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Sun n Fun in the time of Coronavirus


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Here's what the WHO had to say in respect to mortality rate.  

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of 
COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the 
number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number 
of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually 
well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

In other words, they don't have any idea.  But hey, what does the WHO know 

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8 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

Here's what the WHO had to say in respect to mortality rate.  

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of 
COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the 
number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number 
of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually 
well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

In other words, they don't have any idea.  But hey, what does the WHO know 

I think I agree with you in one thing.  You and I are clearly out of steam in this conversation.  Let us respectfully shake hands - I mean elbow bump, and I defer.

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On 3/14/2020 at 1:19 PM, ragedracer1977 said:

Please don't fear monger.  We have no idea what the mortality rate is.

 

Yes we do. It’s somewhere north of 10x flu CFR.  

Please don’t try to minimize this thing; it’s deadly serious.  You know who the most nervous cohort is?  Physicians.  Listen to us.  This is deadly serious.  Deadly.  Serious.  If you have a single elderly person you care for,  please stop minimizing and start doing.  You don’t have to fear monger or go into panic mode, but you do have to “get on board” or at least keep your doubting voice muted, and actually do all the social distancing things that people who know what they are talking about are recommending. It’s about putting other’s needs who are at risk of dying ahead of our social and economic benefit for a couple of months to make sure that the spread decelerates.  It’s about the most patriotic thing you can do right now.
 

Not a single one of the thousands of healthcare professionals I know, respect and have trained with had stool up and said “hey I don’t get it, what’s the big deal”.  It’s quite the opposite. They are the ones who have a sense of what may come and how ill prepared we are to deal with it. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, bradp said:

Yes we do. It’s somewhere north of 10x flu CFR.  

Please don’t try to minimize this thing; it’s deadly serious.  You know who the most nervous cohort is?  Physicians.  Listen to us.  This is deadly serious.  Deadly.  Serious.  If you have a single elderly person you care for,  please stop minimizing and start doing.  You don’t have to fear monger or go into panic mode, but you do have to “get on board” or at least keep your doubting voice muted, and actually do all the social distancing things that people who know what they are talking about are recommending. It’s about putting other’s needs who are at risk of dying ahead of our social and economic benefit for a couple of months to make sure that the spread decelerates.  It’s about the most patriotic thing you can do right now.
 

Not a single one of the thousands of healthcare professionals I know, respect and have trained with had stool up and said “hey I don’t get it, what’s the big deal”.  It’s quite the opposite. They are the ones who have a sense of what may come and how ill prepared we are to deal with it. 
 

 

Hey, I get it.  I'm on board with the social distancing etc.  

But no, we don't know.  Unless you've got information the CDC, the WHO, etc doesn't have.  

They straight up say they don't know the CFR 

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7 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:

Currently looks like about 4% fatality rate:
5cc36cf2a522e0b6c004764ba0bd0777.png

Compared to diagnosed cases, that’s true.  But we don’t know the denominator of actual cases.  We’re not testing.  The best data out there is from the diamond princess.  It’s no where near that bad.

We’re (and should be) working this containment thing because we don’t know.  

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@ragedracer1977 actual mortality rate will never be a known and always an estimate - the most accurate estimate now will be using the at risk population (360MM).  This will be modified based on population serology studies in the years ahead (estimates for recovered). The CFR is an estimate.  You are correct that we don’t know the denominator.  It really doesn’t matter if patients are overwhelming the ICUs and you have a greater than 10% mortality risk by needing any form of hospitalization, and 40-50% mortality risk if you need ICU care. That’s the practical aspect.  Using the cruise ship data is a useful starting point but the denominator is again confounded by the population you’re studying. Elderly with co-morbidities, poor with no access to healthcare etc  don’t walk on cruise ships.  
 

The early data from China suggest that people who die from this do so in a similar way people die from Ebola - overwhelming inflammation In what’s called macrophage activation syndrome and multiple organ failure. This is what I research.  

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On 3/14/2020 at 8:23 PM, Hank said:

Tht could be Alabama or Georgia when a 1/2" of snow is forecast. No milk, bread or diapers . . . .

The toilet paper thing - is only in part due to people being scared of the pandemic.  In large part it is an old fashioned run on the bank scenario.  People are herding - they are running to the store and buying toilet paper because everyone else is.  People are worried all the tp will be gone and they won't have any and they don't want to be the last ones without tp.

To recall what a run looks like, we should all rewatch "it's a wonderful life" and see the run on the bank scenes with George Bailey and his one saved dollar.  Then substitute Walmart and tp.

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1 hour ago, bradp said:

@ragedracer1977 actual mortality rate will never be a known and always an estimate - the most accurate estimate now will be using the at risk population (360MM).  This will be modified based on population serology studies in the years ahead (estimates for recovered). The CFR is an estimate.  You are correct that we don’t know the denominator.  It really doesn’t matter if patients are overwhelming the ICUs and you have a greater than 10% mortality risk by needing any form of hospitalization, and 40-50% mortality risk if you need ICU care. That’s the practical aspect.  Using the cruise ship data is a useful starting point but the denominator is again confounded by the population you’re studying. Elderly with co-morbidities, poor with no access to healthcare etc  don’t walk on cruise ships.  
 

The early data from China suggest that people who die from this do so in a similar way people die from Ebola - overwhelming inflammation In what’s called macrophage activation syndrome and multiple organ failure. This is what I research.  

Data from S. Korea, with extensive population testing, is showing overall fatality rate < 1%, which is still a lot of people but much less than the 4-5% figures seen from hospitals in Italy. 

Wash your hands a lot, sanitize your work space, stay away from sick people and stay home when you're sick. My wife is coughing a lot this morning . . . .

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12 minutes ago, Hank said:

Data from S. Korea, with extensive population testing, is showing overall fatality rate < 1%, which is still a lot of people but much less than the 4-5% figures seen from hospitals in Italy.

As far as I understand, those two different numbers are not mutually exclusive.  These may be sort of different views of the same reality - the best of times and the worst of times - in South Korea the best we can hope for in the flattened curve, and Italy the worst we might get in the runaway epidemic where many people may simply be dying in large part because they are being trained-denied the critical ICU care they need to survive and the runaway epidemic of more cases.

The surgeon general today declared in a press statement that as of today, our trajectory and numbers is very much in step with where Italy was 2 weeks ago, but he says he believes we can still react and follow the trajectory of South Korea.

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Just now, Hank said:

Data from S. Korea, with extensive population testing, is showing overall fatality rate < 1%, which is still a lot of people but much less than the 4-5% figures seen from hospitals in Italy. 

Wash your hands a lot, sanitize your work space, stay away from sick people and stay home when you're sick. My wife is coughing a lot this morning . . . .

Hank has to do with how extensive the testing is and whether the healthcare system can support the numbers of patients with disease.  
 

Korea - extensive testing   Healthcare system intact  

Italy not as extensive testing. Healthcare system overwhelmed 

image.thumb.jpeg.cbc0606084fd7b1c90b0a44b5d712f96.jpeg

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