guy seems to argue that we have to do EVERYTHING because we CAN'T take ANY chances, in the absence of data saying otherwise. Well, the hard question, that the Stanford professor was getting at, is at what cost do you protect citizens? And, he raises some interesting unintended consequences beyond monetary. But, look at the horrific economic carnage already wrought on the stock market. Small businesses are already being obliterated. 15,000 cases/200 deaths, to date, due to coronavirus. Flu, to date 2019-2020: 20,000 to 40,000 DEATHS. Where is the outrage? This happens each and every year! Yet, we aren't on lockdown??? Do we really have enough data (even the Harvard guy admits we don't have much data) to impose the draconian measures we are seeing? Certainly, the beauty of imposing such measures is, after the fact, one can always speculate how much worse the deaths would have been had they not been imposed. But, what at what cost to the rest of what makes us a society? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragedracer1977 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 36 minutes ago, MikeOH said: But, what at what cost to the rest of what makes us a society? Who cares. we need to sacrifice the United States in its entirety, condemn 100,000,000 to starvation and poverty. We have to recreate the Great Depression if we want to save lives. /sarcasm off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Practice at home................no public performances or rehearsals ! Play 'em if you got 'em folks! California now "stay at home" order........................man, I sure hope this is all correct ! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Most recent data in NJ... 742 cases in NJ, 9 deaths... so far... of the 742, the living 733 haven’t all finished recovering yet... I would prefer that we were completely wrong... and spent the money foolishly... And put blame on my least favorite politician... (pick one or two or several from each side..toss in some independents for spice.) The numbers are building in NJ... with real data... as much as you will ever want to see... no hokey pokey data from non-preferred other countries... Social distancing... Do it for yourself... this way, if you need a respirator or other scientific hospital device... it will be available... The better WE stay virus free... the further past peak we will be... best to be on the LOP side... after the doctors and equipment get a rest... First deaths in NJ were all from the same family... ugh. eat well, sleep well, get ready for a long fight... (short fights can be bad) Prepare to celebrate as an established aviator would... After recovery, are we allowed to go out and high five the other recovered people? We could get colored bands... pre-virus purple... or post virus green... for our preferred high five hand... Some things to consider... learning as I go... Best regards, -a- 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mooneygirl Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 My dear friend Cory Robin shot this video in 4K for those of us pilots who need to relax and refresh during this stressful time. Although it isn't a Mooney I thought you might like to shoot it to your flat screen in 4K and relax. Cory co-founded the Flying Cowboys, the low n slow, STOL group. I was going to fly part way with the group to OSH, but that would require having my gear and flaps down. LOL. Just kidding. Check the video out. It is pretty awesome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Off the ground real quick... Cars in the back ground are going the same speed as the plane... Nice camera and videography... Better, if it were Mooney mounted... I almost fell asleep while watching it... If it were Mooney mounted... I would have finished the movie, before falling asleep... great few minutes of de-frustration... thanks for sharing... Best regards, -a- 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaylw314 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Another educational watch for those interested. Color me strange, but I find reading up on math and statistics to be relaxing when I'm stressed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 On 3/18/2020 at 4:15 AM, Hyett6420 said: There you go, “travel to care for elderly”. It doesnt say “elderly persons” so all our Mooneys count as they are elderly. Also “essential services” is covered as well. Servicing our Mooneys IS essential. there you go, argue that one down in front of Judge Judy! ps Ive got the damn bug, and can tell you its not fun. Im going to try for a walk today, yesterday 200 yards left me short of breath. Andrew I’m so sorry to hear that you have this bug. So far you’re the only person I “know” to have contracted the virus. I have many relatives in northern Italy but none of contracted the virus. They are all quarantining and wearing masks even in their homes. They are much more rural they are all quarantining and wearing masks even in their homes. They all live in the country north of Udine. Most of them fall into the high-risk category age wise. Please keep us posted on your condition. Doubtless you’ll recover quickly with no lasting effects. It would be a great benefit benefit to have a first hand account to cut through the hype and hearsay. Take good care and get well soon! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MooneyMitch Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 A local pilot has determined flying is “essential”. I just heard a small plane, Aeronca I believe, fly over my home. And there ya go ........... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said: A local pilot has determined flying is “essential”. I just heard a small plane, Aeronca I believe, fly over my home. Sometimes it can be essential to maintain a decent mental state! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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